Why Billions in New Pipelines Cannot Break Iran's Strategic Advantage

Building plausible alternative infrastructure has always been possible but also problematic which has slowly disapated over the past two decades.  It does mean building a proper connector pipeline along the coast in order to supply the Saudi pipeline. just that alone is a good start.

My point though is that is needs to be done.  Just as the USA sorely needs the keystone pipeline and Canada needs a large pipeline corridor from Eastern Bc thtrough to prince rupert.

Every proposal has turned into a handy political chokepoint.which is now proving to be a problem.

Djoomart Otorbaev’s Post

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/djoomart-otorbaev-519680117_middleeast-strait-hormuz-share-7487433436270391296-7sXs/

Why Billions in New Pipelines Cannot Break Iran's Strategic Advantage. The latest escalation in the #MiddleEast has exposed an uncomfortable reality for global energy markets: there is no quick substitute for the #Strait of #Hormuz. Every missile launched, every tanker delayed, and every #Houthi attack in the #RedSea reinforces the same conclusion. Geography still dominates geopolitics. The #US and #Iran have exchanged another round of strikes, while the #Tehran-backed Houthis have expanded attacks on commercial shipping, including vessels linked to #SaudiArabia. As a result, energy exporters are accelerating plans that have remained frozen for years. The objective is obvious: reduce dependence on Hormuz before the next crisis closes it completely. But ambition and reality are two very different things. The most symbolic development came on July 17, when Iraq and #Syria agreed to restore the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline. With a theoretical capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, the route would reconnect northern Iraqi oil fields with the #Mediterranean after more than two decades of disruption. The East-West Pipeline already carries up to 7 million barrels per day from the #Gulf to the Red Sea, and #Riyadh is reportedly studying an expansion to roughly 9 million barrels daily. The #UAE is pursuing the same strategy by expanding exports through #Fujairah on the Gulf of #Oman, where current pipeline capacity stands near 1.5 million barrels per day with additional capacity planned before 2027. Currently, existing and planned bypass routes can transport between 8 and 11 million barrels daily. In a best-case scenario, total capacity could approach nearly 19 million barrels when including both current systems and future projects [https://lnkd.in/gybR7MeV]. However, this seems less remarkable considering that approximately 16.7 million barrels of crude and condensate pass through Hormuz each day, along with over 30% of the world's #LNG trade. The biggest weakness is natural gas. #Qatar, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, has virtually no viable pipeline alternative. LNG carriers still must navigate Hormuz. Markets grasp these constraints more clearly than politicians do. The volatility underscores a key reality: prices are no longer primarily influenced by production but by confidence in the ability to export from the Gulf. Building alternative infrastructure will take years, capital, and political stability that much of the region lacks. Until then, Iran retains a powerful strategic lever. As long as Hormuz remains vulnerable, Tehran can influence global energy markets far beyond its own production volumes. For the future, the world's oil and gas prices will depend less on geology than on what happens in one narrow waterway—and on whether Washington and Tehran choose confrontation or compromise.

No alternative can ever substitute the Strait of Hormuz. 1- Building pipeline is extremely expensive and even when built they could be vulnerable to stoppage and political blackmail anytime by countries through which they pass. 2- The Saudi East-West pipeline is claimed to be capable of carrying up to 7 million barrels a day (mbd) but the maximum it carried during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 4.5 mbd on average. The reason is that Saudi Arabia doesn't have the ability to export 7.0 mbd because of fast-depleting reserves in its giant oilfields. 3- Moreover, the East-West pipeline is fed by oil from the Abqaiq pumping station and is loaded at the oil terminal of Yanbu on the Red Sea both of which are vulnerable to attacks and blockade by the Houthis. 4- Like wise, the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline is also vulnerable to disruption of the Fujairah terminal. 5- Even when these pipelines are operating normally, the can only carry 6.7 mbd leaving 13.7mbd needing to pass the Strait of Hormuz. 6- Qatar's annual exports of 77 million tons or 20% of global LNG supplies can only reach world markets via the Strait. Dr Mamdouh G Salameh International Oil Economist Global Energy Expert