Kevin and Bloomberg are Wrong that Volkswagen Will Beat Tesla in EVs by 2024 and 2025

While everyone has been sleeping, the whole auto industry has made a full transition to the EV car protocol.  Look at these numbers.  The factories are been built as we read this and you can see the expected throughput.

As I have posted, this can all lead to internal zipper lanes inside cities to draw the load off the roadways.  This makes full use of the auto drive feature, possibly road based charging as well.

The gasoline protocol actually has no reason to go away until it is either uneconomic as outranged by the EV outside the cities.  Thus we can well have a system in which less than ten percent of traffic is gasoline based and is essentially on demand for intercity traffic and open country.

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» Meet Kevin and Bloomberg are Wrong that Volkswagen Will Beat Tesla in EVs by 2024 and 2025

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/06/meet-kevin-and-bloomberg-are-wrong-that-volkswagen-will-beat-tesla-in-evs-by-2024-and-2025.html

Meet Kevin and Bloomberg are Wrong that Volkswagen Will Beat Tesla in EVs by 2024 and 2025

June 16, 2022 by Brian Wang

Bloomberg has predicted that Volkwagen Group will outsell Tesla for battery electric vehicles in 2024 and 2025. This is utterly ridiculous.

They project Tesla will cap out at 2.3-2.5 million per year car sales. Tesla will have a runrate of 800k cars in China annualized with no shutdowns and 600k in Fremont. They will get 500k per year out of Berlin and 500kk out of Austin. This is already 2.4 million cars. Tesla China is getting expanded to 2 million cars per year. Berlin and Austin are getting expanded. Bloomberg is saying that Tesla China expansion will not happen in 2023.

Tesla is targeting 50%+ annual growth.

930k in 2021

1.5M in 2022

2.25M in 2023

3.4M in 2024

5.1M in 2025

Tesla can get to 5.1M in 2025 with 800k Fremont, 2M China, 1.3M Austin, 1M Berlin

VW has minimal growth in 2022 and will not be able to use iron LFP batteries. Iron LFP battery EVs will be 2 out of every 3 EVs in 2025.

Volkswagen will not top 1 million unit sales in 2024. BYD and other China car makers are more competitive. Volkswagen would need to buy its way into a joint venture in China or shift existing joint ventures into cheap China EVs to pad its numbers.

There could be 10-13 million cheap China EVs in 2025. Carmakers can try to dominate in this sub-$8k and sub-$20k markets. There are a lot of China domestic makers.

Tesla Berlin ramp means Tesla Europe customers will avoid $15000 in import duties and shipping costs. Tesla already has the top BEV sales in Europe. VW and Stellantis are only ahead when PHEV are included.

Tesla will grab 40% share in 2023 in Europe EVs up from 15% today.

some other videos:

Tesla Killers or Tesla Kills Competition

Using higher silicon Anodes to make lower cost Tesla Standard range iron LFP cars. $30-35K car in 2024 and $25k Model 3 in 2026