The evidence to date does not show this but we also know that
modeling has been improved hugely over the past several years. Area
is adjusted heavily by wind and current. So it is very brave to
predict a five percent drop this September.
Regardless the delta heat that has been applied to the Arctic of the
past forty years continues to be sustained and the majority of
multiyear ice is now long gone. The trend has not obviously been
reversed.
I would like to see a fleet of container ships make the North West
Passage. Of course, they would have to be double hulled and have a
reinforced bow to brush off small ice floes. However, they could do
the passage in convoy with a icebreaker in attendence.
Scientists: Arctic
sea ice to shrink to record low this summer
June 21, 2013
The white areas in
this graphic show the predicted sea ice coverage areas in the Arctic
Ocean for this summer. The inner curve shows the Sept. 11 ice contour
averaged over a decade from 2003 through 2012, whereas the outer
curve shows the Sept. 11 ice contour averaged over a decade from 1993
through 2002. (Provided by Noriaki Kimura)
In a sign of continued
global warming, the Arctic sea ice this summer will shrink to a new
low, 5 percent smaller than the previous minimum of last summer,
scientists in Japan said.
A group of researchers
led by Hajime Yamaguchi, a professor of ocean information systems
with the University of Tokyo, said their predictions are based on
satellite data on movements of ice from winter through spring.
The U.S. National Snow
and Ice Data Center has said the Arctic sea ice shrank to 3.41
million square kilometers on Sept. 16, 2012, the smallest since
satellite monitoring began in 1979. Yamaguchi and colleagues predict
the area will be 160,000 square km smaller than that in early
September 2013.
Research associate
Noriaki Kimura said the thaw started from the Russian coasts this
year. He added that ice north of Russia will be completely melted
around July 21 and north of Canada around Aug. 6, opening sea routes
in the respective areas.
The Arctic sea ice
averaged 6.71 million square km between 1979 and 2000. This summer's
minimum prediction is less than half that figure.
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