I got this list of stories for the last few weeks from the news letter put out by Marc Morano. The chorus of challenges to Global Warming orthodoxy is becoming large and loud as everyone is now chipping in. Obviously a lot of folks were never very comfortable with the extraordinary claims drawn from the not so unusual warming cycle that rose from the late seventies through the late nineties, plateaued through 2007 and has now done a dramatic reversal.
I have already posted that we are likely in for a lousy winter and so far so good. Ontario now sounds like the place I grew up in during the fifties.
In fact the tenor of these items is becoming loud and strident. Some very serious people have finally got up their courage to join in with the other skeptics in calling for the end of the global warming hysteria. And right now, it is looking very convincing that a thirty year warm period has nicely ended and we are now been subjected to the beginnings of a thirty year cold spell.
I suggested last winter that a reasonable interpretation of the events of 2007 was that surplus heat had been delivered into the Arctic as reflected be the unusual wind system and strong reduction in sea ice. The mechanism of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation fills out the fine structure. It seems reasonable that a build up of heat in the Northern Hemisphere slowly shifts or enlarges the heat over the Pacific over many years and is likely linked to the heat retention of the sea itself. It finally discharges into the Arctic and this is the first time it has been properly observed.
Once the heat is well discharged, more normal conditions set in. In fact, we were left last winter wondering why it had cooled so abruptly. This winter is promising to be much worse.
As usual our politicians are still selling the global warming party line while their tame scientists are sneaking into cover.
We did learn that the global heat engine is not up to the job of clearing the Arctic of summer sea ice any time soon. We can expect a major rebuilding beginning this coming summer. And to achieve Bronze Age conditions, it is necessary to establish Bronze Age plant cover in the Sahara.
There are just too many individual reports here that it is hardly useful to comment on them separately. So much for the acclaimed consensus trumpeted by IPCC. And recently IPCC erroneously republished September’s data as for October while announcing a new record high. This is obviously their turn to look like idiots with a rookie mistake.
‘Planet Has Cooled Since Bush Took Office’ – Scientists Continue Dissenting – Gore Admits 'I've failed badly' - Global Sea Ice GROWS!
Global Warming Theory has ‘failed consistently and dramatically’
- By Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center where he received NASA's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, and currently principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville) Excerpt: New papers Debunk Warming Fears: The first paper showed how none of 18 IPCC climate models, in over 1,000 years of global warming simulations, ever exhibits the negative feedback we have measured from global satellite data. The second paper revealed new satellite evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Earth's radiative balance by an amount that, when put into a simple climate model, can explain 75% of global warming over the 20th Century....including the slight cooling between 1940 and 1980. Since our previous publications have been basically censored by the news media, and I have now experienced scientific censorship (which I suppose was long overdue), I have decided to take my message to the people in a second book. In anticipation of trouble getting these papers published, I had already started the book awhile back...it is now about 80% finished, heavily illustrated. The working title is: The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists. My book agent is currently scouting for publishers.
UK Astrophysicist: Global Warming Theory has ‘failed consistently and dramatically’ - October 28, 2008
- By Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, founder of the UK based long-term solar forecast group Weather Action and creator of the solar-particle based "Solar Weather Technique" of long range weather forecasting.
Excerpt: Global Warming is over and Global Warming Theory has failed. There is no evidence that CO2 drives world temperatures or any consequent Climate Change. According to Official data in every year since 1998 world Temperatures have been colder than that year yet CO2 has been rising rapidly. The rate of decline of world temperature has got more rapid since 2002; and Arctic ice has increased in the last year : ( Including maps of ice extent: Arctic ice increasing rapidly also see Increase by nearly a half million square miles) The UN IPCC predictions from 2000 have failed consistently and dramatically.
Global Sea Ice Growing at Fastest Pace on Record -- Returns to Levels from the 1980s – Daily Tech – November 7, 2008
Excerpt: When asked about the goal of his movie "An Inconvenient Truth"--to wake people up to an approaching global, environmental crisis-Gore said "I think it's been a failure . . . I feel, in a sense, that I've failed badly."
(By Physicist Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton, is a fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the Royal Society of London.)
Excerpt: Mr. Dyson had an argument anyway with the scores of people (like Al Gore) who weren’t present to defend their belief in the dire consequences of global warming. (“There’s no accounting for human folly,” Mr. Dyson said when asked about Mr. Gore’s Nobel Prize.)
– (By Geologist Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Emeritus Professor at Western Washington University, who has authored eight books and 150 journal publications.)
Excerpt: Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain. Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle. A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely.
Excerpt: A detailed analysis of black carbon -- the residue of burned organic matter -- in computer climate models suggests that those models may be overestimating global warming predictions. A new Cornell study, published online in Nature Geosciences, quantified the amount of black carbon in Australian soils and found that there was far more than expected, said Johannes Lehmann, the paper's lead author and a Cornell professor of biogeochemistry. The survey was the largest of black carbon ever published. […] The findings are significant because soils are by far the world's largest source of carbon dioxide, producing 10 times more carbon dioxide each year than all the carbon dioxide emissions from human activities combined. Small changes in how carbon emissions from soils are estimated, therefore, can have a large impact. […] "But this particular aspect, black carbon's stability in soil, if incorporated in climate models, would actually decrease climate predictions."
'Life-long liberal Democrat' Meteorologist rejects 'fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming' -
By Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry
Excerpt: s a scientist and life-long liberal Democrat, I find the constant regurgitation of the anecdotal, fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming to be a disservice to science, to your readers, and to the quality of the political dialogue leading up to the election. […] The global warming alarmists don't even bother with data! All they have are half-baked computer models that are totally out of touch with reality and have already been proven to be false.
Ski Paradise: ‘Snow-vember’ Sees Ski Resorts Open Early Around The World – November 17, 2008
By Professor Dr. William J.R. Alexander, Emeritus of the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering at the University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters.
Excerpt: Have you not noticed the growing opposition by African countries to interference in our affairs by the old colonial powers? […] The WWF and Greenpeace are not welcome in this country. Nor are the activities of their South African lackeys. […] Your vigorous pro-environmental, anti-social actions will soon be seen as pressures by a small, affluent white community who have no concern at all for South Africa’s large and growing, economically disadvantaged black communities. […] Many thanks for all those emails urging me to continue exposing this whole climate alarmism issue for what it is.
Africa to pay for Europe's "green policies"
Excerpt: Campaigns to buy locally produced food and travel to local destinations particularly hit out against African products. Consumers in Europe are again growing more environmentally conscious and are willing to use their purchasing power to assist in what is widely seen as our era's most pressing problems - the overspending of energy and global warming. Meanwhile, European politicians have been those pressuring strongest to gain support for the Kyoto Protocol while having totally failed to lower emissions of climate gases in their own countries. In every country, emissions have steadily increased.
Another Dissenter: Atmospheric Scientist says ‘growing number of scientists’ are skeptical of warming fears! – November 20, 2008
Dr. James Koermer, a meteorology professor at Plymouth State University presentation it titled “Inconvenient Science."
Excerpt: Kevin McGuire, a fellow professor at PSU, said Koermer's presentation was "very well done." "I agree that there are a lot of uncertainties," McGuire said about the causes and nature of global climate change. […] During a presentation at the university on Wednesday, Koermer explained why there are a growing number scientists, such as himself, who don't subscribe to the popular theory on global warming. […]Koermer said just because he doesn't think man-made carbon dioxide is contributing significantly to climate change, it does not mean he is opposed to the increased use of renewable fuel sources. […] "Over millions of years there have been periods when we have been hotter than we are today," Koermer said. He added that while humans do have an impact on the climate, it is minimal compared to natural phenomena. He also said that humans are not the biggest producers of carbon dioxide and that the gas is not the most abundant green house gas in the atmosphere. That title goes to water vapor, which is produced by the world's oceans.
Another Dissenter: Astrophysicist says put IPCC reports ‘in the trash!’ – - November 20, 2008
"What I'd do with the IPCC report is to put it in the trash can because that's all it's worth," said Dennis Hollars, who holds a doctorate in astrophysics from New Mexico State University.His brazen pronouncement produced an eruption of laughter among the packed audience. Hollars produced a similar reaction from the crowd when, challenged by Gershenson about the inconsistencies of the data in the graphs he was presenting, he claimed to "not care" which one was accurate. […] Hollars, meanwhile, claimed that carbon dioxide was an insignificant component of the earth's atmosphere and that, rather than being the purveyor of doom it is currently viewed as today, it is needed in order for plants to grow.
Another Dissenter: Meteorologist Declares ‘CO2 has never led to an increase in temperature’ - November 20, 2008 (By Dr. Dr Jim Sprott, OBE, MSc, PhD, FNZIC, a consulting chemist and forensic scientist of Auckland.)
Excerpt:. John Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama, has done studies on climate models and says they are extremely limited tools in trying to mimic what happens in nature. He said they are unable to reproduce all of the naturally occurring influences and, as a result, give a false picture of what might be causing changes in the environment. […] "Just 1,000 years ago the Arctic was much warmer than it is today so it's interesting that they would use the term conclusively," he said. "Natural variability can account for warming since the Arctic has been warmer before."
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5htM3_ClgqhzIoMceRWnwQvMvQIqwWhy the EPA should find against “Endangerment” – November 19, 2008
Excerpt: The IPCC’s AR4 was published in the spring of 2007, but to meet the deadline for inclusion in the AR4, scientific papers had to be published by late 2005/early 2006. So, in the rapidly evolving field of climate change, by grounding its TSD in the IPCC AR4 the EPA is largely relying on scientific findings that are, by late 2008, nearly 3 years out of date. And a lot has happened in those intervening three years. • Global temperatures have declined…
Physicist predicts man-made global warming fear bubble to burst in 2008 – November 16, 2008 - Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen, an MIT educated physicist, author of the book An Introduction to High-Temperature Superconductivity, and writer of the popular newspaper column "Ask the Everyday Scientist."
UK Scientist: – ‘Climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables’ Not Just CO2!
By UK Professor Emeritus of Biogeography Philip Stott of the University of London
Excerpt: As I have said, over and over again, the fundamental point has always been this: climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables, and the very idea that we can manage climate change predictably by understanding and manipulating at the margins one politically-selected factor is as misguided as it gets.
Excerpt: 'We can't think of any other cause, it must be us' - This is the depth to which scientific research into climate change has sunk, like a kind of prehistoric civilisation that blames thunderstorms, earthquakes and volcanoes on humanity somehow having "upset the gods". A Canadian study has concluded that we must be causing climate change because nothing else can explain it.
[ Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center where he received NASA's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, is currently principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. ] Spencer Excerpt: I find it astounding that the IPCC has ignored the potential role of natural climate variability in global warming. In any other realm of science we are careful to look for alternative explanations for some phenomenon…but today, mankind is the only allowable reason for climate change. I predict that the IPCC experience will end up being the worst case of scientific malpractice in history.
MIT Climate Scientist Exposes ‘Corrupted Science’ in Devastating Critique - Sep 24, 2008
Excerpt: So, given that August was the first month since 1913 in which no sunspot activity was recorded -- none -- and during which solar winds were at a 50-year low, he was not surprised that Brazilians were suffering (for them) a brutal cold snap. "This is no coincidence," he said as he scoffed at the notion that manmade carbon emissions had more impact than the sun and oceans on global climate.
UK scientist: ‘Green’ totalitarianism promotes 1984 style tactics - By Philip Stott, emeritus professor of biogeography, University of London.
Excerpt: In the eight years since the Kyoto Protocol was first introduced, there has been a revolution in climate change science. What we have learned is that many of the scientific assumptions underlying Kyoto are false. Climate is not naturally constant and global warming is not evidence of human interference,” he insists. “Climate change, including global warming and cooling, is perfectly normal.” Patterson contends that the sun is the reason why the 20th century has experienced some of the hottest temperatures in recent history. “My own research shows that, on all time scales, there is a very good correlation between the Earth’s temperature and natural celestial phenomena, such as changes in the brightness of the sun. The fact that the sun is now brighter than it has been in 8,000 years should have a major impact on climate.” Patterson is not alone in his claims. In fact, a large number of scientists from around the world agree that anthropogenic (human) activity is not the cause of global warming.
'Fixing' global warming called 'another meaningless promise' – Edmonton Sun – November 13, 2008
Excerpt: it's time to start thinking of "fixing" global warming the same way we do "ending" child poverty. Or "settling" native land claims. Or “shortening" medical wait times. Like these other issues, "fixing" global warming has become yet another meaningless promise that all politicians of all stripes will be paying lip service to in perpetuity. One they will spend billions of our dollars "fixing" year after year.
Australian geologist: Climate theory 'like Y2K scam' – November 7, 2008 – (By Prize-wining Geologist Dr. Ian Plimer, a professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Adelaide in Australia.)
Excerpt: The Federal Government's emissions trading scheme has been likened to the ''Y2K scam'' by climate change sceptic Professor Ian Plimer. […] The number of hurricanes around the world was now decreasing, he said. Sea ice in western Antarctica was ''a little bit unstable'' while sea ice on the east of the continent was ''getting bigger''. ''The continent of Antarctica is actually rising.'' Well-known active volcanoes were sitting under Antarctica and ''pumping out exceptionally hot air''. Carbon dioxide levels had been ''very much higher in the past'' and the world was at one of the lowest levels of CO2 in history. ''Most of the emissions come from natural sources, and most of the emissions we don't even put into our calculations.'' Sea levels had risen 130m over the past 14,000 years, or 1cm per year, far from doomsday scenarios, he said. AAP
UK SCIENTIST: 'BBC SHUNNED ME FOR DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE' – Says Warming Science has ‘Gone Awry’ - November 5 , 2008 – UK Daily Express
Excerpt: respected botanist and the author of 35 books, he had presented around 400 programmes over the years and was appreciated by audiences for his boundless enthusiasm. Yet for more than 10 years he has been out of the limelight, shunned by bosses at the BBC where he made his name, as well as fellow scientists and environmentalists. His crime? Bellamy says he doesn’t believe in man-made global warming. […] And my opinion is that there is absolutely no proof that carbon dioxide is anything to do with any impending catastrophe. The science has, quite simply, gone awry. In fact, it’s not even science any more, it’s anti-science. There’s no proof, it’s just projections and if you look at the models people such as Gore use, you can see they cherry pick the ones that support their beliefs.
Study finds Greenland Ice Melt 'Slowed Significantly' – WorldClimateReport.com – November 14, 2008
(By Atmospheric scientist William Kininmonth is the former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre. He was an Australian representative and consultant to the World Meteorological Organization on climate issues and is the author of Climate Change: A Natural Hazard.
Excerpt: In spite of claims to the contrary, there is no consensus of scientists supporting the findings and recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There exists a large and vocal group of highly qualified dissenters (often denigrated as sceptics, deniers or worse). In the absence of computer models there would be little credence given to the view that the relatively small warming of the second half of the twentieth century was due to carbon dioxide emissions; there would certainly be no credence given to the possibility of irreversible runaway global warming over the coming century. […] The likely magnitude of human-caused global warming is so low that it will not be discernible against the background of natural variability in the climate record.
Video of late great Dr. Reid Bryson on CNBC TV - You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2’
Excerpt: See this 5-minute video of late great Dr. Reid Bryson on CNBC TV - 'You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2' Atmospheric Scientist Bryson's last TV appearance in December 2007. Bryson is a guest on CNBC with host Joe Kernen He died in June 12, 2008 at the age of 88. This clip shows he was lucid and persuasive right until the end of his life. Some of his colleagues tried to diminish Bryson’s skepticism, ... but as you can see from video clip, Bryson was no believer in man-made warming fears. One of the "Fathers of Meteorology," Dr. Bryson, was the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences.
Experts call for end of flushing toilets – ‘Proposed new toilet tax!’ – November 19, 2008
Excerpt: Climate Action Now DC rally: freezing, but fired up for change! Excerpt: The rally brought together people from all ages and backgrounds. They had two things in common: they were all freezing, and they were all ready to head to the Hill and press for bold climate action! The blog post above claims that "more than 300" were there, but I'm skeptical that even that many people bothered to show up. In the provided photos, the "crowd" looks pretty sparse--I can see what appears to be at least two or three of the same people in both shots: According to Weather Underground, yesterday's DC temperature topped out at 40 degrees, a nice round 40 degrees shy of the 1921 record high.
Meteorologist says ‘don’t believe it’ to claims that October was 2nd Warmest – November 18, 2008
Excerpt: This is not surprising as NOAA has become the biggest outlier in recent months. They have thanks to Tom Peterson and Tom Karl a global data base that is worth nothing. There is little or no adjustment for urbanization, land use changes, no adjustment for bad station siting (69% of the 560 US climate stations surveyed by Anthony Watts team of volunteers were poor or very poorly sited), 2/3rds of the stations globally dropped out around 1990, the number of missing months increased tenfold in the FSU and Africa after 1990, and changes in instrumentation like here in the US that Tom Karl himself found produced a warm bias of 0.5F. Not less than 6 peer review studies have shown these issues may account for up to 50% of the warming since 1900. Trust only the satellite. In fact, this October was the 10th warmest of the 30 years of data for the MSU satellite according to UAH with only a 0.167C (0.3F) anomaly instead of the 1.1F (2nd warmest out of 129 years) as per NOAA. Unfortunately satellite data extends only back to 1979.
Roger Pielke Jr.: The Polish Loophole Takes Shape
Excerpt: So the question has been, what will it take to get Poland’s agreement to an EU climate policy package? The obvious answer is to somehow create a loophole for Poland to be exempt from the requirements of EU climate policies. Such loopholes are the Achilles Heel of cap-and-trade, and doom the EU plans to policy failure. U.S. cap-and-traders should take note.
Roger Pielke Jr. : nd here's the Indian loophole
Excerpt: Lawyers Weekly Online: It seems almost impossible that, whatever the debate about the causes of global warming, some people simply refuse to believe that any appreciable change outside normal climatic cycles is actually happening: some even say we are headed for a period of global cooling – which may indeed be a consequence of the increasing atmospheric murkiness caused by warming, but which encourages a way of thinking that fails to address our need to do something about the warming phase if we’d like to see life on Earth remain more or less as it is now.
'Greenhouse theory does not stack up - Wine Mag – November 18, 2008
Excerpt: From Australian and New Zealand Wine Industry Journal (article from BraveNewClimate.files.wordpress.com)'Greenhouse theory does not stack up' - Wine Mag by well known West Australian wine maker Erl Happ - I have a sticking point with the ‘science of global warming’. It’s not global. In fact, it is confined in the main to the Northern Hemisphere.....If ‘greenhouse theory’ were correct, warming would be seen in all places and in all seasons. But, the advance in temperature is mostly in the winter and spring. There is an obvious cause for this and it’s the heat stored in the oceans as a result of episodes of tropical warming that are described as ‘El Niño’ events after the most obvious manifestation in the Pacifi c Ocean. In brief, this is the situation as I see it:.....
More from Skeptical Winemaker: LET US BANISH RELIGION FROM SCIENCE! – Skeptical WINE Maker Says
"Let us not confuse environmental religion with observational science. Reliable science explains what we observe. One can not understand the climate system without an appreciation of the in?uence of geography, spatial relations, ocean currents and the physics that drive cloud cover over the tropics. We have managed to banish religion from politics. Now we need to do the same for science." West Australian winemaker. LINK to download pdf
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Marc Morano
Communications Director
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) Inhofe Staff