Friday, November 14, 2008

Chris Nelder on IEA report

This is a report on the IEA report by Chris Nelder.

Read and weep. These folks over at IEA backpedalled this pending disaster for the past several years. Now they are backpedalling their way out of the corner.

George Bush’s greatest historical failure will be his inertness in face of this. It was no secret. I personally figured that markets and oil were heading for a crisis toward the middle to late 2008 as much as four years ago. The only question was whether he could wiggle out of office soon enough.

Had he followed Arnie’s lead and pushed hard to commence the national shift over to LNG, we would be in position to handle the pending oil supply crisis. I suspect Arnie tried to get his attention.

We are now going to have a crash program not unlike the transition to a wartime economy. It feels like it already.

A global oil rationing authority is coming with a price lock around $70 to $100 dollars per barrel. That is high enough to maximize investment effort and encourage replacement with alternatives.

It will also bring THAI/CAPRI oil production expansion as fast as possible since their cost structure will drop toward thirty dollars per barrel.

We cannot transfer energy at a higher level without destroying the customers as the Saudi’s learned in the seventies.

No one has calculated in the impact of THAI/CAPRI as yet. A production well pair can be put on line and producing a thousand BPD in perhaps twelve months. It will at least be building up to that level by then. That means a thousand drill rigs can likely build out thousands of such pairs inside of a year. It is within our capacity to expand heavy oil production by several millions of barrels over the next several years just in Alberta.

In crisis, the same technology will add millions more around the globe.

The fixes are there and are known. We just need recognition and support to see it through as quickly as can be.

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