Friday, April 17, 2009

Dubai Collapse

This is a long article, that tells a grim story of state sponsored human exploitation that is awful. Of course, the writer has dug up the worst and most dramatic cases but this is still a very bad scene. Systemic abuse of labor is hardly a new innovation and the game is always the same. Recruit the most vulnerable and ill educated who have little capacity to reach out and then grab their passports and put them on starvation wages to keep them tame.

Remember, if you starve an animal long enough, he will follow you like a dog. There are many ways to play that game, but it boils down to a daily shortage of calories and plenty of work to fill your time.

In the meantime, this paradise in the sand was built on wide open funny money loans that all went poof this past few months, The music has stopped and the ex pats are fleeing. Confidence has evaporated.

This state is now going to have to make a living in a world in which available credit has been cut in half and what remains is going to migrate to earning assets. There will be no money for this fantasy on the Gulf for a long time, and pretty soon most of these slaves will be going home, never to return.

Investors have learned once again the horrible reality of real estate. You cannot take it with you. Here that means that half the population will be leaving and never returning and half the space so recently built will stand vacant. Unless the state steps in some way to recover this mess then it will remain like this for decades. No one is going to turn on the funny money game just to help these guys.

What will be left will be a caricature of a great city.

Dubai's Lesson to America: How the Middle East's Shangrai La Became a Hell on Earth By Johann Hari, The Independent. Posted April 16, 2009.

http://www.alternet.org/audits/136877/dubai%27s_lesson_to_america%3A_how_the_middle_east%27s_shangrai_la_became_a_hell_on_earth/?page=entire

Dubai is a living metaphor for the neo-liberal globalized world that may be crashing -- at last -- into history. And the fall has been ugly.

The wide, smiling face of Sheikh Mohammed -- the absolute ruler of Dubai -- beams down on his creation. His image is displayed on every other building, sandwiched between the more familiar corporate rictuses of Ronald McDonald and Colonel Sanders. This man has sold Dubai to the world as the city of One Thousand and One Arabian Lights, a Shangri-La in the Middle East insulated from the dust-storms blasting across the region. He dominates the Manhattan-manqué skyline, beaming out from row after row of glass pyramids and hotels smelted into the shape of piles of golden coins. And there he stands on the tallest building in the world -- a skinny spike, jabbing farther into the sky than any other human construction in history.

But something has flickered in Sheikh Mohammed's smile. The ubiquitous cranes have paused on the skyline, as if stuck in time. There are countless buildings half-finished, seemingly abandoned. In the swankiest new constructions -- like the vast Atlantis hotel, a giant pink castle built in 1,000 days for $1.5bn on its own artificial island -- where rainwater is leaking from the ceilings and the tiles are falling off the roof. This Neverland was built on the Never-Never -- and now the cracks are beginning to show. Suddenly it looks less like Manhattan in the sun than Iceland in the desert.

Once the manic burst of building has stopped and the whirlwind has slowed, the secrets of Dubai are slowly seeping out. This is a city built from nothing in just a few wild decades on credit and ecocide, suppression and slavery. Dubai is a living metal metaphor for the neo-liberal globalised world that may be crashing -- at last -- into history.

I. An Adult Disneyland

Karen Andrews can't speak. Every time she starts to tell her story, she puts her head down and crumples. She is slim and angular and has the faded radiance of the once-rich, even though her clothes are as creased as her forehead. I find her in the car park of one of Dubai's finest international hotels, where she is living, in her Range Rover. She has been sleeping here for months, thanks to the kindness of the Bangladeshi car park attendants who don't have the heart to move her on. This is not where she thought her Dubai dream would end.

Her story comes out in stutters, over four hours. At times, her old voice -- witty and warm -- breaks through. Karen came here from Canada when her husband was offered a job in the senior division of a famous multinational. "When he said Dubai, I said -- if you want me to wear black and quit booze, baby, you've got the wrong girl. But he asked me to give it a chance. And I loved him."

All her worries melted when she touched down in Dubai in 2005. "It was an adult Disneyland, where Sheikh Mohammed is the mouse," she says. "Life was fantastic. You had these amazing big apartments, you had a whole army of your own staff, you pay no taxes at all. It seemed like everyone was a CEO. We were partying the whole time."

Her husband, Daniel, bought two properties. "We were drunk on Dubai," she says. But for the first time in his life, he was beginning to mismanage their finances. "We're not talking huge sums, but he was getting confused. It was so unlike Daniel, I was surprised. We got into a little bit of debt." After a year, she found out why: Daniel was diagnosed with a brain tumour.

One doctor told him he had a year to live; another said it was benign and he'd be okay. But the debts were growing. "Before I came here, I didn't know anything about Dubai law. I assumed if all these big companies come here, it must be pretty like Canada's or any other liberal democracy's," she says. Nobody told her there is no concept of bankruptcy. If you get into debt and you can't pay, you go to prison.

"When we realised that, I sat Daniel down and told him: listen, we need to get out of here. He knew he was guaranteed a pay-off when he resigned, so we said -- right, let's take the pay-off, clear the debt, and go." So Daniel resigned -- but he was given a lower pay-off than his contract suggested. The debt remained. As soon as you quit your job in Dubai, your employer has to inform your bank. If you have any outstanding debts that aren't covered by your savings, then all your accounts are frozen, and you are forbidden to leave the country.

"Suddenly our cards stopped working. We had nothing. We were thrown out of our apartment." Karen can't speak about what happened next for a long time; she is shaking.

Daniel was arrested and taken away on the day of their eviction. It was six days before she could talk to him. "He told me he was put in a cell with another debtor, a Sri Lankan guy who was only 27, who said he couldn't face the shame to his family. Daniel woke up and the boy had swallowed razor-blades. He banged for help, but nobody came, and the boy died in front of him."

Karen managed to beg from her friends for a few weeks, "but it was so humiliating. I've never lived like this. I worked in the fashion industry. I had my own shops. I've never..." She peters out.

Daniel was sentenced to six months' imprisonment at a trial he couldn't understand. It was in Arabic, and there was no translation. "Now I'm here illegally, too," Karen says I've got no money, nothing. I have to last nine months until he's out, somehow." Looking away, almost paralyzed with embarrassment, she asks if I could buy her a meal.

She is not alone. All over the city, there are maxed-out expats sleeping secretly in the sand-dunes or the airport or in their cars.

"The thing you have to understand about Dubai is -- nothing is what it seems," Karen says at last. "Nothing. This isn't a city, it's a con-job. They lure you in telling you it's one thing -- a modern kind of place -- but beneath the surface it's a medieval dictatorship."

II. Tumbleweed

Thirty years ago, almost all of contemporary Dubai was desert, inhabited only by cactuses and tumbleweed and scorpions. But downtown there are traces of the town that once was, buried amidst the metal and glass. In the dusty fort of the Dubai Museum, a sanitised version of this story is told.

In the mid-18th century, a small village was built here, in the lower Persian Gulf, where people would dive for pearls off the coast. It soon began to accumulate a cosmopolitan population washing up from Persia, the Indian subcontinent, and other Arab countries, all hoping to make their fortune. They named it after a local locust, the daba, who consumed everything before it. The town was soon seized by the gunships of the British Empire, who held it by the throat as late as 1971. As they scuttled away, Dubai decided to ally with the six surrounding states and make up the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The British quit, exhausted, just as oil was being discovered, and the sheikhs who suddenly found themselves in charge faced a remarkable dilemma. They were largely illiterate nomads who spent their lives driving camels through the desert -- yet now they had a vast pot of gold. What should they do with it?

Dubai only had a dribble of oil compared to neighbouring Abu Dhabi -- so Sheikh Maktoum decided to use the revenues to build something that would last. Israel used to boast it made the desert bloom; Sheikh Maktoum resolved to make the desert boom. He would build a city to be a centre of tourism and financial services, sucking up cash and talent from across the globe. He invited the world to come tax-free -- and they came in their millions, swamping the local population, who now make up just 5 per cent of Dubai. A city seemed to fall from the sky in just three decades, whole and complete and swelling. They fast-forwarded from the 18th century to the 21st in a single generation.

If you take the Big Bus Tour of Dubai -- the passport to a pre-processed experience of every major city on earth -- you are fed the propaganda-vision of how this happened. "Dubai's motto is 'Open doors, open minds'," the tour guide tells you in clipped tones, before depositing you at the souks to buy camel tea-cosies. "Here you are free. To purchase fabrics," he adds. As you pass each new monumental building, he tells you: "The World Trade Centre was built by His Highness..."

But this is a lie. The sheikh did not build this city. It was built by slaves. They are building it now.

III. Hidden in plain view

There are three different Dubais, all swirling around each other. There are the expats, like Karen; there are the Emiratis, headed by Sheikh Mohammed; and then there is the foreign underclass who built the city, and are trapped here. They are hidden in plain view. You see them everywhere, in dirt-caked blue uniforms, being shouted at by their superiors, like a chain gang -- but you are trained not to look. It is like a mantra: the Sheikh built the city. The Sheikh built the city. Workers? What workers?

Every evening, the hundreds of thousands of young men who build Dubai are bussed from their sites to a vast concrete wasteland an hour out of town, where they are quarantined away. Until a few years ago they were shuttled back and forth on cattle trucks, but the expats complained this was unsightly, so now they are shunted on small metal buses that function like greenhouses in the desert heat. They sweat like sponges being slowly wrung out.

Sonapur is a rubble-strewn patchwork of miles and miles of identical concrete buildings. Some 300,000 men live piled up here, in a place whose name in Hindi means "City of Gold". In the first camp I stop at -- riven with the smell of sewage and sweat -- the men huddle around, eager to tell someone, anyone, what is happening to them.

Sahinal Monir, a slim 24-year-old from the deltas of Bangladesh. "To get you here, they tell you Dubai is heaven. Then you get here and realise it is hell," he says. Four years ago, an employment agent arrived in Sahinal's village in Southern Bangladesh. He told the men of the village that there was a place where they could earn 40,000 takka a month (£400) just for working nine-to-five on construction projects. It was a place where they would be given great accommodation, great food, and treated well. All they had to do was pay an up-front fee of 220,000 takka (£2,300) for the work visa -- a fee they'd pay off in the first six months, easy. So Sahinal sold his family land, and took out a loan from the local lender, to head to this paradise.

As soon as he arrived at Dubai airport, his passport was taken from him by his construction company. He has not seen it since. He was told brusquely that from now on he would be working 14-hour days in the desert heat -- where western tourists are advised not to stay outside for even five minutes in summer, when it hits 55 degrees -- for 500 dirhams a month (£90), less than a quarter of the wage he was promised. If you don't like it, the company told him, go home. "But how can I go home? You have my passport, and I have no money for the ticket," he said. "Well, then you'd better get to work," they replied.

Sahinal was in a panic. His family back home -- his son, daughter, wife and parents -- were waiting for money, excited that their boy had finally made it. But he was going to have to work for more than two years just to pay for the cost of getting here -- and all to earn less than he did in Bangladesh.

He shows me his room. It is a tiny, poky, concrete cell with triple-decker bunk-beds, where he lives with 11 other men. All his belongings are piled onto his bunk: three shirts, a spare pair of trousers, and a cellphone. The room stinks, because the lavatories in the corner of the camp -- holes in the ground -- are backed up with excrement and clouds of black flies. There is no air conditioning or fans, so the heat is "unbearable. You cannot sleep. All you do is sweat and scratch all night." At the height of summer, people sleep on the floor, on the roof, anywhere where they can pray for a moment of breeze.

The water delivered to the camp in huge white containers isn't properly desalinated: it tastes of salt. "It makes us sick, but we have nothing else to drink," he says.

The work is "the worst in the world," he says. "You have to carry 50kg bricks and blocks of cement in the worst heat imaginable ... This heat -- it is like nothing else. You sweat so much you can't pee, not for days or weeks. It's like all the liquid comes out through your skin and you stink. You become dizzy and sick but you aren't allowed to stop, except for an hour in the afternoon. You know if you drop anything or slip, you could die. If you take time off sick, your wages are docked, and you are trapped here even longer."

He is currently working on the 67th floor of a shiny new tower, where he builds upwards, into the sky, into the heat. He doesn't know its name. In his four years here, he has never seen the Dubai of tourist-fame, except as he constructs it floor-by-floor.

Is he angry? He is quiet for a long time. "Here, nobody shows their anger. You can't. You get put in jail for a long time, then deported." Last year, some workers went on strike after they were not given their wages for four months. The Dubai police surrounded their camps with razor-wire and water-cannons and blasted them out and back to work.

The "ringleaders" were imprisoned. I try a different question: does Sohinal regret coming? All the men look down, awkwardly. "How can we think about that? We are trapped. If we start to think about regrets..." He lets the sentence trail off. Eventually, another worker breaks the silence by adding: "I miss my country, my family and my land. We can grow food in Bangladesh. Here, nothing grows. Just oil and buildings."

Since the recession hit, they say, the electricity has been cut off in dozens of the camps, and the men have not been paid for months. Their companies have disappeared with their passports and their pay. "We have been robbed of everything. Even if somehow we get back to Bangladesh, the loan sharks will demand we repay our loans immediately, and when we can't, we'll be sent to prison."

This is all supposed to be illegal. Employers are meant to pay on time, never take your passport, give you breaks in the heat -- but I met nobody who said it happens. Not one. These men are conned into coming and trapped into staying, with the complicity of the Dubai authorities.

Sahinal could well die out here. A British man who used to work on construction projects told me: "There's a huge number of suicides in the camps and on the construction sites, but they're not reported. They're described as 'accidents'." Even then, their families aren't free: they simply inherit the debts. A Human Rights Watch study found there is a "cover-up of the true extent" of deaths from heat exhaustion, overwork and suicide, but the Indian consulate registered 971 deaths of their nationals in 2005 alone. After this figure was leaked, the consulates were told to stop counting.

At night, in the dusk, I sit in the camp with Sohinal and his friends as they scrape together what they have left to buy a cheap bottle of spirits. They down it in one ferocious gulp. "It helps you to feel numb", Sohinal says through a stinging throat. In the distance, the glistening Dubai skyline he built stands, oblivious.

IV. Mauled by the mall

I find myself stumbling in a daze from the camps into the sprawling marble malls that seem to stand on every street in Dubai. It is so hot there is no point building pavements; people gather in these cathedrals of consumerism to bask in the air conditioning. So within a ten minute taxi-ride, I have left Sohinal and I am standing in the middle of Harvey Nichols, being shown a £20,000 taffeta dress by a bored salesgirl. "As you can see, it is cut on the bias..." she says, and I stop writing.

Time doesn't seem to pass in the malls. Days blur with the same electric light, the same shined floors, the same brands I know from home. Here, Dubai is reduced to its component sounds: do-buy. In the most expensive malls I am almost alone, the shops empty and echoing. On the record, everybody tells me business is going fine. Off the record, they look panicky. There is a hat exhibition ahead of the Dubai races, selling elaborate headgear for £1,000 a pop. "Last year, we were packed. Now look," a hat designer tells me. She swoops her arm over a vacant space.

I approach a blonde 17-year-old Dutch girl wandering around in hotpants, oblivious to the swarms of men gaping at her. "I love it here!" she says. "The heat, the malls, the beach!" Does it ever bother you that it's a slave society? She puts her head down, just as Sohinal did. "I try not to see," she says. Even at 17, she has learned not to look, and not to ask; that, she senses, is a transgression too far.

Between the malls, there is nothing but the connecting tissue of asphalt. Every road has at least four lanes; Dubai feels like a motorway punctuated by shopping centres. You only walk anywhere if you are suicidal. The residents of Dubai flit from mall to mall by car or taxis.

How does it feel if this is your country, filled with foreigners? Unlike the expats and the slave class, I can't just approach the native Emiratis to ask questions when I see them wandering around -- the men in cool white robes, the women in sweltering black. If you try, the women blank you, and the men look affronted, and tell you brusquely that Dubai is "fine". So I browse through the Emirati blog-scene and found some typical-sounding young Emiratis. We meet -- where else? -- in the mall.

Ahmed al-Atar is a handsome 23-year-old with a neat, trimmed beard, tailored white robes, and rectangular wire-glasses. He speaks perfect American-English, and quickly shows that he knows London, Los Angeles and Paris better than most westerners. Sitting back in his chair in an identikit Starbucks, he announces: "This is the best place in the world to be young! The government pays for your education up to PhD level. You get given a free house when you get married. You get free healthcare, and if it's not good enough here, they pay for you to go abroad. You don't even have to pay for your phone calls. Almost everyone has a maid, a nanny, and a driver. And we never pay any taxes. Don't you wish you were Emirati?"

I try to raise potential objections to this Panglossian summary, but he leans forward and says: "Look -- my grandfather woke up every day and he would have to fight to get to the well first to get water. When the wells ran dry, they had to have water delivered by camel. They were always hungry and thirsty and desperate for jobs. He limped all his life, because he there was no medical treatment available when he broke his leg. Now look at us!"

For Emiratis, this is a Santa Claus state, handing out goodies while it makes its money elsewhere: through renting out land to foreigners, soft taxes on them like business and airport charges, and the remaining dribble of oil. Most Emiratis, like Ahmed, work for the government, so they're cushioned from the credit crunch. "I haven't felt any effect at all, and nor have my friends," he says. "Your employment is secure. You will only be fired if you do something incredibly bad." The laws are currently being tightened, to make it even more impossible to sack an Emirati.

Sure, the flooding-in of expats can sometimes be "an eyesore", Ahmed says. "But we see the expats as the price we had to pay for this development. How else could we do it? Nobody wants to go back to the days of the desert, the days before everyone came. We went from being like an African country to having an average income per head of $120,000 a year. And we're supposed to complain?"

He says the lack of political freedom is fine by him. "You'll find it very hard to find an Emirati who doesn't support Sheikh Mohammed." Because they're scared? "No, because we really all support him. He's a great leader. Just look!" He smiles and says: "I'm sure my life is very much like yours. We hang out, have a coffee, go to the movies. You'll be in a Pizza Hut or Nando's in London, and at the same time I'll be in one in Dubai," he says, ordering another latte.

But do all young Emiratis see it this way? Can it really be so sunny in the political sands? In the sleek Emirates Tower Hotel, I meet Sultan al-Qassemi. He's a 31-year-old Emirati columnist for the Dubai press and private art collector, with a reputation for being a contrarian liberal, advocating gradual reform. He is wearing Western clothes -- blue jeans and a Ralph Lauren shirt -- and speaks incredibly fast, turning himself into a manic whirr of arguments.

"People here are turning into lazy, overweight babies!" he exclaims. "The nanny state has gone too far. We don't do anything for ourselves! Why don't any of us work for the private sector? Why can't a mother and father look after their own child?" And yet, when I try to bring up the system of slavery that built Dubai, he looks angry. "People should give us credit," he insists. "We are the most tolerant people in the world. Dubai is the only truly international city in the world. Everyone who comes here is treated with respect."

I pause, and think of the vast camps in Sonapur, just a few miles away. Does he even know they exist? He looks irritated. "You know, if there are 30 or 40 cases [of worker abuse] a year, that sounds like a lot but when you think about how many people are here..." Thirty or 40? This abuse is endemic to the system, I say. We're talking about hundreds of thousands.

Sultan is furious. He splutters: "You don't think Mexicans are treated badly in New York City? And how long did it take Britain to treat people well? I could come to London and write about the homeless people on Oxford Street and make your city sound like a terrible place, too! The workers here can leave any time they want! Any Indian can leave, any Asian can leave!"

But they can't, I point out. Their passports are taken away, and their wages are withheld. "Well, I feel bad if that happens, and anybody who does that should be punished. But their embassies should help them." They try. But why do you forbid the workers -- with force -- from going on strike against lousy employers? "Thank God we don't allow that!" he exclaims. "Strikes are in-convenient! They go on the street -- we're not having that. We won't be like France. Imagine a country where they the workers can just stop whenever they want!" So what should the workers do when they are cheated and lied to? "Quit. Leave the country."

I sigh. Sultan is seething now. "People in the West are always complaining about us," he says. Suddenly, he adopts a mock-whiny voice and says, in imitation of these disgusting critics: "Why don't you treat animals better? Why don't you have better shampoo advertising? Why don't you treat labourers better?" It's a revealing order: animals, shampoo, then workers. He becomes more heated, shifting in his seat, jabbing his finger at me. "I gave workers who worked for me safety goggles and special boots, and they didn't want to wear them! It slows them down!"

And then he smiles, coming up with what he sees as his killer argument. "When I see Western journalists criticise us -- don't you realise you're shooting yourself in the foot? The Middle East will be far more dangerous if Dubai fails. Our export isn't oil, it's hope. Poor Egyptians or Libyans or Iranians grow up saying -- I want to go to Dubai. We're very important to the region. We are showing how to be a modern Muslim country. We don't have any fundamentalists here. Europeans shouldn't gloat at our demise. You should be very worried.... Do you know what will happen if this model fails? Dubai will go down the Iranian path, the Islamist path."

Sultan sits back. My arguments have clearly disturbed him; he says in a softer, conciliatory tone, almost pleading: "Listen. My mother used to go to the well and get a bucket of water every morning. On her wedding day, she was given an orange as a gift because she had never eaten one. Two of my brothers died when they were babies because the healthcare system hadn't developed yet. Don't judge us." He says it again, his eyes filled with intensity: "Don't judge us."

V. The Dunkin' Donuts Dissidents

But there is another face to the Emirati minority -- a small huddle of dissidents, trying to shake the Sheikhs out of abusive laws. Next to a Virgin Megastore and a Dunkin' Donuts, with James Blunt's "You're Beautiful" blaring behind me, I meet the Dubai dictatorship's Public Enemy Number One. By way of introduction, Mohammed al-Mansoori says from within his white robes and sinewy face: "Westerners come her and see the malls and the tall buildings and they think that means we are free. But these businesses, these buildings -- who are they for? This is a dictatorship. The royal family think they own the country, and the people are their servants. There is no freedom here."

We snuffle out the only Arabic restaurant in this mall, and he says everything you are banned -- under threat of prison -- from saying in Dubai. Mohammed tells me he was born in Dubai to a fisherman father who taught him one enduring lesson: Never follow the herd. Think for yourself. In the sudden surge of development, Mohammed trained as a lawyer. By the Noughties, he had climbed to the head of the Jurists' Association, an organisation set up to press for Dubai's laws to be consistent with international human rights legislation.

And then -- suddenly -- Mohammed thwacked into the limits of Sheikh Mohammed's tolerance. Horrified by the "system of slavery" his country was being built on, he spoke out to Human Rights Watch and the BBC. "So I was hauled in by the secret police and told: shut up, or you will lose you job, and your children will be unemployable," he says. "But how could I be silent?"

He was stripped of his lawyer's licence and his passport -- becoming yet another person imprisoned in this country. "I have been blacklisted and so have my children. The newspapers are not allowed to write about me."

Why is the state so keen to defend this system of slavery? He offers a prosaic explanation. "Most companies are owned by the government, so they oppose human rights laws because it will reduce their profit margins. It's in their interests that the workers are slaves."

Last time there was a depression, there was a starbust of democracy in Dubai, seized by force from the sheikhs. In the 1930s, the city's merchants banded together against Sheikh Said bin Maktum al-Maktum -- the absolute ruler of his day -- and insisted they be given control over the state finances. It lasted only a few years, before the Sheikh -- with the enthusiastic support of the British -- snuffed them out.

And today? Sheikh Mohammed turned Dubai into Creditopolis, a city built entirely on debt. Dubai owes 107 percent of its entire GDP. It would be bust already, if the neighbouring oil-soaked state of Abu Dhabi hadn't pulled out its chequebook. Mohammed says this will constrict freedom even further. "Now Abu Dhabi calls the tunes -- and they are much more conservative and restrictive than even Dubai. Freedom here will diminish every day." Already, new media laws have been drafted forbidding the press to report on anything that could "damage" Dubai or "its economy". Is this why the newspapers are giving away glossy supplements talking about "encouraging economic indicators"?

Everybody here waves Islamism as the threat somewhere over the horizon, sure to swell if their advice is not followed. Today, every imam is appointed by the government, and every sermon is tightly controlled to keep it moderate. But Mohammed says anxiously: "We don't have Islamism here now, but I think that if you control people and give them no way to express anger, it could rise. People who are told to shut up all the time can just explode."

Later that day, against another identikit-corporate backdrop, I meet another dissident -- Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, Professor of Political Science at Emirates University. His anger focuses not on political reform, but the erosion of Emirati identity. He is famous among the locals, a rare outspoken conductor for their anger. He says somberly: "There has been a rupture here. This is a totally different city to the one I was born in 50 years ago."

He looks around at the shiny floors and Western tourists and says: "What we see now didn't occur in our wildest dreams. We never thought we could be such a success, a trendsetter, a model for other Arab countries. The people of Dubai are mighty proud of their city, and rightly so. And yet..." He shakes his head. "In our hearts, we fear we have built a modern city but we are losing it to all these expats."

Adbulkhaleq says every Emirati of his generation lives with a "psychological trauma." Their hearts are divided -- "between pride on one side, and fear on the other." Just after he says this, a smiling waitress approaches, and asks us what we would like to drink. He orders a Coke.

VI. Dubai Pride

There is one group in Dubai for whom the rhetoric of sudden freedom and liberation rings true -- but it is the very group the government wanted to liberate least: gays.

Beneath a famous international hotel, I clamber down into possibly the only gay club on the Saudi Arabian peninsula. I find a United Nations of tank-tops and bulging biceps, dancing to Kylie, dropping ecstasy, and partying like it's Soho. "Dubai is the best place in the Muslim world for gays!" a 25-year old Emirati with spiked hair says, his arms wrapped around his 31-year old "husband". "We are alive. We can meet. That is more than most Arab gays."

It is illegal to be gay in Dubai, and punishable by 10 years in prison. But the locations of the latest unofficial gay clubs circulate online, and men flock there, seemingly unafraid of the police. "They might bust the club, but they will just disperse us," one of them says. "The police have other things to do."

In every large city, gay people find a way to find each other -- but Dubai has become the clearing-house for the region's homosexuals, a place where they can live in relative safety. Saleh, a lean private in the Saudi Arabian army, has come here for the Coldplay concert, and tells me Dubai is "great" for gays: "In Saudi, it's hard to be straight when you're young. The women are shut away so everyone has gay sex. But they only want to have sex with boys -- 15- to 21-year-olds. I'm 27, so I'm too old now. I need to find real gays, so this is the best place. All Arab gays want to live in Dubai."

With that, Saleh dances off across the dancefloor, towards a Dutch guy with big biceps and a big smile.

VII. The Lifestyle

All the guidebooks call Dubai a "melting pot", but as I trawl across the city, I find that every group here huddles together in its own little ethnic enclave -- and becomes a caricature of itself. One night -- in the heart of this homesick city, tired of the malls and the camps -- I go to Double Decker, a hang-out for British expats. At the entrance there is a red telephone box, and London bus-stop signs. Its wooden interior looks like a cross between a colonial clubhouse in the Raj and an Eighties school disco, with blinking coloured lights and cheese blaring out. As I enter, a girl in a short skirt collapses out of the door onto her back. A guy wearing a pirate hat helps her to her feet, dropping his beer bottle with a paralytic laugh.

I start to talk to two sun-dried women in their sixties who have been getting gently sozzled since midday. "You stay here for The Lifestyle," they say, telling me to take a seat and order some more drinks. All the expats talk about The Lifestyle, but when you ask what it is, they become vague. Ann Wark tries to summarise it: "Here, you go out every night. You'd never do that back home. You see people all the time. It's great. You have lots of free time. You have maids and staff so you don't have to do all that stuff. You party!"

They have been in Dubai for 20 years, and they are happy to explain how the city works. "You've got a hierarchy, haven't you?" Ann says. "It's the Emiratis at the top, then I'd say the British and other Westerners. Then I suppose it's the Filipinos, because they've got a bit more brains than the Indians. Then at the bottom you've got the Indians and all them lot."

They admit, however, they have "never" spoken to an Emirati. Never? "No. They keep themselves to themselves." Yet Dubai has disappointed them. Jules Taylor tells me: "If you have an accident here it's a nightmare. There was a British woman we knew who ran over an Indian guy, and she was locked up for four days! If you have a tiny bit of alcohol on your breath they're all over you. These Indians throw themselves in front of cars, because then their family has to be given blood money -- you know, compensation. But the police just blame us. That poor woman."

A 24-year-old British woman called Hannah Gamble takes a break from the dancefloor to talk to me. "I love the sun and the beach! It's great out here!" she says. Is there anything bad? "Oh yes!" she says. Ah: one of them has noticed, I think with relief. "The banks! When you want to make a transfer you have to fax them. You can't do it online." Anything else? She thinks hard. "The traffic's not very good."

When I ask the British expats how they feel to not be in a democracy, their reaction is always the same. First, they look bemused. Then they look affronted. "It's the Arab way!" an Essex boy shouts at me in response, as he tries to put a pair of comedy antlers on his head while pouring some beer into the mouth of his friend, who is lying on his back on the floor, gurning.

Later, in a hotel bar, I start chatting to a dyspeptic expat American who works in the cosmetics industry and is desperate to get away from these people. She says: "All the people who couldn't succeed in their own countries end up here, and suddenly they're rich and promoted way above their abilities and bragging about how great they are. I've never met so many incompetent people in such senior positions anywhere in the world." She adds: "It's absolutely racist. I had Filipino girls working for me doing the same job as a European girl, and she's paid a quarter of the wages. The people who do the real work are paid next to nothing, while these incompetent managers pay themselves £40,000 a month."

With the exception of her, one theme unites every expat I speak to: their joy at having staff to do the work that would clog their lives up Back Home. Everyone, it seems, has a maid. The maids used to be predominantly Filipino, but with the recession, Filipinos have been judged to be too expensive, so a nice Ethiopian servant girl is the latest fashionable accessory.

It is an open secret that once you hire a maid, you have absolute power over her. You take her passport -- everyone does; you decide when to pay her, and when -- if ever -- she can take a break; and you decide who she talks to. She speaks no Arabic. She cannot escape.

In a Burger King, a Filipino girl tells me it is "terrifying" for her to wander the malls in Dubai because Filipino maids or nannies always sneak away from the family they are with and beg her for help. "They say -- 'Please, I am being held prisoner, they don't let me call home, they make me work every waking hour seven days a week.' At first I would say -- my God, I will tell the consulate, where are you staying? But they never know their address, and the consulate isn't interested. I avoid them now. I keep thinking about a woman who told me she hadn't eaten any fruit in four years. They think I have power because I can walk around on my own, but I'm powerless."

The only hostel for women in Dubai -- a filthy private villa on the brink of being repossessed -- is filled with escaped maids. Mela Matari, a 25-year-old Ethiopian woman with a drooping smile, tells me what happened to her -- and thousands like her. She was promised a paradise in the sands by an agency, so she left her four year-old daughter at home and headed here to earn money for a better future. "But they paid me half what they promised. I was put with an Australian family -- four children -- and Madam made me work from 6am to 1am every day, with no day off. I was exhausted and pleaded for a break, but they just shouted: 'You came here to work, not sleep!' Then one day I just couldn't go on, and Madam beat me. She beat me with her fists and kicked me. My ear still hurts. They wouldn't give me my wages: they said they'd pay me at the end of the two years. What could I do? I didn't know anybody here. I was terrified."

One day, after yet another beating, Mela ran out onto the streets, and asked -- in broken English -- how to find the Ethiopian consulate. After walking for two days, she found it, but they told her she had to get her passport back from Madam. "Well, how could I?" she asks. She has been in this hostel for six months. She has spoken to her daughter twice. "I lost my country, I lost my daughter, I lost everything," she says.

As she says this, I remember a stray sentence I heard back at Double Decker. I asked a British woman called Hermione Frayling what the best thing about Dubai was. "Oh, the servant class!" she trilled. "You do nothing. They'll do anything!"

VIII. The End of The World

The World is empty. It has been abandoned, its continents unfinished. Through binoculars, I think I can glimpse Britain; this sceptred isle barren in the salt-breeze.

Here, off the coast of Dubai, developers have been rebuilding the world. They have constructed artificial islands in the shape of all planet Earth's land masses, and they plan to sell each continent off to be built on. There were rumours that the Beckhams would bid for Britain. But the people who work at the nearby coast say they haven't seen anybody there for months now. "The World is over," a South African suggests.

All over Dubai, crazy projects that were Under Construction are now Under Collapse. They were building an air-conditioned beach here, with cooling pipes running below the sand, so the super-rich didn't singe their toes on their way from towel to sea.

The projects completed just before the global economy crashed look empty and tattered. The Atlantis Hotel was launched last winter in a $20m fin-de-siecle party attended by Robert De Niro, Lindsay Lohan and Lily Allen. Sitting on its own fake island -- shaped, of course, like a palm tree -- it looks like an immense upturned tooth in a faintly decaying mouth. It is pink and turreted -- the architecture of the pharaohs, as reimagined by Zsa-Zsa Gabor. Its Grand Lobby is a monumental dome covered in glitterballs, held up by eight monumental concrete palm trees. Standing in the middle, there is a giant shining glass structure that looks like the intestines of every guest who has ever stayed at the Atlantis. It is unexpectedly raining; water is leaking from the roof, and tiles are falling off.

A South African PR girl shows me around its most coveted rooms, explaining that this is "the greatest luxury offered in the world". We stroll past shops selling £24m diamond rings around a hotel themed on the lost and sunken continent of, yes, Atlantis. There are huge water tanks filled with sharks, which poke around mock-abandoned castles and dumped submarines. There are more than 1,500 rooms here, each with a sea view. The Neptune suite has three floors, and -- I gasp as I see it -- it looks out directly on to the vast shark tank. You lie on the bed, and the sharks stare in at you. In Dubai, you can sleep with the fishes, and survive.

But even the luxury -- reminiscent of a Bond villain's lair -- is also being abandoned. I check myself in for a few nights to the classiest hotel in town, the Park Hyatt. It is the fashionistas' favourite hotel, where Elle Macpherson and Tommy Hilfiger stay, a gorgeous, understated palace. It feels empty. Whenever I eat, I am one of the only people in the restaurant. A staff member tells me in a whisper: "It used to be full here. Now there's hardly anyone." Rattling around, I feel like Jack Nicholson in The Shining, the last man in an abandoned, haunted home.

The most famous hotel in Dubai -- the proud icon of the city -- is the Burj al Arab hotel, sitting on the shore, shaped like a giant glass sailing boat. In the lobby, I start chatting to a couple from London who work in the City. They have been coming to Dubai for 10 years now, and they say they love it. "You never know what you'll find here," he says. "On our last trip, at the beginning of the holiday, our window looked out on the sea. By the end, they'd built an entire island there."

My patience frayed by all this excess, I find myself snapping: doesn't the omnipresent slave class bother you? I hope they misunderstood me, because the woman replied: "That's what we come for! It's great, you can't do anything for yourself!" Her husband chimes in: "When you go to the toilet, they open the door, they turn on the tap -- the only thing they don't do is take it out for you when you have a piss!" And they both fall about laughing.

IX. Taking on the Desert

Dubai is not just a city living beyond its financial means; it is living beyond its ecological means. You stand on a manicured Dubai lawn and watch the sprinklers spray water all around you. You see tourists flocking to swim with dolphins. You wander into a mountain-sized freezer where they have built a ski slope with real snow. And a voice at the back of your head squeaks: this is the desert. This is the most water-stressed place on the planet. How can this be happening? How is it possible?

The very earth is trying to repel Dubai, to dry it up and blow it away. The new Tiger Woods Gold Course needs four million gallons of water to be pumped on to its grounds every day, or it would simply shrivel and disappear on the winds. The city is regularly washed over with dust-storms that fog up the skies and turn the skyline into a blur. When the dust parts, heat burns through. It cooks anything that is not kept constantly, artificially wet.

Dr Mohammed Raouf, the environmental director of the Gulf Research Centre, sounds sombre as he sits in his Dubai office and warns: "This is a desert area, and we are trying to defy its environment. It is very unwise. If you take on the desert, you will lose."

Sheikh Maktoum built his showcase city in a place with no useable water. None. There is no surface water, very little acquifer, and among the lowest rainfall in the world. So Dubai drinks the sea. The Emirates' water is stripped of salt in vast desalination plants around the Gulf -- making it the most expensive water on earth. It costs more than petrol to produce, and belches vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as it goes. It's the main reason why a resident of Dubai has the biggest average carbon footprint of any human being -- more than double that of an American.

If a recession turns into depression, Dr Raouf believes Dubai could run out of water. "At the moment, we have financial reserves that cover bringing so much water to the middle of the desert. But if we had lower revenues -- if, say, the world shifts to a source of energy other than oil..." he shakes his head. "We will have a very big problem. Water is the main source of life. It would be a catastrophe. Dubai only has enough water to last us a week. There's almost no storage. We don't know what will happen if our supplies falter. It would be hard to survive."

Global warming, he adds, makes the problem even worse. "We are building all these artificial islands, but if the sea level rises, they will be gone, and we will lose a lot. Developers keep saying it's all fine, they've taken it into consideration, but I'm not so sure."

Is the Dubai government concerned about any of this? "There isn't much interest in these problems," he says sadly. But just to stand still, the average resident of Dubai needs three times more water than the average human. In the looming century of water stresses and a transition away from fossil fuels, Dubai is uniquely vulnerable.

I wanted to understand how the government of Dubai will react, so I decided to look at how it has dealt with an environmental problem that already exists -- the pollution of its beaches. One woman -- an American, working at one of the big hotels -- had written in a lot of online forums arguing that it was bad and getting worse, so I called her to arrange a meeting. "I can't talk to you," she said sternly. Not even if it's off the record? "I can't talk to you." But I don't have to disclose your name... "You're not listening. This phone is bugged. I can't talk to you," she snapped, and hung up.

The next day I turned up at her office. "If you reveal my identity, I'll be sent on the first plane out of this city," she said, before beginning to nervously pace the shore with me. "It started like this. We began to get complaints from people using the beach. The water looked and smelled odd, and they were starting to get sick after going into it. So I wrote to the ministers of health and tourism and expected to hear back immediately -- but there was nothing. Silence. I hand-delivered the letters. Still nothing."

The water quality got worse and worse. The guests started to spot raw sewage, condoms, and used sanitary towels floating in the sea. So the hotel ordered its own water analyses from a professional company. "They told us it was full of fecal matter and bacteria 'too numerous to count'. I had to start telling guests not to go in the water, and since they'd come on a beach holiday, as you can imagine, they were pretty pissed off." She began to make angry posts on the expat discussion forums -- and people began to figure out what was happening. Dubai had expanded so fast its sewage treatment facilities couldn't keep up. The sewage disposal trucks had to queue for three or four days at the treatment plants -- so instead, they were simply drilling open the manholes and dumping the untreated sewage down them, so it flowed straight to the sea.

Suddenly, it was an open secret -- and the municipal authorities finally acknowledged the problem. They said they would fine the truckers. But the water quality didn't improve: it became black and stank. "It's got chemicals in it. I don't know what they are. But this stuff is toxic."

She continued to complain -- and started to receive anonymous phone calls. "Stop embarassing Dubai, or your visa will be cancelled and you're out," they said. She says: "The expats are terrified to talk about anything. One critical comment in the newspapers and they deport you. So what am I supposed to do? Now the water is worse than ever. People are getting really sick. Eye infections, ear infections, stomach infections, rashes. Look at it!" There is faeces floating on the beach, in the shadow of one of Dubai's most famous hotels.

"What I learnt about Dubai is that the authorities don't give a toss about the environment," she says, standing in the stench. "They're pumping toxins into the sea, their main tourist attraction, for God's sake. If there are environmental problems in the future, I can tell you now how they will deal with them -- deny it's happening, cover it up, and carry on until it's a total disaster." As she speaks, a dust-storm blows around us, as the desert tries, slowly, insistently, to take back its land.

X. Fake Plastic Trees

On my final night in the Dubai Disneyland, I stop off on my way to the airport, at a Pizza Hut that sits at the side of one of the city's endless, wide, gaping roads. It is identical to the one near my apartment in London in every respect, even the vomit-coloured decor. My mind is whirring and distracted. Perhaps Dubai disturbed me so much, I am thinking, because here, the entire global supply chain is condensed. Many of my goods are made by semi-enslaved populations desperate for a chance 2,000 miles away; is the only difference that here, they are merely two miles away, and you sometimes get to glimpse their faces? Dubai is Market Fundamentalist Globalisation in One City.

I ask the Filipino girl behind the counter if she likes it here. "It's OK," she says cautiously. Really? I say. I can't stand it. She sighs with relief and says: "This is the most terrible place! I hate it! I was here for months before I realised -- everything in Dubai is fake. Everything you see. The trees are fake, the workers' contracts are fake, the islands are fake, the smiles are fake -- even the water is fake!" But she is trapped, she says. She got into debt to come here, and she is stuck for three years: an old story now. "I think Dubai is like an oasis. It is an illusion, not real. You think you have seen water in the distance, but you get close and you only get a mouthful of sand."

As she says this, another customer enters. She forces her face into the broad, empty Dubai smile and says: "And how may I help you tonight, sir?"

OPEC Notes Demand Chill

We are getting hard numbers reflecting the contraction of oil demand over the past several months. You can also be certain that a lot of the recent demand has come from inventory restocking around the world because you may be sure that oil at $150 caused such inventories to be minimized. Right now they have had enough time to be maximized again.

The full effects of this recession have not been fully felt yet. Global job losses have been massive and that demand is simply not as elastic as one would think. It will take time to restore. In the meantime global production continues to falter as the historic fields progressively weaken.

On the supply front, the only good news is from Canada were shipments recently hit 2,500,000 barrels a day. For a number of good reasons, I am expecting this number to hit 5,000,000 barrels a lot easier than anyone presently expects.

As posted last year we needed to reduce demand in the short term. It has been done through a price shock. If we transition to a supply shock driven environment, then demand will need to be suppressed through rationing. I consider the advent of rationing as a high probability near term event and likely to kick in as global economic demand begins rising again.

It needs to be noted that we have begun transitioning to a global oil market that will optimize at less than 50,000,000 barrels per day from the present 85,000,000 barrels per day which will be sustainable for possibly centuries.

The USA will retool its economy around a secure oil budget half of what it presently uses and all of which will come from NAFTA. This is feasible inside of the next decade.

OPEC sees 'devastating contraction' in oil demand

by Staff WritersVienna (AFP) April 15, 2009
OPEC on Wednesday again revised down its estimate for world crude demand, predicting that a "devastating contraction" in consumption would keep prices under pressure in the months ahead.

"In the coming months, the market is expected to remain under pressure from uncertainties in the economic outlook, demand deterioration and the substantial overhang in supply," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wrote in its latest monthly report.

It said "vigilant monitoring is essential" ahead of the cartel's next meeting at the end of May at which some members are expected to push for further output cuts to help support prices.

"Oil demand is suffering more and more from the world economic recession," it said, adding that this trend had resulted in another downward revision in its forecast for demand this year of 0.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

OPEC estimated that demand would contract by 1.37 million bpd or 1.6 percent in 2009.

In its previous monthly bulletin released in March, OPEC had been penciling in a contraction of 1.01 million bpd for 2009.
"World oil demand is already out of its high demand seasonality achieving nothing but devastating contraction," OPEC said.

Even China, where oil demand grew by five percent last year, was seeing a drop in consumption.
"On a quarterly basis, China's apparent oil demand in the first quarter dipped in the red for the first time since the last quarter of 2005," OPEC said.

Earlier this week, Iran's OPEC minister, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, had suggested the cartel could cut oil production again if global demand for crude continues to fall in the near future.

"If demand continues to fall until the next meeting of OPEC, a further output cut is possible," Khatibi was quoted as saying by Iranian daily Hamshahri.

OPEC's next meeting is in Vienna on May 28.

OPEC has reduced its oil production target by an overall 4.2 million barrels per day since September to 24.84 million bpd, the lowest level since just after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

On Sunday, Iran's Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said the reductions adopted by OPEC up to now had helped stop prices from falling further in the past few months.

Iran, OPEC's second largest crude producer, favours a global oil price of between 75 and 80 dollars a barrel.

Oil prices hit a peak above 147 dollars in July last year but have fluctuated this year between 40 and 55 dollars.

OPEC has said it sees 75 dollars as the price at which
investment in exploration and production becomes profitable.

On Wednesday, world oil prices were up as
traders eyed a fresh supply disruption in crude producer Nigeria ahead of the weekly energy stocks report in key consumer the United States.

London's Brent North Sea crude for May delivery added 60 cents to 52.56 dollars per barrel.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, rose 68 cents to 50.09 dollars a barrel.

A fire at a key Shell pipeline in volatile southern Nigeria has led to a production loss of 180,000 barrels a day involving a range of companies, an industry source said Wednesday.

The loss includes 130,000 barrels per day for Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell, 30,000 barrels for French group Total and another 20,000 barrels from various other operators, the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Obama Administration Going Nuclear

I have it on good intelligence that the Obama administration is preparing to aggressively promote a major expansion of America’s nuclear energy capacity as the quickest way to fast track the huge amounts of fresh grid energy needed to supply the rapidly advancing conversion to the electric car. We certainly need the energy. The one technology that can handle a crash building program is nuclear. No other technology can provide pure grid energy as ideally suited to the automobile demand profile.

Recall that a plant cranks out the same energy whatever the time of day. This provides a massive surplus during the off hours. These are the same hours that a car needs to recharge. In other words we have a match almost made in heaven. Far more importantly, it can be delivered now. All other energy options will also participate but as occasional displacement options.

In the event, Obama, a president most sensitive to optics than any for a very long time accepted campaign funds from industry players for the past five years. He certainly made up his mind on this issue a long time ago.

There may be another option that I would also pursue actively but that is not what matters today. Nuclear power can deliver today provided the regulatory process is fast tracked. We are after all merely building out multiple clones of long established designs.

Because of the urgency of pending energy demand, we can announcements on this sooner than later.



Since 2003, executives and employees of Exelon, which is based in Illinois, have contributed at least $227,000 to Mr. Obama’s campaigns for the United States Senate and for president. Two top Exelon officials, Frank M. Clark, executive vice president, and John W. Rogers Jr., a director, are among his largest fund-raisers.

Another Obama donor, John W. Rowe, chairman of Exelon, is also chairman of the Nuclear Energy Institute, the nuclear power industry’s lobbying group, based in Washington. Exelon’s support for Mr. Obama far exceeds its support for any other presidential candidate.

In addition, Mr. Obama’s chief political strategist, David Axelrod, has worked as a consultant to Exelon. A spokeswoman for Exelon said Mr. Axelrod’s company had helped an Exelon subsidiary, Commonwealth Edison, with communications strategy periodically since 2002, but had no involvement in the leak controversy or other nuclear issues.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Bone Healing Halved

The incredible promise of stem cell therapy is been slowly realized. This is also surely the royal road for managing osteoporosis. That disease may well be a deficiency of stem cell stimulation particularly since it is known that regular exercise helps reverse the disease. Physical exercise always strengthens bones.

All we know from this is that serendipity stepped in and showed us a valuable pathway. Speeding bone healing is always a good thing and doing it for the aged will save lives and reduce suffering big time.

Recent work using stem cells to fabricate heart tissue on a framework shows us were this is all going.

We can anticipate the insertion into the body of a replacement organ or even bone using a collagen framework that is then bathed with appropriate stem cells. They are doing just that in the lab and we will shortly be trying it out on humans.

Thus we can expect surgery to be reduced to the removal of tissue and shaping of the insertion area before a replacement collagen framework is placed in the areas. Stem cells then rebuild a natural organ in that location.
We can also expect major scar tissue to quietly become a thing of the past.

The convincing experiments have been undertaken over the past year and I am expecting to see plenty of more reports.

By the way, I do not think it has happened yet. But what I have just described successfully applied to cases in which nerves are damaged or destroyed means the end of permanent disability, an amazing economic health benefit.

I would say that it is not too much to ask that by 2020, that all mechanical damage conditions will be curable. And since the human organism is good for about one hundred years at least, a lot of folks alive today will join a rising cohort of centenarians.

April 14, 2009
Astute observations led a team of clinicians and researchers to uncover how this drug can also boost our bodies' bone stem cell production to the point that adults' bones appear to have the ability to heal at a rate typically seen when they were young kids.

"The decreased healing time is significant, especially when fractures are in hard-to-heal areas like the pelvis and the spine, where you can't easily immobilize the bone - and stop the pain," Bukata added. "Typically, a pelvic fracture will take months to heal, and people are in extreme pain for the first eight to 12 weeks. This [healing] time was more than cut in half; we saw complete pain relief, callus formation, and stability of the fracture in people who had fractures that up to that point had not healed."

When a fracture occurs, a bone becomes unstable and can move back and forth creating a painful phenomenon known as micromotion. As the bone begins healing it must progress through specific, well-defined stages. First, osteoclasts - cells that can break down bone - clean up any fragments or debris produced during the break. Next, a layer of cartilage - called a callus - forms around the fracture that ultimately calcifies, preventing the bony ends from moving, providing relief from the significant pain brought on by micromotion.

Only after the callus is calcified do the bone forming cells - osteoblasts - begin their work. They replace the cartilage with true bone, and eventually reform the fracture to match the shape and structure of the bone into what it was before the break.

According to Puzas, teriparatide significantly speeds up fracture healing by changing the behavior and number of the cartilage and the bone stem cells involved in the process.
"Teriparatide dramatically stimulates the bone's stem cells into action," Puzas said. "As a result, the callus forms quicker and stronger. Osteoblasts form more bone and the micromotion associated with the fracture is more rapidly eliminated. All of this activity explains why people with non-healing fractures can now return to normal function sooner."

I had patients with severe osteoporosis, in tremendous pain from multiple fractures throughout their spine and pelvis, who I would put on teriparatide," said Bukata. "When they would come back for their follow-up visits three months later, it was amazing to see not just the significant healing in their fractures, but to realize they were pain-free - a new and welcome experience for many of these patients."
Bukata began prescribing teriparatide to patients with non-healing fractures, and was amazed at her findings: 93 percent showed significant healing and pain control after being on teriparatide for only eight to 12 weeks. And in the lab, Puzas began to understand how teriparatide stimulates bone stem cells into action.

Subsistence Solar Heater

This is not particularly new technology but it is perhaps getting the marketing boost it needs. I also think that we can count on modern communications to keep the interest up in the natural market areas.

The value of this device is to displace a lot of charcoal out of the heating market. The device itself is up to the task of producing boiled water and that means hot beverages and also the production of stews. It may not seem like a lot, but if you are dependent on charcoal, that is most of your cooking energy on a given day A frugal cook is likely to be able to reduce charcoal use several fold.

Stripping forests for charcoal at the subsistence level that we are dealing with is never well done and is often unsustainable. We talk about the goats clearing of the forests of the Sahara. Before the goats finished the job, I am sure humanity hacked down the brush and trees for charcoal. It all goes on as if nothing has changed even today.

This is an incredibly simple device easily fabricated, packaged and shipped to the customers. Let us hope that this is enough to get it into the market place.

$6.60 Solar Cooker Wins Financial Times Climate Change Contest
Written by Megan Treacy
Thursday, 09 April 2009

In a beautiful marriage of high function and very low cost, a $6.60 solar cooker called the Kyoto Box won the Financial Times Climate Change Contest and $75,000 from Hewlett-Packard to get the idea into production.

The
Kyoto Box is made from insulating two cardboard boxes, one stacked inside the other, with straw or newspaper, placing foil inside the first box and then painting the inside of the second box black. An acrylic cover tops off the design.

The very simple and cheap design is already being produced in Nairobi and the maker Jon Bøhner hopes that it will cut down on the use of firewood for cooking, which would slow deforestation and reduce carbon emissions and indoor pollution throughout Africa. The box can boil 10 liters of water in two hours for cooking or for purifying.

Other simple designs that made it to the final round of the contest include a garlic-based feed supplement that would reduce the methane in cow "emissions" and a wheel cover for delivery trucks that would boost efficiency by decreasing drag.

Pending Global Population Decline

This story has been below the radar for a number of years, but will certainly begin to rise into public awareness. A significant decline in human population is beginning and will make itself felt for the rest of the century. Public response has been meager because is has not been particularly obvious and because the memories of the past scare over overpopulation are still fresh.

The causes are supposedly many but actually are singular. The modern economy has made child rearing as an enterprise unprofitable to the parents. The modern economy is an expansion of the classic urban economy and that economy also was historically unprofitable in terms of child rearing. Lack of birth control failed to even offset internal urban losses in the non modern era. Today, birth control makes it a more purely economic decision.

Right now, the only modern polity able to sustain demographic breakeven has been the USA. The reasons for that are also many, but not yet obviously economic, which suggests that it would take little for the numbers to also drop below breakeven.

The continuing impact of global economic growth is that half the global population will achieve middle class status over the next twenty years. The remaining half will do exactly the same thing over the next twenty years. This means an end to mass migration as a supply of population to aging areas. Just as today we see few German or Italian young immigrates, in forty years we will be seeing few immigrates at all.

Obviously this is an untenable situation, unless you believe the earth should be depopulated. I personally have come to the conclusion that a population of thirty billion would serve the Earth best because it would support turning the deserts of Africa and Asia into productive climate moderating farm and forest lands. Yes we can create a ecological heaven on Earth, but we need human beings to make it happen. Those human beings need to be integrated with the land also in a way that modern economics has militated against.

My own personal vision includes integrating modern apartment housing and urban services with an agricultural complex with interlocking duties between the two. Most importantly, all child rearing is integrated with such a complex providing an economic framework that allows the child to begin early as a productive member while also providing a cooperative economic model for child rearing that permits both parents to work while having a healthy family life that is not a financial burden per se.

In a way this is a combination of deurbanization and social and economic engineering. The natural result should be a stable and if desirous, an expanding population.

Population Decline – Good or Bad for Envirnoment?
Going Down - Is too few people the new "population problem"?

http://www.grist.org/news/maindish/2005/12/14/wendling/index.html?source=daily

By Mike Wendling
14 Dec 2005
Alston wants your women.

And not just any old hags, either -- residents of this northern English town would prefer strapping young things who aren't afraid to get dirty. "Quite frankly, old people are not going to give us the vitality that we need," says Vince Peart, the cheerful if lovelorn spokesperson for the town's matchmaking campaign. "We're looking for young people who will work."

The area around Alston, a hamlet perched in the Pennine mountains, was once home to 20,000 people. Nowadays it's closer to 2,000. While Peart's booty call has proved to be a headline-grabbing move, he admits it's not just women the town is lacking. Warm bodies of all sorts are in short supply.

Peart is trying to keep positive as he crisscrosses Britain on a double-headed mission to lobby politicians on rural issues and get dates for his buddies. He and other lonely Alstonites should take heart, though: they're really not alone. Around the world, a demographic shift is under way, with people having fewer children. The resulting population decrease could -- more than hybrid cars or wind farms or policy shifts -- be our best hope for the salvation of the planet. Eventually.

Less Is More, More or Less

The little attention given to shrinking populations tends to focus on Europe. Among the nations with the lowest fertility levels in the world are relatively rich countries like Italy and Spain, but they are matched by still-developing Eastern European nations like Romania and Ukraine. Even the continent's comparatively lusty countries, such as France and Ireland, are only cranking out an average of 1.8 children per woman -- well below the "replacement level" of 2.1 that's needed to sustain current population levels.

Populations are declining in seven of the 25 European Union member countries, and the trend will continue. According to Eurostat [PDF], the E.U.'s pocket-protector brigade, population numbers will rise gradually over the next two decades to about 470 million, thanks mainly to immigration, before falling by 20 million people by mid-century, when immigration will no longer be able to offset rising death rates and falling birthrates. Germany alone is projected to lose 8 million by 2050, a drop of nearly 10 percent from its present population of 82.5 million -- that's a loss roughly equal to the populations of its five biggest cities combined.

This trend isn't brand-new; in fact, Oxford demographer David Coleman dates declining birthrates in Europe to the social-welfare state that began in the 1930s. In a society veering away from agriculture, he points out, children were no longer worth it, in hard economic terms. Other explanations for falling birthrates include women's rights, increasing female participation in the workforce, and birth-control programs.

Outside Europe, a notable trend toward depopulation is also occurring in Japan, where the fertility rate has fallen in recent years. The government estimates that by 2050 there will be 25 million fewer Japanese -- that's like saying goodbye to one-fifth of the current population, or all of greater Tokyo.

But the real surprise may be that birthrates are falling even in developing nations. Throughout the developing world, the U.N. says, people are having fewer babies -- an average of fewer than three per woman -- and 20 developing countries have fertility levels below the 2.1 replacement level. China's policies, including the notorious one-child rule, have driven its birthrate from 5.9 in the 1970s to sub-replacement level. An even larger decrease -- the fastest ever recorded -- occurred in Iran, which dropped from seven births per woman in the early '80s to around the replacement level today.

So is this good news for those concerned about crowding and consumption? Well, here's where it gets a bit tricky. Even though birthrates are falling, we're decades away from feeling the effects. According to the U.N.'s best guess, anyone still kicking in 50 years will be sharing the world with about 9 billion others. Even where birthrates are below replacement level, populations continue to grow -- there's a time lag before the effects of declining birthrates are felt. For instance, one estimate projects that China will still add 260 million people by 2025.

Immigration and urbanization also create a sort of demographic microwave, leaving some areas ice cold and others blisteringly hot. In much of Europe and Japan, while rural areas are emptying out and birthrates are plunging, cities are coping with an influx of newcomers. For every amusing feature about a town like Alston, there's a corresponding news flash about thousands of Eastern Europeans moving to the U.K. In Rome, squatters are angry about spiraling housing costs caused by overcrowding. Meanwhile, in the former East Germany, where a sagging economy and the ease of migration to the West are compounding downward population trends, they're chopping up old communist apartment blocks to make nice low-density family homes -- that is, if concrete can ever be considered either nice or low-density.

But still, the big picture is getting smaller. After 2050, the U.N.'s medium-scenario estimates say the world will grow more slowly, hitting a peak of about 10 billion people in 2200 before stabilizing or entering a period of slow decline. This involves a huge amount of guesswork -- we're talking about estimating the number of children born to parents who aren't yet born themselves -- but the ultra-long-term trends are down.

Crave New World

This may be bad news if you sell cradles or run a mommy podcast, but environmentalists could have cause for celebration. In Europe, some of the effects are
already being felt. "The decline in population is opening room for species that have been pushed back by humans," says Reiner Klingholz of the Berlin Institute for Population Development. "We're seeing an increase in animals such as wolves and deer.

"In [eastern] Germany, for example, you have old buildings, houses, factories, railway lines, and so forth where nature has taken over," he adds. "In places where there was nothing but humans and industry, now you have birds nesting in the rafters and foxes lurking around."

And fewer people could also benefit -- well, people. Oxford environmentalist and population expert Norman Myers says a smaller population is a more sustainable one. A drop in numbers could lead to a drop in energy use -- think fewer cars on the road, fewer power plants, smaller towns -- which bodes well for the climate. "This is something to be applauded solely because the sooner we move to declining populations, the less strain we place on the environment," Myers says, "and the better off we'll be."

But let's put the champagne and condoms on ice for a moment. Shifting populations bring their own set of concerns. For instance, Europe's population is still rising -- but four-fifths of that increase is due to immigration. Since new arrivals tend to be shunted into low-wage jobs, some demographers warn that European societies could fissure into two castes: childless Brahmins and the foreign underclasses who serve coffee, sweep streets, and shell out taxes to support them.

On top of that, a declining population is an aging one. And in an aging society, says Philip Longman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and author of The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It, "gray competes with green." Older people tend to have more disposable income, and thus tend to consume more. They use more housing units per person than families, swelling their environmental footprint. And ultimately, says Longman, "aging societies will face budgetary pressures" -- think Social Security and other pension plans -- "that will leave less resources available for investment in cleaner energy, conservation, remediation, mass transit, and all other environmentally friendly goods."

Could the environmental dream of zero population growth be a nightmare? Some think so. I ask Vince Peart if he sees any benefit to undercrowding. He thinks for a moment -- long enough for a few Alston old-timers to drop off -- but can't come up with an answer. There aren't more trees around or more native species to admire in his town. Perversely, the cost of living is going up as city people snap up second homes in the area. And the weekenders don't tend to support local businesses. Finally, he just says, "We're at risk of turning into something of a ghost town, a tourist attraction."

The Incredible Shrinking Debate

With the global population zooming upward, it's hard to drum up much talk about future depopulation. And even those you might expect to be excited at the prospect aren't talking about it much, because advocating smaller populations isn't very ... sexy. Groups like Greenpeace and Oxfam, which once championed population control, now barely mention it, according to David Nicholson-Lord of the Optimum Population Trust. He says progressives haven't been able to blend commitments to reproductive choice with sustainability, so raising the banner for population control has been left up to a few lonely voices on the left and, on the other end of the spectrum, the anti-immigration right.

"I think [population control] is deeply unfashionable, and taboo, and has fallen off of a lot of agendas -- and that's due partly to that broad agenda known as political correctness," Nicholson-Lord says. "It's seen as the wrong diagnosis and also as disempowering ... it has a bad name, and unfairly, I think."

Nicholson-Lord and his trust embrace positions that would make most liberals queasy, like zero net immigration for the U.K. He argues that more groups should concern themselves with such issues, since the environmental benefits of a lower population are just too high -- and the world's environmental problems too urgent -- to push for anything less. "We have to think seriously about the world's population," he says, "and about what kind of levels can be sustained in the long term."

If anybody running Europe is doing this type of pondering, they're not saying. In the playground of public policy, population decrease is seen as a problem, not an opportunity. Several countries, including France and Estonia, offer generous pro-family benefits, while others, including Britain, Italy, Belgium, and Germany, are tinkering with their retirement systems to keep older residents working longer. But in debates over pensions and child and family benefits, serious discussion about proper population levels doesn't really happen.

And there's the challenge. The issue of population, once a key part of the green agenda, is today limited to a few demographers, think-tankers, and wonks. If countries can manage with fewer people, and even turn depopulation into an environmental benefit, we could be onto something big. Political tussles over whether to cut emissions or pursue clean technologies might seem as quaint and empty as a pub in Alston. But before that happens, we'll have to start talking about it again.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Stem Cell Advance for Diabetes

When stem cell therapy first arrived, it looked like the maiden’s prayer for sufferers of diabetics. Mother Nature was just not that accommodating. It has taken all this time to begin to see real progress on a number of stem cell fronts and only lately has the news began to land thick and fast.

Here we have a stem cell based therapy that actually delays substantially the onset of type 1 diabetes. Not a cure but still a major win.

I suspect every family has been touched by diabetes. This has become epidemic , not just because of eating abuse but also we are all living that extra ten years denied our parents. Just quitting smoking is allowing a huge number of folks to experience the joys of diabetes.

Actually solving this disease will have a huge repercussion throughout the health system.

I suspect that just as 90% of men at sixty and 90% of women at seventy have heart disease, they are also incipient diabetics and need to fend it of.

Apr 14, 2009

Diabetics insulin-free after stem-cell transplants

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=diabetics-insulin-free-after-stem-c-2009-04-14&sc=CAT_HLTH_20090414

Patients recently diagnosed with type 1
diabetes who received transplants of their own immune stem cells were able to go without insulin injections for nearly five years after the procedure, scientists report today.

In
type 1 diabetes, the immune system attacks islet cells in the pancreas that the body depends on to make insulin, a hormone that converts glucose into energy. Treatment typically includes injections or infusions of insulin. Now, research in the new Journal of the American Medical Association shows that the transplant technique — autologous nonmyeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, in which a patient is infused with immune system stem cells from his or her own blood — enabled 20 of 23 recipients to thrive without insulin injections for up to 58 months. Twelve were able to stay off insulin continuously, while the rest had to periodically receive treatment.

The scientists, from Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and the School of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto in Sao Paulo, Brazil,
reported in 2007 that the transplant patients were able to stay insulin-free for as long as a year and a half. At that time, critics wondered if the effect was genuine or reflected a kind of "honeymoon period" following the procedure.

The new research measured levels of C-peptides, a protein made by the same islet cells that manufacture insulin and that's considered a marker of the hormone. Two to three years after the transplants, patients had markedly higher C-peptide levels, suggesting that the transplant had effectively "re-set" their immune systems not to attack their islet cells, study co-author
Richard Burt, chief of the division of immunotherapy at Northwestern, tells ScientificAmerican.com. Their ability to stay off insulin, he says, is "clearly an effect of the cells recovering and producing insulin, not just some honeymoon period or diet or exercise."

The procedure would likely work only within three months of patients being diagnosed with type 1 diabetes, before their immune systems have destroyed all of their insulin-producing islet cells, Burt says. The next step is proving that the technique — which Burt says could cost up to $90,000 — works in a randomized controlled trial.

Because patients were transplanted with their own cells, they didn’t have to take anti-rejection drugs that other transplant recipients are prescribed to prevent them from reacting new cells. Side effects of the transplant included temporary hair loss, nausea, fever and sterility in some of the patients who had already gone through puberty. (Patients ages 13-31 and mostly male underwent transplants.) Younger patients who undergo the transplants in the future might be told to bank their sperm as a precaution, Burt says.

Scientists are also studying whether
islet-cell transplants would effectively treat diabetes. That procedure would involve infusing a patient with a deceased donor's islet cells. Because those cells would come from another person, islet cell transplantation would require recipients to take anti-rejection drugs.

Boudreaux On Scottish Enlightenment

Two snippets here are a good reminder that the fundamental engine of the economy is the human dynamo reacting with his fellows and some how creating wealth. Attempting to construct an economic framework on those foundations is a little like laying foundations on the beach. It looks pretty, but everyone soon discovers you are out of your mind.

A conservative is a person who has made economic plans, organized great manipulations and the like and lo, has discovered it was all founded on the sands of human dynamics over which control is impossible.

A liberal is one who has eschewed great plans and manipulations and retains a childlike faith in economic edifices peddled by soothsayers. He is merely in need of experience, and fairly, this is exactly why it is unusual for a true liberal ever to be given access to power. All sense the simple lack of experience.

It is nice to be reminded of the impact of the Scottish enlightenment which still echoes today. For those who do not know, a bunch of Scottish Calvinists about 1700 took it in their minds that every plowboy needed to learn to read and write so as to participate fully in the study of the bible. This created a wave of demand for knowledge that caused a blossoming of the Scottish Universities and inspired the creation of the modern curriculum. Out of all this came Adam Smith and and David Hume and James Watt and all that. Now you know who to blame for lifting our ancestors out of peonage and creating the process that is obviously continuing to this day.

More Enlightement from Adam Smith (by Don Boudreaux)

Posted: 13 Apr 2009 11:33 AM PDT

Here's a letter that I sent yesterday to the Times of London:

American conservatives have their own reasons for opposing Barack Obama's gigantic agenda ("
Right's rage at overbearing Obama," April 12). Some of these reasons are more sensible than others. But I offer here a deeper reason to worry about Mr. Obama's hyperactivity; it is a reason identified exactly 250 years ago by Adam Smith in his first book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments:

That wisdom which contrived the system of human affections, as well as that of every other part of nature, seems to have judged that the interest of the great society of mankind would be best promoted by directing the principal attention of each individual to that particular portion of it, which was most within the sphere both of his abilities and of his understanding.*

No person, regardless of I.Q. or office, can possibly possess more than an infinitesimal amount of the knowledge of reality necessary for the successful carrying out of 'plans' such as those offered by Mr. Obama. Society best advances when each of us is free to pursue our own individual goals in our own ways, with government doing no more than protecting each of us from the predations and officious ambitions of others.It is preposterous to suppose that Mr. Obama (or anyone else) can know enough to oversee the automobile industry and the banking industry, to lead the creation of "green jobs," to remake medical-care provision, and to do any of the other ambitious tasks on his agenda. Each of those matters is light years outside of "the sphere both of his abilities and of his understanding."

Sincerely,Donald J. Boudreaux

* Adam Smith,
The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Indianapolis: Liberty Press, 1976 [1759]), p. 375.

On the Scottish Enlightenment (by Don Boudreaux)

Posted: 13 Apr 2009 09:43 AM PDT

Here's a letter that I sent recently to the Wall Street Journal:

Bravo to the letter writers who challenge Thomas Frank's denigration of "eighteenth-century man" (
Letters, April 11). The 18th century gave us history's most momentous advance in the social sciences. I speak here of the Scottish Enlightenment, led by David Hume and Adam Smith. These thinkers were the first fully to grasp the fact that complex and productive social order emerges from - and can emerge only from - millions upon millions of individual actions of countless persons, each of whom aims to achieve only very localized goals. These Enlightened Scots taught us not only that a peaceful and productive society requires no great planner or overseer, but also that efforts to enthrone any such planner or overseer inevitably lead to poverty and tyranny.

Alas, far too many twenty-first century men, such as Mr. Frank, remain insufficiently astute to learn this lesson.

Solar Croissants

Even NASA could not resist the obvious lead line. We are actually beginning to map the ‘fine structure’ of the solar system and we are making rather exciting and unexpected discoveries. The stuff we are seeing is dramatic in space but it appears that the planets are well up to brushing all this activity aside. Think of it as an expanded view of the northern lights. We all know that it will not affect anyone but the show is great.

In the end we will end up mapping the magnetism throughout the solar system because it will matter in terms of eventual navigation that takes advantage of magnetic field strength. See my article on the reverse engineering of the UFO.

Anyway, do run the NASA movie showing the croissant forming. At least it isn’t smoke rings.

The Surprising Shape of Solar Storms

April 14, 2009: This just in: The Sun is blasting the solar system with croissants.

Researchers studying data from NASA's twin STEREO probes have found that ferocious solar storms called CMEs (coronal mass ejections) are shaped like a French pastry. The elegance and simplicity of the new "croissant model" is expected to dramatically improve forecasts of severe space weather.

"We believe we can now predict when a CME will hit Earth with only 3-hours of uncertainty," says Angelos Vourlidas of the Naval Research Lab, who helped develop the model. "That's a four-fold improvement over older methods."

Coronal mass ejections are billion-ton clouds of hot magnetized gas that explode away from the sun at speeds topping a million mph. Sometimes the clouds make a beeline for Earth and when they hit they can cause geomagnetic storms, satellite outages, auroras, and power blackouts. The ability to predict the speed and trajectory of a CME is key to space weather forecasting.

"This is an important advance," says Lika Guhathakurta, STEREO program scientist at NASA headquarters in Washington DC. "From a distance, CMEs appear to be a complicated and varied population.

What we have discovered is that they are not so varied after all. Almost all of the 40-plus CMEs we have studied so far with STEREO have a common shape--akin to a croissant."

Thousands of CMEs have been observed by NASA and European Space Agency spacecraft, but until now their common shape was unknown. That's because in the past observations were made from only a single point of view. The STEREO mission has the advantage of numbers. It consists of two probes that flank the sun and photograph explosions from opposite sides. STEREO's sensitive wide-field cameras can track CMEs over a wider area of sky than any other spacecraft, following the progress of the storm all the way from the sun to the orbit of Earth.

"STEREO has done what no previous mission could," notes Guhathakurta.

Vourlidas says he is not surprised that CMEs resemble French pastries. "I have suspected this all along. The croissant shape is a natural result of twisted magnetic fields on the sun and is predicted by a majority of theoretical models."

He offers the following analogy: Take a length of rope and hold one end in each hand. Start twisting the ends in opposite directions. Twist, twist and continue twisting until the middle of the rope is a fat knotted mess.

"That's how CMEs get started—as twisted ropes of solar magnetism. When the energy in the twist reaches some threshold, there is an explosion which expels the CME away from the sun. It looks like a croissant because the twisted ropes are fat in the middle and thin on the ends."







http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/3dcme/avourlidas_vid_03.mov
Right: A computer model of a croissant-shaped CME. Models like this can be rapidly fit to real CMEs as soon as they are observed, allowing forecasters to accurately estimate the speed and trajectory of the storms: movie. Credit: NASA.
The shape alone, however, does not tell the full story of a CME. The contents of the CME must be considered, too. How much plasma does it contain? What is the orientation and strength of its internal magnetic field? When a CME strikes, the havoc it causes will depend on the answers—answers the croissant model does not yet provide.
"There is more work to do. We must learn to look at a CME and not only trace its shape, but also inventory in contents," says Guhathakurta. "We are halfway there."
Eventually, the quest to learn what lies inside the croissant will be taken up by other spacecraft such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory, slated to launch in August 2009, and Solar Probe+, a daring mission (still on the drawing board) to fly close to the sun and actually enter these storms near their source.
STEREO isn't finished, though. The two probes are continuing their journeys to opposite sides of the sun for a 24/7, 360-degree view of the star. Along the way, they'll actually run into a few CMEs and have the chance to sample the 'croissants' in situ.
Stay tuned for updates.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Geological CO2 Sequestration

This is a good update on the topic of direct underground sequestration of CO2. Enough data and thinking has now percolated through to inform us that if we chose, that we sequester as much CO2 as we like. This was likely true, for anyone with some knowledge of geology, but it still needed field practice to fully confirm. We are seeing this here.

It is not my favorite way of CO2 disposal, but it is cheap and quick. I would far sooner see the same CO2 sequestered by the expedient of subsidizing the production of biochar worldwide because that process manufactures wealth that could also be shared by the folks doing the sequestering.

In any event, we can see that point sources of massive CO2 production can presumably compress and separate the CO2 into a pumpable product that can be injected into the ground. The trouble is, is that we produce only a little CO2 so conveniently. House hold heating and automotive use will always need to dump into the atmosphere.

It also entails a parallel pipeline type gathering system mirroring the distribution system. This will occur in only special cases. In the case described in the article it is a case of reservoir CO2 been separated and been reinjected. That is good practice but is certainly a special case.

Atmospheric CO2 vastly exceeds these types of cases and will need to be offset by methods that directly gather it back from the atmosphere. Converting corn stover into biochar is one neat way to do this,


April 8, 2009

Storing the Carbon in Fossil Fuels Where It Came from: Deep Underground
Burying greenhouse gas may be the only way to avoid a climate change catastrophe

By
David Biello
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=storing-fossil-fuel-carbon-deep-underground&sc=DD_20090409
Editor's Note: This is the third in a series of five features on carbon capture and storage, running daily from April 6 to April 10, 2009.

For more than a decade, Norwegian oil company Statoil Hydro has been stripping
climate change–causing carbon dioxide (CO2) from natural gas in its Sleipner West field and burying it beneath the seabed rather than venting it into the atmosphere.

The company estimates that since 1996 it has stored more than 10 million-plus metric tons of CO2 some 3,300 feet (1,000 meters) down in the sandstone formation from which it came—and all of it has
stayed put, which means storage may be the simplest part of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) challenge.

The basics of carbon dioxide storage are simple: the same Utsira sandstone formation that has stored the natural gas for millions of years can serve to trap the CO2, explains Olav Kaarstad, CCS adviser at Statoil. An 800-foot (250-meter) thick band of sandstone—porous, crumbly
rock that traps the gas in the minute spaces between its particles—is covered by relatively impermeable 650-foot (200-meter) thick layer of shale and mudstone (think: hardened clay). "We aren't really much worried about the integrity of the seal and whether the CO2 will stay down there over many hundreds of years," Kaarstad says.

The company monitors its storage through periodic seismic testing, a process that is not unlike a
sonogram through the earth, says hydrologist Sally Benson, director of the global climate and energy project at Stanford University. That monitoring indicates that between 1996 and this past March, the liquid CO2 has spread to occupy some three square kilometers, just 0.0001 percent of the area available for such storage.

"We're not going into a salt cavern, we're not going into an underground river. We're going into microscopic holes," explains geologist Susan Hovorka of the University of Texas at Austin, who has worked on
pilot projects in the U.S. "Add it up and it's a large volume" of storage space.

How large? The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) estimates that the U.S. alone has storage available for 3,911 billion metric tons of CO2 in the form of geologic reservoirs of permeable sandstones or deep saline aquifers, according to a
2008 DoE atlas. These reservoirs are more than enough for the 3.2 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted every year by the roughly 1,700 large industrial sources in the country. Most of that storage is near where the majority of coal in the U.S. is burned: the Midwest, Southeast and West. "There are at least 100 years of CO2 sequestration capacity and probably significantly more," Benson says.
The storage seems to be long-term as well; the sequestered CO2 doesn't just sit in the rock waiting for a chance to escape. Over decades it forms carbonate minerals with the surrounding rock, or it dissolves into the brine that shares the pore space, Hovorka notes. In fact, when she tried to pump CO2 out of her test site south of Dayton, Tex. using natural gas extraction techniques, the attempts failed completely.


According to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), which issued a special report on CCS in 2005, a properly selected site should securely store at least 99 percent of the sequestered CO2 for more than 1,000 years. James Dooley, a senior research scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and an IPCC lead author, considers that to be a reachable goal. "If it took all that energy to shove [the CO2] into that sandstone, it's going to take a lot of energy to get it out," he notes. "Like an oil field, where we get out half or less of the original oil in place, a lot of the CO2 gets stuck in there. It's immobilized in the rock."


Encouraged by the success of the
Sleipner project, Statoil recently began another CO2 injection program at the Snohvit natural gas field in the Barents Sea, despite the requirement that they build a 95-mile (150-kilometer) pipeline on the seabed to pump the CO2 to where it can be sequestered.


And since 2005, oil giant BP and its partners (including Statoil) in the
In Salah gas field in Algeria have been stripping the nine billion cubic meters of natural gas produced there annually of the 10 percent carbon dioxide it contains and pumping a million metric tons of liquid CO2 back into the underlying saline aquifer through three additional wells at a cost of $100 million.


BP uses a variety of techniques, including satellite monitoring, to observe the impact of the CO2 storage (and natural gas removal). Whereas some areas sank by roughly 0.24 inch (six millimeters) as natural gas was extracted, near the CO2 injection wells the land rose by some 0.39 inch (10 millimeters), according to Gardiner Hill, manager of technology and engineering for CCS at BP's alternative energy arm.


"The gas has been down there about 20 million years so we know [the reservoir] has integrity," he says. The DoE's
National Energy Technology Laboratory is also working on developing appropriate monitoring, verification and accounting technologies.


BP and Statoil are not doing these CCS projects for charity, of course. A Norwegian government tax on carbon of roughly $50 per metric ton inspired the
CO2 sequestration at Sleipner and Snohvit. "It costs a fraction of the tax," Kaarstad says. "We are actually making money out of this."


Both Statoil and BP foresee more money-making CO2 storage opportunities. Hill notes that if CCS is deployed on a very large scale, society will need the expertise of the oil industry—its "100 years of understanding the subsurface," he says. "We would expect the experience we are building through this to position BP to take advantage of any future business."


"My one prediction is that this is going to be a very big industry, storing CO2 underground but transporting it, as well," Kaarstad adds. "It's not going to happen overnight, but it will probably be as big as natural gas after a few decades."