What this brings into stark relief is that the status quo is cracking
both economically and socially. The people are demanding a say and
are clawing back rights. At the same time the Falun Gong persecution
is backfiring as is ongoing actions of the secret police to control
society. Importantly though is that expansion by State driven
capital spending has been taken just as far as is plausible.
Worse, two factions are sliding toward confrontation and that can not
bode well as either will be pressed into aggressive tactics sooner
or later.
What is needed now is the immediate establishment of two party rule
at the first tier of political power. That means at the local level.
There power must be turned over to elected officials who have the
trust of their constituents. I would go so far as to establish two
legal parties, one titled the Reform Communist Party and the other
known as the National Communist Party. That allows everyone to find
a home.
I would use an every two year election cycle as we have found that
useful at this level. Then once we have reached the forth election
cycle, I would establish the same system for the next tier and then
move progressively into the higher levels each cycle thereafter
because by that point an ample cadre of experienced pols will exist.
In the meantime, a lot of disturbing stories can be expected out of
China and a lot sooner than any of us will like.
November 12,
2012
The Chinese Communist
Party’s inability to govern effectively will bring its collapse
within the next year or so, says author and analyst Gordon Chang.
Chang said in a Nov.
9 interview on Ontario’s public media station TVO that he
predicted in his 2001 book, The Coming Collapse of China, that
it would take about 10 years for the Chinese regime to collapse. We
could be talking about China as the world’s next failed state at
this time next year, he added.
“In China you can
see all the elements moving in the wrong direction,” Chang said.
Pointing to the
scandals and factional infighting leading up to the 18th Congress and
the leadership transition, Chang said that many people wonder whether
the Communist Party will be able to keep things together.
“You have to go back
to the beginnings of the Peoples’ Republic to see a problem as big
as this one,” Chang said. “At this point there are no elders
really to enforce discipline, there’s no Mao Zedong, no Deng
Xiaoping, no strong man to basically keep the fighting in bounds.”
Addressing the Party’s loss of legitimacy and need for reform,
Chang pointed out that the exposure of the alleged fortunes
accumulated by Xi’s and Wen’s families, the Bo scandal, and the
rampant corruption by officials have delegitimized the Communist
Party in the eyes of the populace. People have lost faith in the
Party with each allegation, not just of corruption, but of the
licentiousness, murder, and treason, which have all eroded away the
Party’s legitimacy, Chang said.
“This is the time
when China really needs reform, but reform and structural change will
be off the agenda … and that really is the problem for China right
now … and the Communist Party is in no position to see structural
change go forward,” Chang said.
Every time there is a
leadership change, Chinese people get their hopes up that there might
be some improvement, only to find that the new guys are really
basically as bad or worse than the old ones, Chang said, adding,
“What these people stand for … we are seeing an affirmation of
the status quo.”
However, economic
realities and the changing Chinese society will be unavoidable
driving factors in China’s direction, regardless of the Party’s
preference, according to Chang.
Party conservatives
certainly want no change, yet something clearly needs to be done, he
said, as the economy clearly is stumbling, with the economic growth
actually closer to zero percent or 1 percent than to the Party’s
proclaimed 7 percent, if other economic data, such as power usage,
are used to determine growth. The Communist Party’s legitimacy is
dependent on continually delivering economic growth and prosperity,
and the economic statistics are troubling, Chang said.
In Chang’s opinion,
changes in Chinese society will also push against the Party.
“Most people believe
that a one-party-system is no longer appropriate for China’s
modernizing society, and that is a fundamental problem that the
Communist Party can’t get over,” he said.
A new assertiveness is
manifesting in the Chinese people and is demonstrated by the
environmental protests and the regime’s acquiescence to the
protesters’ demands. The people see leaders walking away with
billions, and this fuels their anger, Chang said.
“Clearly what we see
is a deterioration in the ability of the Communist Party to govern.”
No comments:
Post a Comment