Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Inportant Chaos Theory Result on Climate Change

I am particularly pleased with this particular item. As I have posted, the data that we could look at was giving exactly this result but over a more recent range and obviously with less reliability.

Now the synchronized chaos theory net has been thrown over a full century and has been found to nicely match the record. This is fantastic news. We now have a predictive tool for predicting general climate direction for years at a time. Just as we can predict sunspot behavior within narrow parameters, we can now predict climate shifts as well. This will also allow us to refine the conjectured linkage between solar variation and climate variation.

This obviously allows a complete reappraisal of the CO2 linkage theory. If it survives at all, it must be in a sharply reduced form since the magnitude of the forcing was measured against what appears to be a natural climate shift and that is now a provable distortion.

It will be nice to know for sure when long term droughts will occur, so that we can act accordingly to preserve soil moisture well ahead of the actual conditions. That is how important that this nifty bit of modeling is and how important it will become.

Once this is properly integrated into the debate on global warming, scientific support for IPCC dogma will trend to zero, since no scientists will face down a working theory that is nicely and flawlessly explaining the historical data.

UW-Milwaukee Study Could Realign Climate Change Theory
Scientists Claim Earth Is Undergoing Natural Climate Shift

POSTED: 3:18 pm CDT March 15, 2009
UPDATED: 10:37 pm CDT March 15, 2009

http://www.wisn.com/weather/18935841/detail.html

MILWAUKEE -- The bitter cold and record snowfalls from two wicked winters are causing people to ask if the global climate is truly changing.

The climate is known to be variable and, in recent years, more scientific thought and research has been focused on the global temperature and how humanity might be influencing it.

However, a new study by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee could turn the climate change world upside down.

Scientists at the university used a math application known as synchronized chaos and applied it to climate data taken over the past 100 years.

"Imagine that you have four synchronized swimmers and they are not holding hands and they do their program and everything is fine; now, if they begin to hold hands and hold hands tightly, most likely a slight error will destroy the synchronization. Well, we applied the same analogy to climate," researcher Dr. Anastasios Tsonis said.

Scientists said that the air and ocean systems of the earth are now showing signs of synchronizing with each other.

Eventually, the systems begin to couple and the synchronous state is destroyed, leading to a climate shift.

"In climate, when this happens, the climate state changes. You go from a cooling regime to a warming regime or a warming regime to a cooling regime. This way we were able to explain all the fluctuations in the global temperature trend in the past century," Tsonis said. "The research team has found the warming trend of the past 30 years has stopped and in fact global temperatures have leveled off since 2001."

The most recent climate shift probably occurred at about the year 2000.

Now the question is how has warming slowed and how much influence does human activity have?

"But if we don't understand what is natural, I don't think we can say much about what the humans are doing. So our interest is to understand -- first the natural variability of climate -- and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural," Tsonis said.

Tsonis said he thinks the current trend of steady or even cooling earth temps may last a couple of decades or until the next climate shift occurs.

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2 comments:

Tarun Kumar said...

Combating climate change may not be a question of who will carry the burden but could instead be a rush for the benefits, according to new economic modeling presented at “Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions” hosted by the University of Copenhagen.

Contrary to current cost models for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and fighting climate change, a group of researchers from the University of Cambridge conclude that even very stringent reductions of can create a macroeconomic benefit, if governments go about it the right way.

“Where many current calculations get it wrong is in the assumption that more stringent measures will necessarily raise the overall cost, especially when there is substantial unemployment and underuse of capacity as there is today”, explains Terry Barker, Director of Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge and a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Congress.

arclein said...

I am glad to see someone think like that. Most of these problems can be resolved by the expedient of a global regulation. It is otherwise impossible because you hand someone an advantage that destroys the competition.

A visible example of comparative advantage is the situation between GM and upstart us based auto manufacturers who have a $2000 differential per vehicle.

Since society is not willing to hand organized labor a monopoly because of a history of prior bone headed inflexibility, organized labor is now been forced from the field.

If effort was spent on establishing a working framework for global regulation, actual progess becomes possible.