How likely is it that WWI would have started without the assassination of Franz Ferdinand?

So just why is this not part of the historical narrative and why have i never heard of it?  The hard evidence cited is defensive positioning long ahead of hostilities.  Rather cautionary rather than indicative of a plan.

every allied apologist since and during WWI has been trying to affix blame on Germany.  If this were actually real, it would have been shouted from the rooftops.

Germany had no national interest except defense from famously hostile neighbors.  We were a long ways from ideas of peaceful coexistence of today.

The French had every interest in putting this tale about and likely falsified it all because they could..

If it has not been subjected to historical research, then it is because it is a known fraud.  just saying.

How likely is it that WWI would have started without the assassination of Franz Ferdinand?

Thierry Etienne Joseph Rotty ·
Former Central Planning at NATO

100% certain.

The German overall war plan, confiscated by the French in 1919 literally stated that war should start no later than September 1914.

Germany’s war preparations such as moving troops to the Belgian border and storing extra ammunition on the Franco-Belgian and Russian borders began months before the assassination.

The Imperial German Army of 1914 was far better prepared for a winter war than the Russians.

France was to be defeated in exactly 42 days after which the troops would have been moved to the East to take on Russia.

With a war starting in September 1914 (at the latest), the solid frozen ground would facilitate German movements by the tie they had moved their troops to the Eastern Front.

It was hoped to being Russia to its knees by late 1914 or early 1915 which would have given the Germans a couple of months to consolidate their positions and bring forward extra supplies before the thaw would turn Russia into one big mud bath.

So we know for a fact that Germany would have gone to war in 1914. The assassination was just a convenient excuse. if this hadn’t taken place, the Germans would have found another excuse or faked an incident.

This war plan is one of the reasons why France wanted to include the famous “guilt clause” in the Versailles Treaty.

Alas, these documents and the impounded diplomatic correspondence are generally unknown to the public. They were impounded by the French in 1919 an published i three leather-bound volumes in 1921. By then, general interest in the war had completely faded.