The problem with navies is that they promote an arms race. That promotes war on Land. Yet Naval power is almost useless to stop a land war. China has zero reason to play great power except to plausibly chill USA adventurism of which we have seen too much. Even then the mere existence of such a fleet ensures that we have an Indian Fleet. All at absorbent cost and resource diversion to both countries.
Add in China's bullying over coastal rights and the South China Sea and we quickly force everyone in the region to form an anti China Navy. All this is because the Navy itsels is now empire building politically. This can obviously end badly.
The world has now reached the point in which a formal international boundary commission needs to be put in place along with an open seas management regime that does not allow unregulated exploitation but allows regulated auction.
The developed West needs to address this as the West.
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ONI Reveals Massive Chinese Naval Buildup
New supersonic cruise missile deployed
Luyang III destroyer / ONI
BY:
China has deployed a new high-speed anti-ship cruise missile and
is sharply expanding an armada of advanced guided-missile warships and
submarines, according to a naval intelligence report made public
Thursday.
The Office of Naval Intelligence, in its first unclassified assessment of the Chinese navy in six years, revealed
deployment of the new YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile on
warships and submarines that analysts say poses a major threat to U.S.
and allied vessels.
China’s current naval force of 300 surface ships, submarines,
amphibious ships, and missile-armed patrol craft is rapidly expanding,
the report says.
According to the report, China began building or launched more than
60 naval ships and vessels last year, and a similar number of warships
are under construction or deployed for 2015.
“Major qualitative improvements are occurring within naval aviation
and the submarine force, which are increasingly capable of striking
targets hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland,” the report said,
adding that despite some shortfalls, “it is emerging as a well equipped
and competent force.”
The key focus of the Chinese navy is anti-surface ship warfare
through deployment of large numbers of advanced destroyers, frigates,
and submarines, supported by long-range range over the horizon radar.
The new YJ-18 cruise missile is deployed on the newest class of
destroyer called the Luyang III, and on diesel attack submarines known
as the Song/Yuan class, and nuclear-powered Shang-class attack
submarines.
YJ-18
Andrew Erickson, a Naval War College professor, said the YJ-18 poses a significant threat.
“This supersonic missile could be extremely difficult for U.S. and allied ships to defend against,” Erickson said.
The YJ-18 reportedly has a maximum range of 111 miles at a speed of
Mach .08 and a higher speed range of 24 miles. The new missile is more
capable and has a longer range than the current anti-ship cruise missile
arsenal.
Additionally, the report reveals that China’s coast guard now has
more ships and vessels than the combined coast guard forces of countries
in the region.
It was the first time the U.S. government has acknowledged China’s
deployment of the supersonic missile, which appears based on the Russian
SSN-27/Klub cruise missile.
The report also says deployment of DF-21D long-range anti-ship
ballistic missiles will expand the attack range of the Chinese military
“further into the Philippine and South China Seas.”
DF-21D / ONI
The report notes China is using its newly expanded naval power in
maritime disputes throughout the region, including the Bohai Sea, Yellow
Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea.
“Against this back drop of increasing military capability, China’s
leaders appear increasingly willing to assert China’s maritime claims,
even when such actions risk exacerbating tension with China’s
neighbors,” the report said.
China has clashed with Vietnam, Philippines, and Japan over maritime claims to islands in the South China and East China Seas.
Further escalating tensions, the Chinese have reclaimed “hundreds of
acres” of land last year as part of a buildup of naval and maritime law
enforcement operations in the South China Sea’s Spratly islands.
“Together with cutting-edge Second Artillery Force [missile]
developments and South China Sea island building, this raises a serious
risk for the U.S. and its allies,” Erickson said.
“If China envelops a disputed feature such as Second Thomas Shoal in a
‘Cabbage Strategy’ with nonmilitary Chinese personnel facing foreign
forces—backed by some of the world’s most potent ballistic and cruise
missiles—how will America respond? Washington needs an answer soon, or
it will risk major erosion of its interests and those of its allies.”
China’s submarine force also has expanded rapidly. Currently, China
has deployed 59 diesel submarines and nine nuclear power submarines, and
ONI estimates the numbers will increase to 63 and 11 respectively by
2020.
“China’s newest indigenous submarine-launched [anti-ship cruise
missile], the YJ-18, extends a similar capability to the SONG, YUAN, and
SHANG classes,” the report said. “Previously, China’s only indigenous
sub-launched ASCM was the YJ-82, which has a much shorter range.”
The report also reveals that China has now deployed four Jin-class
nuclear missile submarines that are expected to begin operational
deployments this year.
Adm. William Gortney, commander of the U.S. Northern Command, said
earlier this week that China’s has three missile submarines in the water
that are a “concern.”
The sea deployments of the submarines, armed with JL-2
submarine-launched ballistic missiles, “will mark China’s first credible
at-sea second-strike nuclear capability,” the report said.
“The JIN-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) is poised
to begin strategic patrols in the near future, for the first time,
putting Chinese intercontinental range ballistic missiles to sea,” the
report said.
“At the same time, with the commissioning of the Kuznetsov-class
aircraft carrier Liaoning China has taken the first step as a
carrier-capable navy.”
The report contradicts a key theme of U.S. intelligence analysts for
the past 15 years, namely that China’s military was defensive and
focused mainly on preparing for a conflict with Taiwan.
Source: ONI
The new report says China’s naval buildup is for operations far
beyond Chinese shores, including sea-lane security and other power
projection.
“Over the long term, Beijing aspires to sustain naval missions far from China’s shores,” the ONI report said.
Among the naval operations showing the expanded reach were the
Chinese navy’s combat training in the Philippine Sea, training missions
in the Mediterranean, and increased intelligence ship deployments in the
western Pacific. Last year, for the first time a Chinese submarine was
deployed to Indian Ocean.
Rick Fisher, a Chinese military affairs expert, said the YJ-18 is
also likely to be deployed in land-based and aircraft-launched versions.
“This is a quite informative but fair assessment of the current and
near term prospects for China’s naval power,” Fisher said of the report,
noting that ONI provides more details than congressionally mandated
Pentagon reports on the Chinese military.
“Its identification of the Navy [Communist] Party Standing Committee
is a significant contribution to our understanding of the PLA,” he said.
The committee is the Party organ that makes decisions for the navy
and the report notes that China’s military is a “party army” not a
traditional national defense force as other nations have.
“This is a crucial point,” Fisher said. “It means that 35 years of
effort by successive U.S. administrations to engage the PLA has been to a
major degree misdirected. There must now be a major push by all U.S.
agencies charged with ‘engaging; China to focus on the Party.”
Other key disclosures in the report include:
- The NATO code name for China’s J-10 fighter, the “Firebird”
- China’s navy will likely emerge as “one of China’s most prolific [unmanned aerial vehicle] users”
- The Chinese navy has 50,000 mines
- China will likely conduct warship deployment to the central and eastern Pacific in the next five years.
- The PLA Navy made “sporadic” progress as integrated joint-war fighting capabilities
The report concludes that China’s naval build up of aircraft
carriers, ballistic missile submarines, and potentially large-deck
amphibious ships is altering how the PLA navy operates and “is viewed by
the world.”
“Here, ONI is suggesting what to some non-government analysts is
obvious: China is building its naval forces for eventual global power
projection,” Fisher said.
“ONI is now suggesting, as others have already, that China could soon
be projecting naval power in the same manner as the U.S. Navy,” he
said. “The Washington policy community has not yet started to
understand, much less respond to this level of strategic challenge.”
