This
really nails it. The serious promise of
the EV is a silent vehicle that arrives quickly on demand, takes you
comfortably to your destination and then goes cruising in order to pick up
additional traffic while you do what you choose. All this without serious attention to feeding
or cleaning up after or even repair.
The
EV can do this and no other protocol is even close.
It
will also turn the energy industry over several times but that us no
matter. It is convenience and nothing
else. After all just why did early
adopters buy model T’s?
The
One Reason Tesla Motors, Inc. and Electric Vehicles Will Dethrone Gas-Powered
Vehicles
Updated Feb 16th 2014 5:52PM
If you're following the
race among alternative-fuel vehicles to dethrone today's king of the road, the
internal combustion engine vehicle, you know there are pluses and minuses
associated with each type of vehicle. This includes the hybrid electric
vehicle; the purely electric vehicle, much in the news these days thanks
to Tesla Motors ; and the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. They all
have their strengths and weaknesses when it comes to various factors, such as
cost, convenience, environmental- and human-health impact, and so on. Of
course, those strengths and weaknesses are largely quite subjective -- they
vary based upon whom you ask, as well as who paid for whatever study is being
quoted.
My take is that many of
the specifics don't matter that much, and that which type of vehicle should win and which one will win could, perhaps, be two
different things.
I believe there is one
reason it is highly likely that EVs -- with Tesla leading the way -- will take
the passenger-vehicle mantle from ICE vehicles: convenience. (Down the road,
perhaps, EVs might be dethroned, and it would be terrific for us all if it were
by solar-powered vehicles, but that's a long way a-comin.')
The U.S. is a
"convenience society"
I realize boiling this big issue down to one key factor seems overly simplistic. However, what the consumer wants, the consumer usually gets -- and what the U.S. consumer, in general, most craves is convenience, in my opinion.
The U.S. is a convenience
society. We have drive-through everythings; Netflixkicked
Blockbuster to the curb largely because of the convenience factor; GreenMountain Coffee
Roasters' Keurig has been phenomenally successful mainly because it's
ultra-convenient; and McDonald's and the entire fast-food
concept enjoy amazing success largely because of the ease factor.
Let's not forget the
poster child of convenience: online shopping. Amazon.com's massive
empire was built on convenience. And what's the latest competitive space in
that realm? Same-day delivery. Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Google,
among others, see huge dollar signs in their corporate eyes in delivering even
more convenience into consumers' lives. Otherwise, would Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos
be looking into using drones for short-distance same-day delivery? There are
surely huge costs involved in getting that enterprise up and running. Google,
likewise, apparently plans to spare no expense in capturing the convenience
dollars up for grabs. It's been widely speculated, including by The New York Times, that one
reason Google's been building up its massive robotics army -- it bought eight
robotics companies last year -- is to use them in its retail delivery service.
Electric vehicles are
largely "convenience vehicles" for many
EVs allow for the bulk of "fueling" to be done at the driver's home, while he or she is sleeping away. And, when away from home, the driver will largely be able to plug in and charge up while parked at work, a restaurant, a shopping center, and so on. No need to go out of one's way -- even if it's only a few blocks -- to a gas station. Many people like this idea, and I'd venture to say that most of those same people likely don't want to have to make pit stops at hydrogen fueling stations, either.
Additionally, EVs require
less regular maintenance and likely fewer repairs than ICE vehicles -- and who
wouldn't like that idea? This is a biggie with respect to both cost and convenience.
Now, EVs might not be
considered convenient for some folks because of their range. However, I think
the "range anxiety" issue is largely blown out of proportion when it
comes to Tesla's vehicles.
The Model S with the 85
kW-h battery has a 265-mile range. Let's somewhat arbitrarily even lop off 15%
during poor driving conditions. That's 225 miles.
Americans who drive
passenger vehicles drive an average of 12,000 to 13,500 miles per year. That
equates to 230 to 260 miles per week. We're talking one or two charges per
week, which, for those with a garage, or select other parking facilities, can
be done overnight.
Sure, extended drives
will mean stopping at a Tesla Supercharger station. I'd guess most people --
especially those with kids -- stop after a few hours on the road to eat and/or
use restrooms, anyway. A 20-minute break allows a Model S to get enough juice
at a Supercharger station for an additional 130 miles, while a 30-minute break
will provide power for about 200 miles. Granted, these sites aren't
conveniently located for everyone yet. So it should go without saying that EVs
aren't currently a good fit for some. And for some consumers, such as those
whose jobs involve regular long-distance driving, even a 265-mile-range vehicle
might not ever be convenient.
As to Supercharger
stations, Tesla is aggressively expanding its charging network. By 2015, 98% of
the U.S. population (and parts of Canada) will live within the Model S
rated-range of a station, per the company.
Down the road, EVs should
become even more convenient, as battery and charging technology will almost
surely improve, so ranges will increase and charging time will decrease.
Foolish final thoughts
Investors might consider asking themselves this question when considering investing in companies that make consumer goods: Will, or do, a good number of consumers largely view this product as adding convenience to their lives? Tesla's EVs pass that test, in my opinion.
2 comments:
I would definitely recommend sticking to the trend of attaching a contoured solar panel to a horizontal surface on the car, either roof or hood, just for that panicky time when you DO find yourself out of range of such a station. Also, the Chevy Volt concept, where a small generator is also onboard to extend your range may be a welcome emergency measure.
As this article points out electric vehicles of all types (golf car, cars, quads, vans, trucks, etc ...) are extremely affordable. In fact, we can recharge it at home by connecting them to a common outlet and recharging costs are very low (2-3 dollars per charge). They also allow to save even on maintenance and insurance costs. Finally, thanks to the technological development of the batteries, they can ensure greater autonomy. So they are destined to have a huge success in the coming years.
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