A deep look at the proposed agreement which bails out the Ukraine but does not bail out russia whose military is a wreak.
it is my contention that Russia needs to sort out its internal governance and also join NATO forthwith in order to stall off potential adventurism elsewhere.
what is important is that the european border will be resolved.
Trump’s Peace Deal: An Analysis
Trump’s Peace Deal: An Analysis
Paul Craig Roberts
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2025/11/23/trumps-peace-deal-an-analysis/
Since my interview last Friday by Rasheed, host of The Red Pill Diaries (URL below) , I have gone over the Russian proposal for ending conflict and Trump’s proposal. In some respects Trump’s proposal gives Putin more of what Putin wants than does the Russian proposal. Trump makes Putin pay for this by requiring the use of Russian frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine and by denying recognition to the area already incorporated into Russia, but still uncleared of Ukrainian forces.
Trump’s proposal, characteristically, also introduces the US into the agreement in a profit-making manner. Frozen Russian assets will be used for payment of US companies tasked with rebuilding Ukraine:
“A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
1. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.
b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas.
d. Infrastructure development.
e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.”
From the beginning of the military conflict I have said that what Putin wants from the conflict is a mutual security agreement with the West that brings the hostilities, not merely the conflict in Ukraine, to an end. This is what Trump offers:
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years wil be considered settled.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
These proposals by Trump are what Putin wants and the West and Russia need. These proposals will greatly motivate Putin to bring Trump’s proposal to agreement. Putin will want the US included in the mutual security arrangement, but even without the inclusion of the US, Trump’s proposal provides a bridge to the complete normalization of relations and the absence of a need for NATO and missile bases on Russia’s border.
Here is where problems could develop for Putin from the standpoint of the Russian nationalists who, unlike the liberal pro-Western Atlanticist Intergrationists, have supported the war:
21. a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as Russian, including by the United States.
b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia wil be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
c. Russia will relinquish other territories it controls outside the five regions.
d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.
This part of Trump’s plan denies Russia its victory on the battlefield. Not all of the territory currently reincorporated into Russia is recognized as Russian. Moreover, Russia has to give up other unspecified territory that Russia occupies. Finally, Ukraine’s withdrawal from the part of Donetsk that Ukraine occupies will leave the area part of Russia, but as a neutral demilitarized buffer zone on which Russian forces are not permitted. In other words, Russia is prohibited by Trump’s “solution” from having military on its own territory.
This sore point, and there are other pitfalls introduced by someone into Trump’s peace deal that could hinder the agreement, are not likely acceptable to Russian nationalists. Their position is: “We Are Winning and Will Not Surrender Our Victory to Anyone.”
As I said in my interview with Rasheed, both Trump and Putin have influential factions that support the agreement and influential factions that oppose it. In the US the Zionist Neoconservatives are already damning Trump for selling out America’s ally, Zelensky, to Putin. On the other hand MAGA Americans are demanding that Trump come home from foreign affairs and attend to America’s problems. Trump wants an agreement before his movement falls apart.
Putin wants an agreement for more fundamental reasons than immediate political need. An agreement that leads to the normalization of relations between Russia and the West solves the problem of Russian insecurity with NATO on Russia’s borders. Putin has accepted numerous provocations and insults in the hopes that eventually the West would understand it must accommodate Russian security concerns.
In the US it is Russophobic neoconservatives and the profits and power of the military/security complex vs. Maga Americans. In Russia it is Russian nationalists vs. Atlanticist Integrationists who want to have their business relations with the West restored. Both Trump and Putin face these contending interests, and how it will develop is not predictable.
Another problem, or pitfall in the agreement, for Putin is that Trump’s agreement plays to the Atlanticist Integrationists, who are more concerned with their business interests than with Russian sovereignty, by reincorporating Russia into the West and the G-8. The big question is: How can Russia simultaneously be part of the West and part of BRICS?
BRICS, a Russian creation, was Russia’s escape from isolation by the West. Without the West’s hostility toward Russia, Iran, China, India, and the rest, there is no point of BRICS. In a way, we can see Trump’s plan as a way of destroying BRICS and reducing Russian sovereignty by submerging Russia into the Western fold where Russia will have to make compromises not in Russian interests.
Whether the pitfalls in an otherwise attractive deal are recognized by the Kremlin and the Russian media remains to be seen.
There were two paths–a soft path and a hard path–that Putin could choose to take as possible roads to resolving Russia’s security problem with a mutual security agreement. He could be patient, refuse to enforce his red lines, accept provocations and insults without responding with force and hope, by taking a very slow course to winning the conflict, to wear down the West in internal disagreements and expense until the West gave up its aggressive intentions and returned to reason, or Putin could take a hard line by putting down a strong foot when tested with provocations, by quickly shutting down the entire energy section of Ukraine, leaving the country without electricity and ability to continue the conflict, by destroying the government in Kiev, and by shutting down all rail, road, and sea lines into Ukraine. Such a show of resolution and capability would send a message to the West that Russia cannot be dealt with militarily and must be dealt with diplomatically, not with threats and sanctions.
Putin chose the soft path, and he was rescued in his choice by MAGA America which forced Trump into ending the conflict and coming home to America to deal with mounting and unaddressed internal problems. MAGA Americans are derided, but it seems it is MAGA Americans who have saved the day for Putin and for Trump.
If the agreement fails or is blocked, the time of the soft approach is likely over, and Putin will have to quickly bring the conflict to victory and impose Russia’s terms.
On the Red Pill Diaries PCR discusses with Rasheed what seems to be Trump’s acceptance of the Russian position for ending the conflict in Ukraine. We discuss the prospects for Trump’s proposal and its enemies on both sides.
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