Add
in self driving cars which are soon to be with us and yes, it will
become practical to even eliminate some high volume corridors.
Add
in continuing densification around mass transit routes and we can
absorb a much larger population who generally avoids road travel
except for mission specific tasks. All this is getting the car off
the road in already dense urban environments.
With
the self-driving car, I expect a transition to a simple usage model
in which a car, even self-owned does not park itself but becomes part
of the local transit pool for a fee. The car actually self optimizes
its output and value on a continuing basis.
Thus
a user merely presses a button and steps to the curb and a vehicle
pulls up to take him to his destination inside the zone.
All
this means no need to accommodate a passive pool of idle parking or a
significant pool of overbuilt roadways.
Smart
roads are making new mass transit and expressways obsolete
Lawrence
Solomon | 13/09/05 |
Last Updated: 13/09/06 9:59 AM ET
Satellite
technology tracks traffic along all routes, changing rates on the fly
The
way to relieve traffic congestion, say many on the right, is to build
more roads. Not so, say many on the left. Far better to build more
public transit to lure people out of their cars, freeing up road
space.
Either
solution is partial at best and either can be ruinously expensive, as
seen in Boston’s Big Dig ($24-billion and counting) and Toronto’s
Metrolinx (estimated at $50-billion). And neither is necessary. As
Singapore and others have shown, software can turn our now-clogged
roads into smart roads, creating effective new road capacity that
eliminates the need for either major new highways or mass transit.
The
gold standard in urban transportation is the city-state of Singapore,
a densely populated island where most commute to work via one of the
world’s most advanced, most intensively used, most comprehensive
and most efficient public transit system. Because the island had
little land to dedicate to roads, starting in 1998 it pioneered an
electronic road toll system that charged high amounts in heavily
trafficked areas during rush hour to encourage drivers to shift their
schedules to less congested periods.
While
this approach was miles ahead of other cities in allaying congestion
– the goal of keeping traffic moving at 45 mph or better on
expressways and 20 mph on city streets has been generally met — it
nevertheless left much to be desired. Because the prices in
particular zones were adjusted only every six months, new congestion
that materialized would persist until new rates could be set. The
delayed reactions couldn’t deal with congestion hot spots at all.
And the infrastructure used — overhead gantries that deducted money
from smartcards as cars drove through – became eyesores and
expensive as ever more gantries were built in attempts to keep up
with and fine tune Singapore’s growing traffic.
To
solve these problems, Singapore’s traffic planners decided to
switch to the next generation of tolling – satellite technology
that tracks traffic along all routes, raising rates on the fly along
roads whose traffic was moving too slowly to nudge drivers onto less
congested routes, and lowering rates on the fly when roads could
accommodate more cars without creating congestion.
The
city started by having four companies compete against each other in
an 18-month trial, each in a different area of the city, to see
whether satellite technology worked as well in practice as it did in
theory. That trial proved successful and the government has now begun
implementation. Once the satellite-based system is in place, drivers
will be paying more than they do now during the height of rush hour,
less when roads aren’t heavily congested, and about the same
overall.
The
same technique – called dynamic pricing – is increasingly coming
into use in some highways in the U.S., successfully ending
congestion. Singapore is applying the dynamic pricing concept to all
roads, with the same expected result – an end to congestion.
Traffic planners will be able to decide what speeds they want to
maintain along what routes and, by tweaking prices up and down
dynamically as needed, they will be able to keep traffic flowing
smoothly continually. Instead of building more roads, the same roads
will be handling more throughput.
Other
road innovations in another technologically savvy country – Israel
– will stretch road capacity further still. A major contributor to
urban congestion in downtown cores stems from drivers circling city
blocks looking for parking spots – that’s what 30% of the cars
are typically doing, according to an average of various studies. Tel
Aviv drivers now have relief, thanks to a company called Parko that
predicts when parking spots will free up near their destination. A
growing number of participants in Parko – they already represent
10% of Tel Aviv drivers – let Parko tap into the location software
in their smartphones, letting Parko understand, for example, where
they’ve parked and how long it takes them to walk from their car to
their office. When they leave their office and start walking to their
car, Parko will then let a driver who will soon be arriving in the
vicinity know when the spot will become available.
Another
Israeli innovation – Pink Park – rents out spare parking spots
that small businesses may have by the hour, providing the businesses
with extra income while further relieving pressure for street
parking. Eventually all these technologies along with other road
usage innovations will be seamlessly integrated, allowing drivers to
travel from point A to point B, confident not only that they will
face no traffic snarl-ups along the route but also that they will
have a convenient parking spot waiting for them at journey’s end.
Singapore’s system, in fact, anticipates incorporating street
parking.
These
innovations will soon shelve the major new roads and the major new
transit schemes that our traffic planners have in the works. No need
for governments to expropriate businesses for road widenings and no
need for them to expropriate farms for new freeways. No need for
drivers to endure years of detours and other disruptions while the
new infrastructure is built. No sucker punches to the taxpayer, as
projects come in years late and billions of dollars over budget. And
no need to put up with more congestion!
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