Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Don Weil on the Auto Industry

Yes, the politicians are talking themselves into bailing out the big three when what the big three desperately need is a trip through chapter 11.

In fact, it is probable that these companies can be nicely reorganized and even refinanced as a group of separated companies worth much more than the original entities.

At the end of the day, I believe there is great merit in GM splitting into seven separate companies. They are there in practice and are burdened by an actual lack of internal competition. GM is set up to do just that.

The driving force behind gigantism in industry came from the huge need for capital to carry huge inventories literally from mine face to end buyer. This has abated thanks to modern industrial practice. It makes total sense for a stand alone auto company to design a model line and run a nimble assembly line using parts suppliers who are now already well established.

Multiple auto companies would spread the financial risk which surely is a benefit to the nation. We are getting this through the back door as foreign automakers continue to set up shop here.

Four Big Lies about the Big Three Automakers

Monday, December 8, 2008 3:58 PM
By: Dan Weil

With Congressional Democrats and the Bush administration agreeing in principle over the weekend to drop a few billion on General Motors and Chrysler, all signs point to a government-backed auto industry bailout. But could the crisis in Detroit be the product of myth, spin and outright lies?

As the nation inches closer to an unprecedented investment in private industry, Newsmax has examined the falsehoods being spread to promote the deal. Indeed, the exact amount of money to be doled out isn’t clear yet. GM and Chrysler executives testified before Congress last week that they need $14 billion to survive until March 31.

Whatever the total, a number of financial experts say it would be money better left unspent until the Big Three and their supporters agree to level with the American taxpayers. Until the car makers can offer convincing proof that they will be able to produce cars at a reasonable price that customers will want to buy, here are four of the biggest whoppers they are relying on to get a massive infusion of American tax dollars:

1. Detroit’s wages really aren’t out of synch with those of auto workers in other countries.

It has been well established that total compensation for U.S. auto workers, including pensions and benefits, comes in around $70 per hour. That compares to $45 per hour for Japanese workers.

But some auto industry supporters have distorted the argument. They use the American workers’ hourly wage without benefits – about $30 an hour – and compare that number to the $45 hourly total compensation for Japanese workers. Then they claim that U.S. auto makers are actually more labor efficient than their Japanese counterparts.

Obviously that’s not comparing apples to apples. If you are looking at apples versus apples, a new auto plant in India offers hourly pay of only $19.
And it’s not just line workers who are overpaid. Ford’s chief executive Alan Mulally earned $22 million in total compensation last year – a year that helped push the company toward oblivion. Asked last month if he thought he deserved a pay cut, Mulally said, “I think I’m all right where I am.”

Top executives at Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch probably felt the same way right before their companies went under.

2. The auto industry is unique and therefore must be bailed out.

It’s true that auto companies, including suppliers etc., account for about 3 percent of economic output and employ at least one million people. But those numbers aren’t dependent on the financial status of the Big Three.

If the companies go into bankruptcy and come out stronger, the industry will employ about the same amount of people. If not, foreign auto makers will produce more cars in the U.S. and pick up many of these workers.

Plenty other uniquely American industries are taking it on the chin, and no one is calling for a bailout of those sectors. Take newspapers for example. One could argue they are far more important for the functioning of our democracy than the Big Three auto companies.

Newspapers are firing workers right and left and shifting more of their operations to the Internet. And they will have to continue doing so until they can put out a news product cheaply enough and well enough so that readers will pay to read it, and advertisers will pay to appear in it.

That’s called adjusting to a changed market place, something the Big Three have largely failed to do since first facing foreign competition in the 1970s.

3. Bankruptcy for the Big Three will mean the end of the U.S. auto industry.

That is simply poppycock. A prepackaged bankruptcy could actually leave the major auto makers in better shape than they were prior to the financial crisis. Since the mid-1990s, the Big Three made most of their money on gas guzzling SUVs and trucks. That simply won’t cut it anymore. Bankruptcy will force the auto makers to quicken their shift to smaller cars.

Plenty of companies have emerged stronger from bankruptcy. Nearly all the major airlines have gone through that process and came out stronger than when they entered. Some industry apologists have argued that American consumers won’t buy any cars from the Big Three if they are in bankruptcy because of concern that warranties won’t be honored.

But as long as the companies offer quality autos at reasonable prices and make it clear that warranties will remain in place no matter what happens to the companies themselves, American drivers will want the cars.

Meanwhile, bankruptcy would give the Big Three an opportunity to rework their labor contracts, cutting compensation, and to jettison incompetent executives.

4. A limited aid package now will insure the industry’s long-term future.

The amount of money being bandied about, $15 billion to $25 billion, is chump change. GM and Chrysler are bleeding $2 billion in cash per month. So the high end of the bailout range keeps them in business for about a year. Then what? Without major changes in their business model, they’ll simply be coming back to Washington with their hands out again.

The Big Three have had so many opportunities to change their practices since the first oil crisis of the early 1970s, yet they have been reluctant to budge. GM still has eight brands of cars, even though critics have pointed out for years that’s probably about seven too many.

As recently as last month, GM CEO Rick Wagoner had the gall to tell Congress: “What exposes us to failure now is not our product lineup, or our business plan, or our long-term strategy.”

Until Wagoner and others at the Big Three come to realize those are exactly the factors that have put the industry on the brink of failure, there is no hope for improvement. And it’s not a bailout that’s going to make auto companies implement the adjustments they need to survive.

And remember, this current "bailout" bears no resemblance to the rescue of Chrysler in 1980. In 1980, Congress passed, and President Carter signed, a law giving a U.S. government guarantee of a private $1.5 billion loan to Chrysler. Not one dollar of taxpayer funds was ever used in the deal. It's also important to remember that import tariffs sheltered Chrysler and the Big Three from Japanese competition in the 1980s. And unlike today, Chrysler also had a clear plan to make a comeback and the loan was relatively small.

All of the automakers should follow Chrysler's 1980s success story: create a viable business plan for the future and get private sources to fund it.

© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Large Complex Societies in Amazon

I wrote this article earlier this year to emphasize that the actual carrying capacity of the Americas with the terra preta technology in the Amazon and the three sisters elsewhere was huge and surely compares to contemporaneous China and India.

I have always taken the position that if it was possible then it was so and that if Archeology has not confirmed it, keep digging. Far too much weight has been given by the profession to the importance of lack of evidence when the prospective terrain is barely explored to depth.

No valley on Earth went unoccupied. The question was merely how best to make a living. If that was established, then the population grew to carrying capacity.

Before the advent of Europeans, the Americas had stable large communities that were very good at cropping their lands. That we lack a lot of evidence has more to do with the use of wood for building.

The early reports talk of large populations everywhere. Each society had ways and means to sustain their soils. Then the steel axes arrived.

The natives were able to switch to slash and burn which is initially very successful for a couple of years or more. Then fertility collapses and the lands must be abandoned. This surely led to population collapse everywhere. We already know of the ravages of foreign diseases throughout the Americas. Unexpectantly we also have a huge reduction of the ecological niche itself as former farmlands were first abandoned for virgin fields and then lost under jungle.

This report shows what the diggers are now finding.

Pre-Columbian Tribes Had BBQs, Parties on Grave Sites

Alexis Okeowo

December 05, 2008

Some pre-Hispanic cultures in South America had elaborate celebrations at their cemeteries, complete with feasting and drinking grounds much like modern barbecue pits, according to a new archaeological study.

Excavations of 12th- and-13th-century burial mounds in the highlands of
Brazil and Argentina revealed numerous earthen ovens. The finds suggest that the graves were also sites of regular festivals held to commemorate the death of the community's chief.

"After they buried an important person on the burial grounds, they feasted on meat that had been steamed in the earth ovens and drank maize beer," said archaeologist and study co-author José Iriarte.

Large rings of raised earth surround the mounds, with paths leading to their centers. The rings are composed of a series of the ovens, which were built up over generations.

"This monumental tradition spread across kilometers, from southern São Paulo state in Brazil to Río Grande del Sur in Argentina," added Iriarte, a professor of archaeology at the University of Exeter in the U.K.

The Jê people, who occupied the area Iriarte refers to during the 12th and 13th centuries, are recorded as having often consumed an alcoholic beverage of maize and honey.

"They carried out these festivities in a period of the year when pine nuts [eaten at celebrations] and maize were abundant," Iriarte added. "These were important resources to them."

Researchers found ceramic vessels such as bowls and small drinking cylinders that still contained residues of corn. Unidentifiable animal remains were also discovered.

The findings are published in the December issue of the journal Antiquity.

Complex Societies

Archaeologists traditionally viewed the Jeê people as small, nomadic groups. But these discoveries prove that theory wrong, Iriarte said.

"This is an unexpected development in this part of southern America," he said.

"We think we are in the presence of a sizable, regionally organized population."

Along with the ovens, the team found big subterranean houses complete with roofs in a region rich with diverse plant and animal species, a desirable place to settle down, Iriarte added.

"They were able to combine hunting and gathering, horticulture, fishing, and slash-and-burn agriculture to sustain large populations," said Iriarte, who has been conducting archaeological digs in the area for years and is considered an expert on Jê culture.

Michael Heckenberger, an archaeologist and anthropologist at the University of Florida who specializes in the Amazon, explained that the environment in southern Brazil was previously believed to be difficult for sustaining large populations.

"But I think it is very clear that [Iriarte and colleagues] have demonstrated that these were more than marginal tribes," Heckenberger said.

"This is part of a growing body of research that shows that groups of people in lowlands in Brazil had large, socially complex groupings, sociopolitical organization and social patterns including feasting," he added.

The new evidence also shows that, opposed to other peoples in the region, the Jê had settlements and celebrations that were more dynamic and permanent, Heckenberger added.

Social Status

Other evidence has shown that the burial parties were reserved for renowned chiefs—who inherited their leadership positions—demonstrating "a moderate degree of political complexity," said Iriarte, whose work was funded in part by the National Geographic Society's
Committee for Research and Exploration. (National Geographic News is owned by the National Geographic Society.)

The chief's son usually sponsored the festivities, Iriarte added. That way, "the relative reaffirmed ties to ancestors and to his position in society."

The Jê were also reaffirming their territory, according to Iriarte. Around A.D. 1000, several other groups of people were migrating around the Brazilian and Argentine highlands. The burial monuments, situated on hilltops or ridges, clearly outlined Jê communities, Iriarte said.

"They are really marking their land," he added.

Wotans Kreiger on Homer in the Baltic

I have posted before on the book by Dr. Felice Vinci and have referred to the conclusions in other posts. Wotans Kreigar has done us a service by summarizing the thesis in a form easy to quickly read. This will give my readers a chance to appreciate the depth of the support that Dr. Vinci rallies to the argument without reading the whole book.
The evidence suggests that these events took place during the generation before the 1159 BCE Hekla catastrophe that overwhelmed this society. It was my memory of Homer that brought me to understand the central role of bronze in that culture and how it led to the palace system of culture.

I also concur with the argument that the setting described is not the Mediterranean. To begin with, it simply does not feel right. Dr. Vinci provides the detail to fill out the outline.

I am personally convinced, but then I have understood the nature and scope of the thousand year old European Bronze Age for a long time. This is just another confirmation comparable to the scale of copper mining in Lake Superior.

The real question is how long it will take for the ‘science’ of Archeology to properly reappraise the body of evidence that they have been assigning to the later Mycenaean world and labeling it as Homeric.

Most importantly, I like the timelines. It all took place shortly before Hekla but with enough time for the bardic community to share these tales throughout the cultural area of the Atlantean zone of influence. Thus they would have made it to Athens and Mycenae and throughout the Aegean, possibly already transcribed in some form of script, before the abrupt collapse.

Over the next few generations, while the economy recovered and evolved into the Greek polis, these tales were maintained and perhaps even polished before emerging in their final accepted written form in Greek culture.

The central importance of Athens is also now clearer since it had an important role in recieving Atlantean culture and transmitting it, even though the historic record shows them as rivals, but that was surely in the mercantile sense in view of the nature of their form of government.


HOMER IN THE BALTIC

Dr. Felice Vinci

Summary

The real scene of the Iliad and the Odyssey can be identified not in the Mediterranean Sea, where it proves to be weakened by many incongruities, but in the north of Europe. The sagas that gave rise to the two poems came from the Baltic regions, where the Bronze Age flourished in the 2nd millennium B.C. and many Homeric places, such as Troy and Ithaca, can still be identified. The blond seafarers who founded the Mycenaean civilization in the 16th century B.C. brought these tales from Scandinavia to Greece after the decline of the "climatic optimum". Then they rebuilt their original world, where the Trojan War and many other mythological events had taken place, in the Mediterranean; through many generations the memory of the heroic age and the feats performed by their ancestors in their lost homeland was preserved, and handed down to the following ages. This key allows us to easily open many doors that have been shut tight until now, as well as to consider the age-old question of the Indo-European Diaspora and the origin of the Greek civilization from a new perspective.


Ever since ancient times, Homeric geography has given rise to problems and uncertainty. The conformity of towns, countries and islands, which the poet often describes with a wealth of detail, with traditional Mediterranean places is usually only partial or even nonexistent. We find various cases in Strabo (the Greek geographer and historian, 63 B.C. – 23 A.D.), who, for example, does not understand why the island of Pharos, situated right in front of the port of Alexandria, in the Odyssey inexplicably appears to lie a day’s sail from Egypt. There is also the question of the location of Ithaca, which, according to very precise indications found in the Odyssey, is the westernmost in an archipelago which includes three main islands, Dulichium, Same and Zacynthus. This does not correspond to the geographic reality of the Greek Ithaca in the Ionian Sea, located north of Zacynthus, east of Cephallenia and south of Leucas. And then, what of the Peloponnese, described in both poems as a plain?

In other words, Homeric geography refers to a context with a toponymy with which we are familiar, but which, if compared with the actual physical layout of the Greek world, reveals glaring anomalies, which are hard to explain, if only on account of their consistency throughout the two poems. For example, the "strange" Peloponnese appears to be a plain not sporadically but regularly, and Dulichium, the "Long Island" (in Greek "dolichos" means "long") located by Ithaca, is repeatedly mentioned not only in the Odyssey but also in the Iliad, but was never discovered in the Mediterranean. Thus we are confronted with a world which appears actually closed and inaccessible, apart from some occasional convergences, although the names are familiar (this, however, tends to be more misleading than otherwise in solving the problem).

A possible key to finally penetrating this puzzling world is provided by Plutarch (46 – 120 A.D.). In his work De facie quae in orbe lunae apparet ("The face that appears in the moon circle"), he makes a surprising statement: the island of Ogygia, (where Calypso held Ulysses before allowing him to return to Ithaca) is located in the North Atlantic Ocean, "five days’ sail from Britain".

Plutarch’s indications lead us to identify Ogygia with one of the Faroe Islands (where we also come across an island with a Greek-sounding name: Mykines), Starting from here, the route eastwards, which Ulysses follows (Book V of the Odyssey) in his voyage from Ogygia to Scheria allows us to locate the latter, i.e. the land of the Phaeacians, on the southern coast of Norway, in an area perfectly fitting the account of his arrival, where archaeological traces of the Bronze Age are plentiful. Moreover, while on the one hand "sker" in Old Norse means a "sea rock", on the other in the narration of Ulysses’s landing Homer introduces the reversal of the river current (Od. V, 451-453), which is unknown in the Mediterranean world but is typical of the Atlantic estuaries during high tide.

From here the Phaeacians took Ulysses to Ithaca, located on the far side of an archipelago, which Homer talks about in great detail. At this point, a series of precise parallels makes it possible to identify a group of Danish islands, in the south of the Baltic Sea, which correspond exactly to all of Homer’s indications. Actually, the South-Fyn Archipelago includes three main islands: Langeland (the "Long Island"; which finally unveils the puzzle of the mysterious island of Dulichium), Aerø (which corresponds perfectly to Homeric Same) and Tåsinge (ancient Zacynthus). The last island in the archipelago, located westwards, "facing the night", is Ulysses’s Ithaca, now known as Lyø. It is astonishing how closely it coincides with the directions of the poet, not only in its position, but also its topographical and morphological features. And here, amongst this group of islands, we can also identify the little island "in the strait between Ithaca and Same", where Penelope’s suitors tried to waylay Telemachus.

Moreover, the Elis, i.e. one of the regions of the Peloponnese, is described as facing Dulichium, thus is easily identifiable with a part of the large Danish island of Zealand. Therefore, the latter is the original "Peloponnese", i.e. the "Island of Pelops", in the real meaning of the word "island" ("nêsos" in Greek). On the other hand, the Greek Peloponnese (which lies in a similar position in the Aegean Sea, i.e. on its southwestern side) is not an island, despite its name. Furthermore, the details reported in the Odyssey regarding both Telemachus’s swift journey by chariot from Pylos to Lacedaemon, along "a wheat-producing plain", and the war between Pylians and Epeans, as narrated in Book XI of the Iliad, have always been considered inconsistent with Greece’s uneven geography, while they fit in perfectly with the flat island of Zealand.

Let us look for the region of Troy now. In the Iliad it is located along the Hellespont Sea, which is systematically described as being "wide" or even "boundless". We can, therefore, exclude the fact that it refers to the Strait of the Dardanelles, where the city found by Schliemann lies. The identification of this city with Homer’s Troy still raises strong doubts: we only have to think of Finley’s criticism in the World of Odysseus. It is also remarkable that Schliemann’s site corresponds to the location of the Greek-Roman Troy; however, Strabo categorically denies that the latter is identifiable with the Homeric city (Geography 13, 1, 27). On the other hand, the Danish Medieval historian Saxo Grammaticus, in his Gesta Danorum, often mentions a population known as "Hellespontians" and a region called Hellespont, which, strangely enough, seems to be located in the east of the Baltic Sea. Could it be Homer’s Hellespont? We can identify it with the Gulf of Finland, which is the geographic counterpart of the Dardanelles (as both of them lie northeast of their respective basins). Since Troy, as we can infer from a passage in the Iliad (XXI, 334-335), lay northeast of the sea (further reason to dispute Schliemann’s location), then it seems reasonable, for the purpose of this research, to look at a region of southern Finland, where the Gulf of Finland joins the Baltic Sea. In this area, west of Helsinki, we find a number of name-places which astonishingly resemble those mentioned in the Iliad and, in particular, those given to the allies of the Trojans: Askainen (Ascanius), Karjaa (Caria), Nästi (Nastes, the chief of the Carians), Lyökki (Lycia), Tenala (Tenedos), Kiila (Cilla), Raisio (Rhesus), Kiikoinen (the Ciconians) etc. There is also a Padva, which reminds us of Italian Padua, which was founded, according to tradition, by the Trojan Antenor and lies in Venetia (the "Eneti" or "Veneti" were allies of the Trojans). What is more, the place-names Tanttala and Sipilä (the mythical King Tantalus, famous for his torment, was buried on Mount Sipylus) indicate that this matter is not only limited to Homeric geography, but seems to extend to the whole world of Greek mythology.

What about Troy? Right in the middle of this area, halfway between Helsinki and Turku, we discover that King Priam’s city has survived the Achaean sack and fire. Its characteristics correspond exactly to those Homer handed down to us: the hilly area which dominates the valley with its two rivers, the plain which slopes down towards the coast, and the highlands in the background. It has even maintained its own name almost unchanged throughout all this time. Today, "Toija" is a peaceful Finnish village, unaware of its glorious and tragic past.

Various trips to these places, from July 11 1992 onwards, have confirmed the extraordinary correspondence between the Iliad’s descriptions and the area surrounding Toija. What is more, there we come across many significant traces of the Bronze Age. Incredibly, towards the sea we find a place called Aijala, which recalls the "beach" ("aigialos"), where, according to Homer, the Achaeans beached their ships (Il. XIV, 34). The correspondence extends to the neighbouring areas. For example, along the Swedish coast facing Southern Finland, 70 km north of Stockholm, the long and relatively narrow Bay of Norrtälje recalls Homeric Aulis, whence the Achaean fleet set sail for Troy.


Nowadays, ferries leave here for Finland, following the same ancient course. They pass the island of Lemland, whose name reminds us of ancient Lemnos, where the Achaeans stopped and abandoned the hero Philoctetes. Nearby is Åland, the largest island of the homonymous archipelago, which probably coincides with Samothrace, the mythical site of the metalworking mysteries. The adjacent Gulf of Bothnia is easily identifiable with Homer’s Thracian Sea, and the ancient Thrace, which the poet places to the northwest of Troy on the opposite side of the sea, probably lay along the northern Swedish coast and its hinterland (it is remarkable that the Younger Edda identifies the home of the god Thor with Thrace). Further south, outside the Gulf of Finland, the island of Hiiumaa, situated opposite the Esthonian coast, corresponds exactly to Homer’s Chios, which, according to the Odyssey, lay on the return course of the Achaean fleet after the war.

In short, apart from the morphological features of this area, the geographic position of the Finnish Troas fits Homer’s directions like a glove. Actually, this explains why a "thick fog" often fell on those fighting on the Trojan plain, and Ulysses’s sea is never as bright as that of the Greek islands, but always "dark-wine" and "misty". As we travel through Homer’s world, we experience the harsh weather which is typical of the Northern world. Everywhere in the two poems the weather, with its fog, wind, rain, cold temperatures and snow (which falls on the plains and even out to sea), has little in common with the Mediterranean climate; moreover, sun and warm temperatures are hardly ever mentioned. There are countless examples of this; for instance, when Ulysses recalls an episode of the Trojan War: "The night was bad, after the north wind dropped,/ and freezing; then the snow began to fall like icy frost/ and ice congealed on our shields" (Od. XIV, 475-477). In a word, most of the time the weather is unsettled, so much so that a bronze-clad fighting warrior invokes a cloudless sky during the battle (Il. XVII, 643-646). We are worlds away from the torrid Anatolian lowlands. The way in which Homer’s characters are dressed is in perfect keeping with this kind of climate. In the sailing season they wear tunics and heavy cloaks which they never remove, not even during banquets. This attire corresponds exactly to the remains of clothing found in Bronze Age Danish graves, down to such details as the metal brooch which pinned the cloak at the shoulder (Od. XIX, 226). Moreover, this fits in perfectly with what Tacitus states on Germanic clothing: "The suit for everyone is a cape with a buckle" ("sagum fibula consertum"; Germania, 17, 1).

This northern collocation also explains the huge anomaly of the great battle which takes up the central books of the Iliad. The battle continues for two days (Il. XI, 86; XVI, 777) and one night (Il. XVI, 567). The fact that the darkness does not put a stop to the fighting is incomprehensible in the Mediterranean world, but it becomes clear in the Baltic setting. What allows Patroclus’s fresh troops to carry on fighting through to the following day, without a break, is the faint night light, which is typical of high latitudes during the summer solstice. This interpretation – corroborated by the overflowing of the Scamander during the following battle (in the northern regions this occurs in May or June owing to the thaw) – allows us to reconstruct the stages of the whole battle in a coherent manner, dispelling the present-day perplexities and strained interpretations. Furthermore, we even manage to pick out from a passage in the Iliad (VII, 433) the Greek word used to denominate the faintly-lit nights typical of the regions located near the Arctic Circle: the "amphilyke nyx" is a real "linguistic fossil" which, thanks to the Homeric epos, has survived the migration of the Achaeans to Southern Europe.It is also important to note that the Trojan walls, as described by Homer, appear as a sort of rustic fence made of wood and stone, similar to the archaic Northern wooden enclosures (such as the Kremlin Walls up to the 15th century) much more than the mighty strongholds of the Aegean civilizations.

Troy, therefore, was not deserted after the Achaeans plundered and burnt it down, but was rebuilt, as the Iliad states: "At this point Zeus has come to hate Priam’s stock,/ so Aeneas’s power will rule the Trojans now/ and then his children’s children and those who will come later on" (Il. XX, 306-308). On the contrary, Virgil’s quite tendentious, and much more recent, tale of Aeneas’s flight by sea from the burning city of Troy (a homage paid to the emperor Augustus’s family, considered Aeneas’s descendant) is absolutely unrelated to the real destiny of the Trojan hero and his city after the war. As regards this "Finnish" Aeneas, the first king of the dynasty that, according with Homer, ruled Troy after the war (that is a kingdom which, under Priam, dominated a vast area in southern Finland; Il. XXIV, 544-546) it should be very tempting to suppose a relationship between his name and "Aeningia", Finland’s name in Roman times (Pliny, Natural History, IV, 96).

It is remarkable that farmers often come across Bronze and Stone Age relics in the fields surrounding Toija. This is proof of human settlements in this territory many thousands of years ago. Further, in the area surrounding Salo (only 20 km from Toija), archaeologists have found splendid specimens of swords and spear points that date back to the Bronze Age and are now on display in the National Museum of Helsinki. These findings come from burial places, which include tumuli made of large mounds of stones that can be found at the top of certain hills, which rise from the plain today, but which, thousands of years ago, when the coastline was not as far back as it is nowadays, faced directly onto the sea. This relates to a passage in the Iliad, where Hector challenges an Achaean hero to a duel, undertaking, in case of victory, to give back the corpse of his opponent "so that the long-haired Achaeans can bury him/ and erect a mound for him on the broad Hellespont,/ and some day one of the men to come,/ sailing with a multioared ship on the wine-dark sea, will say:/ ’This is the mound of a man slain in ancient times,/ he excelled but renowned Hector killed him’" (Il. VII, 85-90; the description of Achilles’ tomb in the last canto of the Odyssey is analogous). These Homeric mounds "on the broad Hellespont" and the Bronze Age ones near Salo are remarkably similar. Moreover, Beowulf’s mound, which is described in the ancient English poem Beowulf (7th century AD), is very similar to Homer’s description (Beowulf, l. 2802-2808).

Let us now examine the so-called Catalogue of Ships from Book II of the Iliad, that lists the twenty-nine Achaean fleets which took part in the Trojan War, together with the names of their captains and places of origin. This list unwinds in an anticlockwise direction, starting from Central Sweden, travelling along the Baltic coasts and finishing in Finland. If we combine this with the data contained in the two poems and in the rest of Greek mythology, we may completely reconstruct the Achaean world around the Baltic Sea, where, as archaeology confirms, the Bronze Age was flourishing in the 2nd millennium B.C., favoured by a warmer climate than today’s.

In this new geographical context, the entire universe belonging to Homer and Greek mythology finally discloses itself with its astonishing consistency. For example, by following the Catalogue sequence, we immediately locate Boeotia (corresponding to the area around Stockholm). Here it is easy to identify Oedipus’s Thebes and the mythical Mount Nysa (which was never found in the Greek world), where the Hyads nursed baby Dionysus. Homer’s Euboea coincides with today’s island of Öland, located off the Swedish coast in a similar position to that of its Mediterranean counterpart. Mythical Athens, Theseus’s native land, lay in the area of present day Karlskrona in southern Sweden (this explains why Plato, in his dialogue Critias, refers to it as being an undulating plain full of rivers, which is totally alien to Greece’s rough morphology). The features of other Achaean cities, such as Mycenae or Calydon, as described by Homer also appear completely different from those of their namesakes on Greek soil. In particular, Mycenae lay in the site of today’s Copenhagen, where the island of Amager possibly recalls its ancient name and explains why it was in the plural. Here, in the flat island of Zealand (i.e. the Homeric "Peloponnese"), we can easily identify Agamemnon’s and Menelaus’s kingdoms, Arcadia, the River Alpheus, and in particular, king Nestor’s Pylos, whose location was held to be a mystery even by the ancient Greeks. By setting Homer’s poems in the Baltic, this age-old puzzle is also solved at once. What is more, it is equally easy to solve the problem of the strange border between Argolis and Pylos, which is mentioned in the Iliad (IX, 153) but is "impossible" in the Greek world.

After the Peloponnese, the Catalogue mentions Dulichium and continues with Ithaca’s archipelago, which was already identified by making use of the indications the Odyssey supplies. We are thus able to verify the consistency of the information contained in the two poems as well as their congruity with the Baltic geography. After Ithaca, the list continues with the Aetolians, who recall the ancient Jutes. They gave their name to Jutland, which actually lies near the South-Fyn Islands. Homer mentions Pylene in the Aetolian cities, which corresponds to today’s Plön, in Northern Germany, not far from Jutland. Opposite this region, in the North Sea, the name of Heligoland, one of the North Frisian Islands, recalls Helike, a sanctuary of the god Poseidon mentioned in the Iliad (it is remarkable that an old name for Heligoland was Fositesland, where "Fosite", an ancient Frisian god, is virtually identical to Poseidon).


As regards Crete, the "vast land" with "a hundred cities" and many rivers, which is never referred to as an island by Homer, it corresponds to the Pomeranian region in the southern Baltic area, which stretches from the German coast to the Polish same. This explains why in the rich pictorial productions of the Minoan civilization, which flourished in Aegean Crete, we find no hint of Greek mythology, and ships are so scantily represented. It would also be tempting to assume a relationship between the name "Polska" and the Pelasgians, the inhabitants of Homeric Crete. At this point, it is also easy to identify Naxos (where Theseus left Ariadne on his return journey from "Crete" to "Athens") with the island of Bornholm, situated between Poland and Sweden, where the town of Neksø still recalls the ancient name of the island. Likewise, we discover that the Odyssey’s "River Egypt" probably coincides with the present-day Vistula, thus revealing the real origin of the name the Greeks gave to Pharaohs’ land, known as "Kem" in the local language. This explains the incongruous position of the Homeric Egyptian Thebes, which, according to the Odyssey, is located near the sea. Evidently the Egyptian capital, which on the contrary lies hundreds of kilometres from the Nile delta and was originally known as Wò’se, was renamed by the Achaeans with the name of a Baltic city, after they moved down to the Mediterranean. The real Thebes probably was the present-day Tczew, on the Vistula delta. To the north of the latter, in the centre of the Baltic Sea, the island of Fårö recalls the Homeric Pharos, which according to the Odyssey lay in the middle of the sea at a day’s sail from "Egypt" (whereas Mediterranean Pharos is not even a mile’s distance from the port of Alexandria). Here is the solution to another puzzle of Homeric geography that so perturbed Strabo. It is also remarkable that a barbaric population lived near the mouth of the Vistula until the 3rd century A.D.: we are referring to the "Gepids", whose name recalls the name "Aigyptos". This corroborates the idea that the Homeric Egypt lay around the Vistula delta.

The Catalogue of Ships now touches the Baltic Republics. Hellas lay on the coast of present-day Esthonia, and thus next to the Homeric Hellespont (i.e. the "Helle Sea"), today’s Gulf of Finland. As to Phthia, Achilles’s homeland, it lay on the fertile hills of southeastern Esthonia, along the border with Latvia and Russia, stretching as far as the Russian river Velikaja and the lake of Pskov. Myrmidons and Phthians lived there, ruled by Achilles and Protesilaus (the first Achaean captain who fell in the Trojan War) respectively. In this area also lies Kurland – the Curians’ country, that is the mythical Curetes, linked with the worship of Zeus – where is found the figure of a supreme god, who is called Dievas in Lithuania and Dievs in Latvia; in local folklore he shows features typical of Hellenic Zeus (the genitive case of the name "Zeus" in Greek is "Diòs"; Il. I, 5). Moreover, Lithuanian has very archaic features and a notable affinity with the ancient Indo-European language.

Here we reach the region of Livonia, which is presently divided between Esthonia and Latvia. We could assume a relationship with Homeric Libya, which the Odyssey mentions in two episodes. One of these tells of a ship heading for Libya, which was sailing "in the open sea off Crete" (Od. XIV, 300). Although vague, this description fits Livonia’s position in relation to the Polish coast, i.e. "Baltic Crete". It probably refers to the shipping routes followed in the southern Baltic during the Early Bronze Age. The name of Livonia derives from an ancient Baltic people, which is almost extinct today. They are known as the Livonians, who are farmers and stockbreeders, attaching special importance to livestock. There newlyweds traditionally receive domestic animals as wedding presents; these animals also "play a leading role in funerals" (Treccani, see "Livi"). This all fits in very well with a passage where Homer describes Libya as a land of stockbreeders, where "flocks lamb three times in the course of a year./ Neither the owner or the shepherd ever lack/ cheese, meat or sweet milk,/ but sheep provide plentiful milk all the time" (Od. IV, 86-89). If today’s Livonians really were the descendants of the Homeric Libyans, then they would be an extraordinary example of cultural persistence over the course of 4000 years, from the Early Bronze Age to the modern era. The name of ancient Libya still echoes in the city of Liepãja (Western Latvia), which is called Libava in Russian and Libau in German.

Next, proceeding with the sequence, we reach the Finnish coast, facing the Gulf of Bothnia, where we find Jolkka, which reminds us of Iolcus, Jason’s mythical city. Further north, we are also able to identify the region of Olympus, Styx and Pieria in Finnish Lapland (which in turn recalls the Homeric Lapithae, i.e. the sworn enemies of the Centaurs who also lived in this area). This location of Pieria north of the Arctic Circle is confirmed by an apparent astronomical anomaly, linked to the moon cycle, which is found in the Homeric Hymn to Hermes: it can only be explained by the high latitude. The "Home of Hades" was even further northwards, on the icy coasts of Russian Karelia: here Ulysses arrived, his journeys representing the last vestige of prehistoric routes in an era which was characterised by a very different climate from today’s.

In conclusion, from this review of the Baltic world, we find its astonishing consistency with the Catalogue of Ships – which is, therefore, an extraordinary "photograph" of the Northern Early Bronze Age peoples – as well as with the whole of Greek mythology. It is very unlikely that this immense number of geographic, climatic, toponymical and morphological parallels is to be ascribed to mere chance, even leaving aside the glaring contradictions arising from the Mediterranean setting.

As regards Ulysses’ trips, after the Trojan War, when he is about to reach Ithaca, a storm takes him away from his world; so he has many adventures in fabulous localities until he reaches Ogygia, that is one of the Faroe Islands. These adventures, presumably taken from tales of ancient seamen and elaborated again by the poet's fantasy, represent the last memory of the sea routes followed by the ancient navigators of the Northern Bronze Age out of the Baltic, in the North Atlantic (where the "Ocean River" flows, i.e. the Gulf Stream), but they became unrecognizable because of their transposition into a totally different context. For example, the Eolian island, ruled by the "King of the winds", "son of the Knight", is one of the Shetlands (maybe Yell), where there are strong winds and ponies. Cyclops lived in the coast of Norway (near Tosenfjorden: the name of their mother is Toosa): they coincide with the Trolls of the Norwegian folklore. The land of Lestrigonians was in the same coast, towards the North; Homer says that there the days are very long (the famous scholar Robert Graves places the Lestrigonians in the North of Norway; moreover, in that area we find the island of Lamøj, which is probably the Homeric Lamos). The island of sorceress Circe – where there are clear hints at the midnight sun (Od. X, 190-192) and the revolving dawns (Od. XII, 3-4), typical phenomena of the Arctic regions – is one of the Lofoten, beyond the Arctic Circle. Charybdis is the well-known whirlpool named Maelstrom, south of the island of Moskenes (one of the Lofoten). South of Charybdis Odysseus meets the island Thrinakia, that means "trident": really, near the Maelstrom lies Mosken, a three-tip island. The Sirens are shoals and shallows, off the western face of the Lofoten, before the Maelstrom area, which are made even more dangerous by the fog and the size of the tides. The sailors could be attracted by the misleading noise of the backwash (the "Sirens’ Song" is a metaphor similar to Norse "kenningar") on the half-hidden rocks into deceiving themselves that landing is at hand, but if they get near, shipwreck on the reefs is inevitable.

Besides, we can find remarkable parallels between Greek and Norse mythology: for example, Ulysses is similar to Ull, archer and warrior of Norse mythology; the sea giant Aegaeon (who gave his name to the Aegean Sea) is the counterpart of the Norse sea god Aegir, and Proteus, the Old Man of the Sea (who is a mythical shepherd of seals, who lives in the sea depths and is capable of foretelling the future) is similar to the "marmendill" (mentioned by the Hàlfs Saga ok Hàlfsrekka and the Landnàmabòk), a very odd creature, who resembles a misshapen man with a seal-shaped body below the waist, and has the gift of prophecy but only talks when he feels like it, just like Proteus. On the other hand, there are remarkable analogies between the Achaean and Viking ships: by comparing the details of Homeric ships with the remains of Viking ships found in the bay of Roskilde, we realize that their features were very similar. We refer to the flat keel (one infers this from Od. XIII, 114), the double prow (we can deduce this from the expression "amphiélissai" Homer frequently uses with regard to their double curve, i.e. at the stern and the prow), and the removable mast – this is a sophisticated feature typical of Viking ships, which was typical of Homeric ships, too: many passages in both the Iliad (I, 434; I, 480) and the Odyssey (II, 424-425; VIII, 52) confirm without a shadow of doubt that the operations of setting up and taking down the mast were customary at the beginning and the end of each mission.

More generally speaking, apart from the respective mythologies, remarkable parallels are found between the customs of the Achaeans and those of the populations of Northern Europe, although they are separated by almost 3000 years. The systems of social relations, interests and lifestyles of the Homeric world and Viking society, despite the elapsed years, are surprisingly similar. For instance, the "agorà", the public assembly in the Homeric world, corresponds to the "thing" of the Vikings: this was the most important political moment in the running of the community for both peoples. In his turn, Tacitus informs us that at his time the northern populations held public assemblies (Germania, chap. 11), that appear to be very similar to the "thing" (therefore, to the "agorà", too). In a word, the parallels between the Homeric Achaeans, who lived during the Bronze Age, the Germans of the Roman period, and the Medieval Vikings testify to the continuity of the Northern world throughout the ages.

We should note that many Homeric peoples, as the Danaans, Pelasgians, Dorians, Curetes, Lybians and Lapithae, whose traces are not found in the Mediterranean, probably still exist in the Baltic world: they find their present counterparts in the Danes, Poles, Thuringians, Kurlandians, Livonians and Lapps (this identification is supported by their respective geographic locations). Moreover, both poems mention the Sintians, mythical inhabitants of Lemnos who were linked with the smith god Hephaestus (Il. I, 594; Od. VIII, 294): their name is exactly the same as today’s "Sintians", i.e. a tribe of Gypsies’, who traditionally are metalworkers and coppersmiths. We also note a possible relationship between the "Argives", another name for the Achaeans, "Argeioi" in Greek – i.e. (V)argeioi, considering the usual loss of the initial V (the "digamma") in the Homeric language – and the "Varangians" (Swedish Vikings). As regards the Homeric "Danaans" ("Dànaioi" in Greek, who were also Achaeans), at the beginning of the Gesta Danorum Saxo Grammaticus states that "Dudon, who wrote a story about Aquitania, believes that the Danes owe their origins and name to the Danaans" (I, I, 1). This comparison has hitherto been interpreted as a means of exalting the origin of the Danes, but now one could start to see them in a new light. If we still dwell upon the digamma, we should consider now the relationship between the Greek words "areté" (valour) and "àte" (fault or error) and their Latin counterparts "virtus" and ""vitium" respectively (apart from the initial V, the vowels A and I are often interchangeable: for example, "ambush" corresponds to the Italian "imboscata"). By applying the same alteration (i.e. A→VI) to the name of the "Achaeans" ("Achaioi" in Greek), we get the word "Vikings". In a word, the Argeioi, Danaioi and Achaioi, i.e. the three main names Homer gives the protagonists of his poems, possibly came down to modern times as the Varangians, Danes and Vikings (never found in the Mediterranean area, even in ancient times) respectively.

Here, therefore, is the "secret" which is hidden inside Homer’s poems and is responsible for all the oddities of Homeric geography: the Trojan War and the other events Greek mythology handed down were not set in the Mediterranean, but in the Baltic area, i.e. the primitive home of the blond, "long-haired" Achaeans (the Odyssey claims that Ulysses was fair-haired; XIII, 399; XIII, 431). On this subject, the distinguished Swedish scholar, Professor Martin P. Nilsson, in his works reports considerable archaeological evidence uncovered in the Mycenaean sites in Greece, corroborating their northern origin. Some examples are: the existence of a large quantity of baltic amber in the most ancient Mycenaean tombs in Greece (which is not to be ascribed to trade, because the amber is very scarce in the coeval Minoan tombs in Crete as well as in later graves on the continent); the typically Northern features of their architecture (the Mycenaean megaron is identical to the hall of the ancient Scandinavian Kings); the similarity of two stone slabs found in a tomb in Dendra with the menhirs known from the Bronze Age of Central Europe; the Northern-type skulls found in the necropolis of Kalkani, etc.. Moreover, Aegean art and Scandinavian remains dating back to the Bronze Age present a remarkable affinity – for example, the figures engraved on Kivik’s tomb in Sweden – so much so that a 19th century scholar suggested the monument was built by the Phoenicians.

Another sign of the Achaean presence in the Northern world in a very distant past is a Mycenaean graffito found in the megalithic complex of Stonehenge in Southern England. Other remains revealing the Mycenaean influence were found in the same area ("Wessex culture"), which date back to a period preceding the Mycenaean civilization in Greece. A trace of contact is found in the Odyssey, which mentions a market for bronze placed overseas, in a foreign country, named "Temese", never found in the Mediterranean area. Since bronze is an alloy of copper and tin, which in the North is only found in Cornwall, it is very likely that the mysterious Temese corresponds to the Thames, named "Tamesis" or "Tamensim" in ancient times. So, following Homer, we learn that, during the Bronze Age, the ancient Scandinavians used to sail to Temese-Thames, "placed overseas in a foreign country", to supply themselves with bronze.

This theory – which has already undergone a positive check by means of inspections carried out on the territories concerned, and meets Popper’s requirement on "falsifiability" – solves many other problems, such as the backwardness of the Homeric civilization compared to the Mycenaeans’; the absence of reference to seafaring and Greek mythology in the Minoan-Cretan world; the inconsistencies between the morphology of several Homeric cities, such as Mycenae and Calydon, and their Greek namesakes; the absurdities concerning the regions of the Peloponnese, and the distance of the allies of the Trojans from the Dardanelles area, and so on. We should also note that oxen are of the utmost importance in the Homeric world: this is the yet further evidence that we are not dealing with a Greek setting, undoubtedly more suitable for goats than oxen, but with a Northern one. Moreover, in a Greek environment one would expect a surfeit of pottery, but this is not the case: in both poems tableware is made solely of metal or wood, while pottery is absent. The poet talks of metal vases, usually of gold or silver. For example, in Ulysses’s palace in Ithaca, "a maid came to pour water from a beautiful/ golden jug into a silver basin" (Od. I, 136-137). People poured wine "into gold goblets" (Od. III, 472) and "gold glasses" (Od. I, 142). Lamps (Od. XIX, 34), cruets (Od. VI, 79) and urns, like the one (Il. XXIII, 253) containing Patroclus’s bones, were made of gold. The vessels used for pouring wine were also of metal: when one of them fell to the ground, instead of breaking, it "boomed" (Od. XVIII, 397). In a word, on the one hand, the Homeric poems do not mention any ceramic pottery, which is typical of the Mediterranean world, but, on the other, they are strikingly congruent with the Northern world, where scholars find a stable and highly advanced bronze founding industry, compared to the pottery one, which was far more modest. As to the poor, they used wooden jugs (Od. IX, 346; XVI, 52), i.e. the cheapest and most natural form of vessel, considering the abundance of this material in the North: Esthonia and Latvia have a very ancient tradition of wooden beer tankards.

Therefore, it was along the Baltic coast that Homer’s events took place, before the Mycenaean migration southwards, in the 16th century B.C.. This period is close to the end of an exceptionally hot climate that had lasted several thousands of years, the "post-glacial climatic optimum". It corresponds to the Atlantic phase of the Holocene, when temperatures in northern Europe were much higher than today (at that time the broad-leaved forests reached the Arctic Circle and the tundra disappeared even from the northernmost areas of Europe). The "climatic optimum" reached its peak around 2500 B.C. and began to drop around 2000 B.C. ("Sub-Boreal phase"), until it came to an end some centuries later. It is highly likely that this was the cause that obliged the Achaeans to move down to the Mediterranean for this reason. They probably followed the Dnieper river down to the Black Sea, as the Vikings (whose culture is, in many ways, quite similar) did many centuries later. The Mycenaean civilisation, which did not originate in Greece, was thus born and went on to flourish from the 16th century B.C., soon after the change in North European climate.

The migrants took their epos and geography along with them and attributed the same names they had left behind in their lost homeland to the various places where they eventually settled. This heritage was immortalized by the Homeric poems and Greek mythology (the latter lost the memory of the great migration from the North probably after the collapse of the Mycenaean civilization, around the 12th century B.C., but kept a vague memory of its "hyperborean" links). Moreover, they renamed with Baltic names not only the new countries where they settled, but also other Mediterranean regions, such as Libya, Crete and Egypt, thus creating an enormous "geographical misunderstanding" which has lasted until now. The above-mentioned transpositions of Northern place-names were certainly encouraged, if not suggested, by a certain similarity (which the Mycenaeans realized owing to their inclination for seafaring) between Baltic geography and that of the Aegean: we only have to think of the analogy Öland-Euboea or Zealand-Peloponnese (where they were obliged to force the concept of island in order to maintain the original layout). The increasing presence of Greek-speaking populations in the Mediterranean basin, with their cultural and trade supremacy, later consolidated this phenomenon, from the time of Mycenaean civilization to the Hellenistic-Roman period.In short, besides the geographic correspondences, in favour of this theory there is the remarkable temporal concurrence between the end of the "climatic optimum" in northern Europe and the settling of the Mycenaeans in the Aegean area. We should also note that a catastrophic event happened at that time: we refer to the eruption of the volcano of Thera (Santorini), around the year 1630 B.C., which presumably extinguished the Minoan civilization in Crete and certainly had severe climatic consequences worldwide (traces of it were found even in the annual rings of very ancient American trees), giving rise to atmospheric phenomena which must have terrorized the Bronze Age civilizations in Northern Europe. If we consider that the "optimum" had begun to decline some centuries before, this event probably started, or quickened, the final collapse.

This is the same age as the arising of Aryan, Hyksos, Hittite and Cassite settlements in India, Egypt, Anatolia and Mesopotamia respectively. In a word, the end of the " climatic optimum" can explain the cause of the contemporary migrations of other Indo-European populations (following a recent research carried on by Prof. Jahanshah Derakhshani of Teheran University, the Hyksos very likely belong to the Indo-European family). The original homeland of the Indo-Europeans was probably located in the furthest north of Europe, when the climate was much warmer than today’s. However, on the one hand G.B. Tilak in The Arctic home of the Vedas claims the Arctic origin of the Aryans, "cousins" of the Achaeans, on the other both Iranian and Norse mythology remember that the original homeland was destroyed by cold and ice. It is also remarkable that, following Tilak (The Orion), the original Aryan civilization flourished in the "Orionic period", when the constellation of Orion marked the spring equinox. It happened in the period from 4000 up to 2500 B.C., corresponding to the peak of the "climatic optimum". We also note the presence of a population known as the Tocharians in the Tarim Basin (northwest China) from the beginning of the 2nd millennium B.C. They spoke an Indo-European language and were tall, blond with Caucasian features. This dating provides us with yet another confirmation of the close relationship between the decline of the "climatic optimum" and the Indo-European diaspora from Scandinavia and other Northern regions. In this picture, it is amazing that the Bronze Age starts in China just between the 18th and the 16th centuries B.C. (Shang dynasty). We should note that the Chinese pictograph indicating the king is called "wang", which is very similar to the Homeric term "anax", i.e. "the king" (corresponding to "wanax" in Mycenaean Linear B tablets). On the other hand, the terms "Yin" and "Yang" (which express two complementary principles of Chinese philosophy: Yin is feminine, Yang masculine) could be compared with the Greek roots "gyn-" and "andr-" respectively, which also refer to the "woman" and the "man" ("anér edé gyné", "man and woman", Od. VI, 184). Moreover, it is no accident that in this period the Steppe peoples – the Scythians, as the Greeks used to call them – who were blond or red-haired, flourished in the area where the Volga and the Dnieper run, the rivers that played such an important role as trade and transit routes between north and south. A passage from Herodotus about the origin of the Scythians corroborates this picture: "They say that 1000 years elapsed from their origin and their first king Targitaos to Darius’s expedition against them" (History, IV, 7). As this expedition dates back to 514 B.C., their origin would thus date back to the 16th century B.C., i.e. the epoch of the Mycenaean migration. One could venture to include in this picture the Olmecs also. They seem to have reached the southern Gulf Coast of Mexico in about the same period; thus, one could infer that they were a population who had formerly lived in the extreme north of the Americas (being connected to the Indo-European civilization through the Arctic Ocean, which was not frozen at that time), and then moved to the South when the climate collapsed (this, of course, could help to explain certain similarities with the Old World, apart from other possible contacts).Returning to Homer, this reconstruction not only explains the extraordinary consistency between the Baltic-Scandinavian context and Homer’s world (compared to all the contradictions, over which the ancient Greek scholars racked their brains in vain, arising when one tries to place the Homeric geography in the Mediterranean), but also clarifies why the latter was decidedly more archaic than the Mycenaean civilization. Evidently, the contact with the refined Mediterranean and Eastern cultures favoured its rapid evolution, also considering their marked inclination for trade and seafaring which pervades not only the Homeric poems, but also all Greek mythology. Furthermore, this thesis fits in very well with the strong seafaring characterisation of the Mycenaeans. As a matter of fact, archaeologists confirm that the latter had been intensely practicing seafaring from their settling in Greece (their trade stations are found in many Mediterranean shores). Therefore, they had inherited a tradition dating back to a long time before, which implies that their original land lay near the sea. Further, the northern features of their architecture and their own physical traits fit in perfectly with the parallels between Homeric and Norse myths, which not only possess extremely archaic features, but also are of an undeniably seafaring nature. This is hard to explain with the current hypotheses about the continental origin of the Indo-Europeans, whereas the remains found in England fit in very well with the idea of a previous coastal homeland (by associating this with the typically northern features of their architecture we remove any doubt as to their place of origin).

Many signs prove the antiquity of the two poems and their temporal incongruity with Greek culture (this also explains why any reliable information regarding the author, or authors, of the poems had been lost before classical times), showing that they in fact belong to a "barbaric" European civilization, very far from the Aegean, as has been noticed by authoritative scholars, such as Prof. Stuart Piggott in his Ancient Europe. Moreover, Radiocarbon dating, corrected with dendrochronology (i.e. tree-ring calibration) has recently questioned the dogma of the Eastern origin of European civilization. Prof. Colin Renfrew describes the consequences for traditional chronology: "These changes bring with them a whole series of alarming reversals in chronological relationships. The megalithic tombs of western Europe now become older than the Pyramids or the round tombs of Crete, their supposed predecessors. The early metal-using cultures of the Balkans antedate Troy and the early bronze age Aegean, from which they were supposedly derived. And in Britain, the final structure of Stonehenge, once thought to be the inspiration of Mycenaean architectural expertise, was complete well before the Mycenaean civilization began" (Before civilization, the radiocarbon revolution and prehistoric Europe, chap. 4, "The Tree-ring Calibration of Radiocarbon"). Consequently, Prof. Renfrew goes so far as to say: "The whole carefully constructed edifice comes crashing down, and the story-line of the standard textbooks must be discarded" (Before civilization, chap. 5, "The Collapse of the Traditional Framework").To conclude, this key could allow us to easily open many doors that have been shut tight until now, as well as to consider the age-old question of the Indo-European diaspora from a new perspective.

Felice Vinci, Omero nel Baltico ("Homer in the Baltic"), with introduction by R. Calzecchi Onesti and F. Cuomo. Publisher: Fratelli Palombi Editori, 2nd edition 1998, Rome. ISBN: 88-7621-211-6 (an English translation is available).
Dr. Felice Vinci

Posted by Wotans Krieger at
06:50

Sea Level Rise Halted

Over the months there has been mention in the media of the risk of rising sea levels usually tied to an ice berg or two calving off Green land that I have largely ignored simply because it was inconsequential and a clear bit of throw away pandering to the global warming crowd and at best a pretense.

A minute rise in the sea level had been measured over the decades in any event, long before the current enthusiasm.

This report gives us an update of the current trend and it is obvious that for the past three years, the rise has halted completely. We do not infer more than the fact that the addition of ice in the mountains and ice sheets has now balanced the removal by melting at the foot of glaciers. It has not reversed but that could well change over the next three years.

Again, creditable data truly exists only with the access to satellites. Prior data had to accommodate a variable accounting for the vertical movement of the land itself. That was completely taken out with satellites. The land may well still rise or fall an inch per century but it is no longer needs to be used to measure sea levels directly.

I for one would be happy to see a few years of decline to set in so that future movement has less impact on observers.

5 12 2008

We’ve been waiting for the UC web page to be updated with the most recent sea level data. It finally has been updated for 2008. It looks like the steady upward trend of sea level as measured by satellite has stumbled since 2005. The 60 day line in blue tells the story.

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg

Source: University of Colorado, Boulder

From the University of Colorado
web page:

Since August 1992 the satellite altimeters have been measuring sea level on a global basis with unprecedented accuracy. The TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) satellite mission provided observations of sea level change from 1992 until 2005. Jason-1, launched in late 2001 as the successor to T/P, continues this record by providing an estimate of global mean sea level every 10 days with an uncertainty of 3-4 mm.

They also say:

Long-term mean sea level change is a variable of considerable interest in the studies of
global climate change. The measurement of long-term changes in global mean sea level can provide an important corroboration of predictions by climate models of global warming. Long term sea level variations are primarily determined with two different methods.

Yes, I would agree, it is indeed a variable of considerable interest. The question now is, how is it linked to global climate change (aka global warming) if CO2 continues to increase, and sea level does not?

There’s an interesting event in October 2005 that I’ll come back to in a couple of days.
(h/t to Mike Bryant)

Monday, December 8, 2008

Meteor Spoor 12900 BCE

More data is slowly popping up now that it is circulating that a major blast took place around 12900 BCE, close to the North Pole. While I am partial to a large meteor impact, there is some suggestion that a nuclear blast took place. However, the radioactives picked up on could well have been part of the original object. Alternatively as this was surely a deliberate event, it is no stretch to have the object blasted internally just before impact by atomics. This would spread out the application of the impact’s shock.

It has been observed that the remains of mammoths killed by the event contain micro beads of metal that needed to arrive at very high speed. I suspect that supports an air blast of vaporized metal from the incoming meteor. We already know that the forests of North America were flash roasted with little if any actual fires afterward. Had there been fires, the charcoal would have been burned out.

The heat wave must have been some thousands of degrees for it to blanket North America. That meant that nothing could survive in its path.

The bulk of the incoming impact energy still was absorbed by the ice and crust generating an additional explosive event that saw ice and debris hurled into the atmosphere and landing throughout the Northeast. The lighter ice traveled furthest and gave us the structures found in the Carolinas.

We now have a picture of a high speed meteor passing over Siberia and impacting close by the western side of Hudson Bay. The high speed vaporized some of the metallic meteor on the way in and the shock wave left by the passage through the atmosphere acted orthogonally to the direction of passage. This shock wave killed the mammoths and all else and was followed up by a dissipating heat wave that peppered the mammoths with micro pellets of metal. This suggests that careful mapping of mammoth remains and the intensity of pellet peppering should allow us to accurately map the passage of the meteor, perhaps even to a few miles.

Upon impact, the bow wave carried on over the ice and struck into eastern North America delivering shock death and a high temperature compression wave that roasted everything it touched. As we mentioned the impact itself blasted huge amounts of ice into the atmosphere as well as rock. If the meteor was blasted apart just before impact it may even be possible that penetration was minimized while actual impact weight was achieved to send the crust into motion.

I am finding this reconstruction becoming more satisfactory as we keep adding data. A high speed impact crashing in to the crust and doing deep penetration is scary. Spreading it out in a large footprint is a lot less scary and much less damaging to the crust itself. In fact it should have the effect of bouncing the crust to liberate the slip plane and to initiate motion. Read my article on viewzone.com about the Pleistocene nonconformity to understand this.

We can now do the impossible safely.

Biochar by Lisa Abend

A recent revelation for me on biochar was the understanding that it was the advent of the steel axe that made slash and burn practical. Prior to that, the Indios would need to maximize the fertility and productivity of any land that was cleared and maintained for their livelihood.

This is a well written recent article on the subject that nicely covers the development to date. My long time readers will note that more and more reports of trials around the globe are popping up with impressive success.
In fact we have yet to see a serious setback anywhere, although some ruined soils are slower to respond to the treatment as could be expected.

This all means that global fertility and productivity of soils in place are going to increase substantially over the next twenty years as we master the methodology.

It is also worth saying that the naysayers are fading and that the scientific explanation that I was one of the first to proffer eighteen months ago is slowly working into the ongoing debate. That the role of the carbon as a solid crystalline acid is to grab and hold nutrients is not obvious yet that is what happens.

My knowledge of that allowed me to immediately accept terra preta, since I had made the conjecture that activated charcoal would be as good as zeolites as a soil additive. A decade earlier I had reviewed work done by Cuba on zeolites and that had led to a review of an article in Scientific American on solid crystalline acids that tied it all together and led to the conjecture.

Doing anything about it was impossible because of the long lead times associated with implementing new agricultural methodology. I was thus delighted to discover the work on terra preta eighteen months ago and am equally delighted to watch the rapid progress it is now making around the globe.

There is nothing like a two thousand year field trial in the middle of the worst soils on earth to run off the regulatory crowd.

I would like to see many more documentaries and I would like to do one in which we simulate production methods using primitive techniques and even minimal farm equipment. I have written a lot on that subject.

World - Carbon: The Biochar Solution

Lisa Abend

On his farm in the hills of west virginia, Josh Frye isn't raising chickens just for meat. He is also raising them for their manure. Through a process that some scientists tout as a solution to climate change, food shortages and the energy crisis, Frye is transforming the waste into a charcoal-like substance called biochar that in the long run could be far better for the world than chicken nuggets. "It might look like this is just a poultry farm," says Frye. "But it's a char farm too."

Burn almost any kind of organic material — corn husks, hazelnut shells, bamboo and, yes, even chicken manure — in an oxygen-depleted process called pyrolysis, and you generate gases and heat that can be used as energy. What remains is a solid — biochar — that sequesters carbon, keeping CO2 out of the atmosphere. In principle, at least, you create energy in a way that is not just carbon neutral, but carbon negative.

And the benefits only begin there. When added to thin and acidic soil of the kind found in much of South America and Africa, char produces higher agricultural yields and lets farmers cut down on costly, petroleum-heavy fertilizers. Subsistence farmers seeking better soil have traditionally relied on slash-and-burn agriculture, which generates greenhouse gases and decimates forests. If instead those farmers slow-smoldered their agricultural waste to produce charcoal — in effect, slash-and-char agriculture — they could fertilize existing plots instead of clearing more land. This in turn would reduce emissions in the atmosphere, and so on in a virtuous circle of environmental renewal.

Could it really be that simple? It appears to have been for the original inhabitants of the Amazon basin. In the 16th century, Spanish explorer Francisco de Orellana wrote home describing the remarkably fertile lands he had discovered there. In the 19th century, American and Canadian geologists uncovered the reason: bands of terra preta (dark earth), which locals continued to cultivate successfully. Research revealed that the original inhabitants of the region had added charred wood and leaves — biochar — to their lands.

Centuries later, it was still there, enriching the soil. "You couldn't help but notice it. There would be all this poor, grayish soil, and then, right next to it, a tract of black that was several meters deep," says Johannes Lehmann, a soil scientist who worked in Manaus, Brazil, in the late 1990s. After he left the Amazon in 2000 for a job at Cornell University, N.Y., Lehmann started wondering what would happen if farmers today could make their own terra preta. He has found one answer in a field trial in Kenya, where 45 farmers achieved twice the yield in their corn crops with biochar than with conventional fertilizers.

Epidra, a private firm in Athens, Ga., is exploring larger-scale applications, such as pyrolysis systems that can produce both enough energy to power a tractor and a biochar tailored to improve particular soils. "If you're going to grow food, you have to do it responsibly," says Bob Hawkins, Eprida's project manager. "And one way of doing that is to use it to generate sustainable energy." A prototype can turn a ton of ground peanut shells into 600 lb. (270 kg) of biochar, with energy as the bonus.

Biochar's ability to sequester CO2 has given new urgency to such research. "Reducing emissions isn't enough — we have to draw down the carbon stock in the atmosphere," says Tim Flannery, chair of the Copenhagen Climate Council, a consortium of scientists and business leaders linked to next year's United Nations Climate Summit. "And for that, slow pyrolysis biochar is a superior solution to anything else that's been proposed." Cornell's Lehmann is even more emphatic. "If biochar could be massively applied around the globe," he says, "we could end the emissions problem in one to two years."

Not everyone agrees. "Biochar isn't a silver bullet, not by a long shot," says Dominic Woolf, a researcher at Swansea University in Wales. "You have to look at the big picture: pyrolysis itself produces carbon dioxide emissions, and you have to consider that when you try to determine biochar's capacity for sequestration." Lehmann says he welcomes the doubts, and notes that addressing them requires "investors willing to take the risk." Which is where chicken farmer Frye, with his small biochar operation, comes in as one of the few people out there actually making a business of it. With a pyrolysis unit that can create 3-4 tons of biochar a day, he generates enough energy to heat his hen houses; and he sells the char as fertilizer for $600 a ton. For Lehmann, biochar's benefits aren't so much a scientific novelty as a return to basics. "From cave drawings to iron smelting, charcoal has always played an important role in the development of civilization," he says. "Maybe it's about to do it again."

Too Old Tools

On of the great hidden assumptions in archeological research is the idea that new knowledge and skills are acquired slowly and that the transmission of these skills is a slow process. That is a bad idea that comes from having three pieces of evidence spaced hugely in time and then drawing a straight line through them as if it means anything.

In fact useful new ideas will be transmitted throughout a major continent and possibly even between continents in special cases in a time frame of perhaps a single millennia. It really is that quick and is no more than the fact that women are exchanged often and move the information and skills along.

This has been humanities secret weapon from the very beginning. What is discovered at one end of a continent is transmitted willing or otherwise a step at a time every few years even without trade or clan relationships.

Therefore this remarkable idea described in the attached article has to be demonstrated in many other places besides this. What they have is a date anomaly.
The good news is that the archeology crowd will certainly dig deeper and perhaps we will have no more ending a dig just because it reached a supposed final layer. And surely the actual identification of these stones as tools will be challenged.

A new study of sophisticated stone tools found in Ethiopia has led scientists to suggest that modern humans may have evolved more than 80,000 years earlier than previously thought.

Washington, Dec 4 : A new study of sophisticated stone tools found in Ethiopia has led scientists to suggest that modern humans may have evolved more than 80,000 years earlier than previously thought.
The tools were uncovered in the 1970s at the archaeological site of Gademotta, in the Ethiopian Rift Valley.

But, it was not until this year that new dating techniques revealed the tools to be far older than the oldest known Homo sapien bones, which are around 195,000 years old.

According to a report in National Geographic News, using argon-argon dating, a technique that compares different isotopes of the element argon, researchers determined that the volcanic ash layers entombing the tools at Gademotta date back at least 276,000 years.

Many of the tools found are small blades, made using a technique that is thought to require complex cognitive abilities and nimble fingers, according to study co-author and Berkeley Geochronology Center director Paul Renne.

Some archaeologists believe that these tools and similar ones found elsewhere are associated with the emergence of the modern human species, Homo sapien.

"It seems that we were technologically more advanced at an earlier time that we had previously thought," said study co-author Leah Morgan, from the University of California, Berkeley.

Gademotta was an attractive place for people to settle, due to its close proximity to fresh water in Lake Ziway and access to a source of hard, black volcanic glass, known as obsidian.

"Due to its lack of crystalline structure, obsidian glass is one of the best raw materials to use for making tools," Morgan explained.

In many parts of the world, archaeologists see a leap around 300,000 years ago in Stone Age technology from the large and crude hand-axes and picks of the so-called Acheulean period to the more delicate and diverse points and blades of the Middle Stone Age.

At other sites in Ethiopia, such as Herto in the Afar region northeast of Gademotta, the transition does not occur until much later, around 160,000 years ago, according to argon dating.

This variety in dates supports the idea of a gradual transition in technology.

"The new date for Gademotta changes how we think about human evolution, because it shows how much more complicated the situation is than we previously thought," said Laura Basell, an archaeologist at the University of Oxford in the U.K. It is not possible to simply associate specific species with particular technologies and plot them in a line from archaic to modern," she added.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Brave New World

As we all know, the global financial system received a massive shock that has seen global equity shrink by forty percent. This has obviously put even quality debt underwater in terms of liquidity. We are now in a protracted period of restatement of values that will permit lending to consolidate and begin initiating new business.. This must take time.

In the meantime there is a bulge of credit problems moving through the manufacturing and carrying trade that will express itself as a nasty quarterly loss. This will be followed by a strong rebound in the following quarters as trade returns to some semblance of normality. This has and is leading to a lot of short term layoffs that should last for a fairly short time. It is still no fun for those on the receiving end.

Will the core economy recover fully? Of course it will, since it is driven by real needs. I expect it to be very fast since the financial failures have visibly abated. Manufacturing through the auto industry is now working to do a defacto chapter 11. It will be interesting to watch Congress support an automotive recovery plan that must include kicking union ass to be credible. After all, they demanded a plan when their real political interests would have been better served with a blank check. They now get to wear the result.

We are entering one of the greatest economic changes of course in Global history. We will exit the oil economy and transition to the solar economy at a cost of under $1.00 per watt. Everything has come together to support this transition with technologies in place or on the drawing board to make it all happen.

The autocart is coming and right behind it the long range autocart. At the same time, the Eden machine that I described early this week will also arrive providing an economic model for a third of the world’s population who will go to work and reforest the dry lands and deserts creating successful sustainable agriculture.

A third of the globe’s population are now in the middle class, or at least see themselves as such. This will let the rest aboard over the next twenty years.

These two devices with solar energy will completely unleash the Global Economy from its commodity strait jackets. The rest is a modicum of education and a lot of good governance.
This attached article brings us up to date on the condition of the quietly worsening oil supply situation. We have had the wake up price shock. W will soon be talking about rationing just as soon as we lose a couple of millions of barrels production and the lack of elasticity in supply becomes apparent.


Peak Oil's "Black Swan" Event

By Chris Nelder Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

It seems like everyone but me has read Nassim Taleb's book, The Black Swan. The concept of unforeseen, highly unlikely events has wormed its way into nearly every conversation lately. (The title is a reference to the fact that all swans were assumed to be white until black swans were discovered in Australia.)

Aside from the fact that I have a too-long reading list, perhaps I haven't read it because it's something about which I've already thought altogether too much. I seem to be one of those people who are predisposed to look for the outlier events, the exceptions to the rules.

Peak oil is a classic case of a black swan event. Nowhere in our history of modern economic theory or industrial civilization is there such an event, so the past will be no help to us as a guide to the future. Still, we act as though our theories are gospel, and our markets are wise. New and unforeseen events like peak oil are never priced in.


Only the few people with a predilection to look out for such things will see it, at first, while the madd'ing crowd dismisses peak oil as a hoax, and disregards the mountains of science and data with blithe assertions about their faith in the markets and technology. They'd rather believe wacky tall tales from an itinerant preacher who spent a little time in Alaska's oil fields but apparently never learned a thing about oil production than look at the hard data on oil production we do have. And they will continue to do so until precisely the moment at which the whole crowd has seen the proof and knows that it's true; that is, when the peak is well in the rear-view mirror and nobody has any doubt that the End of the Oil Age is upon us, and it's far too late to take effective action.

Only when oil prices blew past $120 this year did analysts like me get a little air time to talk about the science on peak oil and not be simply dismissed as "
peak freaks" with some sort of presumed pathological desire to destroy the economy. And now, with oil prices dragging well below the trendline, our looming supply problem is no longer in focus at all, even as it quietly becomes more urgent. Nothing to see here, people, move along....

Unfortunately, as I discussed in my article last week, when the prices of oil and natural gas are as low as they are now, it no longer pays some companies to continue to produce it. The ones operating at the margin of profitability—the ones working the most difficult and marginal resources, with the highest cost structures—are simply getting priced out, laying down their rigs and cutting back on their expansion plans.

The contraction of new oil and gas development due to low commodity prices and difficulty in obtaining credit is setting us up for an "air pocket" in energy supply. When we hit that air pocket, somewhere around 2010, it will create an especially fearsome spike in oil prices.

A Massive Reality Disconnect

You wouldn't know that from watching the tape, though. Oil and gas, which are part of the very foundation of the real, physical economy, continue to get hammered by traders as if they were no different from any other wacky financial instruments we have invented. As oil finally dropped below $50 and stayed there, the whispers about $20 started going around. Vague fears of a reduced outlook for global oil demand, still not verified by the data, have caused oil prices to overshoot far to the downside.

It's as if traders either don't know, or simply don't care, that oil is already below the production cost in those marginal areas where essentially all of the growth in world oil production must come from (if any). If the chart says it could go back to $20, then they believe it could go back to $20.

Such thinking, confined by conventional wisdom and removed as it is from any sort of real world knowledge of petroleum geology, is not only wrong, it will also prove very costly to those to follow it.

On the other hand, one can go broke trying to tell the market what to think. If the market believes that oil's going to $20, then for a short time at least, it probably will. It doesn't pay to buck the trend.

What does pay is knowing when the turning point is about to happen, before the herd heads in a new direction.

We had one of those turning points at the beginning of 2005, when the decades-long growth trend in conventional crude oil production was finally broken. In 2005, oil hit the bumpy plateau at the top of its bell curve, where it has remained in the range of 74 mbpd. (Natural gas liquids, biofuels, unconventional oil, and other components make up the remainder that bring world "oil" production up to about 86 mbpd.) That's when oil prices sharply departed from their past trends, and shot from about $40/bbl to $147/bbl.

Now we have a situation where oil is trading for under $50/bbl, but we know that the global marginal barrel production cost is about $65, that OPEC is signaling it wants to defend $70-75/bbl, and credible forecasts suggest that $100/bbl is the minimum needed to ensure future supply.

That means we have reached yet another massive disconnect between the trade and the reality. Before long, the pendulum will have to swing back the other way, and will probably overshoot to the high side.

Put another way, the markets are currently pricing the tail risk of peak oil by 2010 at approximately zero. The lack of adequate substitutes is also priced at zero. If somebody wants to help me make a CDS-like instrument, we can price that risk correctly and make a killing. But short of that, a long position in oil doesn't get much more attractively priced than it is right now.

A World Too Complicated
In a
recent interview with PBS, Taleb noted that it only took a tiny bit more demand than there was supply to send prices skyrocketing this year for oil and agricultural commodities. Oil is priced at the margin of supply; the last, most expensive barrel essentially sets the price of the whole lot. That's what we should have been focused on, rather than engaging in a witch hunt for evil speculators.

Few seem to understand the deeply interwoven relationships between oil prices, oil supply, the value of the US dollar, and the health of the banking system and the broader markets. Taleb put it simply: "We live in a world that is way too complicated for our traditional economic structure. It's not as resilient as it used to be; we don't have slack; it's over-optimized."

It's is a point I have repeated often. With just-in-time inventory practices dominating every supply chain and every industry, an interruption in the flow of oil can have drastic consequences within mere days. Events like hurricane Katrina foreshadow what can happen: Power plants shut down, trucks stop rolling, shelves and tanks go empty. Much of our infrastructure is extremely vulnerable to energy interruptions, but that isn't priced in either.

What we build—or don't build—in energy has indirect but enormously important impacts on the financial markets. Without energy, we can't have economic growth. The feedback loop also runs the other direction: without a robust economy, we can't invest in the future of energy.

Monetary policy also has a huge but delayed effect on energy prices, and in time, energy prices feed back into monetary policy. It seems inevitable that the massive creation of money in response to the current credit crisis will eventually result in oil prices spiking again.

Only the next time that happens, totally contrary to conventional market wisdom and the very history of oil production, oil producers will not be able to increase production even with prices again at all-time highs. Simple depletion of mature fields, declining resource quality and quantity, an uncertain financial outlook, skyrocketing project costs, geopolitical tensions and the host of other factors I have documented in these pages will bring us to the peak of oil production sooner than our models projected.

Black swan events are far more common that we might think. The rapid unwinding of the enormous leverage in the financial markets this year was another black swan. The models never priced in everybody being on the same side of the trade in credit default swaps and CDOs, and they never imagined the sudden crash of the markets or the swath of destruction it would carve. History was no help in guiding us through the current crisis.

We also suffer from simple myopia. By focusing on the financial markets without seeing their connection to everything else, we have truly missed the point, which is that energy is the real economy, and money is merely an artificial representation of it. Consequently, twiddling with interest rates, and other measures that don't produce more energy or decrease demand for it, ultimately don't cure our problems at all.

Somehow, we have to start making our decisions on energy policy and the economy on a much longer time horizon, and with a much broader view of how all the parts fit together. It takes decades to make any significant changes in energy infrastructure, like replacing a significant portion of the vehicle fleet, or building electrified rail, or a long-distance transmission grid, or renewable energy systems.

Instead of focusing all our attention on how we might try to play the oil game into overtime, we need to start thinking about how we're going to cope with living on less than half our current energy budget by 2050.

If you only watch the rear-view mirror when driving, you're going to wreck. Yet that is exactly what we're doing with our energy supply planning, and exactly what the Street is doing with pricing future energy supply. It's time to put both eyes squarely on the road ahead, and watch out for that hairpin curve in 2010.
Until next time,