This is
actually quite useful. He has identified
a very small time zone in which the combined tidal deformation maximizes and
allows large quakes to be triggered..
This becomes important in serious Earthquake country simply be cause it
can be almanaced and even properly prepared for even if we merely establish
these as days for training drills.
Everyone
wants at least this much warning. For
the citizen it becomes a good time to spend in the park. That is a small price to pay for the many false alarms for every actual
event.
What
this is telling us though is that survivable earthquakes are much more random
but are still survivable, while the dangerous ones need to be triggered by the
tidal surge. That is hugely valuable
information to have on hand.
David
Nabhan claims there is a pattern as to when earthquakes occur and that they can be predicted
Quakes
happen during either a full or new moon - and within three hours of dawn or
dusk
Earthquake
prediction has been almost a taboo field of study for the United States
Geological Survey and say such findings
are nonsense
PUBLISHED: 16:06
GMT, 1 June 2014
For decades,
scientists have tried to perfect methods and analyze data in a bid to predict
earthquakes before they happen and potentially save hundreds of thousands of
lives.
However, an
author living in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania claims the answers are in plain sight
and David Nabhan has now written a book about
his remarkable findings.
Mr Nabhan, a
former science teacher from California, became interested in earthquakes.
He was in
charge of the emergency preparedness plan at the school where he worked.
he has found
the key to accurately predicting when an earthquake will strike and has
suggested there is a pattern between them
He says
he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.
'I realized
this sort of conscience doesn’t happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes
during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast,' he said.
'All six
great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the
30s, all of them, dawn or dusk quakes', he told CBS Pittsburgh.
Mr Nabhan
says that it is the 'conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides,' that
causes the quakes.
'Just
imagine the muscle required to move our oceans around every day. Our fractured
fault lines are not immune to this power,' he said.
The
prevailing view has placed seismic forecasting in the realm of near
impossibility, but Mr Nabhan insists that a number of facts infer quite the
opposite.
His book presents a
persuasive and open-minded inquiry into compelling clues and data that have
been downplayed or ignored for almost two centuries, connecting hundreds of
scientific studies with a stunning series of historic seismic events on the US
West coast during the 20th century.
Remarkable
evidence gives a thought-provoking overview of how this topic has remained in
scientific limbo for so many centuries, culminating in a list of hours-long
higher probability windows for seismicity into the future.
Mr Nabhan
lists the plain spoken reasons how and why it should be realized that it is
plausible, with some degree of accuracy, to forecast the next ground-shaking
catastrophe.
Mr Nabhan
says that there has never been a new idea in science that wasn’t accepted
without a fight and claims the next earthquake will happen on July 12 and
September 9, between 4:45 to 7:55 a.m. or p.m.
In his book,
Mr Nabhan lists every tremor powerful enough to have caused fatalities within a
70 mile radius of Los Angeles' city center, struck Southern California between
1933 and 1994.
He states
that every one of them occurred either within a tight 3 hour window at dawn or
a corresponding time interval at
dusk.
Two
thirds of those events also took place not only either at dawn or dusk, but
within 36 hours of the precise instant of new or full moon phases.
+6
Pattern: Two
thirds of recent earthquake events took place not only either at dawn or dusk,
but within 36 hours of the new or full moon phases
+6
The great
quakes on the U.S. West Coast north of Southern California also fit this historic
pattern.
The Great
San Francisco Earthquake (1906) clocked in at 5:12 AM; Loma Prieta (1989)
struck almost precisely 12 hours later: 5:04 PM.
Anchorage
was destroyed on Good Friday, 1964 at 5:36 PM--47 minutes away from the exact
moment when the Moon entered the greatest extent of it's fullness.
The last Big
One on the Southern San Andreas (1857) hit Fort Tejon in the early
morning.
The May 2,
1996 magnitude 5.4 Seattle earthquake, the largest in that city’s history since
1965, rocked the Puget Sound area no more than 9 minutes outside the time and
date forecasted in David Nabhan’s first book.
Mr Nabhan
suggests there is fairly solid evidence to support the hypothesis that solar
and lunar tides working in tandem might actually have a hand in at least
helping to trigger tremors on the West Coast.
However,
U.S. Geological Survey
seismologist
Lucy Jones is more wary about predicting such earthquakes.
seismologist
Lucy Jones is more wary about predicting such earthquakes.
'There’s a
very slight correlation. Not enough to predict any earthquake out of it,' she
told CBS Los Angeles said.
'People try
to make patterns out of anything that scares them. We haven’t found anything
that looks different before a big earthquake than other times.
We get
enough people sending us predictions. The slug trail lady who used to go out in
her driveway and map out the slug trails in the morning and use that to predict
where the next earthquake was going to happen.'
Asked about
earthquake weather, Jones said, 'The reality is earthquakes happen 5 to 10
miles deep in the earth and surface weather doesn’t affect anything at that
depth.'
Asked what
causes a quake to start and stop, she said, 'I don’t know. We have figured out
that earthquakes are happening at much lower stresses, and now we’re trying to
understand the mechanisms that let them happen.'
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