Thursday, October 7, 2010

Russians Predict Coldest Winter in 1000 Years

Firstly, this is the first reference that I have seen to this at all and there is no sign of this story anywhere else as yet.  On top of that the story itself does not give sources  which is troublesome.

So for all that, I also do not agree with the conclusion made from the purported evidence, but that is an issue of interpretation.

First of, if such slowing has taken place in the Gulf Stream, then it is reasonable that it has been charted over many years and it should be in publishable form for all to review. I really need to see that to feel comfortable with just the datum itself.

Now let us take this datum at face value.  A sharply slowing gulf Stream does not necessarily imply that less heat is been delivered as counter intuitive as that may seem.  What is driving the Gulf Stream is centripetal force and that is a constant.  It can not stop unless we figure out how to halt the Earth’s spin.  That then implies that a velocity varies inversely as to actual volume entrained.  Larger volume implies an increased heat delivery into the Arctic on the surface were it will do the most good.

This may well still mean a locally colder winter for secondary reasons as was experienced last winter while the Arctic itself continues to warm a also happened.  Recall that a particularly stormy winter needs surplus heat to load the atmosphere with moisture to turn into nasty storms.  If all this does not make you feel totally confused, you are not alone.

Remember that the ocean gyres are constrained and they neither grow or shrink appreciatively and can adjust anyway in the dimension of depth.  The real question becomes how variation in apparent current speed changes surface heat content of the Gulf Stream and total availability of heat into the Arctic.

So far the evidence that I have seen supports an accelerating warming of the Arctic and I see no reason to think that has changed.  During the long Bronze Age optimum the Stream was apparently two degrees warmer!  This occurred because the Arctic sea ice was so diminished that the Arctic itself warmed enough to allow the warming of the Stream.  So far I have good reason to think we may be going there and it has nothing to do with anything except current flow changes we do not understand as yet.

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

Published 04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.
The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.
So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.
“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”

In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.
Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.
Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.

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