Of course, the
Chinese military has the mission of neutralizing western Military
dominance. This includes a vast amount
of disinformation and the current spate of small challenges on small
territorial issues in order to perhaps settle borders. I do not thinking that it is working too well
and is mostly encouraged by a pacifist President.
What has
happened is that the informal border state alliance has been reinvigorated and
we will see pushback in which the Border States will be quite able to drive a
fair bargain. That was not particularly
smart and only excusable in terms of internal politics.
The military
itself cannot be seen as a creditable threat to anyone. This is particularly true on their borders
were the military of the Border States are clearly reliable. Thus press releases aside, an actual shooting
war must be ruled out. What China does
have is a huge educated middle class that owes nothing to the military and has
no intention of bungling into a real war.
The military has
the world’s simplest Strategic position.
They are politically united, geographically compact and demographically
huge. No border State represents a real
threat because of the population advantage which ensures absorption. Their real strategic border is actually the
Sea and the short land borders of Vietnam and Korea. The remaining land borders ensure that any
attempt will entail a massive investment in infrastructure and you are welcome
to go for it boys.
All China really
needs is an army able to stop either Border State at any one time and to do
nothing that ever encourages them to act in concert. That compact army needs to be good and needs
fighting experience in concert with western adventures in the Islamic world.
The more serious
problem has been the spying which has damaged corporate interests
everywhere. Pushback on all that has
begun and will succeed.
Beware
the ‘Little White Rabbit’ of China’s Military
Last Updated: May 15,
2014 2:42 pm
General Liu Yuan (Left),
political commissar of the General Logistics Department of China's military,
leaves the Great Hall of the People on March 4 in Beijing. The Chinese regime
employs many tools of deception to advance its military goals. (Feng Li/Getty
Images)
A call to tighten military
secrecy was issued by China’s Central Military Commission late last month. The
People’s Liberation Army Daily quoted the official document, saying its
guidelines on secrecy are to help the Chinese military fight and win wars.
The document was
accompanied by reports in state-run Chinese news services on the value of
secrecy. All of this came on the heels of U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s
visit to China in early April, where he promised Chinese leaders an increased
openness and transparency on U.S. cyberoperations, expecting them to return the
favor.
The issues of secrecy in
the Chinese military is regularly cited as a prime concern in congressional
defense reports and U.S. military reports. China’s defense budget increased
12.2 percent this year to $132 billion, following a pattern of similar
increases over the last two decades. The Pentagon, however, believes China’s
defense budget is much higher, estimating in 2012 it was up to double the
reported amount.
There are many experts who
question the threat presented by what China shows the world of its military—one
of Soviet-era ships and planes, a slow emergence of new technology, and a
military and communication structure with doubtful reliability.
What is often missing from
the discussion, however, is the military China does not show the world — one of
hackers, trump cards, spies, and deception.
Inside China, people refer
to China’s ruling regime as the “little white rabbit.” The term is often
preceded by another word, “black belly.” It refers to someone who smiles and
seems friendly on the surface, but whose heart and mind are filled with vicious
schemes.
No analogy could be more
accurate. China’s military strategy is not based on strength. It’s based on
deception—and the means of deception are the true threat of China’s military.
An Unconventional War
On May 12, China tested one
of its anti-satellite weapons, a Dong Ning-2 anti-satellite missile. The
Chinese Academy of Sciences said the missile launch was for a scientific
mission.
Anti-satellite weapons are
part of what China calls its “trump card” or “assassin’s mace” weapons. These
are systems that would allow the Chinese military to disable certain parts of
the U.S. military that it cannot fight.
Satellites are a primary
target for these systems, since the strength of the U.S. military is heavily
derived from satellites—whether for communications or GPS. Ashley Tellis, senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, summed up the
issue well during a Jan. 28 congressional hearing.
Tellis said, “Chinese
military planners are deeply focused on neutralizing U.S. space capabilities
because of their belief that such neutralization is essential to whittle down
dominance on which the U.S. military depends on for its success.”
China’s shadowy weapons
don’t end there either. They include cyberattacks, high-powered microwave
radiation, and electromagnetic pulse warheads. A declassified yet heavily
redacted report on China’s trump card and assassin’s mace weapons, released in
September 2010 from the U.S. National Ground Intelligence Center, said China
could use the weapons as “a surprise measure” against Taiwan or the United
States.
“These modern trump card
and assassin’s mace weapons will permit China’s low-technology forces to
prevail over U.S. high-technology forces in a localized conflict,” states the
document.
In addition to physical
weapons, China also employs other military tactics that are even more fitting
to its “black belly little white rabbit” persona.
A report made public in
April, yet released to the Pentagon a year prior, explains that China is using
a military strategy of deception it calls the Three Warfares to give it an edge
in current territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
The Three Warfares, the
report states, consist of the manipulation of media, manipulation of
international law, and a campaign of psychological warfare. It states China
is using this strategy in an attempt to undermine U.S. influence in other
countries.
Then of course, there are
China’s networks of spies, including sleeper agents, handlers, and a large
network of informants. China’s frequent use of cyberespionage also fits into
this structure.
Chen Yonglin, a former
Chinese diplomat in Australia, said in 2005 that China had 1,000 spies in
Australia. The full scale of Chinese espionage, however, remains unknown.
In peacetime—from what we
see—Chinese spies are regularly caught stealing intellectual property to
advance China’s economy. In wartime, this role would likely change.
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