The one good thing about doing a study like this in Australia is that continent is isolated from the much more complex weather patterns associated with the northern hemisphere. Thus it is plausible that measurable variations in solar activity and their linkage to terrestrial weather conditions can be tested.
The result of this study is that it is possible to predict general weather conditions two and three years ahead. This is an important breakthrough. It also suggests that the patterns do repeat well enough to have additional predictive value.
The periodicity has already been recognized. This may allow sufficient fine tuning.
It would be useful to know about the onset of drought conditions, or the level of hurricane risk. These are big energy events were foreknowledge is very useful. I do not think that a finer resolution is possible but this would still actually be good enough for agriculture.
The putative protocol calls for matching up comparable eras in the historic record and linking them with contemporaneous solar activity. It appears to work within a reasonable range of uncertainty. The model is simple enough to develop creditable statistics just from the historic record and makes it very testable. The challenge is to refrain from adding additional variable that quickly make nonsense of it all.
Linking this to the activities in the northern hemisphere will be a challenge, but getting part of it right is a very good start.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081202081449.htm
Sun's Magnetic Field May Impact Weather And Climate: Sun Cycle Can Predict Rainfall Fluctuations
ScienceDaily (Dec. 3, 2008) — The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres. According to a study in Geographical Research, the droughts are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect.
The study uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.
It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns – and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924.
Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, “The interaction between the directionality in the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, the incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in sea surface temperatures with cloud cover – could all contribute to an explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations. If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns, there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and possibly beyond.”
The SOI-solar association has been investigated recently due to increasing interest in the relationship between the sun’s cycles and the climate. The solar application offers the potential for the long-range prediction of SOI behavior and associated rainfall variations, since quasi-periodicity in solar activity results in an expected cycle of situations and phases that are not random events.
Professor Baker adds, “This discovery could substantially advance forecasting from months to decades. It should result in much better long-term management of agricultural production and water resources, in areas where rainfall is correlated to SOI and El Niño (ENSO) events.”
Journal reference:
1. Baker et al. Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia. Geographical Research, 2008; 46 (4): 380 DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00537.x
Adapted from materials provided by Wiley - Blackwell.
No comments:
Post a Comment