Thursday, December 11, 2008

Current Markets

It has been said by others, but the massive contraction of credit and concomitant equity is generating one of those brief eras of wealth creation that come along every generation or so. The good news is that this period of assemblage will last a good five years as good assets are marked down enough to attract shrewd buyers.

It is even a good time to buy a house and if you like been a landlord to buy a second property. If you are sophisticated you can do much better than that, but if you have just arrived on the last pumpkin truck, you too will live to be a winner. The inventory is out there looking for a home, and the folks who need to sell are desperate or certainly no longer delusional as to value. The next three years will see the banks sort out their mortgage portfolios and their strong reentry into mortgage lending If you have a smell of equity they will need you.

The stock market is also sorting itself out and this credit contraction is smashing up balance sheets around the globe. It will take a full year for the damage to be recognized and fully reported. This opens the door for selective buys were value investing precepts hold up and the prices are depressed enough. You will not go far wrong in following Buffet if you lack ideas of your own.

Avoid mutual funds for now because redemptions are forcing the sale of the good and down grading the longer term potential of these portfolios. They lack the freedom of a closed fund that Buffet has. The hedge funds are typically in even worse position.

There will also be incipient winners out there that good research will flush out. There is always a place for a punt on an incipient ten bagger, and there will be a lot of good ones out there making money today.

No comments: