understand that this is a true existential threat to mankind. It can only be countered by a child production mandate that includes high quality mother support through the natural community.
what makes it worse is that no one is calling it out. every teenage girl must mentally prepare herself to produce four babies. we can fiddle with the economics and surely should because the current economics has got us here. We can not fiddle with the biology at all.
assuming that the side shows finally abate ,this will be our futiure emergency and it is global.
See the Future of Global Depopulation – a Giant Empty School
March 8, 2024
by Brian Wang
A youtuber shows a day in life of a Japanese Elementary School with only 8 students and 11 teachers.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/03/see-the-future-of-global-depopulation-a-giant-empty-school.html
The school has about 20 rooms and had over 400 students in previous generations but is now virtually empty.
There are about 11 million akiya, or abandoned homes, in rural Japan. Here we see a nearly abandoned school.
The video shows happy students and teachers but you can also feel the sad decline. The school was built 130 years ago for more capacity. The number of teachers should have been 20-30 and the number of students was and should be hundreds. All of the nearby schools are also nearly empty. They talk about a weekly soccer game that is 5 on 5 with first and second graders from each school.
Lack of fertility is an extinction level event over a few hundred years. The number of fertile women nearly halves every 30 years. In 300 years the number of fertile women would be 1000 times less.
Global population collapse takes women and children first and Japan is leading the way. China, South Korea and many other countries are following. 30% of the people live in countries with falling population and over 80% live in below replacement including India.
Japan is leading the way in a crisis of population collapse. Japan had peak woman about 53 years ago in 1970. This was also about the time they had peak children.
During Japan’s first postwar baby boom (1947–49), there were 2.5 million births a year. In the second baby boom (1971–74), there were 2 million annual births. Japan had 758000 babies in 2023.
Japan Could Be a Vulnerable Population by 2050
Japan’s population peaked in 2008. By the time Japan’s overall population peaked, the number of fertile women had fallen in half. The total fertility in 1974. The number of fertile women is dropping and the number of babies each is having is dropping. Japan is now at less than one-third of its peak baby years.
Humanity is on the Path to Being Endangered
A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known. A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known. I would argue that we do NOT have a clear understanding of the decline. Yes, we know women are choosing not to have children, but this problem has spread to every moderately industrialized nation and is hitting all nations Urbanization is also anti-baby and anti-family.
Japan is going from 122 million people today to about 100 million people in 2050-2056. By 2050, its population could fall below 100 million, of whom 38.8% will be 65 or older. IF there was magic policy to double Japan’s birthrates then instead of a working age population of about 58 million in 2050, Japan could have 72 million working age people and a population of about 120 million.
Population Collapse Will Be Worse than the Black Death
A global fertility collapse could be worse than the Black Death. The collapse could take 50–60 years instead of 7, and that countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.0–1.1 would lose 30–40% of their population. This would be worse than the 30–50% population loss in the hardest-hit European countries during the Black Death.
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