That Trade War

 

That Trade War

Saying nothing about our trade war is obviously impossible. Do understand though that Donald Trump is a neophyte in terms of international trade and assumed way too much when he stumbled into a Trade confrontation with Canada.  This will go down as the greatest miscalculation, if it can be even charactertized as calculation,  in the recent history of the USA .

The aluminium tarrif is actually unimaginable.  The only reason Canada produces all that aluminium is cheap long term surplus hydro power.  That is why the USA produces almost none.  worse this gives Canada free license to move all that aluminium fabrication from the USA into Canada forthwith as quick as possible.  To say nothing about locking in long term supply to the EU.  Gentleman's agreements be damned.

right now all aluminium manufacture must move, employees and all over the border as quick as possible.  we are talking about millions of families migrating from the midwest to Ontario.  This is a real casulty of WAR.

Trumps only true option is to cancel al tariffs forthwith and allow for what he so egregiously disturbed, to settle down.  no good is even now possible.

what he cannot stop is Canada forming up a global extension of Canadian Confederation of the willing to produce a massive trading confederation outside USA involvement.  This will powerfully strengthen such a confederation because it includes NATO and a global Arms industry as well.  Understand we are looking at the whole EU and all past members of the British empire joining such a putative confederation at the least as willing partners in all defense matters.  On the outside looking in will be Russia, the USA and China.

The British empire involved 25% of the worlds population.  A Canadian led association could easily climb to over 35% of the global population if it includes India which is enough to generate a global currency system separate from the USA dollar.

So yes the Pentagon has ample reason to panic.  sixty years of USA hegomony has evaportated and what is emerging is a new power base built on trade and not treating the USA as a priority customer.  China may be amused, but they are also looking down the barrel of a military superppower quite able to place 1,000,000 indian troops and 1,000,000 NATO troops into Taiwan any time it is necessary.  all without talking to Washington.

Understand internatioonal trade is all about ships,  Those ships are funded for twenty plus years against long term supply contracts.  It is incredably hard to break into this as a new supllier and a tarif disrtupts it all.  

Suddenly Canada has been gifted with a generational opportunity to switch out USA suppliers from long term contracts.  Thus the howls over wheat, soybeans and milk heading for Mexico even.  it turns out USA milk is around the Great Lakes and Ontario is right there.  Bad move Donald..  Long established trade flows benefiting USA farmers and actually locking out Canadian farmers have just been thrown open.

Trump may well not survive this blunder.

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