Monday, October 6, 2014

North Korea - Something big is happening

I am not sure that we can be hopeful but they are backed into a serious economic corner and this likely triggered the end of indulgence for the Great Leader's new heir.

They will also get no indulgence from China as well.

That does leave them with a remarkably sound solution and that is complete unity with South Korea. 

Thus it is time to negotiate a golden parachute that makes it all possible as was put together with East Germany for the exact same reasons.  I really think that is now in the works and that is why we have this first sudden show and tell for the chosen few now.  They need to see the end of their nightmare.

China even wins because they stick the cleanup bill to the South Koreans and gain a friendly ally when it is over.

North Korea shock. Something big is happening

October 4, 2014

It is impossible to know exactly what is going on in North Korea, but something big has happened. The third generation Kim dynasty heir, Kim Jong-un, has been missing from public sight for a month, and may be ill, dead, or overthrown. There is much speculation, and contradictory reports are circulating, including the assertion that Pyongyang is sealed off, and no one is being permitted to enter or leave. But one fact is clear and it is dramatic. CNN reports:

With Kim Jong Un out of sight for a month, a covey of North Korea's high officials popped down to South Korea for a last minute jaunt on Saturday, and delivered a diplomatic bonbon.

The three officials told South Korea that Pyongyang is willing to hold a second round of high-level meetings between late October and early November, South Korea's Unification Ministry said in a statement Saturday.

Hwang Pyong-so (left), director of North Korean military`s General Political Bureau, shake hands with South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae at Incheon Oakwood Hotel on Saturday. (Yonhap)

High level visits from North Korea to Seoul don’t just happen casually, because some people wanted to attend the closing ceremonies of the Asian Games, the official pretext being offered. I strongly suspect that some kind of deal with the South is being sought by the North, probably out of desperation over their situation, which is very bad, and possibly triggered by Kim Jong un’s illness, death, incapacity, or overthrow.

Politics in North Korea revolve around factions built on personal loyalty. If there is currently a group that wants some form of rapprochement with the South in power, it is always possible that they will be overthrown by a hardline group. However, the willingness of people to leave Pyongyang and visit Seoul suggests that they are reasonably confident of their hold on power.

The fundamental dynamics of North Korea’s confrontation with the South have changed dramatically over the past decade, leading me to be more hopeful than ever before of the possibility of reform there.

North Korea is no longer hermetically sealed off from information about the outside world.

Until the advent of cheap video players and memory sticks, as well as cheap cell phones, in many cases dropped or smuggled into North Korea, most people knew very little about the vast gulf that separated their lives from those of their cousins south of the border. But now, thanks to these technologies cheaply produced in mass quantities by South Korea and widely available in the North, despite the regime’s best efforts, North Korean realize that they do not have to live at the margin of starvation, that people just like them, quite nearby, have cars, air-conditioning, flat screen TVs, and all the appurtenances of a prosperous modern life.

Those propaganda videos on the glories of the Kim family and the need to fight back against the imperialist exploiters of the South Korean masses fall a little flat these days. South Korea is now a rich, developed nation, a peer of Europe, Japan and America, and that is a huge source of pride for Koreans, whose national inferiority complex is severe, after decades of subjugation to the Japanese that still rankles.

If Kim Jong-un is dead, seriously ill, or overthrown, finding a legitimate successor may be quite difficult. Given the factionalism there, competing successors may exist, and war between factions associated with them could be anticipated.

It may seem that the wealth South Korea potentially could provide would heal a lot of wounds, particularly if the leadership negotiates an amnesty for themselves, and perhaps enough money to live comfortably in the south of France for the rest of their days.

I have to wonder how much information our South Korean allies are sharing with American diplomats. If I were they, I would be very cautious about involving the Obama administration, whose diplomatic competence is open to serious question.

It is always possible that nothing will come of this shocking diplomatic foray, or that the forces of the hardliners in Pyongyang will triumph. Or even that a desperate war will be started by a regime that fears its own death.

But for now, I have my fingers crossed that we may finally see the end of an evil, repressive, communist regime.

Has Kim Jong-Un lost control of North Korea? Pyongyang is on lockdown and nation's former intelligence officer says Kim has ALREADY been overthrown 

An elite exile from North Korea said Kim Jong-Un was ousted in 2013
Jang Jin-sung made the sensational assertion at a conference in Holland
The former propaganda officer said he's now just a 'puppet leader'
He claims the Organization and Guidance Department hold the real power
Pyongyang in lockdown with even the elite banned from entering or leaving
PUBLISHED: 08:10 GMT, 3 October 2014 | UPDATED: 12:50 GMT, 3 October 2014

A former North Korean counter-intelligence officer has claimed that Kim Jong-Un is no longer in control of the nation and is now just a 'puppet leader'.

Jang Jin-sung, who used to be an influential officer in Kim Jong-il's propaganda division, made the sensational assertion at a September conference in Holland attended by several elite exiles, it's been reported.

The capital, Pyongyang, meanwhile, has been placed into lockdown with even the elite banned from entering or leaving, according to a respected news site. This adds weight to Jin-sung's claim, as a North Korean expert said that this kind of measure is only put in place when a coup has taken place - or is suspected. 

Jin-sung said that Kim Jong-Un was actually overthrown in 2013 and that the political strings in North Korea are being pulled by the powerful Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), which used to report directly to Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-Un's father. 

North Korea is currently embroiled in a sort of civil war, he said in his speech.

Some officials want to keep the communist status quo, he said, others are open to elements of capitalism being introduced.

He told Vice News: 'On one hand, it's people who want to maintain a regime monopoly. On the other hand, it's not like people are fighting against the regime, but in a policy sense they want to take advantage to get influence. It's not actually consciously civil war, but there are these two incompatible forces at play.'

Remco Breuker, a professor of Korean Studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands, which hosted the conference, backs-up Jin-sung's statements.

He told the news site: 'The real power resides within that one department, the OGD, that was groomed to bureaucratic perfection by Kim Jong-il. It serves him [Kim Jong-Un], but it more serves the legacy of Kim Jong-il. Those don't always coincide.' 

Jin-sung believes that the current North Korean regime will collapse in the near future and that Kim Jong-Un could be replaced by one of his brothers, either Kim Jong-nam, 43, or Kim Jong-chul, 33.

Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and an authority on North Korean affairs, told The Telegraph that the current lockdown in the capital - revealed by the New Focus International news web site this week - could mean that the regime has become dangerously unstable.

He said: 'This sort of action suggests there has either been an attempted coup or that the authorities there have uncovered some sort of plot against the leadership.

'If it is a military-backed coup, then the situation in Pyongyang will be very dangerous and I have heard reports that Kim has been moved out of the capital.' 

State media acknowledged for the first time last month that Kim Jong-Un, who assumed power in North Korea when his father died in 2011, was suffering from 'discomfort' due to unspecified health reasons, prompting speculation over what ails him.

North Korea, founded by the young Kim's grandfather when a post-Japanese colonised Korean peninsula was divided into North and South in 1945, is a hereditary dictatorship - making the health of its leaders an especially sensitive subject.

Kim, who is 31 and frequently the centrepiece of the state propaganda machine, has not been photographed by official media since appearing at a concert alongside his wife on September 3. 
Footage from an event with key officials in July showed him walking with a limp.

It was reported that he has piled on so much weight that he has fractured both his ankles and remains in hospital after an operation.

The leader of the impoverished nation is estimated to have ballooned to 20 stone as a result of fine wining and dining - putting enormous pressure on his feet and legs. 

A source who has recently returned to the South Korean capital, Seoul, from the North said Kim is still in hospital under guard from his personal protection team.

Obese Kim is believed to have sprained then fractured his ankles during a gruelling tour of military bases and factories in shoes with Cuban heels to give him a little more height and a physical appearance of more authority. 

The leader got a taste for Swiss cheese while a student in Switzerland - and is understood to love it so much that he imports vast quantities, despite Western sanctions.

'He has become noticeably overweight since he came to power,' said the un-named intelligence official.

This is not the first time Kim Jong Un has been missing from public view. For most of June 2012, six months after coming to power, state media failed to report on or photograph him for 23 days. He resurfaced the next month at a dolphinarium. 

No comments: