Wednesday, March 28, 2012
It is really uncomplicated. The EV needs a three hundred mile range and a declining price structure in the battery technology. Several strategies are been pursued to get there.
The problem is that they must get there before this market ignites and when that actually happens, the rest of the automotive industry will fold as the proverbial cheap tent. I really think it will be that quick also. The consumer knows that electronic technology simply gets better and cheaper and will not need to be sold on the new technology when the range and price is right.
A true EV and we are seeing them already without the actual range they need to be practical will easily outpoint the gasoline fueled competition. The lines will simply shut down as the manufacturers switch as quickly as possible over to the EV format.
Electric car revolution faces increasing headwinds
By Ben KlaymanPosted 2012/03/21 at 12:13 am EDT
A Fisker Karma luxury plug-in hybrid car is seen at the sixth annual Alternative Transportation Expo and Conference (AltCar) in
September 29, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson Santa Monica, California
The 34-year-old car lover bought the plug-in hybrid electric Karma in December for $107,850, but five days later the car's battery died as he was driving in downtown Chicago. While the car he affectionately calls a "head turner" was fixed in a recall, Kluth remains uncertain how much he will drive it.
"I just want a car that works," Kluth said. "It's a fun car to drive. It's just that I've lost confidence in it."
The Karma's problems -- one vehicle died during testing by Consumer Reports this month -- follow bad publicity arising from a probe of General Motors Co'sChevrolet Volt and weak sales of the car, and the closure or bankruptcy of several electric vehicle-related start-ups.
The unrelenting bad news has led to questions about the readiness of electric cars and raises fresh doubts about a technology that has around since the late 1890s but still struggling to win over the public.
Whether electric vehicles can find an audience beyond policymakers in Washington and Hollywood celebrities depends on lowering vehicle prices without selling cars at a loss, analysts and industry executives say, while extending driving range to make the cars competitive with their gasoline-powered peers.
"It's going to be a slow slog," said John O'Dell, senior green car editor at industry research firm Edmunds.com. "Maybe there's too much expectation of more and quicker success than might realistically be expected of a brand new technology."
He also questioned whether priorities will simply change for whomever is
president after the November election. Electric vehicles could lose tax breaks
-- currently worth $7,500 a vehicle for buyers -- particularly if a Republican
ends up in the White House. U.S.
Edmunds expects pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids to make up only 1.5 percent of the U.S. market in 2017, compared with 0.1 percent last year, and O'Dell said that may be optimistic. Consumers charge all-electric cars by plugging into an outlet, while hybrid versions include a gasoline engine.
President Barack Obama's administration has been a strong proponent of electric vehicles like the Volt and set a goal of getting 1 million battery-powered vehicles on the road by 2015. Lux Research estimates that number will actually be fewer than 200,000. Both the Volt and Karma's development were supported by low-interest federal loans.
That has not dissuaded automakers, many of which plan to launch electric vehicles to join the Volt and Nissan's <7201.T> all-electric Leaf in a bid to meet rising fuel efficiency standards.
<7203.T> has begun selling a
plug-in Prius, and EVs from Ford , Honda <7267.T>, BMW and
Fiat will join the fray this year, along with cars from start-ups
Tesla and Coda Automotive. Toyota
HENRY FORD'S WIFE
Electric cars aren't a new concept. Henry Ford bought his wife, Clara, at least two electric cars in the early 1900s offering at best 50 miles driving range and top speeds of about 35 miles per hour, according to the Henry Ford Museum.
But analysts said automakers have not done a good enough job getting the costs down and explaining the technology to win over anyone beyond early adopters like actor Leonardo DiCaprio, pop idol Justin Bieber, comedian Jay Leno and former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.
"You can do all the advertising and promotion you want, but if people don't buy into the message the needle's not going to move," said George Cook, a marketing professor at the University of Rochester's business school and a former Ford executive.
The Volt, at almost $40,000 before federal subsidies, is seen as too expensive by many critics. Fiat-Chrysler Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne, a long-time EV skeptic, has said Chrysler will lose more than $10,000 on every battery-powered Fiat 500 it sells.
And even with rising gasoline prices -- topping $4 a gallon in parts of the country -- EVs are just not competitive, according to the Lundberg Survey. Gasoline prices would have to rise to $8.53 a gallon to make the Leaf competitive and hit $12.50 for a Volt to be worth it, based on the cost of gasoline versus electricity, fuel efficiency and depreciation, the survey said.
Obama's vision, which he laid out at a Daimler truck plant in North Carolina this month, includes a car battery that costs half the price of today's versions and can go up to 300 miles on a single charge. The industry is far from achieving that.
Since last fall, there has been a run of bad news for EVs, starting with the late November news that
safety regulators were
investigating the Volt for possible battery fires. U.S.
While the federal investigation was closed with the conclusion there was no defect and the car did not pose a greater risk of fire than gas-powered vehicles, weak demand led GM to halt production for five weeks and temporarily lay off 1,300 workers at the plant that builds the car. GM, which strengthened the structural protection of the Volt battery, has repeatedly said the car is safe, and some said the safety probe should have never occurred.
The Karma that died during testing by Consumer Reports magazine was another blow following a recall of more than 200 of the cars last year and the halting of sales in January for a software issue. Fisker, which builds the Karma in Finland, also suspended work last month at its U.S. plant scheduled to make another car, the Nina sedan, while it works to renegotiate a $529 million loan from the
Department of Energy. U.S.
Fisker spokesman Roger Ormisher said problems can arise with new technologies and a new company but added Fisker had gone "beyond the call of duty" in instituting a system to respond to customer issues and had plenty of satisfied owners. CEO Tom LaSorda in a letter to Karma owners last week said Fisker was committed to giving customers "complete peace of mind" and he had created a "SWAT team" of 50 engineers and consultants to identify issues with the car.
'FIRST LAW OF DISNEY'
"The expectations have always been too high for electric cars," said Bill Reinert,
Toyota's manager for advanced
technology. "The realities have always been clouded by the dreams. I like
to say it's the first law of thermodynamics versus the first law of Disney.
Disney is wishing it will be so. It doesn't work." U.S. has always been skeptical EVs would
quickly boost its share of the auto market. Toyota
Meanwhile, several companies have struggled due to lack of funding or customer troubles.
A123 Systems posted a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss this month after Fisker, one of its largest customers, cut battery orders. Bright Automotive, an Indiana electric commercial truck start-up, closed its doors in February after failing to get a federal loan.
Ener1 Inc , which received a $118.5 million federal grant to make lithium-ion batteries for EVs, filed for bankruptcy in January, and Aptera Motors, a California-based EV start-up, went out of business last December after it couldn't raise $80 million in private funding.
"There will be more companies that fail, but it's no different than Internet companies," said Kristen Helsel, vice president of EV solutions for AeroVironment , which makes EV charging stations for BMW, Mitsubishi <7211.T> and Nissan. "People with the right business model are going to do fine."
A number of top national retail chains, including Kohl's and Walgreen , have begun installing charging stations at their stores, but critics say the U.S. push for electric cars has come before such infrastructure is in place, weakening the case for consumers to be attracted to the technology.
But since the bankruptcy of Solyndra, a solar panel maker that received $535 million in
loan guarantees, federal support for advanced vehicle technology programs has
ground to a halt. Industry officials and analysts point to tightened U.S.
Department of Energy requirements in the face of withering criticism from
Republicans about the Obama administration's generosity for anything related to
green technology. U.S.
"There was certainly a different energy level one year ago, even two years ago," said Oliver Hazimeh, sustainable transportation practice leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers. "This year, it just had a different drumbeat." Hazimeh sees long-term demand for EVs rising to up to 9 percent of the global market by 2022, but he predicts there will be some setbacks along the way.
Obama wants to increase the tax subsidies for buyers of electric vehicles to $10,000 per vehicle from the current $7,500. But critics say the small EV sales totals tell the real story.
Complicating matters, automakers continue to squeeze increased fuel efficiency out of the internal combustion engine. That makes it tougher to make EV sticker prices attractive enough to put a dent in the traditional gasoline-powered vehicles' domination of the market.
The EV's industry's struggles have vindicated the more deliberate approach taken by Toyota, Ford and Chrysler's Marchionne, who killed plans for a Chrysler electric car, analysts said.
Still, proponents say electric-car sales will grow just like
Toyota's hybrid Prius rose from about 5,500 in its debut in
2000 to a peak of more than 180,000 in 2007. U.S.
Doug Parks, GM's chief Volt engineer, said the proof is in the large amounts of money automakers are spending on EV technology development.
"Follow the money. People are investing huge in this stuff," he said. "This is a 10- or 20-year discussion and we've been selling the Volt for a year."
GM, which recently launched a new advertising campaign centered on testimonials by adoring Volt owners, has made the car the centerpiece of efforts to seize from
the mantle as the world's greenest automaker. Meanwhile, Nissan CEO Carlos
Ghosn has estimated pure electric vehicles like the Leaf will make up 10
percent of industry global sales by 2020. Toyota
Time will tell if that's wishful thinking.
"It's been the Kool-Aid that the entire political system has been drinking for a decade," said Bob Martin, a senior consultant with auto product development firm The CarLab. "Electric cars are not ready for prime time. They're really interesting toys for very, very rich people."
(Additional reporting by Braden Reddall in Benecia, California and Bernie Woodall in Geneva; Phil Wahba in New York; Editing by Edward Tobin, Martin Howell and Steve Orlofsky)