Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Why We Should Worry About China

25188192_10210467791947338_2076314681_n.png
 
There are ample reasons to worry about China, but the most serious is that their debt service that can no longer be over ridden by further rapid growth.  Even with massive debt forgiveness, much of this capital cannot earn enough.

Sorting this out will be messy.  Add to this that China is attempting a planned China Inc to manage assets world wide and derive revenues to support internal operations and there is plenty of room for future worries.  The USA was bad enough but China Inc is likely worse.

The obvious risk is that they simply lose it.   Less obvious is that they wonderfully succeed and retain their massive inefficiencies.  Again messy.  Or we may simply muddle through as has been the case.


Why We Should Worry About China

Tags Financial MarketsGlobal EconomyBusiness Cycles
 
8 hours agoDaniel Lacalle
 
https://mises.org/wire/why-we-should-worry-about-china

Many of our readers might remember the late 80s. There were hundreds of movies, songs and books about the inevitable Japanese economic invasion. The ones of you that did not live that period can see that it did not happen.

Why? Because the Japanese growth miracle was built on a massive debt bubble and, once it burst, the country fell into stagnation for the better part of two decades. It still has not recovered.

China presents many similarities in its economic model. Massive debt, overcapacity and central planned growth targets.

Many economists and investors feel relieved because China is still growing at 6.8%. They should think twice. On one side, that level of growth is clearly overestimated. By any realistic measure of growth, China’s Gross Domestic Product annual increase is significantly lower than the official figures show. Patrick Artus, global chief economist at Natixis Global Asset Management, as well as other economists have noted that there has been a significant decoupling since mid-2014 between the government’s official growth reading and more reliable indicators. On the other hand, even if we agree with the official readings, this growth has been achieved using a worryingly high level of debt.

Chinese growth of 6.5% per annum came with more than 14% annual growth in money supply. Total debt has quadrupled since the financial crisis, and official messages of “measures to curb indebtedness” have shown a different reality. China has added more debt in 2017 than the The European Union, the US, UK, and Japan combined. The IMF estimates debt as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product may rise from 235% to almost 300% by 2022.

This increase in debt would not be a concern if it yielded solid economic returns, but the latest figures show that more than 40%of the Hang Seng Index components are adding debt to repay interests, and China needs now four times more debt to generate the same growth as in 2007. Now bond yields are soaring, which triggered a rise in bond cancellations. Companies postponed or canceled a total of 71 bond issuances worth a combined $13.42 billion in November, according to Reuters. Although bond yields are not at excessive levels, with the Chinese 10-year bond still below 4%, most companies and households cannot absorb a modest rise in yields due to the weak returns and revenues they have. A massive housing bubble has made high-risk debt rise.

Overcapacity has soared, and industries face the impossible task of keeping capacity and jobs as well as deleveraging. And exporting its way out of overcapacity is not easy. In 1992, only two G20 countries had China as one of their top five export destinations, now there are fifteen. However, in 1992 China had a productive capacity deficit, now it has 60% overcapacity, and – as it cannot destroy that excess in a centralized planned economy – it intends to export it. But this is almost impossible to achieve when excess capacity is an endemic problem all over the world.

It is true that Chinese imbalances are mostly local-currency denominated, that household savings rate is healthy and that the high productivity sectors are doing well, but that was the case with Japan in the late 80s as well. And none of these factors offset the large risks created by the housing bubble and excess debt taken by state-owned conglomerates and private businesses. These risks are highly disinflationary and are likely going to impact long-term growth and inflation expectations globally. As China tries to export its way out of the bubble, the impact on prices and trade all over the world should not be underestimated. We should not ignore the financial risks either. Although China’s financial concerns are mostly concentrated in its own system and currency, this does not mean that worldwide spill-over effects can be ruled out.

China is a big risk, and the best outcome for all the world economies is that the government forgets impossible growth targets and focuses on reducing the rising financial imbalances. All of us will prefer a modest Chinese growth-rate rather than an inevitable crisis.

Flying Cocoon / Humanoid Phenomenon

 

If you are in no particular hurry, it makes some sense to wear a gravity belt in order to move about easily enough.  From that it also makes sense to wear a shroud able to produce a form of invisibility but not so good as to stand up in every situation.

It has not been encountered often though so it is likely quite rarely used.

This technology that we now partially understand and also anticipate as we do know how to get there from here.

It is noteworthy that they use strong mind projection to rid themselves on unwelcome visitors..  This is also not unexpected and not to be taken as intent or seriously at all.  Strikes me as a great tool with which to get rid of a curious bull.

 

Flying Cocoon / Humanoid Phenomenon 

Thursday, December 14, 2017 

Reports of flying beings encased in shrouds or cocoons are fascinating, and possibly a type of bio-UFO. Here are a few interesting reports:

Chula Vista, CA - 2010-03-03 - 1:30PM: I was in a friend's backyard and he suddenly starts telling me that he had been mowing his lawn and just by happenstance caught something out the corner of his eye. He looked up to see what he immediately called a 'Flying Man.' He looked at it for 4-5 seconds and yelled out to his brother, who was working with him, to come quickly and see this thing. His brother ignored him. He ran over and dragged his brother to the spot. His brother could not see it and walked away. He watched for a few seconds and again went and dragged his brother to the spot at which time neither could see it.

Viewed from its left side and below, it was a 7' tall man in a copper-colored fitted shell that was metallic-looking reflective material. It was 1.30 pm in the afternoon,.bright sunshine and mostly blue skies. The Flying Man was ascending at a 35 degree incline at walking speed. From its elevation he thought it might have left the ground 30 secs prior. He estimates it was eighty feet away at about 30' elevation (right over a telephone poll he used for distance) and he had a clear unimpeded view. The thing had a forward tilt, ski jumper attitude and was climbing slowly and silently.

The shape was immediately recognizable as a man wrapped in an aerodynamic shell. The hooded head and shoulders were smoothed together, the chest was large 3' plus across. It tapered down to what was obviously feet pointing down.

He really wasn't thinking about it too deeply because it didn't make sense to him. He had never heard about the flying humanoids and was relieved to have me give some credence to his account. His brother was non-responsive to the whole affair and only after I told them about this phenomenon did he think his brother might have actually seen something...which is strange because he was uncharacteristically being yelled at to come quickly. He said his brother was definitely worked up, instantly. We looked at a map and determined the starting point might well be a big church that takes up a large area.

He drew the Flying Man and captured its simplicity. The brothers are keeping their eyes to the sky. - MUFON


This encounter reminds me of an account that was sent to me in August 2015 from central Pennsylvania:


Greetings!

The incident I am about to relate happened some 50 years ago. I was visiting my grandparents who lived in an old farmhouse in central Pennsylvania. My cousin D. (one year younger) was there as well. We rose super-early each morning, as was the practice when visiting there. At Grandma's, those that did not get out of the house before breakfast got a chore list that would take all morning. Dave and I were determined to avoid that list.

The house stood on top of a hill, and was some distance from the road, with a long drive leading up to a car parking area. The ground on either side of the driveway could best be classified as untended meadow with copses of trees sporadically scattered throughout. From the car park in front of the house, you looked down and out toward the road some 500 yards away. This is where D. and I stood that morning.

There was a small stand of pine trees about halfway down the hill. These were young trees, not more than 9 feet tall. We knew these trees well, as they were the impediment to every hill-roll or sled-run we ever attempted down that slope. Today, however, we never even got to start the downhill fun.

"What the hell is THAT?" one of us asked.

"Beats the hell out of me." the other answered.

Under the nearest pine tree, there was a figure. It appeared to be made of a golden metal, which glittered in the sunlight. It was about 3 feet tall, as best as we could determine from our uphill angle. From the shoulders down, it seemed to be wrapped or swaddled in golden cloth. This extended the entire length of the creature, making it look as though it was in a form-fitted sleeping bag. On its head was a helmet or headdress, also gold. When we first saw it, it was facing to our left, so we were looking at its golden left profile. The sight of this thing made us both freeze in place, barely breathing.

We stared down at it for a time-distorted period - a minute? Suddenly, the thing changed its head. It did not TURN its head. It had been looking straight ahead, at a spot somewhere to our left. Then it was looking directly at us. The head did NOT move through all the intermediate positions. The transformation was instant. But then...

A wave of dread and terror rolled over the two of us. I have never before, or since, felt anything so intensely alien and malignant. It hated us.

Neither of us were the most athletic of kids, but I beat Dave over the fence by a good 4 feet. Apparently we burst into the kitchen babbling incoherently about a golden boy down the hill. It took us a good half hour to convince Grandpa that there really would be something worth seeing if he went out with us - and of course, there wasn't.

Nothing on the ground, nothing near the tree. But that image of a golden boy, with the most intense nastiness in his gaze...that will never go away.

I use the term 'golden boy' as that is how the family story has evolved...but it was no boy. It was humanoid, as best as the distance would reveal, but that sense of malice and dread made it impossible to stick around for more details. (And, I was 9 or 10 at the time, in my defense.) In the 50 years since, I have never heard of or read a similar encounter. Has the golden boy ever crossed your path?

(I am attaching a current shot from Google Earth. The house no longer has the white fence that separated the yard from the car park. There are a LOT more trees now, so I had to guess at the approximate spot, and the fact that the downward slope of the land isn't evident makes guessing a bit harder - but that is pretty close.) My grandparents only rented there, and I have no idea who owns the property now. But I wonder if they took down the fence because scared kids fell over it too often :).

Love the site, and the work that you do. Thank you. MB


Here is another instance that may be related somehow:


I happened upon a report on your blog from March 2010 that is very similar to something I witnessed.

I was traveling on a country road near my home in southern Ohio. This was in May 2014 during mid-day. As I approached a stop sign, I noticed an object floating a few feet above the road that reminded me of a vertical shrouded human body or a tightly wrapped mummy. It was all white in color but appeared to pulsate with light within. There were no wings or means of propulsion. The length was 8-10 ft., but it could have been larger. I had no reference in order to make a correct determination.

I stopped my car and watched this object for a few minutes. I did not get out of the car, simply because I had no idea what I was witnessing.

Then I noticed that it was swelling in size and slowly ascending. It continued to pick up speed, then shot straight up into the clouds. That was the last I saw of it.

Your report was the only reference I could find that matched the object.

NOTE: The witness added, after I made contact, that the object was completely still while it hovered above the roadway. Also that they noticed a 'ozone-like' odor during the encounter, even though the witness was in the car. Lon

What if Consiousness is not what drives the human mind?






 Well yes and no.. Our consciousness module works to interact in the now and deal with the external world.  Another module is on standby to take over is a threat is perceived.  Yet another helps to sort out our data flow and actually retain access as much as necessary to be called upon even decades later.  Yet another is an engaged knowledge processor solving actual defined problems not necessary tied to time.


I have effortlessly identified four separate and plausibly separate physical aspects of my conscious existence.

Now throw in the physical reality of our second tier spirit body operating each individual living cell in our bodies and the natural internet so implied whose information density is several orders of magnitude greater that all the chemistry in our bodies and we have real universe of possibility and plausible conscious realities.

By that measure our 'third tier' consciousness is truly along for the ride and occasional choice making.


.


WHAT IF CONSCIOUSNESS IS NOT WHAT DRIVES THE HUMAN MIND?


By Peter Halligan 

Nov 27, 2017

https://dailyaccord.com/consciousness-not-drives-human-mind/

Everyone knows what it feels like to have consciousness: it’s that self-evident sense of personal awareness, which gives us a feeling of ownership and control over the thoughts, emotions and experiences that we have every day.

Most experts think that consciousness can be divided into two parts: the experience of consciousness (or personal awareness), and the contents of consciousness, which include things such as thoughts, beliefs, sensations, perceptions, intentions, memories and emotions.

It’s easy to assume that these contents of consciousness are somehow chosen, caused or controlled by our personal awareness – after all, thoughts don’t exist until until we think them. But in a new research paper in Frontiers of Psychology, we argue that this is a mistake.

We suggest that our personal awareness does not create, cause or choose our beliefs, feelings or perceptions. Instead, the contents of consciousness are generated “behind the scenes” by fast, efficient, non-conscious systems in our brains. All this happens without any interference from our personal awareness, which sits passively in the passenger seat while these processes occur.

Put simply, we don’t consciously choose our thoughts or our feelings – we become aware of them.

NOT JUST A SUGGESTION

If this sounds strange, consider how effortlessly we regain consciousness each morning after losing it the night before; how thoughts and emotions – welcome or otherwise – arrive already formed in our minds; how the colours and shapes we see are constructed into meaningful objects or memorable faces without any effort or input from our conscious mind.

Consider that all the neuropsychological processes responsible for moving your body or using words to form sentences take place without involving your personal awareness. We believe that the processes responsible for generating the contents of consciousness do the same.

Our thinking has been influenced by research into neuropsychological and neuropsychiatric disorders, as well as more recent cognitive neuroscience studies using hypnosis. The studies using hypnosis show that a person’s mood, thoughts and perceptions can be profoundly altered by suggestion.

In such studies, participants go through a hypnosis induction procedure, to help them to enter a mentally focused and absorbed state. Then, suggestions are made to change their perceptions and experiences.

For example, in one study, researchers recorded the brain activity of participants when they raised their arm intentionally, when it was lifted by a pulley, and when it moved in response to a hypnotic suggestion that it was being lifted by a pulley.

Similar areas of the brain were active during the involuntary and the suggested “alien” movement, while brain activity for the intentional action was different. So, hypnotic suggestion can be seen as a means of communicating an idea or belief that, when accepted, has the power to alter a person’s perceptions or behaviour.

THE PERSONAL NARRATIVE

All this may leave one wondering where our thoughts, emotions and perceptions actually come from. We argue that the contents of consciousness are a subset of the experiences, emotions, thoughts and beliefs that are generated by non-conscious processes within our brains.

This subset takes the form of a personal narrative, which is constantly being updated. The personal narrative exists in parallel with our personal awareness, but the latter has no influence over the former.

The personal narrative is important because it provides information to be stored in your autobiographical memory (the story you tell yourself, about yourself), and gives human beings a way of communicating the things we have perceived and experienced to others.

This, in turn, allows us to generate survival strategies; for example, by learning to predict other people’s behaviour. Interpersonal skills like this underpin the development of social and cultural structures, which have promoted the survival of human kind for millennia.

So, we argue that it is the ability to communicate the contents of one’s personal narrative –– and not personal awareness – that gives humans their unique evolutionary advantage.

WHAT’S THE POINT?

If the experience of consciousness does not confer any particular advantage, it’s not clear what its purpose is. But as a passive accompaniment to non-conscious processes, we don’t think that the phenomenon of personal awareness has a purpose, in much the same way that rainbows do not. Rainbows simply result from the reflection, refraction and dispersion of sunlight through water droplets – none of which serves any particular purpose.

Our conclusions also raise questions about the notions of free will and personal responsibility. If our personal awareness does not control the contents of the personal narrative which reflects our thoughts, feelings, emotions, actions and decisions, then perhaps we should not be held responsible for them.

In response to this, we argue that free will and personal responsibility are notions that have been constructed by society. As such, they are built into the way we see and understand ourselves as individuals, and as a species. Because of this, they are represented within the non-conscious processes that create our personal narratives, and in the way we communicate those narratives to others.

Just because consciousness has been placed in the passenger seat, does not mean we need to dispense with important everyday notions such as free will and personal responsibility. In fact, they are embedded in the workings of our non-conscious brain systems. They have a powerful purpose in society and have a deep impact on the way we understand ourselves.

David A Oakley, Emeritus Professor of Psychology, UCL and Peter Halligan, Hon Professor of Neuropsychology, Cardiff University

The 30-Years Bubble---Why America Ain't That Rich





 What is missing in all this analysis is that we have entered a world of cheap money and this is driving household worth higher than any other time in history.  With burgeoning advent of bitcoin and its natural clones, i do not see this changing soon.

Yes Bitcoin really matters because it is dumping cash back into the economy at an accelerating rate outside of central bank control.  In short savings are safely been recycled back into the economy for reinvestment.

All Good and add in the impact of the overall tax cut and the liquidity is exceptional.
.
The 30-Years Bubble---Why America Ain't That Rich

By David Stockman. Posted On Monday, December 11th, 2017

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-30-years-bubble-why-america-aint-that-rich/

The entire financial and economic narrative in today's Bubble Finance world is virtually context- and history-free; it's all about the short-term deltas and therefore exceedingly misleading and dangerous.

So when a big trend or condition is negative and unsustainable, you generally can't even get a glimpse of it from the so-called "high-frequency" weekly, monthly and even quarterly data on which the financial press and its casino patrons thrive. And that's not merely because most of the data from the government statistical mills is heavily massaged and modeled and often "adjusted" beyond recognition over 3-5 year intervals of statistical revision.

Beyond that, however, even medium term trends get largely ignored. That's because the purpose of economic and financial data today is to facilitate daily (and hourly) trading in the casino---not inform long-term investors about underlying trends, conditions and prospects.

The investor class of yore, in fact, has largely been destroyed by the last 30-years of monetary central planning and the Wall Street deformations it has fostered----meaning that, increasingly, headline reading algo-traders and trend-following speculators are the main consumers of the "incoming data".
For instance, scratch a talking head today and you get the "strong economy" meme as purportedly reflected in two back-to-back quarters of 3% real GDP growth. Yet there is absolutely nothing "strong" about the picture below or compelling about the last two quarters.

After all, during Q2 and Q3 2014 there were back-to-back growth quarters of 4.6% and 5.2%, respectively. But that didn't last long----nor did the 3.1% and 4.0% growth rates of Q3 and Q4 of 2013 or the three-quarter average of 3.0% in Q2-Q4 of 2010.

All of those "strong" quarters seem to have disappeared from the groupthink narrative, as well as the punk quarters strewn in-between. In part, that's because most of them were reported at far lower or higher levels at the time, meaning that the underlying trend has simply disappeared from the high-frequency narrative about good deltas and excuses for ones which are not.

Still, the heart of the problem is the foolishness of annualizing 90 days worth of preliminary data with seasonal adjustment factors that are rarely up to the task.

Moreover, the large aggregates like GDP are inherently buffeted by short-term shocks ( e.g. severe hurricanes not embedded in the seasonals), inventory stocking and destocking mini-cycles and the ebb and flow of global trade, exchange rates and credit impulses. These, in turn, reflect the machinations of what has now become a worldwide convoy of hyper-interventionist Keynesian central banks.


Even modest adjustments to deal with some of these disabilities give a starkly different picture. For example, consider what happens when you remove the inventory contribution to quarterly GDP----which washes to essentially zero over time---and also set aside the highly volatile impact of net import/export trade, which has actually averaged a -0.28% contribution to GDP growth over the last 11 quarters.

What remains might be termed "core GDP" and includes consumer spending, fixed investment and government output. On that basis, growth was 2.4% in Q4 2016; 2.4% and 2.8% in Q1 and Q2 2017, respectively; and just 2.0% in Q3 2017. That is, the latest quarter showed the weakest annualized expansion rate in the last year and there was no "3" in it or any of the previous three periods.

In fact, a true long-term investor would only need to know whether the trend of year-over year growth in real final sales---which removes the volatile inventory component---is accelerating or decelerating and where the economy stands in the business cycle.

The chart below answers that question and there is no awesome 3% about it: Real final sales growth during the current so-called recovery peaked 10 quarters ago; has always been exceedingly weak given the unusual depth of the Great Recession; and is now constrained by an expansion cycle that is exceedingly long in the tooth by all historic standards at 102 months.

Even on a near-term basis, it's pretty hard to say that the 2.3% year-over-year expansion of real final sales in Q3 2017 was meaningfully different from the 2.2% year-0ver-year rate of gain recorded in Q1 2016.

Indeed, the contrast between the alleged "strengthening" direction of the last four green bars in the chart above (quarterly GDP SAAR) and the actual "weakened" position represented by the last fourblues bars on the chart below (Y/Y real final sales growth) highlights why the Wall Street narrative is so chronically incomplete and misleading. The stock peddlers who moonlight as "strategists" and "economists" at Goldman, Morgan Stanley etc are essentially selling a short-term trading "edge" to fast money clients, not proffering fundamental analysis about the state of the business cycle and its implications for PE multiples and stock prices.

That's more than evident in the fact that when the real final sales growth trend peaked at 3.8% in Q1 2015, the S&P 500 stood at 2070 and was valued at 20.8X LTM reported earnings, compared to 2660 today, which represents 24.9X reported earnings.

That is, there has been a 40% downshift in the real final sales growth rate accompanied by a 400 basis point expansion of the PE multiple---and from what was already the nosebleed section of history. And the current PE inflation is occurring at a point when the business expansion is approaching the longest one in recorded history.


Indeed, this late cycle PE expansion is all the more ludicrous when the current condition of the US economy is placed in full historic context. Given the depth of the 2008-09 downturn and the tepid cumulative gains since then (there should have been a strong rebound), the handwriting is on the wall, emblazoned in red letters.

To wit, even if the current expansion should last another 12 or even 24 months, there still is no conceivable set of quarterly gains that could significantly elevate the 1.2% peak-to-peak real final sales growth rate for this cycle to date (i.e. it already embodies 108 months of actual results). But as shown below, that's just half the level of the Greenspan housing boom, and barely one-third of the 1980s and 1990s expansions.

So why are PE multiples (i.e. honest ones based on reported GAAP, not Wall Street ex-items forward hockey sticks) rising to historic highs, when the US economy's trend growth capacity has succumbed to Ross Perot's famous "sucking sound to the south", and when on top of that profit margins are at all-time highs and will eventually also succumb to mean-reversion towards the south?

We think the answer is patently obvious: Namely, the casino is not capitalizing the true facts of the US economy or even of reported earnings. The latter came in a $107 per share for the September LTM period----exactly $1 thin dollar above the $106 per share level recorded 36 months ago in September 2014 when the US economy was entering its cyclical high (blue bars above).

Instead, the stock market is essentially deliriously chasing the price action and pure momentum. So doing, it is implicitly capitalizing an omnipotent central bank that has purportedly vanquished the business cycle and ushered in an era of endless full employment and low bond yields, world without end.


But that gets us to the 30-years bubble. Stock market capitalization of perpetual full employment is another way of saying that the economic and financial foundation of the US economy is rock solid; and is capable of sustained expansion like no other time in history---while also being completely immune to external shocks such as, say, a crash of the Red Ponzi or the bankruptcy of Italy and consequent break-up of the Eurozone and collapse of the euro.

That presumption is preposterous, of course, but is nonetheless embedded in the Wall Street/Washington narrative. Otherwise, they would not be celebrating the chart below and last week's news that household net worth in Q3 2017 posted at a breathtaking historic high of $97 trillion. Yes, with a "T"!

The excitement, of course, was that the number was up by $7.3 trillion or 8.1% from Q3 2016 (i.e. the eve of Trump's election), and by $42 trillion from the post-crisis low in Q1 2009.

Who would have thunk it? A whopping $42 trillion of new national riches that absolutely no one could have imagined in the dark days of a purported near-armageddon 100 months ago.

Then again, the reason that the impossible has morphed into a quarterly celebrati0n on bubblevision is that no one is paying attention to the trend, its implications for the future and the economic logic embedded therein.

As to the latter, consider this. During the 30 years of halcyon prosperity in America between Q2 1957 and Q2 1987, real GDP grew at a 3.54% compound annual rate, while real household net worth rose at a nearly identical 3.42% annualized rate.

The one tracked the other, of course, because during any sustained period of time, the real wealth of a society cannot grow any faster than the growth of production and income. Not surprisingly, therefore, household net worth weighed in at 3.70X GDP in 1957 and the very same 3.68X GDP on the eve of Alan Greenspan's arrival at the Fed.

But that's where the skunk in the woodpile comes in. In a word, the regime of Keynesian monetary central planning or Bubble Finance ushered in by the Maestro, and then aggravated by Bernanke and Yellen during and after the Fed induced Great Financial crisis, caused the iron linkage between long-term growth of production and wealth to be temporarily suspended.

Consequently, household wealth---which soared from $18 trillion to $97 trillion between Q2 1987 and Q3 2017, as shown in the orange bars below, grew far faster than GDP. Accordingly, it now stands at an off-the-charts 5.0X nominal GDP of $19.5 trillion.

Stated differently, even though the trend growth rate has fallen sharply during the last 30 years, the wealth capitalization rate of the household sector has soared into the wild blue yonder compared to all prior history.

These ratios are both expressed in nominal numbers, of course, but when the chart below is re-priced into constant dollar terms by the GDP deflator, the disconnect is made all the more dramatic. Namely, even as the thirty-year real GDP growth rate fell from 3.54% during 1957-1987 to 2.54% during the last thirty year period, the real growth rate of household net worth actually accelerated.


Since the Greenspan instigated era of Bubble Finance commenced in 1987, real household net worth has nearly tripled in today's dollars (from $33 trillion to $97 trillion), representing a 3.6% annual growth rate.

\

Then again, the chart below suggests why these staggering gains in purported household wealth are not what they are cracked-up to be.

To wit, real median household income during the same 30-year period has crept higher at just a 0.4%annual rate. That means, in turn, that real wealth, as reported by the Fed's flow-of-funds series, has grown nine times faster than real median household incomes in America.

To be sure, on the surface that reflects the reverse Robin Hood effect of Bubble Finance at work. The inflation of financial and real estate assets have overwhelming gone to the top 1% and 10% of households.

But at the end of the day, that giant gap cannot be explained away by the notion that there has been a permanent redistribution of the wealth to the top of the economic latter.

To the contrary, the truth of the matter is that the $97 trillion of household wealth reported last week is neither real nor sustainable; it's merely another flashing red warning sign that financial asset inflation has reached dangerous asymptotic heights.

For instance, if the household net worth-to-GDP ratio had remained at its historic 3.7X level through the present, household net worth today would be just $72 trillion, implying that the Fed has generated at least $24 trillion of bottled air since 1987.


In fact, the overstatement of household net worth is far larger than even that. The burgeoning demographic/fiscal crisis in America will actually grind economic growth toward the zero bound during the decade of the 2020s as massive public sector borrowing forces bond yields dramatically higher.

And that will reveal the ugly underside of last week's flow-of-funds report. To wit, the nation is now saddled with $68 trillion of public and private debt compared to $10.7 trillion when the era of Bubble Finance incepted back in October 1987.

In combination with 85 million retirees (by the end of the next decade), this debt albatross will smother American capitalism in high taxes, high interest rates and battered balance sheets in both the household and business sectors. As that outcome unfolds, the current absurdly inflated stock market PE multiples will get monkey-hammered by the reality of stagnant growth and struggling profits.

That is to say, America ain't nearly so rich as the Fed's fantasy figures suggest.

And that's a truth you can take to the bank by getting out of the casino now!

Monday, December 25, 2017

What Is Right Action? With Krishnamurthi

 

I was reminded recently of Krishnamurti, a noted philosopher and thinker of the Twentieth Century.  He seems to have been much forgotten, but then so are so many who are known only by the odd scholar.  It is a shame really.

He has left us an extensive collection of his thinking mostly in the way of lectures with extensive question and answer sessions.  You must find the time to dedicate to contemplative meditation in order to work with his oeuvre. it is well worth it for a serious student.  In fact i think that a serious student of philosophy would be well advised to spend months on this work.

I know this alien to our present world and to most people and I am so sorry that this is so.  We approach a time when we will have serious leisure  and long lives.  Yet this is of no value unless you master contemplation.  Without it life is to easy to slip away from.

.  

1934, 1935, What Is Right Action?

Auckland, New Zealand
Talk to Businessmen 6th April, 1934

 http://jiddu-krishnamurti.net/en/1934-1935-what-is-right-action/jiddu-krishnamurti-what-is-right-action-07

Friends, I think that most of us think that it would be a marvellous world if there were no real exploitation, and that it would be a splendid world if every human being had the capacity to live naturally, fully and humanly. But there are very few who want to do anything about it. As ideals, as a Utopia, as a thing of a dream, everyone indulges in it, but very few desire action. You cannot bring about a Utopia nor can there be the cessation of exploitation without action.

Now, there can be action, collective action, only if there is first of all individual thinking out of that problem. Every human being, in sane moments, feels the horror of real exploitation, whether by the priest, by the business man, by the doctor, by the politician, or by anybody. We all feel really, in our hearts, the appalling cruelty of exploitation, if we have given a single moment's thought to it. And yet each one is caught up in this wheel, in this system of exploitation, and we are waiting and hoping that by some miracle a new system will come into being. And so, individually, we feel we have but to wait, let things take their natural course, and by some extraordinary means a new world will come into being. Surely, to create a new thing, a new world, a new conception of organization, individuals must begin. That is, the business people, or anyone in particular, must begin to find out if their action is really based on exploitation.

Now, as I said, there is the exploitation of the priest based on fear, there is the exploitation of the business man based on his own aggrandizement, accumulation of wealth, greed, subtle forms of selfishness and security; and as you are all here supposed to be business men, surely you cannot leave every human problem aside and concern yourselves wholly with business. After all, business men are human beings, and human beings, so long as they are exploited, must have this rebellious spirit in them continually. It is only when you have reached a certain level where you are fairly secure that you forget all about this condition, about changing the world, or bringing about a certain attitude of spontaneous action towards life. Because we have reached a certain stage of security, we forget, and feel everything is all right; but behind it all one can feel that there cannot be happiness, human happiness, so long as there is real exploitation.

Now, to me, exploitation comes into being when individuals seek more than their essential needs; and to discover your essential needs requires a great deal of intelligence, and you cannot be intelligent so long as your needs are the result of the pursuit of security, of comfort. Naturally, one must have food, shelter, clothing, and all the rest of it; but to make this possible for everyone, individuals must begin to realize their own needs, the needs which are human, and organize the whole system of thought and action on that, and then only can there be real creative happiness in the world.

But now what is happening? We are fighting each other all the time, elbowing each other out, there is continual competitiveness, where each one feels insecure, and yet we go on drifting, without taking a definite action. That is, instead of waiting for a miracle to take place to alter this system, it needs a complete revolutionary change, which each one recognizes.

Although we may have a slight fear of world revolution, we all recognize the immense necessity of a change. And yet, individually, we are incapable of bringing about that change, because, individually, we have not given consideration, individually we have not tried to find out why there should be this continual process of exploitation. When individuals are really intelligent, then they will create an organization which will provide the essential needs for humanity, not based on exploitation. Individually we cannot live apart from society. Society is the individual and as long as individuals are merely continually seeking their own self-security, for themselves or their family, there must be a system of exploitation.

And there cannot be real happiness in the world if individuals, as yourselves, treat the world's affairs, human affairs, apart from business. That is, you cannot be, if I may say so, nationalistically inclined, and yet talk about the freedom of trade. You cannot consider New Zealand as the first important country, and then reject all other countries, because you feel, individually, the essential need for your own security. That is, sirs, if I may put it this way, there can be real freedom of trade, development of industries, and so on, only when there are no nationalities in the world. I think that is obvious. So long as there are tariff walls protecting each country there must be wars, confusion and chaos; but if we were able to treat the whole world, not as divided into nationalities, into classes, but as a human entity; not divided by religious sects, by capitalist class and the worker class; then only is there a possibility of real freedom in trade, in co-operation. To bring this about you cannot merely preach or attend meetings. There cannot be mere intellectual enjoyment of these ideas, there must be action; and to bring about action, individually we must begin, even though we may suffer for it. We must begin to create intelligent opinion, and thereby we shall have a world where individuality is not crushed out, beaten to a particular pattern, but becomes a means of expression of life; not the battered, conditioned shape which we call human beings. Most people want and realize there must be a complete change. I cannot see any way but by beginning as individuals, and then that individual opinion will become the realization of humanity.

Question: What intelligible meaning, may I ask, do you attach to the idea of a masculine God as postulated by practically the whole of the Christian clergy, and arbitrarily imposed upon the masses during the dark ages of the past and until the present moment? A God conceived of in terms of the masculine gender, must, by all the canons of sound and sane logic, be thought of, prayed to, importuned and worshipped in terms of personality. And a personal God - personal as we human beings necessarily are - must be limited in time, space, power and purpose, and a God so limited can be no God at all. In the very face of this colossal imposition, arbitrarily imposed upon the masses, is it any wonder that we find the world in its present catastrophic condition? God to be God must, in sober and sane reality, be the absolute and infinite totality of all existence, both negative and positive. Is that not so?

Krishnamurti: Sir, why do you want to know whether God is masculine or feminine? Why do we question? Why do we try to find out if there is a God, if it is personal, if it is masculine? Is it not because we feel the insufficiency of living? We feel that if we can find out what this immense reality is, then we can mould our lives according to that reality; so we begin to preconceive what that reality must be or should be, and shape that reality according to our fancies and whims, according to our prejudices and temperaments. So we begin to build up by a series of contradictions and oppositions, an idea of what we think God should be; and, to me, such a God is no God at all. It is a human means of escape from the constant battles of life, from this thing which we call exploitation, from the inanities of life, the loneliness, the sorrows. Our God is merely a means of escape from these things; whereas, to me, there is something much more fundamental, real. I say there is something like God; let us not inquire into what it is. You will find out if you begin to really understand the very conflict which is crippling the mind and heart: this continual struggle for self-security, this horror of exploitation, wars and nationalities, and the absurdities of organized religion. If we can face these and understand them, then we shall find out the real meaning instead of speculating; the real meaning of life, the real meaning of God.

Question: Do you follow Mahomet, or the Christ?
Krishnamurti: May I ask why anyone should follow another? After all, truth or God is not to be found by imitating another: then we will only make ourselves into machines. Surely, need we, as human beings, belong to any sect, whether Muhammadanism, Christianity, Hinduism, or Buddhism? If you set up one person as your Saviour, or as your guide, then there must be exploitation; there must be the shaping of the world into a particular narrow sect. Whereas, if we really do not set anyone up in authority, but if we find out whatever they say, or any human being says, then we shall realize something which is lasting; but merely following another does not lead us anywhere. I take it that you are all Christians, and you say you are following Christ. Are you? Are human beings, whether they belong to Christianity or Muhammadanism or Buddhism, really following their leaders? It is impossible. They don't. So why call yourselves by different names and separate yourselves? Whereas, if we really altered the environment to which we have become such slaves, then we should be really Gods in ourselves, not follow anybody. Personally, I do not belong to any sect, large or small. I have found truth, God, or whatever you like to call it, but I cannot transmit it to another. One can discover it only through consummate intelligence, and not through imitation of certain principles, beliefs and personages. Question: Is there an exterior force or influence known as organized evil?

Krishnamurti: Is there? The modern business man, the nationalist, the follower of religion - I call these people evils, organized evils; because, sirs, individually we have created these horrors in the world. How have religions come into being with their power to exploit ruthlessly people through fear? How have they grown into such formidable machines? We individually have created them through our fear of the hereafter. Not that there is no hereafter: that is quite a different thing altogether. We have created it, and in that machine we are caught; and it is only the very rare few who break away, and those people you call Christ, Buddha, Lenin, or X, Y, Z.

Then there is the evil of society as it is. It is an organized, oppressive machine to control human beings. You think if human beings are released they will become dangerous, they will do all kinds of horrors; so you say, "Let us socially control them, by tradition, by opinion, by the limitation of morality; and it is the same thing economically. So gradually these evils become accepted as normal, healthy things. Surely it is obvious how through education we are made to fit into a system where individual vocation is never thought of. You are made to fit into some work; and so we create a dual life, throughout our lives, that of business from 10 to 5, or whatever it is, which has nothing to do with the other, our private, social, home-life. So we are living continually in contradiction, going occasionally, if you are interested, to church, to keep up the fashion, the show. We inquire into reality, into God, when there are moments of strife, moments of oppression, moments when there is a crash. We say, "There must be some reality. Why are we living?" So we gradually create in our lives a duality, and therefore we become such hypocrites.


So, to me, there is an evil. It is the evil of exploitation engendered by individuals through their longing for security, self-preservation at all costs, irrespective of the whole of human beings; and in that there is no affection, no real love, but merely this possessiveness which we term as love. Question: Can you tell us how you have arrived at this degree of understanding?

Krishnamurti: I am afraid it would take very long, and it may be very personal. First of all, sirs, I am not a philosopher, I am not a student of philosophy. I think one who is merely a student of philosophy is already dead. But I have lived with all kinds of people, and I have been brought up, as you perhaps know, to fulfil a certain function, a certain office. Again, that means "exploiter". And I was also the head of a tremendous organization throughout the world, for spiritual purposes; and I saw the fallacy of it, because you cannot lead men to truth. You can only make them intelligent through education, which has nothing to do with priests and their means of exploitation - ceremonies. So I disbanded that organization; and, living with people, and not having a fixed idea about life, or a mind bound by a certain traditional background, I began to discover what, to me, is truth: truth to everybody - a life which one can live healthily, sanely, humanly; not based on exploitation, but on needs. I know what I need, and that is not very much, so whether I work for it by digging in a garden, or talking, or writing, that is not of great importance.

First of all, to discover anything, there must be great discontent, great questioning, unhappiness; and very few people in the world, when they are discontented, desire to accentuate that discontent, desire to go through it to find out. They generally want the opposite. If they are discontented, they want happiness, whereas, for myself - if I may be personal - I did not want the opposite, I wanted to find out; and so gradually through various questionings and through continual friction, I came to realize that which one may call truth or God. I hope I have answered it.

Question: Tell us something of your idea of the hereafter.

Krishnamurti: Isn't it extraordinary! This is supposed to be a meeting for business people, and we are talking about the hereafter, God, and all the rest. It indicates that we are not interested in our business at all; we are interested in this merely as a means of getting money to exist; and our human interests are divorced from our daily living.

Now, with regard to what lies hereafter. Perhaps you have read what some of the great scientists in Europe are saying: that there is a continuance after death. Some of them maintain that there is an individual continuance, others with equal emphasis deny it. It is pretty obvious that there is some kind of continuity, whether it is the thought-form of the entity that dies, or the expression of the world thought, and so on.

Now, let us find out, inquire into what we call individuality. When we ask the question, "Is there a hereafter?" why do we ask it? Because you want to know if you will continue as Mr. X when you die; or you want to know because you love someone tremendously, and that person has died. So let us find out what is this thing we call individuality - that is, my brother, my wife, my child, or myself: what is it? When you talk about Mr. X, what is that Mr. X? Is it not form, name, certain prejudices, a certain bank account, certain class distinctions? That is, Mr. X has become the focal point of this condition of society.

I hope I am explaining this. I will put it this way. An ordinary individual now, as he is, is nothing else but the focal point of the environment, of society, of religion, of moral edicts and economic conditions - as the ordinary individual, he is that. Isn't it so? That focal point, with its contradictions, prejudices, hopes, longings, fears, likes and dislikes, that constitutes that bundle which we call an individual, as Mr. X. Now, we want to know if that Mr. X shall live in the hereafter. There is the possibility that he may live, and he lives now. Wait a minute. That is not of importance, is it? Because what we call individuals are nothing else but the result of false environment. This focal point of the present state of individuality is really false, isn't it? An ordinary man has to fight in this world to live at all. He has to be competitive, ruthless, and he must belong to certain classes of society, Bourgeois, Proletariat, Capitalist; or he belongs to certain religious sects called by various names, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism and so on. Surely these environments are false when I have to fight ruthlessly my neighbour to live at all. Isn't there something rotten in such a state? Isn't there something abnormal in dividing ourselves into class distinctions? Isn't there something crude when we have to call ourselves Christians, Hindus, Muhammadans or Buddhists? So these false environments create friction in the mind, and mind identifies itself with that conflict, identifies itself as Mr. X. And then the question arises, "What happens? Shall I live, or not live?" As I say, there is a possibility that they may live; but in that living there is no happiness, creative intelligence, joy in life; it is a continual battle. Whereas, if we understand the true significance of all these environments placed on the mind - religious, social, and economic - therefore freeing the mind from conflict, we shall find out that there is a different focal unit, a different individuality altogether; and I say that individuality is continuous; it is not yours and mine. That individuality is the eternal expression of life itself, and in that there is no death, there is no beginning and end; in that there is a wider conception of life. Whereas, in this false individuality there must be death, there must be continual inquiry whether I shall live or shall not live. The fear is continual, haunting, pursuing.

Question: Do you think the social systems of the world will evolve to a state of international brotherhood, or will it be brought about through parliamentary institution, or by education?

Krishnamurti: As society is organized, you cannot have international brotherhood. You cannot remain a New Zealander, and I a Hindu, and talk about brotherhood. How can there be brotherhood really, if you are restricted by economic conditions, by this patriotism which is such a false thing? That is, how can there be brotherhood if you remain as a New Zealander, holding on to your particular prejudices, your tariff walls, patriotism, and all the rest; and I a Hindu living in India, with my prejudices? We can talk about tolerance, leaving each other alone, or my sending you missionaries and your sending me missionaries, but there cannot be brotherhood. How can there be brotherhood when you are a Christian and I am a Hindu, when you are priest-ridden and I am also priest-ridden in a different way, when you have one form of worship and I have another? - which does not mean that you must come to my form of worship or that I must go into yours.

So, as things are, they will not result in brotherhood. On the contrary, there is nationalism, more sovereign governments, which are but the instruments of war. So, as social institutions exist, they cannot evolve into a magnificent thing, because their very basis, their foundation is wrong; and your parliaments, your education based on these ideas, will not bring about brotherhood. Look at all our nations. What are they? Nothing but instruments of war. Each country is better than the other, each country beating another, inflaming this false thing called patriotism. Please, you like certain countries, certain countries are more beautiful than others, and you appreciate it. You enjoy beauty as you enjoy a sunset, whether here, in Europe or America. There is nothing nationalistic, no patriotic feeling behind it - you enjoy it. Patriotism comes only when people begin to use your enjoyment to a purpose. And how can there be real brotherhood, through patriotism, when the whole form of government is based on class distinctions, when one class that has everything rules the other which has nothing, or sends representatives who have nothing to parliament? Surely this approach to human state, human unity is impossible. It is so obvious, it does not even need discussion.

So long as there are class distinctions developing into nationalities, based on exploitation by the possessive class, or the class which has the means of production in its hands, there must be wars; and through wars you are not going to get brotherhood. That is obvious. You can see that in Europe since the War: more national feeling, greater flag-waving, higher tariff walls. That, surely, is not going to produce brotherhood. It may produce brotherhood in the sense that there will be a great catastrophe and people will wake up and say, "For God's sake, let us wake up and be sensible." Eventually that may produce brotherhood; but nationalities are not going to produce brotherhood, any more than religious distinctions, which are really, if you come to think of it, based on refined selfishness. We all want to be secure in heaven - whatever that place is - safe, secure, certain, and so we create institutions, organizations, to bring about the certainty, and we call these religions, and thereby increase exploitation. Whereas, if we really see the falseness of all these things, not only perceive it intellectually but really feel it completely with our mind and heart, then there is a possibility of brotherhood. If we perceive it and act, then there is a voluntary, true, moral act. I call that a true moral act when we perceive a thing completely and act, and not when forced by circumstances, or there is brought about a brotherhood forced by the sheer brutal necessity of life. That is, when business people, the capitalist, the financiers, begin to see that this distinction does not pay, that they cannot make more money, they cannot be in the same position, then they will bring about environment forcing the individual to become brotherly; as now you are forced by environment to be unbrotherly, to exploit, so you will also be forced to co-operate. Surely that is not brotherhood: that is merely an action brought about by convenience, without human intelligence and understanding.

So, to really bring human intelligence into action, individuals must morally and voluntarily act and then they will create an organization in which they will be real fighters against exploitation. But that needs a great deal of perception, a great deal of intelligent action, and you can begin only with yourself; you can only tend your own garden, you cannot look after your neighbour's.

Question: Please be candid. Can we know truth as you do, cease to exploit, and still remain in business, or do you suggest we sell out? Could you go into trade and remain as you are?

Krishnamurti: Sir, please, I am not dodging the issue. I will be perfectly candid. As the system is organized, unless you withdraw into a desert island where you cook and do everything for yourselves, there must be exploitation. Isn't that so? It is obvious. As long as the system is based on individual competition, security, possessiveness, as its foundation, there must be exploitation. But cannot you be free of that foundation because you are not afraid, because you have discovered what are your essential needs, because you are rich in yourself? Therefore, although you remain in trade, you find that your needs are very few; whereas, if there is poverty of mind and heart, your needs become colossal. But again, unless one is really honest, absolutely frank, and does not subtly deceive oneself, what I have said can be used to exploit further. I would not mind personally going into trade, but to me it would have no value, because I have no need to go into trade. Therefore, what is the use of my talking theoretically? Not that I have money; but I would do anything reasonable, sane, because my needs are very few, and I have no fear of being crushed out. It is when there is a fear of losing - the fear of the loss of security, preservation - that we fight. But if you are prepared to lose everything because you have nothing - well there is no exploitation. This sounds ridiculous, absurd, savage, primitive, but if you really think about it sanely, if you give a few minutes of your real creative thought to it, you will see it is not so absurd as all that. It is the savage who is continually at the behest of his wants, not the man of intelligence. He does not cling to things, because inwardly he is supremely rich; therefore his external needs are very few. Surely we can organize a society which is based on needs, not on this exploitation through advertising. I hope I have answered your question, sir.

Question: Without wishing to exploit the speaker, I look upon him as one of the greatest of all exemplifiers of philosophic altruism, but I would much like him to tell his audience here this afternoon what belief he has in the ultimate millennium, that no doubt he and the whole of the human race seek.

Krishnamurti: Sir, to have a perfect millennium means the savage must be as intelligent as anyone else, must have as perfect conditions as anyone else. That is, all human beings living in the world at the precise moment, at the same time, must all be happy. Surely that is the millennium, isn't it? That is what we mean when we talk about it. All right, sir. Wait a minute. Is such a thing possible? Surely it is not possible. We think a millennium is a moment when the ideal has come into being, when civilization has reached its highest pinnacle. It is like a human being who shapes his life to a certain ideal, and reaches the height. What happens to such a human being? He wants something else, there is a further ideal. Therefore, he never reaches the culmination. But when a human being lives, not trying to achieve, to succeed, to reach a height, but is living fully, humanly, all the time, then his action, which must be reflected in society, will not reach a pinnacle. It will be constantly on the move, therefore continually increasing, and not striving after a culmination.

1934, 1935, What Is Right Action?

Auckland, New Zealand
Talk to Businessmen 6th April, 1934

Jiddu Krishnamurti. What Is Right Action? The collected works of J.Krishnamurti, 1934..1935.

World’s scientists turn to Asia and Australia to rewrite human history





It took a long time to see the obvious but then most of our homeland is under water.  This area is the best likely environment for the emergence of our human characteristics.  And not Africa at all.  Key is a benign sea shore that is unending.  It is a perfect place to generate large communities and the necessary brain wiring to handle it.  A large natural community would have around 150 individuals. This is way larger than your hunting band or pack.

That was the key process prompting large brains.


The Sahul which includes New Guinea and the Carpentian Sea and Northern Australia was the last remaing environmemt retaining dinosaur era fauna, remnants of which still remain.  Most of the Indonesian platform and theSouth China Sea was also above water.  It too was continental in scale.  All this was tropical rainforest and rich coastal reefs.  It wasthose coastal reefs that supported the rise of stable communities.



World’s scientists turn to Asia and Australia to rewrite human history 

December 7, 2017 2.21pm EST


 https://theconversation.com/worlds-scientists-turn-to-asia-and-australia-to-rewrite-human-history-88697


Indigenous Australians created elaborate rock art, as shown here in Arnhem Land. P. Taçon , Author provided



Author



DECRA Research Fellow, Griffith University

Disclosure statement Michelle Langley is a ARC DECRA Research Fellow at the Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith University. She is currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council to explore the diversity and richness of Australia's bone technologies.



Where did we humans come from?

Some 40 or so years ago, our origins seemed quite straight forward.

But now we see that the human story is far more complex. As summarised by Christopher Bae and colleagues in their latest paper just published in Science, data from Asia and Australia is becoming vital in piecing this new history together.


The original story went something like this: modern humans (Homo sapiens) evolved to their current anatomical form in sub-Saharan Africa sometime after 200,000 years ago. They hung around for a bit, then groups started moving out of the homeland.

Arriving in Western Europe, a “human revolution” soon occurred (40,000 years ago), resulting in our much celebrated artistic and complex language abilities, a sort of creative explosion. These cognitively and technologically advanced peoples then out-competed the indigenous Neanderthals (and other archaic, or relatively ancient, human groups) and ultimately conquered the entire globe.

But fresh evidence has forced a rethink of this version of human history.


Modern humans

New analyses of human fossils have pushed back our earliest recognisable modern ancestors to around 310,000 years. And they weren’t found in eastern or southern Africa (like previous fossil finds), but from a site called Jebel Irhoud in Morocco. These findings have raised questions regarding exactly how – and where – we became “modern”.

Chimpanzees fish for algae using tools. Traditionally, we saw the primary difference between humans and the rest of the animal kingdom as being the use of tools. However, primatologists and other biologists have been recording more and more instances of chimpanzees, orangutans, and other creatures making and using tools.


More than that, work initially in southern Africa has demonstrated that the creative explosion didn’t happen in Europe – it happened back in Africa, and far before the original 40,000 years ago date.

Currently, we understand that our complex cognitive and social capacities first began to emerge at around 100,000 years ago or earlier. And it wasn’t even an explosion, but probably more like a slow burn that slowly built into the raging fire of modern creativity.

New and old humans

Perhaps the most intriguing new evidence comes from the analysis of ancient DNA samples.

These studies are showing that interactions between the “new” humans (Modern Humans like you and me) and the “old” humans (Neanderthals, Denisovans, Homo erectus, Homo florensiensis, that are all now extinct) was not just a case of simple replacement. Instead, it appears that groups of new and old humans intermingled, interbred, fought, and interacted in a multitude of different ways which we are still disentangling.


The results of these encounters appear to have left some lasting legacies, like the presence of between 1-4% Neanderthal DNA in non-African Modern Humans.

These studies are also beginning to identify some interesting cognitive differences between “us” and “them”, such as the fact that while we modern humans are susceptible to brain conditions like autism and schizophrenia, it appears Neanderthals were not.




Map of sites and postulated migratory pathways associated with modern humans dispersing across Asia during the Late Pleistocene


The Asian story

The Australasian region is playing a larger and larger role in rewriting the stories of human history.

New fossils like Homo floresiensis have completely changed our view of what the human story is in this region. These tiny humans – “the hobbits” – found on the Indonesian island of Flores, continue to challenge palaeoanthropologists – are they a dwarfed Homo erectus? Or are they the descendants of something much more ancient? What are the implications?


But perhaps more interesting (to me at least), are the multitude of artefactual finds which have come to light in recent years.

It now seems that one of the species of older humans, Homo erectus, may have had some capability for symbolism – something rarely associated with them. This hypothesis comes thanks to new analyses of material from old excavations.

Looking back at material excavated from the first known locality of Homo erectus fossils РTrinil on Java, originally discovered by Eug̬ne Dubois in 1891 Рscientists stumbled upon a shell exhibiting a zig-zag pattern. This shape had been carefully inscribed using a stone tool more than 400,000 years ago (and perhaps as much as 500,000!). Such geometric motifs had previously been found at southern African sites Рbut all with Modern Humans Рand all significantly younger. In Eurasia too, such designs are present, but rarely seen in Neanderthal contexts.



Walking towards the Maros kast in Sulawesi — where the worlds oldest rock art is located. M. Langley, Author provided Other findings in Island South East Asia – this time associated with modern humans, Homo sapiens – are showing that the realm of extravagant creativity wasn’t the sole domain of Africa and Europe. New explorations and excavations on Sulawesi and Timor-Leste have recovered not only the oldest rock art in the world, but a vast array of jewellery and other artistic items.




More than this propensity for art, it has also been found that the first modern human colonists in Asia were practising complex food-targeting strategies, like deep-sea fishing. Such a finding indicates an extensive knowledge of the sea, its dangers, and its rewards.
Focus on Australia
Australia too has been contributing to the rewriting of human histories.

In just the last two years alone, the date of original colonisation of this vast southern continent has been pushed back to around 65,000-years-ago.









 


Excavation leader Chris Clarkson examining a stone tool at the Madjedbebe rock shelter in the Kakadu National Park in the Northern Territory. Dominic O'Brien/AAP The earliest bone ornament in the world, and the earliest ground-edge tool in the world were both found on this continent. It is becoming obvious that Australia was (and is) a land of highly adaptive and innovative people.






The earliest bone tool in Australia — and the earliest bone ornament in the world. A ‘nose bone’ ornament made from kangaroo fibulae found in Carpenter’s Gap 1, Kimberley — Bunuba country. M. Langley, Author provided The speed at which new and astounding discoveries are being made in Australasia has effectively turned the focus of many human evolution researchers from the old bastions of Africa and Eurasia, much further east.




Recognising the growing importance of this region for furthering our understanding of our story, it is not only individuals that are moving their focus to Asia, but also whole departments. For example, the Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution based at Griffith University in Brisbane was launched with the expressed view of focusing on the Australasian region to answer evolutionary questions.





In all, it is an exciting time to be a researcher in this region. Indeed, it appears that the long sought after answers to some of the central questions in human evolution studies may finally be answered here.