This is likely a
conservative figure as the balance of the global population is now lifting off
in a scramble to join the global middle class.
However you do the numbers, half the population globally is clearly
moving up and the other half is working hard to plug in and will. I do not think that it will take more than
thirty years before we are generally satisfied.
Thus air transport
continues to grow quickly and a doubling in twenty years appears reasonable.
Thus for the career
minded, the industry continues to provide job security if not security from
bankruptcy which is the ban of all transportation finance generally.
Even replacement
technology faces a long development and build out cycle that often exceeds
lifetimes.
Over 29,000 new
aircraft required in the next 20 years
Future journeys will increasingly rely on aviation
24 SEPTEMBER 2013
As aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all
parts of the world, future Journeys will increasingly be made by air
particularly to and from emerging markets. According to Airbus’ latest Global
Market Forecast (GMF) in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow
at 4.7 per cent annually requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter
aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion. Some 28,350 of these are passenger
aircraft valued at US$4.1 trillion. Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing
aircraft with more efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it
means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.
Economic growth, growing middle classes,
affordability, ease of travel, urbanisation, tourism, and migration are some
factors increasing connectivity between people and regions and how often they
travel. Increasing urbanisation will lead to a doubling of mega cities from 42
today to 89 by 2032, and 99 per cent of the world’s long-haul traffic will be
between or through these.
Traffic growth has led to average aircraft size
‘growing’ by 25 per cent with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing
existing backlogs. Larger aircraft like the A380 combined with higher load
factors make the most efficient use of limited slots and contribute to rising
passenger numbers without additional flights as announced by London’s Heathrow
Airport. A focus on sustainable growth enabled fuel burn and noise reductions
of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with
innovations like the A320neo, the A320 Sharklet, the A380 and the A350 XWB.
“By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in
traffic overtaking Europe and North America. Today on average, a fifth of the
population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and by 2032, this
will swell to two thirds. The attraction of air travel means that passenger
numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9 billion, to 6.7 billion by 2032,
clearly demonstrating aviation’s essential role in economic growth,” said John
Leahy, Chief Operating Officer – Customers.
Domestic flows are also set to rise strongly with
domestic India growing at the fastest rate (nearly 10 per cent), followed by
China and Brazil (seven per cent). Overall, with an above world average traffic
growth rate of 5.5 per cent, Asia-Pacific will account for 36 per cent of all
new passenger aircraft demand, followed by Europe (20 per cent) and North
America (19 per cent).
In the Very Large aircraft market, dominated by the
A380, there is a requirement for 1,334 passenger aircraft valued at US$519
billion. Of these, 47 per cent will be needed in the Asia-Pacific region,
followed by the Middle East (26 per cent) and then Europe (16 per cent).
Asia-Pacific’s requirement for the A380 is demonstrated by the region’s growth
in middle classes which is set to quadruple in Asia-Pacific in 20 years.
In the Twin Aisle market, covered by amongst others
the A350 XWB and the A330, the requirement is for 6,779 aircraft valued at
US$1.82 trillion. Of these, 48 per cent of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific,
followed by Europe (15 per cent) and the Middle East (13 per cent).
The Single Aisle market represents 71 per cent of
deliveries by unit numbers with a requirement for 20,242 aircraft valued at
US$1.80 trillion. Asia-Pacific will require 34 per cent of deliveries followed
by North America and Europe requiring 23 per cent each. The global success of
low cost carriers (LCC) especially in Europe, and increasingly in Asia, the
Middle East and Africa is helping to open new markets and give access to the
benefits of flight to first time flyers from these regions. By 2032, LCCs will
have increased their traffic market share from today’s 17 per cent to 21 per
cent.
Note to editors:
The Airbus Global Market Forecast gives a detailed
analysis of world air transport developments, covering 208 distinct passenger
and freight traffic flows, as well as a year-by-year fleet evolution of the
world’s aircraft operators, through fleet analysis of nearly 750 passenger
airlines and 190 freighter operators over the next 20 years. In doing so, the
forecast covers aircraft demand from the regional market to the very largest
aircraft available, the A380 today.
Visit our Global Market Forecast section,
for the first time a GMF is available as an application for Apple iPhone and Apple iPad, for Android smartphone, Android tablet devices.
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