Friday, April 25, 2014

Simplest Scenario for MH370

I am presenting here a completely freshly worked out scenario for the loss of the Malaysian flight MH370.  [  Statement as to sources not for public consumption ]  Please observe that the only thing that I am changing from other scenarios is that I am directing attention to the copilot.

Firstly the plane is down and no one survived at all.
Secondly, the proper focus is actually the copilot and not the Captain.
Thirdly, we do not understand motive but that may never be discovered outside of speculation.  The reality is that he committed suicide in a deliberate fashion while ensuring respect for his skill.

Supporting this scenario is the remarkable fact that both the pilot and copilot apparently maintained a flight simulator at home as well as the flight engineer.  This is odd in the extreme actually.  Good mental health almost dictates that you conduct down time without the massive stimulation of the work environment.  Thus I suspect that this is strongly indicative of a low level manic depressive behavior pattern.  Much more important it also allows for the simulation of the steps that he took to produce the desired result.   You will shortly notice that this was necessary.

Fundamentally, he had to do one thing only to seize control of the aircraft.  That was to wait for the pilot to leave the cabin and to then lock him out.  From that point on it was truly his aircraft.

He then put on his air supply kit, pulled the master breaker to eliminate transponders and other devices that could interfere, and in some way breached the air seal holding air in the cabin.  This may well have been done by direct means well planned in advance within the cabin itself.  Whatever the method it required earlier planning and evidence of this preparation may well be discoverable.

He then took the plane rapidly upward to the top of its ceiling to speed air evacuation and to completely incapacitate everyone.  The angle of attack would have made getting to the cabin door impossible.  Then he dove down to a low elevation that placed the craft well below radar capture.  In either event, it would have been impossible for the pilot or passengers to do anything except attempt to hang on.  Then lack of oxygen caused everyone to pass out.

From that point on, he was already on a heading toward the south Indian Ocean.  He still had to fly through monitored airspace and this is where the simulator work comes in.  He had to make the right turns to move around and under radar arcs.  He intended to leave a deep mystery and make it difficult to find the plane itself. He has so far succeeded.

This scenario eliminates a lot of difficulties with other the scenarios and clearly absolves the Captain.  Both the Captain and the copilot had effective capability in terms of position but only the copilot had the best default scenario in which his Captain could be counted on to briefly at least leave the cabin even if it was to go to the washroom after a long duty cycle.  The event happened immediately cruising altitude was reached and radio handoff done.  That is precisely when the captain could leave his station.

Since the plane then flew for an additional four hours, it seems certain that the black box has over written its recording of earlier events and will provide no useful data.  
Unless the plane remained partially intact we will never be able to confirm who was in the cabin and that did happen.

Big Development in Search for Missing Malaysia Flight: It May Have Landed Somewhere Else

Apr. 22, 2014 8:38am Liz Klimas

The search for the missing Malaysian Airlines plane could change course again as nothing has turned up in weeks of searching the Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia.

According to the Malaysian newspaper the New Strait Times, investigators are revisiting the possibility that MH370, which carried 239 people and went missing on March 8, crash landed elsewhere.

Malaysia Airline flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and carrying 239 onboard was reported missing after the crew failed to check in as scheduled while flying over waters between Malaysia and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. (ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)

The search initially focused on the eastern coast of Malaysian and Vietnam, where the plane was last tracked by aviation authorities. As more information came to light, the search centered on the southern Indian Ocean. Despite turning up any debris, the search in this area, which includes up to 11 aircraft, 12 ships and an underwater robotic submarine, will continue for now. Poor weather conditions this week could limit these efforts.

But New Strait Times reported that the investigation team for the case based in Kuala Lumpur is looking into other possibilities as well.
“We may have to regroup soon to look into this possibility if no positive results come back in the next few days … but at the same time, the search mission in the Indian Ocean must go on,” a source on the investigation team told the newspaper.  “The thought of it landing somewhere else is not impossible, as we have not found a single debris that could be linked to MH370.”

In this handout image provided by Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Defence, Phoenix Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) Bluefin-21 is craned over the side of Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield in the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 on April 14, 2014. Twenty-six nations have been involved in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 since it disappeared more than a month ago. (Image source: Getty Images)

The source added that the thought that it landed in a specific country where it is being hidden and has not been found by one of the more than 20 nations searching for it “seems absurd.” This source said that it is more plausible that it would have crashed in a remote location.

Though it has been well over a month since the Boeing 777 vanished without a trace, Americans are still particularly interested in the case.

According to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center conducted April 3-6, the missing plane remained the top news story in the U.S., with 33 percent of people saying they followed it over a deadly shooting at Fort Hood Army base, developments related to Ukraine and President Obama’s health care overhaul. That is down from 39 percent in the previous March questionnaire, when nearly half of those asked said they thought the hunt for MH370 was being given the right amount of coverage.

“I find myself drawn into watching or reading about it because it has taken on seemingly mythic worldwide importance,” Paul Mones, an attorney from Portland, Oregon wrote in an email. “In this modern world we simply refuse to accept that something so concrete can get so out of our physical reach and understanding. … People just refuse to concede that the cause of the disaster will likely forever remain unknown.”

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