The Global Temperatrure Trend

I am reposting this post by Roger Coppock from the news groups.

July tied for 8th warmest of the 128 year NASA global land record.

Lately, fossil fools fondly repeat a lie about global warming slowing down. "Global warming ended in 1998," they say. The truth is published here every month in this section of these reports:

The month of July in the year 2007, is linearly projected to be 14.397, yet it was 14.57 above projected.

Using the line of regression, the temperature is projected. If global warming reversed, the actual measured temperatures would have to fall below the line of regression temperature, and do so for a year or more. So far this has not happened, not for even two months in a row.

Measured temperatures which are nearly always above projected temperatures mean that the temperature rise is accelerating. This is simple geometry. Each above the line measured global temperature raises the slope of the regression line when that new point joins the data. This pattern is now 5 decades old.

Please see:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Slope1952-2006.jpg

Clearly therefore, the fossil fools lie, and global mean
surface temperatures continue to rise.

These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

They represent the results of tens of millions of readings taken at thousands of stations covering all the lands of the Earth over the last 128 years. Yes, the data are corrected for the urban heat island effect.

The Mean July temperature over the last 128 years is 14.024 C.
The Variance is 0.08871.
The Standard Deviation is 0.2978.

Rxy 0.72910 Rxy^2 0.53159
TEMP = 13.644595 + (0.005877 * (YEAR-1879))
Degrees of Freedom = 126 F = 142.99616
Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
0.999999999999999999999 (21 nines), which is darn close to 100%!

The month of July in the year 2007, is linearly projected to be 14.397, yet it was 14.57. <- Above projected. The sum of the residuals is 21.14880

Exponential least squares fit: TEMP = 13.647507 * e^(.0004181 * (YEAR-1879))
The sum of the residuals is 21.10617

Rank of the months of July
Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
1998 14.90 0.876 2.94
2002 14.73 0.706 2.37
1990 14.66 0.636 2.14
2005 14.66 0.636 2.14
1995 14.60 0.576 1.94
1991 14.59 0.566 1.90
2006 14.59 0.566 1.90
2007 14.57 0.546 1.83 <-- 2001 14.57 0.546 1.83 2003 14.54 0.516 1.73 1981 14.51 0.486 1.63 1999 14.51 0.486 1.63 1987 14.50 0.476 1.60 MEAN 14.024 0.000 0.00 1892 13.68 -0.344 -1.15 1902 13.68 -0.344 -1.15 1889 13.66 -0.364 -1.22 1899 13.66 -0.364 -1.22 1888 13.64 -0.384 -1.29 1923 13.64 -0.384 -1.29 1912 13.59 -0.434 -1.46 1918 13.59 -0.434 -1.46 1890 13.55 -0.474 -1.59 1882 13.45 -0.574 -1.93 1884 13.44 -0.584 -1.96 1904 13.43 -0.594 -1.99 1895 13.37 -0.654 -2.19 1891 13.19 -0.834 -2.80

The most recent 176 continuous months, or 14 years and 8 months, on this GLB.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980 data set norm of 14 C.

There are 1531 months of data on this data set:
-- 744 of them are at or above the norm.
-- 787 of them are below the norm.

This run of 176 months above the norm is the result of a warming world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years,
otherwise expect it to continue.

What he is showing us is that the curve fits a linear up trend since 1960. The actual curve was below the line for the last several years, but this year has jumped above the trend line. Ouch!

I also have a sense that this year the land temperatures are everywhere warmer leaving absolutely no room for argument.

From a larger perspective, we are continuing to recover from the little ice age that abruptly began in the late 15th century that sent Europe reeling and also likely crashed the populations of North America. Corn is very vulnerable.

This ice age is posited as been caused by a reduction in solar activity attested by the lack of sunspot activity.

There is one other mechanism of global warming and cooling that I think we should at least contemplate. Is Antarctica capable of sending periodic ice surges into the south Atlantic, thereby abruptly dropping global surface temperatures by a degree or so?

It is clear to me that the Northern hemisphere will normally stabilize around a regime in which winter sea ice is created and destroyed annually comfortably offsetting the heat pump of the gulf stream. We are watching it happen rapidly now.

So why did we get a little ice age?