We are in the wind down to the vote count and a few comments are in
order. From the beginning, I thought that this election would be
almost impossible for Obama to win. My reasoning here was simple.
His success in 2008 was predicated on several non repeating events:
1 His cocoon of silence hid his leftest leanings, and his gross
inexperience as a leader.
2 The crash of 2008 crushed the republican claim of economic
stewardship regardless of shared fault.
3 McCain was as equally unskilled on the economic issues.
4 He promoted charisma over substance to good effect and attracted a
huge number of fresh voters to himself.
Even then his margin of success was small.
What this means is that there are a couple million votes out there
that are likely not coming aboard this time. His real performance in
office is not compelling at all whoever you wish to blame. Yet his
recent foray into hurricane Sandy helped a little but likely not
enough. We will see tonight.
What we have from the polls is a tied race, equal acceptability and
no serious faults to either candidate. There has been no train-wreak
on the way in. This means that the margin of error leaves ample room
for either to be a winner.
What we have is a large mass who feel good about Obama yet have
little rational reason to extend support and another large mass
disappointed and ready to support the contender who does provide a
convincing resume at least.
As I said, I cannot see Obama winning this one. I do not see that he
deserves to win either and certainly think it is time to move on.
Yet the closeness leaves him room. Did Sandy give him the last feel
good tip over the edge? We will soon know.
My Call, My
Reasons, and Five Things I Regret
November 5,
2012 By John Mark Reynolds
I am voting for Mr.
Romney and now on the last day of the election is a good time to
summarize why, what I think will happen, why, and sum up regrets. At
the end of the day tomorrow this will help assess what I got right
and wrong.
Why Romney:
I am voting for Mr.
Romney for three essential reasons. First, he is more likely to solve
the debt problem of the United States. Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama
have a bad record on debt, but Mr. Romney was a business leader. He
feels the need to balance the budget in his bones. Second, Mr. Romney
will protect religious freedom. My university has had to sue the
federal government to stay in business. Mr. Romney will protect our
liberty to do business as conscience demands. Third, Mr. Romney
supports traditional marriage and the right to life for the unborn.
Mr. Obama has flipped on the first issue and been consistently
supportive of legalized abortion.
What I think will
happen:
From January forward I
have called the race: Romney 51/2 to Obama 47/48. This is a wide
enough margin the Electoral College will go to Romney.
I stand by that call
and I think that is a wide enough margin that the electoral college
will not come into play.
Why do I think this?
First, the President
is under 48% in the cumulative polls. It is hard to see an incumbent
winning with those numbers.
Second, Mr. Romney now
has favorables that equal those of the President. People like both
Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. They have no reason to stay with Mr. Obama.
Third, independents
are with Mr. Romney. I don’t believe that Democratic turnout can
compensate.
Fourth, energy is with
the GOP. Mr. Obama has hardcore supporters, but they are complacent.
As in the first debate, most Americans think Mr. Obama will win. As a
result a small, but not inconsequential number of his soft supporters
will simply stay home thinking they are not needed. I have never seen
a campaign in a close race more confident from day one than the Obama
team.
Tomorrow we will know
if it is justified. Of course, if they win, it wasn’t bragging, but
they never seemed to really sweat. I think that is a problem.
Fifth, Mr. Romney has
a volunteer army, but Mr. Obama relies on paid folk. McCain never got
this army going, but Mr. Romney has. It doesn’t draw much media
attention, because the media doesn’t live in the neighborhoods
where such people live.
Why I may be wrong:
There are three good
reasons to think I am wrong.
First, Mr. Obama has
outspent Mr. Romney. His team is highly competent and confident.
Second, the aggregate
of state polls show Mr. Romney losing. The polls are not usually
wrong.
Third, Mr. Obama is
the incumbent with all the machine that this entails. His “Sandy”
performance showed just one of the advantages that will continue the
next twenty-four hours.
Five things I regret
or got wrong:
I was overly harsh
with Mr. Gingrich. I did not support his candidacy, but at times my
attacks on him were too personal and lacked grace.
I was wrong in my
early analysis of what statistician Nate Silver was saying. Because I
did not agree with his argument (I still am skeptical of his model),
I was not careful to follow his reasoning. If his model is right,
then his conclusions are correct.
I failed to write much
about the defense of traditional marriage, because it seemed
unnecessary and I tire of the hate mail.
I regret that Mr.
Romney (and most of my party) continues to support means of
interrogation that I believe are wrong. I should have said more about
this as well.
I thought Mr. Ryan
would be a stronger asset to the ticket. If he does not help Mr.
Romney carry Wisconsin (as I think he will), then he was a wasted
pick. He will have done no harm, but no good. He was not as ready for
national media as I had hoped. He won his debate with Biden (if he
won) only because Biden was so cartoonish, but he also allowed Biden
to dominate too much. On the whole, I think Ryan will be an excellent
vice-President and a good future candidate, but he was not the
“golden boy” I thought him.
Again, if Romney
carries Wisconsin then the pick is justified, but Mr. Ryan will have
no other impact. I thought he would.
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