Showing posts with label Indonesia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indonesia. Show all posts

Monday, August 31, 2009

Deforestration Abates


This is a welcome bit of information to act as an anecdote to the more hysterical reports of past years. In a way it is unsurprising. Central governments need their tax revenue and illegal cutting is all about operating out of government oversight and taxation. Obviously, if the local government cannot collect taxes on these logs and new fields, then there is slim chance they can hope to regulate the practice.

Thus the economic necessity of central governments is doing what all the laws and police can never quite do.

Slash and burn will continue until the farmers are encouraged to adopt biochar and are given homestead rights on that basis. At which point it will disappear in a hurry.

It was my lot to once visit a site in the jungles of Borneo a couple of decades ago. It was situated on a small river with a good flow a few miles inland. I saw a steady stream of logs tied up in small booms of perhaps several logs each with a logger riding each boom down to the sea. In the river mouth, there was a tramp ship collecting these logs and loading them. At best the local constabulary had speed boats thirty miles away and easier fish to fry. I got the distinct impression that no one asked too many questions.

I am sure today that the mill exists and that the tramp is no longer collecting logs and who ever comes down that river may even be paying taxes.

INTERVIEW-Global forest destruction seen overestimated
Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:46pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN2165866

By Stuart Grudgings

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The amount of carbon emissions caused by world forest destruction is likely far less than the 20 percent figure being widely used before global climate talks in December, said the head of the Brazilian institute that measures Amazon deforestation.

Gilberto Camara, the director of Brazil's respected National Institute for Space Research, said the 20 percent tally was based on poor science but that rich countries had no interest in questioning it because the number put more pressure on developing countries to stem greenhouse gases.

"I'm not in favor of conspiracy theories," Camara told Reuters in a telephone interview on Friday.

"But I should only state that the two people who like these figures are developed nations, who would like to overstress the contribution of developing nations to global carbon, and of course environmentalists."
A lower estimate for carbon emissions from deforestation would have an impact on the Copenhagen talks, where preserving forests is a top item on the agenda.

The summit will negotiate a follow-up to the Kyoto climate change treaty that could introduce forest credit trade to cut developing nation deforestation.

Camara, who stressed that he thought Brazil's deforestation rates remain too high, said recent calculations by his institute using detailed satellite data showed clearing of the world's biggest forest accounted for about 2.5 percent of annual global carbon emissions.

Given that the Amazon accounts for about a quarter of deforestation globally, a figure of about 10 percent for total emissions caused by forest destruction is likely to be more accurate, Camara said.

The 20 percent figure used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was based on calculations from sampling of forests by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), he said.

The FAO method came up with an average annual figure of 31,000 sq km (12,000 sq miles) deforested in the Amazon from 2000-2005. But Brazil's method of using satellite images to measure deforestation "pixel by pixel" was far more accurate and showed a figure of 21,500 sq km for the period, Camara said.

DEFORESTATION HEADING LOWER

For 2005-2009, the FAO estimate was double the correct figure, Camara said.

"The FAO grossly overestimated deforestation in Brazil and there are papers that show that such overestimation is also true for many other countries, including of course Indonesia."

Indonesia is among the world's biggest deforesters.

Camara said he was skeptical of any deal involving Brazil being rewarded for "avoided deforestation" because the average rate of destruction remained far too high.

"Deforestation in 2004 was 27,000 sq km and let's say in 2009 it is 10,000 sq km. It is not fair to say that we avoided 17,000 sq km of deforestation in as much as our current level is still too much, and 90 percent of that is illegal," he said.

"The concept of avoided deforestation is a weak concept. It would not stand up to scrutiny."Deforestation of the Amazon, which makes Brazil one of the biggest global carbon emitters, is on course to fall sharply in the August-to-July annual period in which it is measured.
Satellite data shows that new, large deforested areas are about half the area they were in the previous year, when total deforestation was 12,000 sq km.

"We are hopeful that deforestation will go down. In areas where deforestation had been high in previous years, like Mato Grosso and Rondonia state, it is relatively under control," Camara said.

The government has taken steps to crack down on illegal deforestation over the past year. Falling deforestation may also be due to the fall in commodity prices over the past year, reducing the incentive for farmers and ranchers to clear land. (Editing by John O'Callaghan)

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Indo Negroid Origins


The Indo negroid populations of southern India is racially derived from Africa and as Prithvi shows in his book ’19.000 years of world history’ their language is also a derivative of the associated African language group. In fact it has been accepted that the association is inescapable but until now, there was lacking a convincing explanation as to how this might have come about in the deep antiquity necessary to support this theory and the remarkable depth of miscegenation of these communities.

Our inspection of the extent of the Maldives island chain and the subsea coral island arc associated with Madagascar dispels these concerns. Populations from the mainland of Africa, who were not dominantly Bantu 12,000 years ago, plausibly crossed open seas of a couple of hundred miles to reach Madagascar and penetrated the now sunken Madagascar island arc. This arc is presently a wide coral structure that is fifty miles across or more for most of its length and is itself the length of Madagascar.

Two things are proven here. These populations had the capacity to go to sea and travel a couple of hundred miles, not unlike the Stone Age Indian populations of the North West of the Americas. This allowed them to occupy Madagascar and what we can call the Madagascar archipelago.

The second thing demonstrated is that the maximum distance between the two archipelagos in the Pleistocene was around 500 miles. This was possibly a challenge for traffic moving eastward but certainly not impossible and certainly a survivable accident in the face of trade winds blowing you home.

The attached item makes clear though that present populations are derived from Borneo and Africa in equal numbers. This loudly suggests that the Indonesian sailors arrived by island hopping and then provided transport for mainland populations. However, our evidence so far makes this all fairly recent although once again I caution that no one is digging deep yet.

It is certainly possible for canoe based sailors to have traveled along the coast of the Bay of Bengal and reach Sri Lanka and then follow the Maldives island arc to its southern end before striking out for the five hundred mile trip to Madagascar and onto the African coast. And I think that seasonal wind shifts made the return trip quite possible also. The difficult part would be getting back to the Maldives archipelago

In fact, the presence of a fifty percent Indonesian stock in Madagascar strongly supports just that happening over the past four millennia at least. Earlier populations would not have maintained a significant population density and would have been readily absorbed by a technically superior population able to expand by agriculture.

I also note that these populations likely were dependent on the fishery and maintained a close proximity to the sea which may explain the lack of early evidence.

We can conclude that prior to the Pleistocene nonconformity lower sea levels opened up a southern sea route navigable with limited equipment equivalent to inshore fishing boats that ran between Indonesia, India and on to Africa. So though such a far flung ocean littoral is apparently impractical today, it was not then and it explains the advent of Indo Negroid populations in India. That it reemerged later with the advent of superior shipping is not surprising since folk histories would have kept it alive.

Again, the error of not pushing back dates aggressively is been made. It takes a long time to populate a region such as Madagascar and Southern India and any evidence acquired is just that of the population reaching optimum. Recall almost all evidence of the occupation of the USA would naturally be dated from the twentieth century with a bit from the nineteenth century. The earlier episodes would be largely missing.

Thus existing evidence in Madagascar from four thousand years ago is actually evidence of human presence preceding that evidence by thousands of years. The extant evidence likely reflects the emergence of bantu agricultural practice overlaying a hunter gatherer society.

One other comment needs to be made. These trips were often one way and were conducted primarily by men. These inevitably took on local wives and immediately created a natural fifty - fifty hybrid that has remained extant to this day in both Madagascar and plausibly in Southern India. We are more used to miscegenation been a minor part of the colonizing process while in this case it was the whole story.

In any case, the possibilities for population mixing along the Indian Ocean littoral was far more practical before the full impact of post Pleistocene flooding was felt and clearly happened from the genetic record. Alternative attempts to explain racial signatures via transmigration through the Middle East are outright implausible.



Studies prove people of Madagascar came from Borneo and Africa




Studies released earlier this year found the people of Madagascar have origins in Borneo and East Africa.
Half of the genetic lineages of human inhabitants of Madagascar come from 4500 miles away in Borneo, while the other half derive from East Africa, according to a study published in May by a UK team.

The island of Madagascar, the largest in the Indian Ocean, lies some 250 miles (400 km) from Africa and 4000 miles (6400 km) from Indonesia. Its isolation means that most of its mammals, half of its birds, and most of its plants exist nowhere else on earth. The new findings, published in the American Journal of Human Genetics, show that the human inhabitants of Madagascar are similarly unique - amazingly, half of their genetic lineages derive from settlers from the region of Borneo, with the other half from East Africa. Archaeological evidence suggests that this settlement was as recent as 1500 years ago - about the time the Saxons invaded Britain.


"The origins of the language spoken in Madagascar, Malagasy, suggested Indonesian connections, because its closest relative is the Maanyan language, spoken in southern Borneo," said Dr Matthew Hurles, of the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute. "For the first time, we have been able to assign every genetic lineage in the Malagasy population to a likely geographic origin with a high degree of confidence."


"Malagasy peoples are a roughly 50:50 mix of two ancestral groups: Indonesians and East Africans. It is important to realise that these lineages have intermingled over intervening centuries since settlement, so modern Malagasy have ancestry in both Indonesia and Africa."


The team, from Cambridge, Oxford and Leicester, used two types of DNA marker to study DNA diversity: Y chromosomes, inherited only through males, and mitochondrial DNA, inherited only through females. They tested how similar the Malagasy were to populations around the Indian Ocean. The set of non-African Y chromosomes found in the Malagasy was much more similar to the set of lineages found in Borneo than in any other population, which demonstrates striking agreement between the genetic and linguistic evidence. Similarly, a 'Centre of Gravity' was estimated for every mitochondrial DNA to suggest a likely geographical origin for each. This entails calculating a geographical average of the locations of the best matches within a large database of mitochondrial lineages from around the world.


"The Centres of Gravity fell in the islands of southeast Asia or in sub-Saharan Africa," explained Dr Peter Forster, from the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, one of the co-authors. "The evidence from these two independent bits of DNA supports the linguistic evidence in suggesting that a migrating population made their way 4500 miles across the Indian Ocean from Borneo."

The striking mix suggests that there was substantial migration of people from southeast Asia about 2000-1500 years ago - a mirror image of the migrations from that region into the Pacific, to Micronesia and Polynesia, that had occurred about 1000 years earlier. However, unlike the privations suffered by those eastward travellers, the data suggests the early Malagasy population survived the voyage well, because more genetic variation is found in them than is found in the islands of Polynesia. 'Bottlenecks' in evolutionary history, where the population is dramatically reduced in number, are a common cause of reduced genetic variation.


Even though the Africa coast is only one-twentieth of the distance to Indonesia, it appears that migrations from Africa may have been more limited, as less of the diversity seen in the source population has survived in Madagascar.


But why, if the population is a 50:50 mix, is the language almost exclusively derived from Indonesia?


"It is a very interesting question, for which we have as yet no certain answer, as to how the African contribution to Malagasy culture, evident in biology and in aspects of economic and material culture, was so largely erased in the realm of language," commented Professor Robert Dewar, of The McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge. "This research highlights the differing, and complementary, contributions of biology and linguistics to the understanding of prehistory."


The population structure in Madagascar is a fascinating snapshot of human history and a testament to the remarkable abilities of early populations to undertake migrations across vast reaches of ocean. It may also be important today for cutting edge medical science.


"There has recently been dramatic progress in the development of experimental and statistical methods appropriate for gene mapping in admixed populations," said David Goldstein, Wolfson Professor of Genetics, University College London. "To succeed, however, these methods depend on populations with well defined historical admixtures. This work shows provides compelling evidence that the Malagasy are such a population, and again shows the value of careful study of human population structure."


Our human history is a rich mix of peoples and their movement, of success and failure. Madagascar holds an enriching tale of the ability of humans to survive and to reach new lands.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Collision Earth

I recently came across this interesting article that tackles a number of anomalies in the climatic record. The 1159 BCE event we have already associated with a volcanic event Hekla and the 12900 BCE impact event in Northern Canada. This article isolates from cultural referents these dates:

7640 BCE, 3195 BCE, 2354 BCE, 1628 BCE, 1159 BCE, 207 BCE, 44 BCE, and 540 CE.

We have Thera to apply to the 1628 BCE event. As a warning the apparent exact nature of this date and the later dates are controversial at the least but are typically associated with carbon dates and an independent Chinese record for 1618 BCE. I have associated 1159 BCE with the inundation of Atlantis and the resulting collapse of their seaborne mercantile civilization. We surmise that the Thera drove the collapse of Minoan civilization and this event was the foundation of the tale of the exodus. The tale itself could well have already been legend at the time of actual historic biblical event and could clarify a two hundred disparity. I have found that these ancient records never fail to include a good story even if the actual linkage is a stretch. And why not? This was their only way to transmit cultural history.

You will have followed my recent pursuit of the possibility that the little ice age was triggered by a major volcanic event in Alaska. It certainly looks promising and explains the reoccurrence of cooling in the Arctic over the past two to three millennia without having to call upon other even less provable sources like solar variation. It is also one of the nastiest places on earth for this type of volcanic activity with no lack of candidates.

To this we now should add cosmic events. We should also get much more serious about their potential for damage. Science has understated and actually misled us all on the potential for damage from this source. Perhaps we need to respect ignorance instead.

Firstly a sea based impact has never been studied. We do not understand the possibilities. All the energy will surely be absorbed by the water, just as all the energy of the stony meteorites is typically absorbed in the atmosphere up to a fairly large size. So although a fair range of small to mid sized objects are packing huge amounts of energy, those two blankets will discharge the energy fairly well.

I add to this the 12900 BCE impact of the Canadian Ice sheet which hurled ice into the Carolinas and likely the Atlantic. It also delivered entrained material into the Ohio Valley recently identified. The bulk of the energy was still absorbed by the crust and surely left a crater now flooded with water. Happy hunting.

To affect climatic temperature, the event has to hit land and sent a vast amount of dust into the atmosphere or itself be a massive source of dust. Tunguska shows us how this could be. That means that a huge scar must exist that would be discernable even today if the event took place in the last 10,000 years.

Recall that the big volcanic events threw twenty to fifty cubic miles of rock into the atmosphere. An asteroid needs to be that large or at least a reasonable fraction thereof to have the same impact. Again the atmosphere will break it up on the way in. The fact is, is that we lack observational evidence to make proper predictions except by analogy.

What this article does bring home is that the energy is out there and has certainly been felt. Whether it applies to this sequence of climatic anomalies is only prospective when we have the alternatives of the Indonesian volcanoes and those of Alaska. And even for the protracted Little Ice Age, I am more inclined to chase volcanoes than a major cosmic event whose effect should have dissipated very quickly, if only because of the lack of chemical aerosols.

I have every reason to think that as our dating of the eruptive periods of all the world’s volcanoes improves so will the correlation with global climate. We only need to remember that an Arctic chill affects the northern portion of the northern hemisphere, while a much larger chill at the equator hits us all.


Collision Earth:

The Threat From Outer Space (2004)

BY JASON JEFFREY

Over a century ago Ignatius Donnelly summed up our precarious existence: We are but vitalized specks filled with a fraction of God’s delegated intelligence, crawling over an egg-shell filled with fire, whirling madly through infinite space, a target for the bombs of the universe.

By bombs Donnelly meant the untold number of asteroids and comets that fill the heavens around us which on perhaps not a few occasions have smashed into Earth itself, and may do so again.

Through revolutionary new techniques in observation, detection and photography, modern astronomers and astrophysicists have now identified two new classes of celestial objects which could pose a real danger to our planet within the foreseeable future, called NEA’s (Near Earth Asteroids) and ECC’s (Earth-Crossing Comets).

On September 29, asteroid “4179 Toutatis” passed within 1.6 million kilometres of Earth. Its approach was the closest in this century of any known asteroid the size of Toutatis, which measured around 4.6 kilometres in length. If it had struck the Earth, we could have faced what scientists have dubbed “a mass extinction event.”

Scientists believe the asteroid poses no risk at least through 2562, when Toutatis will pass within 400,000 kilometers of Earth – but astronomers admit there are forces in the solar system that can alter an asteroid’s orbit and put it on a collision course with Earth.

Earlier this year, on March 31, an asteroid skimmed past the Earth at a distance of just 6500 kilometres above the ground. Object “2004 FU162”, which spans 5-10 metres across, would have burned up as a fireball ending with a smaller explosion, had it ventured into the Earth’s atmosphere. The problem was astronomers did not discover it until after its passing. Scientists have since calculated the asteroid’s orbit was shifted by a whopping 20 degrees because of the Earth’s gravity.

The previous record for the closest asteroid approach to Earth was set on 18 March by an object called “2004 FH” which missed the Earth by about 40,000 kilometres. That was a much larger object, around 30 metres in diameter, but big enough to produce a one-megaton explosion in the atmosphere.

NASA calculates objects in the 100-200 metre range hit Earth about once every 700-1,000 years. Such an object did hit the Earth in 1908, over Tunguska in Siberia.

In the ECC (Earth-Crossing Comet) category, a very serious future candidate for an Earth grazing is comet Finlay, due to pass on October 27, 2060 – perhaps as close as 150,000 kilometres.In 1993, astrophysicist Brian Marsden announced that comet Swift-Tuttle could possibly strike Earth in the 22nd century. It is scheduled to pass the Sun incoming from deep space on July 11, 2126, and on August 14 will come very close to our world. Should the slightest irregularity occur in its long periodic path during the intervening one and a half centuries, it could hit the planet dead-centre, and with a force equivalent to 100 million megatons of TNT.

Over the past few years we have often heard about the discovery of new asteroids and comets. This is the result of NASA’s 25-year survey of the sky to find objects wider than a kilometre that could have a devastating impact if they collided with Earth.

Fortunately, nothing of a dangerous size has been spotted heading our way for at least a century – or so they tell us. According to a US government advisor, secrecy would be the best option if scientists discovered a giant asteroid was on course to collide with Earth.Speaking to a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Geoffrey Sommer, of the Rand Corporation, said:

“If an extinction-type impact is inevitable, then ignorance for the populace is bliss. As a matter of common sense, if you can’t intercept it and you can’t move people out of the way in time, there’s nothing you can do in terms of reducing the costs of the potential impact.”
Deep Impact

For one week in July 1994, astronomers watched a planetary body under attack, when two dozen pieces of the disintegrated comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 plunged into Jupiter with explosive results, equivalent to 40 million megatons of TNT going off in a chain reaction. As several scientists warned, this was Earth’s wake-up call for a similar event to happen to us.

Recent computer simulations reveal that if a comet or asteroid hit the Earth on one side, the seismic waves generated would be transmitted through the planetary interior. By being focused on account of the Earth’s curvature, the waves would meet together at the location directly on the opposite side where the impact took place, and the high stress energy released could disrupt the surface area, causing a tremendous outpouring of volcanic activity.

The air blast resulting from an impact would lead to large-scale and worldwide pressure shock waves oscillating the entire atmosphere and ionosphere, creating winds greater than the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded.

Fragments of the asteroid and earth hurled into space by the impact would rain down all over the planet, setting forest fires. The resulting smoke would further darken the atmosphere, plunging the world into permanent night. The temperature would plummet.

Calculating the amount of dust, water vapour and smoke injected into the sky from a kilometre wide object hitting the Earth, scientists estimate a drop of world temperatures by about 15 degrees Celsius lasting for about 15 days.

By far the worst-case scenario is an asteroid or comet striking one of the world’s deep oceans. Some researchers worry the sudden displacement of such large volumes of water across thousands of kilometres of ocean would affect the axis spin and polar stability of the Earth, like adding an off-balancing weight to a spinning gyroscope. Even more disastrous would be a celestial object furrowed into the ocean at a more oblique angle. In this case the energy of the mass dissipates by pushing a titanic amount of water over a large surface area, creating a tsunami wave so high and large in size as to defy imagination.As a tsunami wave reaches nearer to a coast with a shallower continental shelf, its speed slows down, but its height is increased by a factor of 10 to 40. Thus a deep ocean wave of 100 metres might break ashore with a height of 1,000 to 4,000 metres.

A major earthquake triggered off the coast of Chile in May 1960 generated waves in the deep water of the Pacific travelling a full 150 degrees around the globe, or more than 16,000 kilometres distance, landing ashore in Japan at a height of up to 4.5 metres, and killing over 200 people. Earlier, in 1946, a similar event took place when a tsunami originating in the Aleutians killed a handful of people along the nearby Alaskan shores, yet also went on to take the lives of 150 people in Hawaii 8,000 kilometres away. Computer projections indicate that a 9-metre asteroid impacting the ocean between Australia and New Zealand would produce tsunamis breaking on the southern Japanese coastline at 38 to 50 metres high.

That large asteroids have hit the Pacific before is evident from geological remains on the islands within its perimeter. Deposits of unconsolidated corals have been found almost a thousand feet above the present coasts on Lanai, Hawaii, Oahu, Molokai and Maui, indicating they were washed up to that height by a tremendous wave of water in the distant past. Ordinary tsunamis generated by earthquakes along the Ring of Fire do not produce waves of that magnitude – only a major displacement of ocean waters from an impact event would fit the findings.

The Atlantic Ocean is also in danger. Estimates are an impact anywhere in the Atlantic by an asteroid 365 metres wide would devastate coasts on either side with tsunami waves 60 metres high. Major cities either on the coast or with river, bay or harbor accesses such as New York, Boston, Washington, London, Amsterdam and Copenhagen are in danger of being completely obliterated.

A computer simulation of an asteroid impact tsunami developed by scientists at the University of California shows waves as high as 120 metres sweeping onto the Atlantic Coast of the United States.
The researchers based their simulation on a real asteroid known to be on course for a close encounter with Earth eight centuries from now.

March 16, 2880, is the day the asteroid known as “1950 DA”, a huge rock 1.2 kilometres in diameter, is due to swing so close to Earth it could slam into the Atlantic Ocean at 60,000 kilometres per hour.
“From a geologic perspective, events like this have happened many times in the past. Asteroids the size of 1950 DA have probably struck the Earth about 600 times since the age of the dinosaurs,” warns researcher Steven Ward.

Impact Events Linked to Evolution of Life on Earth

It is known the Earth was pummelled by asteroids, comets and other massive heavenly bodies in the early days of its formation – over 3 billion years ago. But, until recently, most scientists thought this was an event limited to Earth’s distant past. They also believed the ancient celestial pounding eventually gave way to billions of years of gradual, non-catastrophic evolution.

In the 1950s, astronomer Gene Shoemaker sent shock waves through the scientific community by suggesting various craters on our planet (and the Moon) were formed by asteroids or comets, rather than volcanic eruptions, which was what most scientists believed at the time.

There doesn’t appear to be one square kilometre of the lunar surface that is not pockmarked with impact craters. While some craters are undoubtedly very ancient, they also contain within their rims a myriad of newer craters from more recent impacts.

The reason why craters do not remain visible on Earth is due to their swift erosion by rain, snow, and wind, whereas on the Moon they remain for eons until a new projectile strikes the scar zone.

Using the Moon’s potholed surface as a reference point, Shoemaker tried to determine how often celestial objects smashed into the Moon and, by extension, struck the Earth. With the help of modern satellite and aerial surveillance, Shoemaker and other scientists soon identified over 200 impact sites around the planet.

In 1980 scientists Luis and Walter Alvarez claimed they had found evidence of a huge impact event 65 million years ago. This age corresponded with the demise of the dinosaurs at the end of the Cretaceous Period. The evidence included a worldwide layer of clay with high levels of the rare element iridium, usually the signature of an impact.

In 1990, the buried remains of a 180-kilometre-diameter crater were discovered near the town of Chicxulub on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. A crater this size would have been blasted out by a 16-kilometre-wide comet or asteroid colliding with the Earth at some 80,000 kph.

Some scientists now believe this crater as the long sought-after “smoking gun” responsible for the demise of the dinosaurs and more than 70 percent of Earth’s living species 65 million years ago.

In June 2003 Science published a report about a team of scientists who believe a massive object from space smashed into what is now the Moroccan desert 380 million years ago. Dates for the impact coincide with the “Kacak/otomari” extinction, when up to 40% of all animals living in the sea perished. Fossils found in rock layers just above the impact layer suggest many new species appeared after the disaster.

And in November 2003, another team of scientists reported on evidence for a massive asteroid colliding with the Earth 251 million years ago which may have killed 90 per cent of all life.

The study, based on meteorite fragments found in Antarctica, suggests the Permian-Triassic event, perhaps the greatest extinction in the planet’s history, may have been triggered by a mountain-sized space rock that smashed into a southern land mass.

“It appears to us that the two largest mass extinctions in Earth history... were both caused by catastrophic collisions” with asteroids, the researchers say in their study in Science.

The evidence indicates asteroid impacts are the key factors in the development of life on this planet. In wiping out a large proportion of life on the planet periodically, the asteroids have played a more important role in evolutionary development than previously thought.More pertinent is the question of cosmic impacts on the rise and fall of mankind’s ancient civilisations. Is there any evidence backing up the stories of ancient apocalypse and hell fire from the sky that are preserved in mythology and some of the world’s religions?

Collapse of Civilisation

...and the seven judges of hell ... raised their torches, lighting the land with their livid flame. A stupor of despair went up to heaven when the god of the storm turned daylight into darkness, when he smashed the land like a cup.

– An account of the Deluge from the Epic of Gilgamesh, circa 2200 BCE

Biblical stories, apocalyptic visions, ancient art and scientific data all seem to intersect at around 2350 BCE, when one or more catastrophic events wiped out several advanced societies in Europe, Asia and Africa.

Archaeological findings show that in the space of a few centuries, many sophisticated civilisations disappeared. The Old Kingdom in Egypt fell into ruin. The Akkadian culture of Iraq, thought to be the world’s first empire, collapsed.

Around the same time apocalyptic writings appeared. The Epic of Gilgamesh describes the fire, brimstone and flood of possibly real, not mythical, events. Omens predicting the Akkadian collapse preserve a record that “many stars were falling from the sky.” The “Curse of Akkad,” dated to about 2200 BCE, speaks of “flaming potsherds raining from the sky.”

In 1650, the Irish Archbishop James Ussher mapped out the chronology of the Bible – a feat that included stringing together all the “begats” to count generations – and put Noah’s great flood at 2349 BCE.

All coincidence? A number of scientists don’t think so.

Mounting hard evidence collected from tree rings, soil layers and even dust that long ago settled to the ocean floor indicates there were widespread environmental nightmares in the Near East during this period: Abrupt cooling of the climate, sudden floods and surges from the seas, huge earthquakes.

In 1999 geologist Dr. Sharad Master spotted a 3-kilometre-wide crater in southern Iraq after studying satellite images. Scientists now believe this circular depression bears all the hallmarks of an impact crater, one that caused devastating fires and flooding. They are now attempting to date the time of the impact, with some of the main researchers estimating an age of around 6,000 years – placing it in the close vicinity of the sudden decline in Middle East civilisation around 2300 BCE.

Mike Baillie, professor of palaeoecology at Queens University in Belfast and author of Exodus to Arthur: Catastrophic Encounters with Comets, figures it would have taken just a few bad years to destroy societies.

Even a single comet impact large enough to have created the Iraqi crater, “would have caused a mini nuclear winter with failed harvests and famine, bringing down any agriculture based populations which can survive only as long as their stored food reserves,” Baillie says. “So any environmental downturn lasting longer than about three years tends to bring down civilisations.”

Professor Mike Baillie is an authority on dendrochronology, the science of studying tree growth rings. His decades long collaborative effort with many scientists has developed a worldwide record of climate modulated, annual tree growth as recorded in tree growth rings. That effort has produced a reliable timeline from the present back to several thousand years BCE.

Occasionally environmental conditions are so extreme that trees all over the world are affected. Certain of these patterns imply weather conditions leading to local or worldwide catastrophes, including crop failures, famine and flooding.

As described in Exodus to Arthur, the dates linked to extreme events are: 3195 BCE, 2354 BCE, 1628 BCE, 1159 BCE, 207 BCE, 44 BCE, and 540 CE.

The significance of the date 2354 BCE has been noted. The other date to stand out is 540 CE, with the extreme weather events actually starting in 536 CE.

Until recently, historians had little notion dramatic climatic events had occurred. The accounts left by contemporary observers were poorly understood and overshadowed by later historical events. In fact, those later events, it turns out, may have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the weather of the time.

The Praetorian Prefect Magnus Aurelius Cassiodorus Senator, who lived between 490 and 585 CE, wrote a letter documenting the conditions. “All of us are observing, as it were, a blue coloured sun; we marvel at bodies which cast no mid-day shadow, and at that strength of intensest heat reaching extreme and dull tepidity... So we have had a winter without storms, spring without mildness, summer without heat... The seasons have changed by failing to change; and what used to be achieved by mingled rains cannot be gained from dryness only.”

In the wake of this inexplicable darkness, crops failed and famine struck. Then a new disease swept across the entire continent of Eurasia: bubonic plague. It ravaged Europe over the course of the next century, reducing the population of the Roman empire by a third, killing four-fifths of the citizens of Constantinople, reaching as far east as China and as far northwest as Great Britain.

Other reports about the weather conditions from Byzantine and Constantinople record the same environmental phenomena such as dry fog, darkness, cold, drought, and famine.In 1984, Mike Baillie proposed that the climatic event of 536 CE (and by extension, all six of the others) could have been caused by “an asteroid, a comet, cometary fragment(s), or cosmic swarms.”

Perhaps one of the most fascinating and well researched theories is offered by authors Christopher Knight and Robert Lomas in their book Uriel's Machine: The Prehistoric Technology That Survived The Flood.

They present recent geological evidence showing that in 7640 BCE Earth was hit by seven comet fragments causing gigantic tidal waves. These findings are derived from the work of Austrian geologists Alexander and Edith Tollmann of Vienna University's Geological Institute.

By combining evidence from various disciplines (including the global distribution of tektites and a study of worldwide myths and legends), the Tollmanns propose that a comet approached the Earth from the south-east and fragmented into seven pieces which fell subsequently into the oceans causing mass destruction on all continents. One piece is believed to have landed in the North Atlantic, while another is considered to have fallen into “the Central Atlantic south of the Azores” creating a direct hit on “Atlantis”.

According to the authors of Uriel's Machine, there is a Masonic tradition that the biblical character Enoch constructed a machine to predict comets on an Earth collision course. They believe the ancient Book of Enoch describes how this machine should be constructed, and how this secret technology has been preserved since ancient times in Freemasonic lore.

ConclusionThe fall of ancient civilisations may now come to be viewed not as a failure of social engineering or political might but rather the product of climate change and, possibly, heavenly happenstance.

The Bible and other ancient texts have kept alive the memory of ancient catastrophes whose scientific analysis and understanding might now be vital for the protection of our own civilisations from future impacts.

These concerns are probably why the European Space Agency’s chief scientist wants a “Noah’s Ark” on the Moon, in case life on Earth is wiped out by an asteroid or nuclear holocaust.“If there were a catastrophic collision on Earth or a nuclear war, you could place some samples of Earth’s biosphere, including humans, [on the Moon],” said Dr. Bernard Foing. “You could repopulate the Earth afterwards, like a Noah’s Ark.”

At this point, only two things are certain: The Earth could be hit at any moment by a roving asteroid or comet, and we will be hit, again, unless something is done to prevent it.

Jason Jeffrey holds an interest in a wide range of subjects including geopolitics, the "New World Order", Big Brother, suppressed technology, psychic/spiritual development, ancient civilisations and esotericism.
He can be contacted at:

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Monday, November 19, 2007

Holocene Climatic Stability Cause

Reading a little of the press this weekend on the subject of Lake Agassi, the giant melt water lake that developed as the ice age melted away got me thinking. Just how much ice was sitting on land in the first place? We know that it was enough to raise the sea level by a good 100 meters over three millenia.

Knowing the area of the world ocean to be around 361 million square kilometers (wikipedia) we quickly convert this to a total volume of around 3,000 to 4,0000 cubic kilometers of ice. Surprisingly, this actually matches our expectations and we would have accepted a lot more. Of course, crustal depression may have accommodated a lot more as a rising crust theoretically produces more volume for the ocean.

Surprisingly, the annual melt rate therefore averages around a cubic kilometer per year. which is quite moderate. It looks like a lot but it was actually rather slow, melting at a stately few net inches per year rather like our current glaciers.

All the melt water did end up in the Atlantic and this created a annual pulse of fresh surface water into the ocean that must have mixed with and impacted the dynamics of the oceanic current system and its related weather. We can also be sure that this annual pulse was relieved by the escape of water into the South Atlantic and around the gap between Antarctica and South America, possible in the form of warm equatorial waters. We will let the speculators go crazy over that possibility.

On average, however, the sea level rose about one meter every generation or so for a period of three thousand years. More importantly, it did not go catastrophically faster at any time with perhaps the sudden release of Lake Agassi. This meant that populations had plenty of time to plan their response.

It certainly explains why a rising sea mythology is so deeply embedded. This was continuously observable to anyone near the sea. One other effect that is not so obvious is that the inter coastal region was always migrating and the related biosphere was always playing catch up. This surely had an impact on the productivity of these traditional sources of food that we do not yet appreciate.

So we can dismiss the idea of a sudden deluge that swept away countries although countries were overwhelmed such as the Indonesian Plain and the North Sea Plain in particular. Both were important sites of human habitation. And do not forget that what was lost globally was the continental shelf fairly early on. The creation of that plain may be our best proof of the duration of the Northern Ice Age.

I think that the current crustal configuration is incredibly stable, because it will be impossible for a Northern ice age to get going. No other crustal configuration could have served us as well, so long as the Atlantic is closed at the Equator and the Northern portion of the Equatorial Waters is forced into the Arctic. It is also obvious that a Northern Ice Cap is the norm throughout most of Global history, even if we have not found all the records. The only way that it is avoided is if the pole is open ocean as we have today to some degree and a source of warm water is available.

It is also interesting that the crust in the Northern Hemisphere appears to be somewhat in dynamic balance balance around the pole as is the continent of Antarctica around the South Pole. It may mean nothing, except to give encouragement to those supporting the idea that the build up of the northern ice cap was sufficient to trigger crustal slippage that ultimately stabilized into this very advantageous position. Maybe human good luck was inevitable.

On the other hand, those coastal plains were pretty extensive and also pretty livable unlike the arid hinterlands and related highlands. They could well have supported large human populations as equivalent lands do today. We simply do not know and perhaps can never know.

The point that we can make is that for the past ten thousand years and perhaps for the next million years, the global climate will no longer be kicked around by a growing Northern Ice Cap whose impact reaches deep into the temperate zone. We may even see the Greenland Ice Cap partially disappear while parts of the Antarctic cap should actually grow by a like amount.

This gift of Holocene climate stability should go on giving for a long time after we come to our senses and stop using the atmosphere and the ocean as a dumping tip.