This is what war looks like when there is no organized large stabalizing force available. as i posted years ago, the best strategic move would be to then rotate the US ground army into Kurdistan up against the Iranian border. The threat real and implied would have focused everyone's mind wonderfully while allowing a loyal base of operations to grow stronger.
It still needs to be done. The only thing certain now though is that such a move would be opposed by every available faction and that alone makes it correct.
Everyone one has an ante in this tribal pot and the only solution is the application of massive force and much good sense afterward, all of which appear to be impossibilities in view of the present track record.
Beyond the USA, we have Iran and Turkey able to put that much force in place. Neither are acceptable any more than the USA except as I just described. Everyone knows the USA wants to go home which makes settlement possible.
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How Islamic State Victories Shape the Syrian Civil War
Analysis
Forecast
- The Islamic State will prioritize the defense of its core supply lines, used to provide equipment and much-needed recruits.
- The Islamic State will continue to demonstrate considerable flexibility in its offensive operations.
- The Syrian government and rebel forces will have to increasingly devote their attention and resources to fighting the Islamic State, rather than prioritizing battles with each other.
In a display of considerable flexibility on the battlefield,
the Islamic State managed to take rebel forces in northern Aleppo by
surprise with a large-scale offensive aimed at securing more territory
along the Syria-Turkey border. After drawing down its forces in the
area, the Islamic State's sudden tactical shift resulted in considerable
initial gains against the rebels. Islamic State fighters seized Sawran
and are advancing near Mare. But thanks to reinforcements from Aleppo
city and other provinces, Syrian rebel forces have already begun to
mount powerful counterattacks against the Islamic State. For now, the
outcome of the battle hangs in the balance as both sides move to bolster
their ranks.
The Battle for Aleppo
The Islamic State's advance in northern Aleppo is likely driven by
its growing concern over its supply lines running through Turkey, which
provide the vast majority of the group's foreign recruits. Over the past
year, offensives by the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish People's
Protection Units have steadily eroded the Islamic State's control over
border posts and towns on the Turkey-Syria border. Over the past week,
the Euphrates Volcano outfit, which is affiliated with the Free Syrian
Army, openly targeted the Islamic State-held town of Tal Abyad in
northern Raqaa province. With the Kurdish People's Protection Units
advancing from al-Hasaka province in the east and Euphrates Volcano
attacking from Aleppo province to the west, Tal Abyad could slip from
the Islamic State's grasp. The Islamic State has even reportedly begun
evacuating its fighters' families from the town, moving them southward
toward Raqaa city.
The Islamic State has fought long and hard to prevent the loss of
northern Raqaa to Syrian rebel and Kurdish forces. However, the group
has realized that fighting these forces over open terrain when they are
backed by heavy coalition air support is unsustainable in the long run.
Having learned its lesson from the battle for Kobani
that stubbornness in pursuit of a failing strategy results in losses,
the Islamic State has begun focusing its efforts on the portions of
Syria that the U.S.-led coalition will not cover with air support.
The border of northern Aleppo province, west of the Euphrates River,
represents a logical target for the Islamic State. Not only is it the
sole border segment still safely under the group's control, but it is
also a region that is largely held by Islamist rebel factions. Because
many of these factions are affiliated with Jabhat al-Nusra, it is less
likely that the U.S.-led coalition would provide air support to this
territory. The Islamic State's concerns over supply lines into Turkey
and rebels' preoccupation with loyalist forces in the region further
motivate the group to concentrate its efforts on Aleppo.
A Boon for Damascus
The Islamic State's attack against northern Aleppo also serves the
interests of the Syrian government in two ways. First, it has forced
Syrian rebels to delay an impending offensive against loyalist forces in
the province. Over the past few months, the Aleppo front has been
relatively quiet, and rebels in the region have been gearing up for an
assault on government-held positions in and around the city. It is
possible this attack would have been timed with a similar offensive by
rebels in Daraa in the country's south. Furthermore, loyalist positions
in Aleppo are weakly reinforced at the moment because their supply lines
have been threatened and Damascus has prioritized other fronts. Since
the rebels now have to postpone or cancel their planned attack to
address the growing Islamic State threat, the group's advance comes as a
much-needed reprieve for loyalist troops in Aleppo.
Second, the Islamic State's push into Aleppo has prompted Jaish al-Fatah, the rebel group responsible for repeated victories
against government forces in Idlib province, to reallocate a
considerable number of its fighters to the Aleppo front to reinforce
their beleaguered allies. In light of emerging reports that the Islamic
State has captured a number of families of Ahrar al-Sham fighters, who
make up one of the leading subgroups within the Jaish al-Fatah
organization, it is all the more likely that Jaish al-Fatah rebels will
turn much of their attention toward the Islamic State in northern
Aleppo, a windfall for hard-pressed loyalist units in Idlib province
that were being pummeled by the rebels.
While the diversion of rebel forces to Aleppo has clear benefits for
the Syrian government, it is facing problems of its own stemming from
Islamic State activities in other areas of the country. Following the
Islamic State's capture of Palmyra,
the group is now advancing perilously close to the key government-held
city of Homs. Islamic State fighters in the region are also moving to
cut off and possibly assault the T4 air base, one of the government's
most important air bases and one that is critical to air operations over
eastern and central Syria.
The Islamic State is quickly proving to be a major threat to both
rebel and loyalist forces in Syria. Having long devoted the majority of
their fighters and efforts to battles against each other, rebel groups
and Damascus are becoming increasingly aware that they cannot afford to
let the Islamic State take advantage of the country's internal conflict
to assault and seize weakly held territory. This is particularly true as
the group converges on important populated areas such as Aleppo or even
Homs and Damascus, where it previously had no substantial presence.
Though the Islamic State certainly faces some critical threats of its own, including rebel and coalition efforts to cut off its supply lines through Turkey,
the group is still able to maintain its momentum in a number of areas.
Each new base, town or supply depot that it secures only boosts its
foothold in Syria's civil war, which in turn translates into gains
across the border in Iraq. The Syrian government and disparate rebel
forces must now dedicate more of their attention to the Islamic State
threat as it becomes an increasingly important factor in their battle
plans and objectives.
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