Friday, January 16, 2009

Neutral Hydrogen Escaping Earth

This item begs the question of how much uncharged hydrogen is flowing out of the sun itself and then been added to the Earth. While we are at it, how much uncharged hydrogen are we encountering on our trip through space? These are all good questions that this paper naturally asked. Before, we had no idea of course that such a phenomenon even existed.

The day is rapidly approaching where we can map the energy and particle flows of near space in some detail. Before that day, I hope that the focus stays on data collection.

We really cannot make too much of the snippets we get.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Cluster_Detects_Invisible_Escaping_Ions_999.html

Cluster Detects Invisible Escaping Ions

by Staff Writers
Paris, France (ESA) Jan 15, 2009

http://www.spacedaily.com/images/cluster-ions-flowing-from-polar-cap-towards-magnetotail-bg.jpg

For the first time, it has been possible to quantify the amount of hydrogen naturally escaping each year from the Earth's atmosphere. This hydrogen outflow has been shown to be of the order of thousands of tons. The result was obtained by applying a new analytical method to a unique set of electric field data collected by the European Space Agency's Cluster mission. The escaping hydrogen has previously been invisible to classical particle detectors on satellites due to its very low energy.

Quantifying the loss processes of our atmosphere is important not only for providing a better understanding of the physical phenomena in near-Earth space, but also for understanding the evolution of atmospheres on other planets, such as Venus or Mars.

Prior to the space age, scientists believed that the magnetic environment of the Earth was mainly filled with particles of solar origin, forming an immense comet-like cloud of electrified gas surrounding our planet.

Later, observations made by scientific satellites revealed that hydrogen, oxygen and helium ions can escape from the Earth's upper atmosphere into space from regions near the Earth's poles (Figure 1). These escaping ions will be lost to the solar wind or trapped in the plasma sheet - the central region of the magnetic tail. There, they can undergo acceleration processes and, in a kind of boomerang effect, return back to Earth with higher energy, thus posing a hazard to satellites and astronauts.

Last year, a report based on Cluster data revealed the dominant mechanism driving the escape (see Cluster examines Earth-escaping ions). However, to date, an accurate estimation of the annual amount of matter leaking out into space has remained elusive.

The reason is actually simple. Most of these ions are too cold to be observed by scientific satellites, since the potential of a sunlit spacecraft exceeds the equivalent energy of these ions (~ 1 eV). The low-energy ions are thus repelled by the spacecraft and cannot even reach the onboard particle detectors.

PhD student Erik Engwall from Uppsala University and the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (Uppsala, Sweden) challenged this question using electric field data sets measured by two instruments, which use different techniques, on the Cluster satellites. When operated in a cold, flowing plasma, these two instruments show large differences, since one of them is greatly affected by the presence of such an environment.

While first seen as a disturbance or interference of the measurements, Engwall and colleagues have developed a new method taking advantage of these differences to reveal the presence of cold ions (mostly hydrogen at high altitudes) and to determine their flow velocity. The outcome of this new data analysis method applied to Cluster data (see Figure 2) is detailed in the January 2009 edition of Nature Geoscience .

"Not only does our new method show the presence of cold ions in the distant tail lobes, but our quantitative estimation shows that these cold ions dominate in both flux and density. The so far invisible cold plasma outflows constitute a major part of the net loss of matter from the Earth", concludes Engwall, the lead author of this study.

"This
scientific discovery shows once again a clear advantage of measuring key physical parameters on the same satellite using different experimental means", says Philippe Escoubet, Cluster project scientist at the European Space Agency.

MRI Resolution Leap at IBM

This item is extraordinary news. I do not pre3tend to know the present level of MRI resolution, but have the sense that it was fuzzy at scales that mattered. You certainly were unable to use it as a final diagnostic tool in cases such as heart disease. After all, an angiogram is a method of eyeballing the artery blockage.

This new level of resolution changes everything. It now makes the MRI the primary diagnostic for all these internal problems.

It also gives us a well resolved control system for sending tools into the body whose size is super small. Not quite floating through the blood stream but certainly able to imagine running a needle probe with vastly more capability than today.

This also sets the stage for computerized tomography that is capable of been amazingly accurate. This will lead to computerized diagnostics that will be revolutionary for medicine.

INTERN DAILY

IBM makes MRI scans 100 million times better

by Staff Writers
San Francisco (AFP) Jan 13, 2009
IBM on Tuesday said it has enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technology 100-million-fold, paving the way to one day see what is going on at molecular levels in people's bodies.

IBM researchers working with the Center for Probing the Nanoscale at Stanford University in California have created a microscope that, with further development, could give 3D images of proteins.

"This technology stands to revolutionize the way we look at viruses, bacteria, proteins, and other biological elements," said Mark Dean, vice president of strategy and operations for IBM Research.

The microscope takes advantage of "magnetic resonance force microscopy" (MRFM) that detects miniscule amounts of magnetism.

The imaging technique can peer below surfaces of cells without damaging organic material, according to IBM.

The technique was used on a tobacco mosaic virus measuring just 18 nanometers across and achieved resolution down to four nanometers. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter.

"MRI is well known as a powerful tool for medical imaging, but its capability for microscopy has always been very limited," said IBM Research manner of nanoscale studies Dan Rugar.

"Our hope is that nano MRI will eventually allow us to directly image the internal structure of individual protein molecules and molecular complexes, which is key to understanding biological function.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Nevada Geothermal Energy

This is taken from a corporate site in the business. My main reason for posting this is the map that shows the extent of available geothermal energy in the USA. It is all about the extent of the resource in Nevada. The whole state is shown to be underlain by available 100C water.

That means saturated steam can be flowed to surface almost everywhere. The power resource is huge and by itself large enough to justify a high power trunk line both to California and to Chicago and points East and South from there.

The picture of the process is also good and the first I have seen with all the features. If the map means anything, then thousands of facilities can be built in with conjunction with Reverse Rankin Engines to convert the waste water heat.

This is a natural energy resource that can be totally clean to operate. As important, it is convenient to work around in Nevada with lots of accessible terrain.

This report also has a lot of reference links at the end.

Geothermal Energy: A Natural Source of Clean Power

Geothermal Brochure - click here to download in pdf format (4.1Mb)

World Geothermal Power Generation 2001 – 2005

By Ruggero Betani - Enel, Generation and Energy Management - Renewable Energy - Geothermal Production

This is a article that was published by special permission in the Geothermal Resource Council Bulletin May/June 2006 issue, Vol. 35, No. 3. This is a review of all the country update papers submitted to the World Geothermal Congress (WGC 2005) from countries in which geothermal electricity is currently being generated. To read more
click here to download in pdf format (1.13Mb)Geothermal energy (literally heat from the earth) has become the "green" energy alternative of choice because it is natural, clean, renewable, reliable, efficient and inexpensive to operate. The western U.S.A. has a generous endowment of geothermal potential. Nevada occupies the area of highest crustal heat flow in North America, thanks to increased magmatic activity related to plate tectonics.Today, Nevada is one of the top producers of geothermal power, with 318 MW installed capacity. Geothermal energy provides about 9% of northern Nevada's electricity with 16 power plants operating at 12 geothermal sites. Nevada holds the largest amount of untapped geothermal resources in the US with a potential for 2,500 to 3,700 MW of electricity.

Geothermal heat can be harnessed for clean electrical power generation wherever there is high heat flow in deep, fractured rock formations and a shallower, non-fractured or sealed caprock.

Ground water in the deep fractures becomes heated and rises to form a geothermal reservoir under the cap rock. Production wells are typically drilled one to two km deep to bring the hot water (at least 150°C) up to surface where it flashes to steam. The steam is then used to drive turbines for generating electricity and the residual water is pumped back down injection wells to recharge the reservoir.

· U.S. Department of Energy - Geothermal
http://www.energy.gov/energysources/geothermal.htm

· Geo-Heat Center, Oregon Institute of Technology, Geothermal Information and Technology Transfer
http://geoheat.oit.edu

· International Geothermal Association
http://iga.igg.cnr.it/index.php

· Geothermal Energy in California
http://www.energy.ca.gov/geothermal

· Geothermal Energy Association
http://www.geo-energy.org/

· Geothermal Resources Council
http://www.geothermal.org

· Geothermal Education Office
http://www.geothermal.marin.org

· Energy & Geoscience Institute
http://www.egi.utah.edu

· B.C. Sustainable Energy Association (BCSEA)
http://www.bcsea.org/sustainableenergy/geothermal.asp

Enceladus Life Lab

The forth hypothesis supported is the recent paper on an experiment conducted over twenty years in which appropriate precursors were placed into very cold storage. It was found that interesting chemistry occurred over time in the ice fractures.

Text books imagine life been formed in a nasty looking but still hot or hotter environment. It appears much more likely that while hot will certainly exist it will be buried under a mile of water, carbon dioxide and methane ice. That makes visiting this moon a rather likely milestone in our understanding of the formation of at the least, the precursors of life.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=30293

The Possible Origin and Persistence of Life on Enceladus and Detection of Biomarkers in the Plume

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Friday, January 9, 2009

The jets of icy particles and water vapor issuing from the south pole of Enceladus are evidence for activity driven by some geophysical energy source

. The vapor has also been shown to contain simple organic compounds, and the south polar terrain is bathed in excess heat coming from below. The source of the ice and vapor, and the mechanisms that accelerate the material into space, remain obscure. However, it is possible that a liquid water environment exists beneath the south polar cap, which may be conducive to life. Several theories for the origin of life on Earth would apply to Enceladus. These are (1) origin in an organic-rich mixture, (2) origin in the redox gradient of a submarine vent, and (3) panspermia. There are three microbial ecosystems on Earth that do not rely on sunlight, oxygen, or organics produced at the surface and, thus, provide analogues for possible ecologies on Enceladus. Two of these ecosystems are found deep in volcanic rock, and the primary productivity is based on the consumption by methanogens of hydrogen produced by rock reactions with water. The third ecosystem is found deep below the surface in South Africa and is based on sulfur-reducing bacteria consuming hydrogen and sulfate, both of which are ultimately produced by radioactive decay. Methane has been detected in the plume of Enceladus and may be biological in origin. An indicator of biological origin may be the ratio of non-methane hydrocarbons to methane, which is very low (0.001) for biological sources but is higher (0.1-0.01) for nonbiological sources. Thus, Cassini's instruments may detect plausible evidence for life by analysis of hydrocarbons in the plume during close encounters. Astrobiology 8, 909-919.

Astrobiology. October 2008, 8(5): 909-919.

Hamas and Iran

The Israeli operation against Hamas is unfolding as we predicted a couple of weeks ago and is likely well on the way to completion. The objective is to dig up and destroy every Hamas asset including any fool desirous of martyrdom. There is no creditable diplomatic activity that will even slow this process down.

The residents of Gaza will then be in a position to take control of their own destiny if they have the stomach for it. The remaining living members of Hamas will be badly shaken.

This represents one more incremental step in the resolution of the historic conflict between Israel and the Islamic world. The door is now open for the Palestinian political infrastructure to assert real command and control and to enter into a settlement with Israel that can last. A chastened Hamas may stay in the background and learn to behave.

Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon after claiming a great victory have good reason to keep their heads down. Everyone likes to savor success even when it is at best a Pyrrhic victory when your side did most of the dying and burning. Next time the Israelis will be providing the Hamas treatment and will come fully prepared.

A more difficult situation is the Iranian standoff. Obama has signaled a williness to open discussions. This is something that I fully support. Isolating petty dictators, whatever their stripe has ever proven to be at best a simple failure. It is a failure because it permits the targeted leader to fully deploy homeland security apparatus in his country under visible duress and pushes him into an accommodation with your stronger enemies.

At present we are getting buzz regarding a possible Israeli air raid on Iranian nuclear targets. It is not going to happen because it really does need US cooperation for air space access. The news that such a request was turned down was a forcible reminder to the Iranians that the USA is shielding them.

Iran is still a problem that belongs to the USA. The good news is that the leadership is aging out and burning out their internal political support. The challenge is to contain their nuclear enthusiasms while nature takes its course as happened to the USSR. It has served their ends to be paymasters for the thugs in Gaza and Lebanon and Syria. At the same time, those same thugs have depleted their political capital by accepting Iran’s money and are all seriously isolated.

The present danger is that these folks will see it as advantageous to humiliate the new president in some way or the other. That has been their folly to date. Can you imagine now different the Middle East would look today had the Iranians not humiliated Carter with the hostage crisis? It was an Iranian ego trip at the time that utterly backfired and set the diplomatic stage for the Iraq – Iran war. And everything else that followed including the ongoing support for their clients in Gaza and Lebanon.

What has changed? The end of the oil age has been announced and everyone is now on notice that the globe will now move heaven and earth to leave the rest in the ground. This war is now been fought economically and Iran political structure is an oil financed theocracy that has failed to advance the internal economy significantly. This contradiction is now been exposed as pressures build.

In the long term they could be as bankrupt as the old USSR and naturally vulnerable to internal upheaval and the impact of external pressure.

In the long term they and their clients are on a downward spiral of systemic failure that no amount of American cash can stave off.

Let us hope that Prime Minister Whack Job who is great at overplaying his hand to the local rabble does not convince someone outside Iran that he can deliver before he is bundled of to retirement. At least they are pretty quick about that in Iran.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Noel Sheppard on Ice Age Prediction

This article outlines the arguments for the very reasonable expectation that the Earth is close to swinging back into a full blown ice age for another 100,000 years. For starters, our interpretation of the proxies confirm just such a repeating cycle. And if the past is a guide for the future, then the ice age should kick in soon.

In fact, this position is surely the uncontroversial one. I happen to disagree with this position but for reasons that will be controversial.

On the evidentiary front, the Holocene is locked into a two degree temperature spread that shows no sign of changing. No such evidence of such a narrow range appears to have existed in the previous interglacials. It is here that I would like to see a convincing review of the data. All indications that I have come across so far suggest a more likely temperature spread of several degrees and the maintenance of the ice sheets.

Yes, temperature points were achieved but I see no believable argument that the sea rose 300 feet.

They also spell out that CO2 levels peaked to present levels equivalent to that of past interglacials. This occurs as an 800 year lagging event after the temperature rises.

My principal objection to the restoration of an ice age in the north as we already have one in the south is that it is not possible to produce sea level ice outside 15 degrees south. It is equally unlikely to produce it very well up to several hundred feet above sea level. Most of the lands outside the mountains are lousy candidates for ice formation. What is more, with the exception of Greenland, all the lands including the Arctic Islands are effectively ice free.

In fact Greenland is unable to sustain an ice cap anywhere over ocean even over the North Pole. This is all because the Gulf Stream is way too powerful as a heat transfer machine.

For ice age conditions to return we must shut down the Gulf Stream. No more no less. At present, this could only happen if the sun reduced its output by a massive percentage. Yet water evaporation would also collapse depriving those ice fields of a supply of snow.

Thus we return to my core conjecture. The ice age ended permanently because the global crust was shifted 12900 years ago taking the northern ice cap thirty degrees south to the center of Hudson Bay. This took the Caribbean out of cooler temperate water into the tropics to produce the necessary hot water of the Gulf Stream.

This explanation also eliminates the many objections thrown at the very idea of an ice age from the very beginning and since conveniently forgotten.

The evidence is discussed more fully in my article ‘Pleistocene Nonconformity’ best seen on Viewzone.com

Global Warming Update: 'Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age'
By Noel Sheppard

January 11, 2009 - 11:57 ET

As Democrats and their president-elect -- with invaluable assistance from their media minions -- continue spreading climate hysteria in order to
raise taxes and redistribute wealth, a possibly inconvenient truth has just been presented to the international community: "The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science."

Additionally, the entire bogus manmade global warming theory that climate alarmists and their surrogates have been forcing down the throats of the citizenry "is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change."

Such was
reported by Russia's Pravda Sunday, and it not only goes quite counter to the junk science being espoused by folks like Nobel Laureate Al Gore and his accomplices James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt, but it has also been regularly proffered by many of the real scientists and climatologists around the world that global warming loving media not only refuse to cite and/or interview, but also disgracefully ridicule as deniers and flat earthers.

According to Pravda, it is Gore, Hansen, Schmidt, and all their sycophant devotees that are the flat earthers who are distracting the world from a much more serious climate threat (emphasis added throughout):

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Sounds much like what the realist side has been saying for years, doesn't it? But it gets better:

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

Sounds exactly like what the realists claim, and have been claiming, correct? But there's more:

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose [sic] their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

The conclusion:

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

For what it's worth, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi
told Glenn Beck last Tuesday that Russia's Vladimir Putin may have cut supplies of gas from the Ukraine to Europe because he believes the globe is about to go into a cooling phase, and controlling natural gas will give his country a great deal of added power on that continent.

Maybe Putin was aware of this article about to be published by Pravda?

Regardless, it's going to be very interesting to see how much this report gets covered here in America where our media, regardless of how cold it is or how cold it might get, still believe Al Gore.

Stay tuned.

Post facto thought-provoker: the climate alarmists regularly proffer that America and the world, regardless of whether or not AGW theory becomes prophecy, should prepare for that possibility. Not doing so in their view would be foolish.

Well, what if the realists who believe we're entering another serious cooling phase are right? Wouldn't it be foolish for us not to prepare for that outcome?

After all, as most American residences and structures were built during the recent warming phase, they're not prepared for significantly colder temperatures. Neither is our current electricity grid or our supply of natural gas and heating oil.

Also, it is MUCH easier to deal with warmer temperatures than cooler ones. Maybe more important, a lot more people die from the cold than the heat.

As such, using the alarmist argument that it's foolish not to prepare for a possible outcome, and given the greater consequences involved in a global cooling, shouldn't we be allocating more resources and energy to preparing for it?

How might we accomplish this? Well, with the economy in a serious recession, and Congress considering a stimulus package, how about one that offers tax credits to individuals and businesses that upgrade their heating systems, improve insulation, and install double-pane windows?

Such purchases would not only prepare the nation for a possible cooling, but also fuel the economy and create jobs.

While we're at it, as we're going to need more heating oil, maybe we should fast-track the licensing of new refinery construction so that the inventory of such will be on the upswing thereby reducing the likelihood of price spikes from future supply constraints. Such construction would also create jobs.

Of course, if we are going to need more heating oil, we should remove the current impediments to exploration and drilling both offshore and in the nation's oil shale-rich interior.

Without question, if Pravda and the hundreds of climate realists predicting a cooling are right, America needs to prepare for it. Given the current state of our economy, proactive solutions should be looked at as sound investments in our nation's future with the ancillary benefit of much-needed job creation.

Or is this too logical for global warming-obsessed politicians and media?

Bronze in Peru and South America

Anyone who has read my posts on the Bronze Age Atlantean copper trade with the Americas that lasted possibly for a thousand years will understand that the major possible weakness in such a conjecture would be the lack of bronze artifacts in the Andes in particular, which was a primary source of both high grade copper ores and tin ores. The evidence of mining both was extensive.

Of course this may be anything but real bronze but let us assume it is assayed as a creditable bronze.

Again, the little that I can see suggests only more recent sources. This is however an artifact of the usual problem of archeology. That is, it was not there, so do not dig so deep and that copper was money. You paid your taxes with it. That meant that copper produced in 4000 BC was reworked over and over again until it hit 1492 as something almost recent.

Any way, bronze alloying was clearly understood in the Andes. They do not mention age so we can assume that it was recent because it is identified as Inca.

Once again lack of evidence is not evidence of lack. Now if we could determine if the Bolivian tin mines were worked in pre Columbian times.

After saying that, I located a paper written back in 1915 that essentially confirms the full development of bronze technology and the use of refined tin for its manufacture. The copy on the internet is an OCR of a scanned document and tables and illustrations are trashed as are footnote numbers.

I cleaned it up as best as possible so that you can at least read the text. The visible technical expertise is excellent. These guys knew their way around an assay lab.

The take home information, contrary to published position in far too many books that we are expected to rely on is that a fully developed bronze making culture, directly equivalent to the bronze making culture of Europe existed. Proving it is ultimately contemporaneous is a task of digging deep enough at the right place.

Again recall just how much digging has been required to collect the few artifacts that we have found in Europe. This stuff was money and if they did not bury them as grave goods, we have a problem.

I have added the reformatted and edited version of the paper at the end of this blog as the original copy is a mess.


http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/Noticia.aspx?id=6KnV5zLC+pI=



277 bronze artifacts found at Archaeological Park of Sacsayhuaman


http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/DownloadPhoto.aspx?myPhoto=mXzkcHzgSq4=




277 bronze Artifacs found at Archaeological Park of Sacsayhuaman located in Cusco, Peru. Photo: ANDINA / INC-Cusco.

Cusco, Dec. 17 (ANDINA).- Skilled workers and professional staff of Peru's National Institute of Culture in Cusco (INC) founded 277 bronze artifacts (champi) when conducting archaeological research at the Archaeological Park of Sacsayhuaman located on the outskirts of Cusco

179 plumbs (cylindrical cone-shaped weights) of different types and 98 nose rings were discovered inside the enclosure No. 06 of the archaeological site of Inkacárcel that, according to preliminary investigations, was a warehouse or "qolqa".

The director of the archeological park, Washington Camacho, said that these artifacts were found with decomposed human remains, and burned products such as corn, among others.

He highlighted the importance of this discovery, which would confirm the hypothesis that Incas had different methods of construction used to build their houses, and employed high-quality techniques to control vertical alignments of their buildings.

Full text of "Prehistoric bronze in South America"

ANTHROPOLOGICAL PAPERS OF THE American Museum of Natural History.

Vol. XII, Part II.

When I tried to cut and paste this twenty page article, the system revolted. If you need it email me at arclein@yahoo.com and I will send a copy. It include many sample assays and useful discussions on bronze making limitations. You should also find the original scanned OCR copy not cleaned up on the internet, but it is the sort of thing that disappears easily.

Malaria Mosquito Lifespan Experiment

This at least is clever. It will not eradicate the disease, but if it can be made to work, it will slash the population. This then enhances and speeds the effect of other measures. It took generations to eliminate the endemic problem from Italy with the full support of the government. From that we learned that it could be done and gained an appreciation of how hard it is to drive an insect population to extinction.

Been able to enter an endemic district and initially halving the life span of the mosquito vector we surely decimate the infection rate allowing quinine to be more readily effective. This suggests that a district can be cleared much faster at a great saving of deployable resources.

The best use protocol must still be worked out and it is not the whole solution, but it smells like part of the solution. This is one thing at least that has been learned by science form the AIDs crisis. A combination of methods is very effective.

The decimation of indigenous populations in the Americas after Columbus was not caused by any one specific disease. It was caused by a succession of usually three separate infectious diseases in fairly rapid succession of a few years. The mathematics is inexorable. A serious epidemic will wipe out up to ninety percent of the population leaving a resistant residual population to rebuild. A later epidemic will hit the survivors on the same basis.

Thus a tribal population of perhaps ten villages totaling 2000 inhabitants is cut back perhaps to two villages of three hundred or so. A second infection passes through killing of the young and taking 70% of the adult population. You are now down to less than one hundred individuals, not all child bearing age and desperately looking to join another village.

A third epidemic would easily force the remnant into extinction. We have every reason to believe that this is what happened in the Americas.

Understanding this means that a protocol combination of three is likely enough to drive a biological problem to near extinction. It follows that a program of quinine, net exclusion and life span shortening will drive the mosquito to the edge of extinction which it should not recover easily.

Scientists hope to prevent malaria by cutting lifespan of mosquitoes
By Lauran Neergaard, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Old mosquitoes usually spread disease, so Australian researchers figured out a way to make the pests die younger - naturally, not poisoned.

Scientists have been racing to genetically engineer mosquitoes to become resistant to diseases like malaria and dengue fever that plague millions around the world, as an alternative to mass spraying of insecticides.

A new report Friday suggested a potentially less complicated approach: breeding mosquitoes to carry an insect parasite that causes earlier death.

Once a mosquito encounters dengue or malaria, it takes roughly two weeks of incubation before the insect can spread that pathogen by biting someone, meaning older mosquitoes are the more dangerous ones.

The Australian scientists knew that one type of fruit fly often is infected with a strain of bacterial parasite that cuts its lifespan in half.

So they infected the mosquito species that spreads dengue fever - called Aedes aegypti - with that fruit-fly parasite, breeding several generations in a tightly controlled laboratory.

Mosquitoes born with the parasite lived only 21 days - even in cosy lab conditions - compared with 50 days for regular mosquitoes, University of Queensland biologist Scott O'Neill reported in the journal Science.

Mosquitoes tend to die sooner in the wild than in a lab. So if the parasite could spread widely enough among these mosquitoes, it "may provide an inexpensive approach to dengue control," O'Neill concluded.

Theoretically, it could spread: This bacterium, called Wolbachia, is quite common among arthropod species, including some mosquito types - just not the specific types that spread dengue and malaria, the researchers noted. And Wolbachia strains are inherited only through infected mothers, with an evolutionary quirk that can help them quickly gain a foothold in a new population.

Next month, O'Neill's team begins longer studies in special North Queensland mosquito facilities that better mimic natural conditions to see how well the wMelPop strain persists as more mosquitoes are born, and what happens when they're exposed to dengue.

"By killing old mosquitoes, wMelPop could thus impact on dengue transmission," Pennsylvania State University specialists Andrew Read and Matthew Thomas concluded in an editorial accompanying the work, which they called "a major step."

It's possible that dengue viruses could evolve to incubate more rapidly if their mosquito hosts die younger, they noted, although that likely would be less of a problem than today's insecticide resistance.

Still, "determining whether it can remove enough infectious mosquitoes to be useful will be a challenge," the duo cautioned.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Doane's Monsanto Article

When you read a report like this you become very grateful in the invisible hand of the market place. The real scope and scale of the task facing us on this planet is completely outside the capacity of governments to properly tackle. As I have posted many times, presently perhaps two billion people properly participate in the global middle class, two billion are on the way in while two billion have heard about it. Over the next twenty years, that second two billion will join the global middle class and the third billion will exit subsistence farming and the like. The next twenty years will see the balance join the global middle class.

Can you imagine a government agency preparing as cogent report as this on the problem we face?

Readers of my blog know that my underlying theme is terra forming earth to accommodate the population we have and perhaps much larger populations than that.

So before you read this, recall that the Eden Machine and the biochar protocol for soil fabrication can and will increase farmland by possibly a full order of magnitude. To start with, all tropical soils can be addressed today with the biochar protocol and made intensely productive. After that we have everything else to play with thanks to the Eden Machine.

Quite simply, if you can arrive at any spot on Earth with a machine that sucks water from the atmosphere and by folding in some biochar, you can produce soil you are in business. I suppose we could even get up to putting up green houses in the far north if we cared.

Terracing hillsides in the desert will actually be good idea since erosion can be kept minimal. It will still be decades before we run out of good flat land though and we may simply never bother.

Reproduced in its entirety from Dec. 12, 2008 Doane's Agricultural Report (newsletter)

Monsanto Rep Updates 30-year Plan to Double Crop Yields Worldwide by 2030!

Editor's [Doanes] Note:

St. Louis is home to an extremely robust "Agribusiness Club" that meets monthly near our own offices here. We're members and like to network with executives from some of the nation's biggest agribusinesses with headquarters here.

This week, Mr. Michael Doane (no connection with our company) addressed theluncheon group. He's Director of Monsanto's department of Agricultural Economics and Sustainability.

I took careful notes and thought I should share his remarkably candid summary of Monsanto's ambitious "Sustainable Yield Initiative" to double global crop yields from 2000 level by the year 2030.

The global food supply faces a four-factor challenge, according to Mr. Doane:

1) Continued growth in population,
2) Rapid growth in per capita income,
3) Biofuels as a major new demand factor, and
4) Global warming that agriculture can help alleviate.

In fact, he says Monsanto's view is that agriculture lies at the "intersection" of all four challenges. The world will add "three more Chinas" over the next 22 years according to Mr. Doane, cracking the 9 billion mark in population. However, only 3% of that growth will take place in the developed world. The other 97% will occur in the developing world, where incomes are growing fastest and where the number one priority in spending higher income is on improving diets. He says rising income is an even more potent driver of food demand than population pressure. As just one example, 80% of the population of India - more than a billion people - lives on less than $2 per day.

The growth in global corn demand predates the biofuels boom, according to Doane. All the biofuels boom has done is accelerate the rate of growth. Monsanto expects global corn demand to grow by 34% over the next 10 years, and global soybean demand by 52%. Mr. Doane presented a startling chart that showed 50% of the world's "hungry" are actually subsistence farmers, unable to adequately even feed themselves on their hard-scrabble little plots.

Another 20% of the world's hungry are what Monsanto calls "rural residents," people living in remote rural areas, but not growing any of their own food. Another 10% are what Monsanto calls "fishers and herders." Only 20% of the world's hungry are what they call the "urban poor."

Land and water are serious limiting factors. Despite all we hear about the vast potential development of farmland in Brazil, Mr. Doane says the reality is that world-wide there are about 900 million hectares in production today (2.471 acres to the hectare). And, he says, Monsanto estimates there is only 10% to 12% more land with the soils and climate suitable to be developed for farming. That's about 270 million acres, world-wide. It sounds like a lot, but consider that's only what the U.S. plants to major crops currently. Think about it. We'll be adding three more "Chinas," but have only enough land to equal one more "U.S." in terms of farmland!

Furthermore, of the land already being farmed, 18% must be irrigated, and that 18% accounts for 40% of current global food production. And, as population pressures build in areas where fresh water is already scarce, it's a variation of the "food versus fuel" debate, but more basic: Water for farming versus water for people - and thirsty PEOPLE will ALWAYS outbid farmers with thirsty crops!

Another bit of helpful perspective: Direct, per capita water consumption worldwide is about four liters daily (including drinking water, food preparation, bathing, etc.)

However, if you take into account the water used by each human indirectly (to grow and process food, flush toilets, manufacture consumer goods, etc.) per capita consumption runs about 4,000 liters per day!

So what exactly IS "sustainable agriculture"? The folks at Monsanto define it as "an agricultural system that meets the food, fuel and fiber needs of the present population without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." That's a tall order given that Monsanto estimates the planet will have to produce more food between now and 2050 than the planet has produced in the last 10,000 years! And to reach that goal "sustainably," Monsanto has adopted a corporate goal of helping farmers:

• Reduce the use of inputs per unit of production by one third,
• Reduce the use of water per unit of production by one third, and
• Reduce the use of energy per unit of production by one third.

How do they intend to do that? It's a corporate strategy that rests on a three-legged stool of sorts: 1) Better breeding of seeds for yield, drought tolerance, etc., 2) Advanced biotechnology for weed and pest protection, and 3) Improved agronomic practices that maximize benefits from better breeding and biotech traits. To protect crops from pestsility" they've adopted a corporate mantra that amounts to the following equation: "More production + more conservation = a better life for farmers." Monsanto chairman Hugh Grant is fond of drilling into employees: "If farmers prosper, then we'll prosper."

Meeting the "global warming challenge" is part of the company's sustainable agriculture initiative. Though there are some scientists who still insist warming over the past 50 to 60 years is merely a "cyclical phenomenon" that has gone on for eons and has little to do with human activity on the planet, Monsanto's scientists have accepted that global warming "is real" and that "cropping patterns will have to be adaptive and change with the change in climate." They note that since global warming is blamed on excessivecarbon dioxide production, and that plants absorb CO2 and give off oxygen, agriculture has an important role to play and that it is only proper that farmers earn "carbon credits" for certain management practices that reduce their carbon footprint while increasing plant output. That's why their goals involve producing more crop and income with less chemical input and less water usage.

Monsanto cultivates partnerships, not just test plots. Mr. Doane told the St. Louis agribusiness club in concluding his luncheon address that Monsanto is partnering with groups who share their corporate vision and goals, such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Keystone Center, The Nature Conservancy, Conservation International, the African Agricultural Technology Coalition and the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization.

Question and Answer Session Summary

Question from the audience: How will you know when sustainable agriculture is achieved?

Answer: Sustainable agriculture is a characteristic of dynamic systems that maintain themselves over time. It's not a fixed end point that can be defined.

My question to Mr. Doane: You note that advancement in biotechnology is an important component of your three-pronged strategy. But biotech still has opposition among many environmental groups. How can you convince such groups that if they are serious about preserving habitat and wildlife diversity, they ought to be the biggest cheerleaders for biotechnology, not opponents?

Answer: That's a good question that comes up a lot. Progress is already happening. Here are several very encouraging signs:

• You may recall back in the 1990s, Prince Charles of the UK made headlines worldwide when he attacked biotechnology and said it belongs "only in the realm of God." Not many dared challenge him.
But just a couple of months ago, he started in against biotech again and actually tried to blame biotechnology for the global grain crisis and soaring food prices worldwide. This time, he was roundly attacked and quickly silenced by scientists and politicians alike around the world.

• Just last week, Europe approved use of second generation Round-up Ready soybeans, a dramatic change from long-standing resistance and opposition.

• Just this week, Kenya ratified a biosafety protocol that will allow greater adoption of biotech crops that offer great promise.

• Both the World Wildlife Federation and the Nature Conservancy have reversed their opposition to biotechnology.

They now promote responsible applications that can reduce dependence on chemicals and development of fragile lands that ought to be left for habitat and wildlife diversity, so long as precautions are taken to prevent unintended use. What remains to be seen is how they apply the protocol.

Another audience question: What's been the reaction of the public, politicians and the scientific community outside of Monsanto?

Answer: For the most part, people have been supportive and applaud us. Sure, we have cynics and skeptics who believe it's ridiculous to think we can double global crop yields by 2030. But at Monsanto, we believe in setting ambitious goals that really challenge our people and provide a motivational measure of progress if we fall behind the pace of advances needed to reach those goals. But is it unreasonable? We think not. Even though it took 40 years to double yields between 1960 and 2000, we think we have the need and technological tools to double yields again in 30 years.

Final question: So are you on pace? You say your 30-year window for doubling yields by 2030 actually started in 2000. Are you on pace today?

Answer: To double yields in 30 years, we need an average growth rate of about 2.3% per year. Since 2000, we've met that goal in cotton yields. We're a little short in corn yields, which have grown about 2% per year.

We're falling behind in soybeans, where we've only achieved about 1.25% yield growth since 2000. But can we do it? Absolutely. We've already seen corn yield contests top 400 bushels per acre, and soybean yield contest winners top 150 bushels per acre, just using intensive management with today's seeds and technology. All it means to us is that we've got a bigger challenge in soybeans to meet our goal than in corn or cotton. But we'll meet it. I'm confident of that.

About Monsanto's Michael Doane: Again, he's not connected with this company or our founders. In his current role with Monsanto, Mr. Doane is engaged with the agriculture and food value chain on issues relating to the economic and environmental sustainability of agriculture systems and has been involved in a variety of industry relations and sales management roles for the company for 10 years. He was raised on a diversified crop and livestock farm in western Kansas and maintains an interest in the family farming operation that is actively managed by his parents and brothers. Prior to his work for Monsanto, Mr. Doane served as the Executive Director of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers (KAWG) - a policy organization representing the interests of wheat farmers. While with the KAWG, Mr. Doane led the organization's state andnational-level policy development, lobbying, and public relations initiatives. He received a M.S. and B.S. in agricultural economics from Kansas State University and resides with his wife, Julie, his son, Morgan and daughter, Sophia here in St. Louis.

DNA Link between Ancient Peruvians and Ainu

This is a direct DNA evidence link with the Ainu. This is expected news but also news that is a little late in presenting itself. It has been understood for some time that the art of the kayak had provided means for traffic along the coast twenty thousand years ago or more.

What is more than evident though is that they were not the only folks making the trip.

My own speculation on this is that DNA work will find a surprising number of affinities between tribal populations from both East Asia and even southern Europe. We forget the dominance of hybridized European and Han population stocks that diluted uniqueness. Tribal groups exported their genes into the super tribe and the reverse was uncommon.

This process is obviously accelerating around the world and the effort to collect the related genetic information is still in infancy. It needs to be supported. Once completed, we will find many surprises.

Our conjecture regarding Bronze Age commerce means that a secondary DNA migration injected itself on the Americas for a least a millennia adding some hybridization to the gene pool. What we do not understand is the original variation that was in place.

Our conjecture regarding the Pleistocene Nonconformity makes any conjectures regarding the linkage of the American gene pool with that of Asia suspect and supports the likelihood that DNA injections from Asia were not fundamental. We have to at least consider that.


Study Reveals DNA Links Between Ancient Peruvians, Japanese

LIMA -- A study has revealed genetic links between people who inhabited northern Peru more than 1,000 years ago and Japanese, El Comercio newspaper reported Thursday.

Japanese physical anthropologist Ken-ichi Shinoda performed DNA tests on the remains of human bodies found in the East Tomb and West Tomb in the Bosque de Pomas Historical Sanctuary, which are part of the Sican Culture Archaeological Project, funded by Japan's government.

The director of the Sican National Museum, Carlos Elera, told the daily that Shinoda found that people who lived more than 1,000 years ago in what today is the Lambayeque region, about 800 kilometers (500 miles) north of Lima, had genetic links to the contemporaneous populations of Ecuador, Colombia, Siberia, Taiwan and to the Ainu people of northern Japan.

The studies will be continued on descendents of the Mochica culture, from the same region, who are currently working on the Sican Project and with people who live in the vicinity of the Bosque de Pomac Historical Sanctuary.

Peruvian archaeologist Luis Chero told El Comercio that "currently, the DNA results have great value because they can be understood to show that there were people who arrived in these zones from Asia and who then converted these zones into the great culture of the New World."

The results of the studies will be presented at an exhibit on the Sican culture that will be set up for a year at the Tokyo Museum of Science and Nature.

Also to be displayed at that exhibit will be gold, silver and copper jewelry found in the tombs of the ancient Sican rulers and priests.

2006 Letter to Harper on GW

This item is two and a half years old but has recently popped up in an item from the Morano newsletter. It is well worth reading since it was written then in the face of data that still sort of supported the warmers more than the skeptics.

What has changed is that many members of the scientific community who could be expected to support the promoted global warming dream are now having a major change of heart. The claim that the much heralded consensus which was never a consensus is and was intact is been shredded daily.

We have now entered a period in which the dissenters are piling on the bandwagon. Of course, the violent reversal of global temperatures back to the bad old days before the twenty year warming trend got going has even unnerved the true believers. We are now watching them fracture the language as they inch back from the intellectual cliff they jumped over.

It is almost as if Mother Nature was offended that Al Gore and associates got that Nobel Prize.

April 6, 2006
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=3711460e-bd5a-475d-a6be-4db87559d605

An open letter to Prime Minister Stephen Harper:

Dear Prime Minister:

As accredited experts in climate and related scientific disciplines, we are writing to propose that balanced, comprehensive public-consultation sessions be held so as to examine the scientific foundation of the federal government's climate-change plans. This would be entirely consistent with your recent commitment to conduct a review of the Kyoto Protocol. Although many of us made the same suggestion to then-prime ministers Martin and Chretien, neither responded, and, to date, no formal, independent climate-science review has been conducted in Canada. Much of the billions of dollars earmarked for implementation of the protocol in Canada will be squandered without a proper assessment of recent developments in climate science.

Observational evidence does not support today's computer climate models, so there is little reason to trust model predictions of the future. Yet this is precisely what the United Nations did in creating and promoting Kyoto and still does in the alarmist forecasts on which Canada's climate policies are based.
Even if the climate models were realistic, the environmental impact of Canada delaying implementation of Kyoto or other greenhouse-gas reduction schemes, pending completion of consultations, would be insignificant. Directing your government to convene balanced, open hearings as soon as possible would be a most prudent and responsible course of action.

While the confident pronouncements of scientifically unqualified environmental groups may provide for sensational headlines, they are no basis for mature policy formulation. The study of global climate change is, as you have said, an "emerging science," one that is perhaps the most complex ever tackled. It may be many years yet before we properly understand the Earth's climate system. Nevertheless, significant advances have been made since the protocol was created, many of which are taking us away from a concern about increasing greenhouse gases. If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.

We appreciate the difficulty any government has formulating sensible science-based policy when the loudest voices always seem to be pushing in the opposite direction. However, by convening open, unbiased consultations, Canadians will be permitted to hear from experts on both sides of the debate in the climate-science community. When the public comes to understand that there is no "consensus" among climate scientists about the relative importance of the various causes of global climate change, the government will be in a far better position to develop plans that reflect reality and so benefit both the environment and the economy.

"Climate change is real" is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural "noise." The new Canadian government's commitment to reducing air, land and water pollution is commendable, but allocating funds to "stopping climate change" would be irrational. We need to continue intensive research into the real causes of climate change and help our most vulnerable citizens adapt to whatever nature throws at us next.

We believe the Canadian public and government decision-makers need and deserve to hear the whole story concerning this very complex issue. It was only 30 years ago that many of today's global-warming alarmists were telling us that the world was in the midst of a global-cooling catastrophe. But the science continued to evolve, and still does, even though so many choose to ignore it when it does not fit with predetermined political agendas.

We hope that you will examine our proposal carefully and we stand willing and able to furnish you with more information on this crucially important topic.

CC: The Honourable Rona Ambrose, Minister of the Environment, and the Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources

- - -
Sincerely,

Dr. Ian D. Clark, professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
Dr. Tad Murty, former senior research scientist, Dept. of Fisheries and Oceans, former director of Australia's National Tidal Facility and professor of earth sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide; currently adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
Dr. R. Timothy Patterson, professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Ottawa
Dr. Fred Michel, director, Institute of Environmental Science and associate professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa
Dr. Madhav Khandekar, former research scientist, Environment Canada. Member of editorial board of Climate Research and Natural Hazards
Dr. Paul Copper, FRSC, professor emeritus, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ont.
Dr. Ross McKitrick, associate professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph, Ont.
Dr. Tim Ball, former professor of climatology, University of Winnipeg; environmental consultant
Dr. Andreas Prokoph, adjunct professor of earth sciences, University of Ottawa; consultant in statistics and geology
Mr. David Nowell, M.Sc. (Meteorology), fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, Canadian member and past chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa
Dr. Christopher Essex, professor of applied mathematics and associate director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.
* Dr. Gordon E. Swaters, professor of applied mathematics, Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, and member, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Research Group, University of Alberta (* Note: Swaters later recanted his signature on the open letter)
Dr. L. Graham Smith, associate professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.
Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, professor and Canada Research Chair in environmental studies and climate change, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria
Dr. Petr Chylek, adjunct professor, Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax
Dr./Cdr. M. R. Morgan, FRMS, climate consultant, former meteorology advisor to the World Meteorological Organization. Previously research scientist in climatology at University of Exeter, U.K.
Dr. Keith D. Hage, climate consultant and professor emeritus of Meteorology, University of Alberta
Dr. David E. Wojick, P.Eng., energy consultant, Star Tannery, Va., and Sioux Lookout, Ont.
Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, Surrey, B.C.
Dr. Douglas Leahey, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary
Paavo Siitam, M.Sc., agronomist, chemist, Cobourg, Ont.
Dr. Chris de Freitas, climate scientist, associate professor, The University of Auckland, N.Z.
Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dr. Freeman J. Dyson, emeritus professor of physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J.
Mr. George Taylor, Dept. of Meteorology, Oregon State University; Oregon State climatologist; past president, American Association of State Climatologists
Dr. Ian Plimer, professor of geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide; emeritus professor of earth sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
Dr. R.M. Carter, professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
Mr. William Kininmonth, Australasian Climate Research, former Head National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology, Scientific and Technical Review
Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, former director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Dr. Gerrit J. van der Lingen, geologist/paleoclimatologist, Climate Change Consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand
Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, professor of environmental sciences, University of Virginia
Dr. Nils-Axel Morner, emeritus professor of paleogeophysics & geodynamics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Dr. Gary D. Sharp, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, Calif.
Dr. Roy W. Spencer, principal research scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville
Dr. Al Pekarek, associate professor of geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minn.
Dr. Marcel Leroux, professor emeritus of climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS
Dr. Paul Reiter, professor, Institut Pasteur, Unit of Insects and Infectious Diseases, Paris, France. Expert reviewer, IPCC Working group II, chapter 8 (human health)
Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, physicist and chairman, Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland
Dr. Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, reader, Dept. of Geography, University of Hull, U.K.; editor, Energy & Environment
Dr. Hans H.J. Labohm, former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of International Relations) and an economist who has focused on climate change
Dr. Lee C. Gerhard, senior scientist emeritus, University of Kansas, past director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey
Dr. Asmunn Moene, past head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway
Dr. August H. Auer, past professor of atmospheric science, University of Wyoming; previously chief meteorologist, Meteorological Service (MetService) of New Zealand
Dr. Vincent Gray, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of 'Climate Change 2001,' Wellington, N.Z.
Dr. Howard Hayden, emeritus professor of physics, University of Connecticut
Dr Benny Peiser, professor of social anthropology, Faculty of Science, Liverpool John Moores University, U.K.
Dr. Jack Barrett, chemist and spectroscopist, formerly with Imperial College London, U.K.
Dr. William J.R. Alexander, professor emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Member, United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000
Dr. S. Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences, University of Virginia; former director, U.S. Weather Satellite Service
Dr. Harry N.A. Priem, emeritus professor of planetary geology and isotope geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences; past president of the Royal Netherlands Geological & Mining Society
Dr. Robert H. Essenhigh, E.G. Bailey professor of energy conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University
Dr. Sallie Baliunas, astrophysicist and climate researcher, Boston, Mass.
Douglas Hoyt, senior scientist at Raytheon (retired) and co-author of the book The Role of the Sun in Climate Change; previously with NCAR, NOAA, and the World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Dipl.-Ing. Peter Dietze, independent energy advisor and scientific climate and carbon modeller, official IPCC reviewer, Bavaria, Germany
Dr. Boris Winterhalter, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland
Dr. Wibjorn Karlen, emeritus professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
Dr. Hugh W. Ellsaesser, physicist/meteorologist, previously with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Calif.; atmospheric consultant.
Dr. Art Robinson, founder, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, Cave Junction, Ore.
Dr. Arthur Rorsch, emeritus professor of molecular genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands; past board member, Netherlands organization for applied research (TNO) in environmental, food and public health
Dr. Alister McFarquhar, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K.; international economist
Dr. Richard S. Courtney, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Aviation Industry sees Green Light

This is an update on stories earlier last year. The take home message is that the aviation industry is unexpectedly a possible earlier adopter of algae based fuels. They simply have the flexibility to make a swift conversion and the ability to finance supply.

Once others wake up to this fact it is certain that many other potential suppliers will get their act together. It is easy to envisage hauling truckloads of fuel to the airlines. It is much harder to believe that the local Exxon petrol station will welcome your appearance for half a truck load.

With the industry actively looking for a real answer to their fuel exposure, it is going to be solved fast. Recall that they were nearly bankrupted by $140 oil and the industry was thrown backwards by years on their business models.

These guys are totally motivated to exit the oil industry just as soon as possible, the devil take the hindmost.

If I were operating any form of biofuel business today, I would down tools and focus on this niche right now.
The airlines want long term contracts for supply at fixed prices which is exactly what a biofuel producer can produce.

January 7 2009
Flying on Vegetables
By
Matthew L. Wald

Crude oil from algae manufactured by Sapphire Energy for Continental Airlines. Converting the airline industry to biofuels may be easier than converting the car market.

The scheduled flight on Wednesday of a Continental Airlines 737 fueled in part by biofuels made from jatropha and algae was experimental (see my report on the state of biofuels in the airline industry from Wednesday’s paper
here). But if the fuel can be certified by international standards agencies, it could become as common as, say, ethanol added to gasoline.

It might be even more so, because the goal is a “drop-in” substitute that can be used at any percentage, in any jet or any airport fueling system.

In theory, people in the industry say, replacing petroleum in airplanes could be easier than replacing it in cars, even though jet fuel has to meet specifications that are of little concern on the highway, like weight (hauling fuel is a major use of fuel, after all), or how well it flows at 40 degrees below zero, which is a temperature big planes face for hours as they cruise in the stratosphere.

Because fuel quality has such importance to safety, some energy experts thought aviation would be the last to switch. “For 40 years we had the philosophy we’d be the ones using the last drop of oil,’’ said Carl E. Burleson, director of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Environment and Energy.

But compared to the market for gasoline or diesel, the market for jet fuel is simpler, industry experts say.

The number of fueling stations and customers are both much smaller than for motor vehicle fuel, making marketing easier. The number of engine manufacturers is smaller, too, so there are fewer parties to convince when switching to something new. And unlike the specifications for gasoline, which vary from state to state and country to country, there is a single standard for jet fuel, regardless of where it is sold.

As with substitute motor fuels, though, substitute jet fuel has mixed environmental implications. European carriers have tested fuel made from palm oil, but recent studies have persuaded some environmentalists that clearing tropical jungle to make space for palm plantations is a mistake, releasing more greenhouse gases than the new fuel will save. And the only petroleum substitute in common use now is made from coal, a switch that can save money and petroleum but makes greenhouse gas problems worse.

The precise carbon effect of using algae, jatropha or other substitutes will be studied closely and probably litigated, because airlines say they want to use such fuels to meet European regulations taking effect in the next few years, which will force them to cut carbon output or buy carbon allowances.

Ecogeek on 2008 Cleantech

Ecogeek runs out a pretty good list of innovations from 2008. The only one we have not covered is the light antenna, which is an oversight that I am sure that I will soon get to. This will perhaps remind us that we live in exciting times, and for once that means that we are not dodging bullets.

I would add the not yet visible emergence of real nanotechnology from the labs of which EEStor is a sniff. We can do it, and we are working full out to master the art with our powerful computers.

Expect to see real three dimensional manipulation as part of a manufacturing protocol shortly.

7 Cleantech Stories of 2008 that will Change Everything

Written by Hank Green

Thursday, 01 January 2009

It can sometimes be a little unclear (especially first day of a new year) how the previous year changed the world. No one guessed in 1946 that the Magnetron Spencer Percy was developing for use in a RADAR system (and that subsequently melted a candy bar in his pocket) would one day become the microwave oven. But I like to think that we can make some pretty good guesses about which of this year's innovations are going to be with us, and changing our world, for a good long time.

Here's my list of the top ten clean tech innovations of 2008.

Light Antennas

You know how you can capture and produce radio waves with antennas? Well, what if you could built an antenna so small, it could capture and emit light? The
first large array of these nano-antennas was produced this year, and the possibilities for them are endless. They may become efficient light sources, efficient solar panels, or simple ways to transfer energy we feel as heat into energy that we don't feel at all, making them a kind of passive climate control system.

President Barack Obama

Maybe not an innovation in the traditional sense, though, I like to think that it took some innovative thinking to get this man elected president. But President Obama's Administration has already grown to include clean technology advocates and researchers, and carries with it promises of green collar jobs, carbon markets, and restored protections for many of our imperiled ecosystems.

EEStor Begins to Emerge

The power storage company, EEstor, which we're still not 100% sure isn't full of crap
did finally begin to tell us some things about their miraculous-sounding power storage technology. If true, vehicles could have batteries lighter than gas tanks, that could charge in five minutes and would never degrade. These ceramic "electrical energy storage units" have not yet seen the light of day (or independent verification) but they do already have contracts with Lockheed Martin and plans to deliver their first unit to an electric car company shortly.

The Gas Crunch

Hey...remember back when gas was freaking ridiculously expensive? Well, while the market may not (the Ford F-150 is, once again, America's most popular vehicle) the innovations that poured into the market to try and help consumers deal with high gas prices will not go away. Better hybrid systems, more efficient engines, massive investments in biofuels, the re-emergence of diesel in America were all direct implications of skyrocketing gas prices.

Solar at Grid Parity

The cost of delivering electrons to the grid has gone up a little bit in the past year, and the cost of delivering electrons to the grid using solar power has dropped dramatically.
The first solar electrons costing roughly the same amount as natural gas electrons were produced this year. There's no reason to think that this trend will end, as natural gas gets more expensive, and solar systems get more efficient. In fact, one company is already promising solar power at the same price as coal!

Project Better Place Expands Wildly

While I'm still not 100% sure that Better Place, with it's many battery swapping stations, cell phone-like payment plans and "one sized battery fits all" platform makes the most sense, they have managed to get a lot of governments to bite.
California, Hawaii, Australia and Denmark have all signed deals with Agassi's gigantically ambitious electric car program. It could all become extremely passe if EEStor's technology pans out. But otherwise it's one of the few solutions that will work now, instead of waiting for battery technology to catch up with our goals as car drivers.

Pickens Counterbalances Gore with a Real Vision

We've tired of Al Gore. The love affair was great while it lasted, but he's been attacked from too many angles to really latch onto his message anymore. But what about an ultra-conservative, Texas oil man? Now that's the kind of champion clean technology needs! And not only does he provide a different perspective, he provides a clear plan for how he wants to change our energy future. And while it might be a plan that would make him one of the richest people in the world, it's also actually a pretty good plan.

Casimir Levitation

This is a nifty discovery and an obviously important one. And yes, you had better read up on the Casimir effect.

This experiment means that we can control the effects sign and this now gives us a powerful tool for designing things in the nanometer scaled world. You may now let your imagination run wild.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

http://www.medgadget.com/archives/img/levitating_gold_ball.jpg

Harvard University researchers have finally observed the repulsive Casimir force, a quantum phenomenon that was predicted back in the 1940's. The force comes into effect only when two particles locate themselves very close to each other, provided a few other parameters are true (see Wikipedia entry:
Casimir effect). Now with new knowledge of how to use the force (no pun intended), scientists should be able to build more complicated nano devices.

From Harvard:

“Repulsive Casimir forces are of great interest since they can be used in new ultra-sensitive force and torque sensors to levitate an object immersed in a fluid at nanometric distances above a surface,” said Federico Capasso, Robert L. Wallace Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), who led the study. “Further, these objects are free to rotate or translate relative to each other with minimal static friction because their surfaces never come into direct contact.”

The results from Capasso’s and his colleagues’ work will be published in tomorrow's edition of the journal Nature. Capasso's co-authors are Jeremy Munday, formerly a graduate student in Harvard's Department of Physics and presently a postdoctoral researcher at the California Institute of Technology, and V. Adrian Parsegian, senior investigator at the NIH in Bethesda, Md.

The discovery builds on previous work related to the Casimir force, which was theorized by Hendrick Casimir in 1948 as both attractive and repulsive, pulling materials together under some circumstances and pushing them apart under others.

Until now, however, researchers have only been able to measure the attractive Casimir force, which, in some cases, has created headaches for nano-engineers because it can cause the components of tiny devices to stick together. Discovery of the repulsive version of the Casimir force can potentially help researchers overcome this problem.

“When two surfaces of the same material, such as gold, are separated by vacuum, air, or a fluid, the resulting force is always attractive,” explained Capasso.

Instead of using gold-coated materials, Capasso and colleagues swapped out one of the gold surfaces for one made of silica, then immersed them both in a liquid, bromobenzene. That combination did the trick, switching the attractive Casimir force to repulsive. The Harvard researchers have filed for a U.S. patent covering nanodevices based on quantum levitation.

Harvard news office press release:
Researchers see exotic force for first time...

Image: An artist's rendering shows a gold sphere, in the foreground, immersed in bromobenzene, allowing it to levitate above a silica plate. When the plate is replaced by one of gold, as seen in the background, levitation is impossible. Image courtesy of Federico Capasso/SEAS

Friday, January 9, 2009

Cold Snap

I cannot believe that anyone has failed to notice that winter is kicking our butts this year. The surprise is to learn that the Arctic cold snap in the northern reaches has exceeded anything in northern Saskatchewan since record keeping began 116 years ago. Mother Nature is now mocking the true believers in global warming.

Any who have read my earliest posts know that I have never thought that the linkage of global temperatures to rising CO2 was a safe research strategy because historical evidence indicated we were likely dealing with normal variation and that such a strategy would surely inflict a damaging reversal. This is a rout and the true believers are becoming very quiet.

This unfortunately does nothing to promote responsible management of CO2 emissions.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has reversed and will likely be gone for decades while we wait for sunspots to pick up again. It was fun while it lasted.

The real surprise was just now fast this reversal was upon us. It took twenty years to modestly improve weather conditions in the north and a mere year or so for all that to blow away. We certainly have gained a far better understanding of the factors that affect our climate and know better what to watch. Just as we came to understand the impact of El Nino and La Nina, we surely now understand the impact of the PDO a lot better and can include it properly in our models.

If the variation of solar energy is sufficient enough to be a primary climate driver, then the Pacific Ocean is the natural transfer mechanism. It is not chaotic and it represents fifty percent of the world’s surface. It also absorbs energy very nicely. Thus it is reasonable in a simple minded way to imagine a surplus of heat expanding the warm surface waters of the Pacific into the northern edge of the Pacific basin which is certainly what happened.

Maybe our salmon fisheries will now vigorously rebound with a minimal support effort.

In the meantime, these folks are experiencing cold weather that is simply dangerous as these reports show. In this country there are times that car failure is a swift and potentially fatal disaster if you are not prepared.

Cold streak sets new record

City experiences 24 consecutive days of -25 C or lower

Rod Nickel, The StarPhoenix

Published: Tuesday, January 06, 2009

How's this for cold comfort? Saskatoon's deep freeze is likely the longest streak of low temperatures below -25 C that has numbed this city since record-keeping began in 1892.

The 24-day streak started cruelly Dec. 13 after relatively mild temperatures and continued at least through Monday, said David Phillips, Environment Canada's senior climatologist.

"That's the thing that's brutal," Phillips said from Toronto, where he was enjoying a temperature of -4.
"We can all handle a few (cold) days. It's the long haul that wears you down.

"It's really a shocker, the duration of the cold."

Phillips said he couldn't find a longer cold snap in Saskatoon's recorded weather history during a look through the records Monday. Even during the infamous January of 1950, when temperatures hit -46 and -45 (not counting any wind chill), the cold streak of -25 or lower lasted "only" 21 days.

The first two mild weeks of December kept the month from being Saskatoon's coldest ever. It still averaged -20.6, the sixth-coldest December on record and the most frigid since 1983.

Prince Albert was slightly colder in December, with an average temperature of -21.4, while Regina registered -18. Neither of those burgs have suffered a -25 streak approaching Saskatoon's, Phillips said.
The normal average temperature for Saskatoon in December is -14.3C.

The historic streak could end today. Environment Canada was forecasting a low of -23 for today, before another drop Wednesday.

There's no good news on the horizon.

January is expected to be colder than its normal mean temperature of -17, said Environment Canada meteorologist Bob Cormier. The three-month period of January through March is also expected to be colder than normal, he said.

The frigid temperatures and the bad timing of the New Year's Eve snowstorm has left city snow crews well behind schedule.

As of Monday, snowplows still hadn't touched almost one-third of the priority streets, which range from arteries such as Circle Drive and Eighth Street to bus routes and minor collector streets. The major arteries have been cleared once, but may need a second pass, said Gaston Gourdeau, manager of the city's public works branch.

Ninety per cent of bus routes are cleared, but many minor collector streets still haven't seen a snowplow.
"We're looking forward to warmer temperatures," Gourdeau said. "It's been tough for everybody."

The New Year's Eve storm was a double-whammy for snowplow operators.

Many city staff were on holidays. Hydraulic parts of heavy equipment respond more slowly, like everything else, in the cold, forcing crews to get less done than they normally would.

Gourdeau predicts snow crews will be in some neighbourhoods clearing out trouble spots by the end of the week.

He said he decided against implementing a street parking ban to speed up snow clearing for two reasons.
The city hasn't had the staff to guarantee cleanup within 72 hours until this week.

In frigid weather, it's also difficult to ask residents to move cars off the street to spots where plug-ins may be unavailable, he said.

Extreme Alaska cold grounds planes, disables cars

JUNEAU, Alaska – Ted Johnson planned on using a set of logs to a build a cabin in Alaska's interior. Instead he'll burn some of them to stay warm.

Extreme temperatures — in Johnson's case about 60 below zero — call for extreme measures in a statewide cold snap so frigid that temperatures have grounded planes, disabled cars, frozen water pipes and even canceled several championship cross country ski races.

Alaskans are accustomed to subzero temperatures but the prolonged conditions have folks wondering what's going on with winter less than a month old.
National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Brown said high pressure over much of central Alaska has been keeping other weather patterns from moving through. New conditions get pushed north or south while the affected area faces daily extremes.

"When it first started almost two weeks ago, it wasn't anything abnormal," Brown said. "About once or twice every year, we get a good cold snap. But, in this case, you can call this an extreme event. This is rare. It doesn't happen every year."

Temperatures sit well below zero in the state's various regions, often without a wisp of wind pushing down the mercury further.

Johnson lives in Stevens Village, where residents have endured close to two weeks of temperatures pushing 60 below zero.

The cold has kept planes grounded, Johnson said. Food and fuel aren't coming in and they're starting to run low in the village, about 90 miles northwest of Fairbanks.

Johnson, whose home has no heater or running water, said he ventures outside only to get more logs for burning and to fetch water from a community facility. He's been saving the wood to build a cabin as a second home, but that will have to wait a few years now because the heat takes precedence.

"I've never seen it this cold for this long," he said. "I remember it 70 below one time, but not for a week and a half."

In Anchorage, Alaska's largest city, residents are used to lows of about 10-degree temperatures in January — not 19 below zero, which is what folks awoke to Wednesday morning.

Temperatures finally settled to about 10 below at midday, but that was cold enough to cancel races in the U.S. Cross Country Ski Championships.

Skiers won't compete unless it's warmer than 4 below zero, but the numbers have ranged between 10 below and 15 below.

That has led to four days of canceled or postponed competition with organizers hoping to get a set of races under way on Thursday, the event's final day.

Meanwhile, in Juneau, the state's capital is enjoying balmy weather by comparison with lows in the single digits.