WAR by other means - Canada vs USA

 

First off, the trade war launched by Donald trump is been lost badly by the USA, not least because they were utterly unnprepared. while Canada certainly was.  The central consequence will emerge over the next decade as the St lawrtence valley establishes manufacturing hegemony over North america through application of green energy and Canada centric industrial strategy.

Sorry, but if you use aluminium in the USA, you really need to move north.  If you work in fabrication you need to move north.  Just that alone will drive millions north into Canada as future immigrants.  all their children will be loyal canadians.  It will cost Canada nothing to throw out the welcome mat.

This is now a huge unintended bias that is becoming structural, just as offshoring also became structural in the USA.  Even more telling is that Canada has activated direct rail linkage from all of Canada to Mexiico City alllowing all Canadian offshoring to be done in Mexico.  today, both Canadian transcontenental railroads travel down the mississippi valley to either the gulf and through CPKC all the way to Mexico city.  This land bridge is completely avalable to all contenental manufacturers as well.

this has all been driven by obvious Canadian industrial and strategic imperitives, yet ultimately both benefiting USA needs, but also neutralizing USA points of leverage.

what this misbegotten trade war has demonstrated is that you cannot inflict damage when the same action blows your foot off. Canada has always been happy to supply necessary resources such as oil, energy and aluminium at a fair price when we actually held their nuts as collateral.  so far the USA has only felt the pressure.

This all will end soon with the pending removal of Trump and a much chastened replacement will obviusly work to undo all the damage.  however we can expect serious efforts to repair things this time around.  not least will be a constitional ammendment that removes all tariff decissions directly to congress and likely an age limit for the presidency.

my point is that this will surely all end soon although real consequences will roll along into history.

A direct consequence will be the emeregence of a globsl bilateral confederation of the willing.  so far this is stress induced, but emergent benefits are also driving it.  not least because it empowers corporate partnerships that matter.

Another consequence is that Canada can now propose and promote at a low level the idea of extending political and diplomatic friendship to obvious proto provinces such as the UK,. New England. the US Great Lakes, The northern Plains, the Salish Sea and even Alaska.  The power of such a move is to provide political leaders with ability to negotiate with both Washington and Ottawa and to give them creditable leverage.  it also formally engages a market audience of around 100,000,000 potential citizens. Nothing may ultimately change, but the implied threat will serve well to prevent future issues.