This is obviously useful as I expect just about no one cares much for
the Turkish political scene. I have been uncomfortable regarding the
shift in emphasis under Erdogan away from secularism, which I
consider dangerous in any country that operates under democratic
principles. It becomes an easily trod path to violent repression as
we have seen repeated over and over again.
I want to see governments specifically avoid the whole story line.
Failure to do so as we have now seen in Turkey is toying for chaos.
What has happened here is that a large number of the electors have
spontaneously seized this particular opportunity to show their
displeasure by hitting the bricks to remind Erdogan that he is
vulnerable.
Right now he would be well advised to back down and make some minor but popular changes. This will let things calm down simply because there does not appear to be a serious cause celebre.
Turkey has done very well in developing their evolving democracy. It
did require the outright suppression of Islamic power. Reigniting
that is not a step forward
What the Heck Is
Happening in Turkey? A FAQ for the Rest of Us.
By Josh Voorhees
Posted Monday, June 3,
2013
What began Friday as a
small environmental rally protesting plans to tear down a
six-square-block city park has ballooned into what by nearly all
accounts is the largest and most-direct challenge to Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's regime since he came to power more
than a decade ago. On Monday, the demonstrations entered their fourth
day, with thousands of people gathering in Istanbul's landmark Taksim
Square to protest what they contend is Erdoğan's ever-increasing
authoritarianism. Erdoğan, meanwhile, has attempted to dismiss the
demonstrations as the work of a vocal anti-Islam minority who have
continually worked to derail his efforts to boost the Middle Eastern
nation's financial fortunes.
For those unfamiliar
with the Turkish backstory—which, let's be honest here, is most of
us—here's your cheat sheet to help you get up to speed. You'll find
some links to more-detailed reading at the bottom, but in the
meantime we'll paint largely with broad strokes for the sake of
simplicity to get you started.
Who's doing the
protesting?
It's a rather large
group—most estimates peg the total in the "tens of
thousands"—so it's a little difficult to lump them all under
any headline more specific than "protesters." But the
majority of those who have taken to the streets largely appear to be
urban, secular Turks who, in the words of the Associated Press,
are "frustrated by what they see as Erdoğan's close ties to
development interests and his alleged attempts to force his religious
outlook on them."
The prime minister,
meanwhile, has focused on the latter half of that description while
largely ignoring the former. As Reuters reported, Erdoğan
on Monday blamed the widespread demonstrations on his secularist
enemies who he says are out of step with the mandate of his political
party, which has its roots in the nation's old Islamist parties that
were banned in the past. "This is a protest organized by
extremist elements," he said at a news conference before
departing on a trip to North Africa. "We will not give away
anything to those who live arm-in-arm with terrorism."
What are they
protesting?
A relatively small
group of protesters last week gathered at Istanbul's Gezi
Park—whatForeign Policy's describes as "an underwhelming patch
of green space close to Taksim Square"—to protest plans to
raze the green space to make way for a shopping center. The protest
started as a peaceful sit-in, but quickly exploded into much more
after police launched a pre-dawn raid Friday that involved tear gas
and water cannons. The large-scale demonstrations that followed
appear to be as much in response to that violent crackdown on a
peaceful display of dissent as they are about underlying tensions
that have long simmered in the region but are only now beginning to
boil over.
For Erdoğan's
critics, the reaction to the park protest was a perfect microcosim
for what they see as Erdoğan's overreaching, opposition-quashing
government. As the New York Times explains, the small fight over
urban spaces—the park in question is the last green space in
downtown Istanbul—is part of a larger one over Turkish identity.
"The swiftly changing physical landscape of Istanbul symbolizes
the competing themes that undergird modern Turkey—Islam versus
secularism, rural versus urban," the paper writes. "They
highlight a booming economy and a self-confidence expressed by the
religiously conservative ruling elite that belies the post-empire
gloom that permeates the novels of Istanbul by Orhan Pamuk, Turkey’s
Nobel laureate and most famous writer."
So, is Erdoğan a
dictator?
That's a hard case to
make. Turkey has a relatively stable democracy and Erdoğan has
enjoyed the support of an almost-majority of voters in recent
years. Erdoğan won his last two elections with 47 percent and
49.95 percent of the popular vote, the only two times in nearly two
decades that any party had earned more than 45 percent of the vote in
a parliamentary election. Based on those vote totals, Erdoğan's
backers say he has the closet thing to a political mandate that
anyone has seen in Turkey in decades.
His time in office,
however, has been marked by widespread changes that have alienated
some of the nation's old powers who thrived in a more secular Turkey.
Perhaps most notably, Erdoğan has placed the military under
civilian control, and broken down old rules to allow for wider public
expression of religion, something that had been barred under previous
secular governments. Those on the left, meanwhile, are largely more
tolerant of Islam's increasing influence in the country, but instead
take issue with Erdoğan's forceful leadership style that allows
little room for opposing views.
Whose side is the
United States on?
Somewhere in the
middle but, at the moment at least, leaning toward the side of the
status quo. At a White House briefing on Monday, Jay Carney voiced
concern about the reports of a violent crackdown on the protests but
said that the United States would continue to work with the Turkish
government. "Turkey is a very important ally," Carney said.
"All democracies have issues that they need to work through. And
we would expect the government to work through this in a way that
respects the rights of their citizens." Making things that much
more uncomfortable for the White House is the fact that Turkey
represents not only a relatively stable ally in an unstable region,
but one that Obama trumpeted as a "model ally" in recent
years, a view that was relatively widespread. That perception,
however, is now up for debate as Erdoğan's forces fire tear gas and
water cannons at its own people.
What happens next?
While the Arab Spring
may have conditioned many in the West to assume that wide-scale
protest in the Middle East will lead directly to regime change, that
appears to be a long shot in Turkey. As the AP explains: "Erdoğan
is unlikely to fall." Still, the massive protests have the
potential to serve as a turning point for Turkey in general and
Erdoğan's moderate Islamist government in specific. The prime
minister, long one of the more powerful men in the region, is set to
leave office next year thanks to the current term limit. But it's no
secret that he doesn't plan to ease into retirement. Most observers
expect him to shift his attention to challenge current Turkish
President Abdullah Gul, who has been much more sympathetic to the
protesters.
Further Reading:
Foreign Policy: How
Democratic Is Turkey?
The Atlantic (from
April 2013): Sultan Erdogan: Turkey's Rebranding Into the New, Old
Ottoman Empire
The New Yorker (from
March 2012): The Deep State: The Prime Minister is revered as a
moderate, but how far will he go to stay in power?
Slate: Why Isn't Tear
Gas Illegal?
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