Let us start with an Eden machine for
every lawn and the natural end of lawn sprinklers. Once we have something like that in place an
improving local hydraulic cycle can be tapped safely to provide local needs as
well.
Expanding a cheaper version of the Eden
machine will fix the rest by supporting orchards and forests as well all
feeding an enlarged hydraulic cycle.
Otherwise all this is for the future. I the meantime we must suffer the present and
hope for extensive rains which I view of this winter may see a powerful rebound
this coming year.
California's Drought Could Be the Worst in
500 Years
And why it's too late for the rain.
Mon Feb. 10, 2014 3:00 AM GMT
The remains of Cachuma
Lake, the main water source for 200,000 people in southern Santa Barbara
County. Ruaridh
Stewart/ZUMA
The
Golden State is in the midst of a three-year drought—and scientists believe
that this year may end up being the driest in the last half millennium,
according to University of California-Berkeley
professor B. Lynn Ingram. Californians are scared, with good
reason: Fire danger in the state is high, and drinking-water supplies are
low.
But
the drought will have repercussions outside the state's borders, as well.
California produces a good chunk of the nation's food: half of all our
fruits and vegetables, along with a significant amount of dairy and wine.
So
how will this historically dry period affect Californians—and the rest of us?
Here are a few important facts to keep in mind:
How
bad is it? According to the United States Drought Monitor,
most of the state is experiencing "extreme drought," the second
highest of six rankings. About 10 percent of the state is experiencing
"exceptional drought," the highest possible level. As of this
week, 17 communities are
in danger of running out of water, forcing some to buy it
or run pipes from other districts.
What
do scientists say about the drought? Scientists can't predict
how wet or dry a specific season is going to be, but they can forecast drought
trends over time, and they've been warning us for decades that the droughts
will become more common. In 2005, Jacob Sewall, then a scientist at the
University of California-Santa Cruz, used computer modeling
to predict that over the next 30 to 50 years in North America, changing current
patterns caused by melting sea ice would increase average annual precipitation
by 40 percent in the Northwest while decreasing it by 30 percent in the
Southwest. Sewall told Mother
Jones last week that sea ice has been melting faster than
predicted, which could speed up the precipitation changes.
With
the recent rain, is it possible to make up the water we need this year? Even
though some rain has finally come, it
would be nearly impossible for California to make up the water it needs.
According to the Department of Water Resources, the state would need to
experience heavy rain or snowfall every other day from
now until May in order to achieve average annual precipitation levels. Dr.
Peter Gleick, codirector of the water-focused research nonprofit the Pacific
Institute, explained that because California's reservoirs are already depleted
from a dry past two years, "We need a really, really wet rest of the
season. And that's statistically unlikely."
Are
Californians being asked to conserve water? Yes,
some of them. So far, only a handful of cities have enacted mandatory water
restrictions. Sacramento and Folsom are requiring residents to cut water use by
at least 20 percent. Residents of Santa Cruz, Tuolumne County, and other
municipalities and have been prohibited from watering their lawns and gardens
during the day, refilling their pools, and hosing down their driveways. Santa
Cruz has barred restaurants from serving water unless diners request it.
Most
water agencies have opted for voluntary conservation measures, asking consumers
to take shorter showers, flush toilets less regularly, and sweep driveways and
sidewalks instead of hosing them down. When Gov. Jerry Brown announced in
mid-January that the drought had reached a state of emergency, he urged
Californians to reduce water consumption by 20 percent. It's too soon to tell
whether people are actually taking his advice, because so many of the
restrictions went into place so recently. But Gleick says that in past droughts
voluntary restrictions have been "somewhat effective," depending on
how seriously people take the drought.
Which
crops are feeling the burn? Many farmers who grow
annual crops—those that have to be replanted every year—have been able to plant
fewer seeds than usual in order to conserve water. But those who tend crops
that grow on trees and vines are in a tougher position, because their plants
have to be maintained year-round.
The
good news is that it usually takes more than one very dry season to actually
kill a tree—but less water can mean lower production for at least a couple of
years. In 2009, Ken Shackel,
a tree crop expert at the University of California-Davis, observed several
dozen unirrigated almond trees in dry soil for a year. The trees didn't
die, but their yield was cut in half. The next year was even worse: Despite
receiving normal water, the trees' yield was 90 percent below normal. It wasn't
until the year after that their yields were up to normal again.
"However
bad this year, it will be worse next," Shackel says of California's tree
farmers today. "Really bad this year means really, really bad next
year."
The
most vulnerable crops, says Shackel, are probably stone fruits like plums,
cherries, peaches, and apricots, which are adapted to wetter climates.
California's
ranchers are also feeling the drought.
Less water means less grass for beef and dairy cows to graze, forcing
ranchers either to cull their herds or sell cattle in
fire sales. One auctioneer on the Central Coast told the Associated Press he
was selling up to 1,000 cattle per week, up to 10 times the normal
rate.
Will
consumers see the effects of the drought in food prices? The
cost of food is on the rise,
but it's hard to know whether this year's drought is contributing to the hike.
Bouts of extreme weather have pushed food prices up in
the past, most recently after a major drought in China and floods in
Australia. Ag watchers expect shortages and possibly price increases for
lettuce, broccoli, and citrus, and melon over the rest of the year, although
the citrus shortage is due to both the drought and the deep freeze in the rest
of the country.
What
are the areas most at risk for fire? Large swaths of Southern
California—including the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, and
Riverside—are most at risk. In fact, Cal Fire information officer Daniel
Berlant says, "In Southern California, fire season really never
ended." Seasonal firefighters in Southern California, usually employed
only during summer and fall months, have stayed on staff all year long.
But
what's made this year particularly unusual, says Berlant, is that wildfires
have been igniting "up and down the state." Usually, the fire
department only sees the occasional fire in Southern California. Since the
beginning of the year, nearly 500 fires in the state have burned more than
1,100 acres—more than 10 times the usual burn total for January.
This
month's rain has helped quell the current fires, but because the land is so
dry, Berlant says, "by the time we get into the summer months, the chances
of seeing larger and more damaging fires is going to be much higher this
year."
Cal
Fire is considering expanding inspections to check compliance with
"defensible space" rules, which require that residents have 100 feet
of space free of flammable materials (e.g. brush or other vegetation) around
their houses.
What
else is the drought screwing up? Hydroelectric
energy, which makes up about 14 percent of the state's power supply. With less
water running through turbines, the grid may need to use more natural gas,
which is more expensive. As a result, Californians' power bills may
increase slightly in the coming months.
So
now what do we do? For starters, we should be taking the long view.
In Gleick's words: "We have a long history of panicking over droughts and
then forgetting about them as soon as it rains. We really have to change our
mindset."
"Water
resources aren't about 'What do we have this month?'" Sewell says.
"They are about 'What can we expect to have next year, 5 years from now,
10 years from now?' The planning and infrastructure involved take a lot of lead
time."
During
past droughts, coastal counties in central and Southern California have taken
upportable desalination plants to
get the water they needed. It's an effective option, but the technology is
expensive, and the plants require significant amounts of energy.
For
individual Californians, Gleick suggests making changes that will make water
conservation easier in the years to come. "There's a distinction
between voluntary behavior and permanent, long-term improvements in
efficiency," he says. "The first one is you let your lawn go brown.
But the second one is that you replace that water-consuming lawn with
drought-tolerant, native vegetation."
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