Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Aproaching panic over oil and gas.

As a long time student of markets, one sometimes develops a good sense of timing. The decline in the US dollar is inflating the value of non US assets at the same time US assets are retrenching. Since most large corporations are actually hugely diversified offshore, this is very bullish for stocks which are quietly advancing.

More importantly, industry has readjusted to the new price regime for oil and gas and certainly can do so again, particularly with the world awash in investment capital.

The stage is now set for a shift in oil prices to the $100 per barrel level with a possible brief high of $140.00. Gas will recover to its high of around $13.00 and will possible hit $20.00.

And that means folks that the automotive industry is in for a huge restructuring. And the majority of people will be sharply downsizing their automotive habit. This pressure will be maintained until the transportation industry figures out how to do without the use of oil.

The squeeze is on!

It is no longer possible to increase oil production fast enough to keep pace with expected demand, and the only fix is to price marginal uses of oil right out of the market. And someone is about to realize that the most marginal use of oil is for private road transportation. We can expect rationing like the second world war.

No comments: