Chinese population Stats

 

Chinese population Stats

Hi folks. Back at it after a holiday break.

I came across an item on utube challenging the official population stats from China.  The author makes the specific claim that todays numbers show an 500,000,000 overcount since 1980.  And those numbers in 1980 may also be inflated.  His key point though is that China's population was around one billion or more likely much lower and that india came in around 800,000,000.  The obvious point though is that they were similar and may well have been the same.

what matters is that India did nothing and is arriving at a poulation now of around 1,500,000,000.  At almost no time except just recently has fertility fallen below replacement.  During this entire period, the CCP has enforced a one child policy in no uncertain terms. We even know this from the crying and winging it produced.  that was never faked.

Thus for over forty years, we have had an imposed fertility rate around 1.1 at best while india got 2,? all through it.  Obviously it is impossible for the Chinese population to keep pace with India.

Simple indicated calculations tell us that the Chinese population is overstated by 500,000,000.  worse, is that all those young people who built the chinese economy over the past forty years are retired right now.  They were also replaced on a one for two basis as well.

China's real population could even be as low as 600,000,000 though a near one billion count seems secure..  my big take home here is that all those mothers are now past child bearing and it is their offrspring who we are relying on and their head count is under half the original cohort.

however you  write this story, China's poulation is going to lose the original cohort over the next three decades and their replacements will struggle to replace half of the losses.  my take home is that Chinas real population must converge on 600,000,000 or less as the stats are properly sorted out.

My real surprise is that we have been lied to in terms of fundamental population statistics for a long time and likely going back into Mao's era.  They certainly had ample motive then and never gave it up.  and so long as the pre one child population was about, population collapse could never be visible.

at the same time rapid modernization of agriculture released manpower into the urban complexes to maintain staffing levels.  This happened to us as well, but over a much longer time frame.

.