I do not see it that way. This is a civil war that will seek a truce
when it is clear to both parties that the other side will not submit
and that neither can be forced to submit. The government side has
proven its mettle and the rebels are proving their mettle.
A cease fire will allow for both parties to reorganize their
political presence. A negotiation can then focus on the
reestablishment of civil society and local security for both parties.
A third party intervenor, even if only diplomatic should be able to
get the situation settled somewhat.
In the meantime there is some spill over from groups that welcome a
widened involvement.
We actually have the same scenario in play in Libya with two factions
not trusting each other. The Arab spring merely unleashed these
factions but failed to get them to talk to each other as yet.
Note that in Iraq that the two factions are in fact talking and
cooperating while the Kurds simply stand back. I think that is the
natural road for all as there are few economic gains to be had
through conflict.
Forget Libya, The
Syrian Conflict Is What's Going To Make The Middle East Explode
Agence France Presse
| Oct. 17, 2012, 12:17 PM
Syria's 19-month
conflict could set the entire region ablaze, international peace
envoy Lakhdar Brahimi told reporters in Lebanon on Wednesday.
"This crisis
cannot remain confined within Syrian territory," Brahimi said.
"Either it is solved, or it gets worse... and sets (the region)
ablaze. A truce for (the Muslim holiday of) Eid al-Adha would be a
microscopic step on the road to solving the Syria crisis."
Brahimi called on
Monday for a temporary ceasefire during the four-day Eid al-Adha
holiday starting on October 26.
"The Syrian
people, on both sides, are burying some 100 people a day," he
said.
"Can we not ask
that this toll falls for this holiday? This will not be a happy
holiday for the Syrians, but we should at least strive to make it
less sad."
The Damascus regime
says it is prepared to discuss the proposal in talks with Brahimi.
The exiled opposition says it would welcome a ceasefire, but insists
the ball is in the government's court to halt its daily bombardments.
Brahimi said that "if
the Syrian government accepts, and I understand there is hope, and if
the opposition accepts," a truce would be a step "towards a
more global ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy artillery, a stop to
the flow of foreign weapons, and then towards a political solution in
Syria."
His tour to countries
playing influential roles in the crisis has taken him to Saudi Arabia
and Turkey, which support the revolt, and Iran, Damascus's closest
regional ally, as well as to Iraq and Egypt.
Brahimi said he would
end his tour in Damascus, but did not say when.
"We are in
discussions with all the parties to stop the bloodbath and to (ensure
that) problems in Syria are solved by the Syrians themselves,"
Brahimi said, after meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib
Mikati.
"Everyone says
the bloodbath in Syria is very dangerous, and that it needs to stop,
but each side blames the other" for violence that has killed
more than 33,000 people since the outbreak of a revolt in March 2011,
according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
"We need to see
how pull Syria out of the abyss it has fallen into."
Brahimi said he was
following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Kofi Annan, in dealing
with "this grave issue," as well as the Geneva accords
reached on June 30 by an action group on Syria.
Annan's six-point
peace plan failed to stop the bloodshed, while the Geneva accords
fell short of calling on Assad to step down.
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