Could Napoleon have won the Battle of Waterloo?

The fair answer is yes, although an allied retreat to Brussels seems a more likely alternative followed by an exhausted French Army.

however, many other national armies were in the field to bring to the confrontation sooner or later and Napoleon no longer had that luxury.  He really was running out of time and everyone was an enemy now.

As it was, he gambled then and there and lost.

Could Napoleon have won the Battle of Waterloo had he not split off so many of his troops to chase the Prussians?

“The nearest-run thing you ever saw in your life.”

Those were the words expressed by a haunted Duke of Wellington to a friend many years later, when he was asked to recall his thoughts relating to the Battle of Waterloo, fought between himself and his Prussian allies under General Blucher versus the Grande Armee under Napoleon Bonaparte.

Words that were uttered even when a third of the French Army had been away, chasing a single Prussian Corps — troops who were ordered to walk in a different direction while the rest of Blucher’s forces moved southwest to unite with the British on Mont-Saint-Jean Ridge overseeing the battlefield.

It must be remembered that Arthur Wellesley — a.k.a. The Duke of Wellington — had not anticipated fighting Napoleon in the open.

In fact, it was Blucher who ultimately persuaded the British commander to take his chances by assuring him of a healthy Prussian presence — otherwise, Wellington would have retreated his men to the modern-day Belgian Capital of Brussels.

On several occasions during the campaign, the French had various opportunities to defeat either the British or Prussians at sites such as Ligny, Quatre-Bras, and Genappe, though fortune played in favour of the Coalition, and Napoleon was denied a potential early victory.

When Napoleon and Wellington faced off at Waterloo on the morning of June 18, 1815, each side — at least on paper — possessed 70,000 troops under their immediate command, though several men, particularly from the French, had fallen sick and were therefore rendered combat ineffective.

Heavy floods caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora in April of that year also slowed the French advance, giving Wellington and Blucher more time to communicate with one another, as well as making it easier for the British to defend themselves from the French at Waterloo, who were forced to march across the muddy terrain to reach their objective.

By approximately 1 PM — less than ninety minutes after the first French shells fell on the British lines — Prussian troops began rapidly appearing on the northeastern corner of the battlefield.

Napoleon proceeded to send most of his reserves, including the Young Guard, towards the village of Plancenoit, where they were heavily engaged with Blucher’s advance within the hour.

Despite now being outnumbered on the Mont-Saint-Jean Ridge Front, the more experienced French troops were able to gradually splinter the British lines.

Nearly every single one of Wellington’s senior officers, including Thomas Picton and Lord Uxbridge were killed or wounded, leaving the increasingly exhausted British regulars largely without a proper chain of command.

With the Prussians fighting their way through Napoleon’s reserves, it was then that Bonaparte ordered the Old Guard — the most elite fighters in his army — to move into battle and deliver the death knell against Wellington.

By then, the French line was a mere fifty feet from the British command.

Realizing that it was now or never, Blucher ordered his Prussians to butcher their way at a fast pace, regardless of the losses.

From the French line, troops began wavering, though Napoleon — who knew full-well the nationality of those advancing on them — tried to uplift their morale by convincing them that it was in fact Grouchy and the other 30,000 nearby Frenchmen coming to save the day.

French cavalrymen then began shouting “Long live the Emperor” as they brazenly charged the battered British troops.

Just as the remaining Redcoats were about to collapse in the face of the Old Guard, the Prussians proceeded to fire their volleys into the advance.

Nearly the entire cavalry force was shattered, with the Old Guard not faring much better.

Rumours then began spreading that Grouchy had betrayed the cause, prompting those who were able to do so to begin fleeing the battlefield in disarray.

Within minutes, what had been a close but decisive French victory in the making was now a complete disaster.

Even Napoleon soon realized the situation was lost and proceeded to flee for Paris in hopes of persuading the National Assembly to lend him more troops.

What many do not know, is that while the main French forces under Napoleon fought a steady retreat south, Grouchy would engage the Prussian corps he had pursued at Wavre the following day and quickly routed them.

Would the outcome at Waterloo have been different had Napoleon had Grouchy’s support?

Probably.

After all, even Wellington admitted that the battle could have gone either way even with the Prussians, as well as the absence of a third of the French troops who participated in this campaign.

It has also been noted that Napoleon had been advised by his officers to call off the assault of the Old Guard, and to remain in camp for the night so that the battle could resume the following day.

Napoleon had gambled on being able to annihilate Wellington before Blucher could come to the rescue… and failed.

Perhaps if the Battle of Waterloo had been a two-day battle, the French would have been better organized, and Grouchy may very well have showed up on the rear — after destroying the isolated Prussian corps.

Another big blunder was Napoleon trying to persuade his men that the combatants who were in fact Prussians were fellow French troops.

Had Napoleon not made this statement, would the sudden pandemonium that broke in the French lines have taken place?

Unlikely.

Especially not with the Old Guard, who had never previously broke in the manner witnessed at Waterloo.

In conclusion, we will never know what could have been.

What we do know, is that the British who survived were so worn-out by the end of the battle, that when Wellington waved his hat forward as a signal to pursue the French, they refused to obey orders.

Wellington himself was annoyed that the Prussians had been largely omitted in early literature and art depicting the Battle of Waterloo, since it had grossly undermined how hard his men had to fight.

I think these statements from one of the senior victors at Waterloo speaks louder than any hypothetical timeline ever could.