curiously Trump provides the wild card. I also think that the iranian government is also looking for an internal political resolution as well.
The possibility of a true peace emerging is real here and would be so welcome.
Mother Of All 'Ifs': Trump Officials Claim Iran Deal Delivers Peace, Inspections & Hormuz Reopening; Iran Says Indeed 'Close'
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 - 01:30 PM
SummaryAraghchi: A deal, if reached, will be signed remotely by both sides and then announced.
The UAE had agreed to release a total of $10b, more than $3b of which had already been delivered (Reuters).
Bloomberg latest: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.
Pakistan PM Sharif: "we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached & Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps."
Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides "have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course."
Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran's version of MoU terms (below): "What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth."
Tehran: "Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz."
CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of 'Islamabad Declaration' as soon as Sunday or next week.US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
* * *
UAE Ready to Unlock Billions for Iran as US Deal Gets Closer
There's been much more movement on a final MoU revealed today that previosly. Now Reuters is reporting on potentially unlocked Iranian funds, in order to get a negotiations format back to the direct negotiating table, to hammer out a final peace deal.
The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, Reuters reports, citing four sources:The UAE had agreed to release a total of $10b, more than $3b of which had already been delivered
Two other sources with knowledge of the arrangement tell Reuters the move put the total funds involved at $20b
Reuters could not establish whether the funds earmarked for the transfers belong to the UAE or originate in long-blocked Iranian accounts in the UAE banking system, or elsewhere
“The UAE’s foreign policy is guided by promoting de-escalation and reducing tensions across the region, while advancing lasting peace and stability, a UAE official tells Reuters. “The UAE supports efforts, including those undertaken by the United States, to protect the peoples of the region from the repercussions of conflict”
Trump Admin Official: Imminent Deal Accomplishes Core US Objectives
Bloomberg is out with some specifics, via an unnamed Trump admin official, providing some further texture to what seems the most 'hopeful' (emphasis on the tick marks) development concerning a finalized Memorandum of Understanding to end the war and hash out a final deal...
It remains that there are a healthy dose of ifs in here...
BBG: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz [Iran has a very different interpretation of this point]; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.If Iran complies, will be rewarded economically.
Benefits for Iran accrue if they actually deliver.
US expects to sign agreement overt next few days.
US to get enriched material under Iran deal.
Draft agreement also lifts US blockade and leads to dismantlement of Iran nuclear programme.
Iranians don't get anything upon signing agreement.
Not quite at finish line yet, but very close.
80-85% confident a deal gets signed.
Iran deal is specific about opening Strait and lifting of blockade and moving of enriched material.
Will be significant sanctions relief based on how Iran performs.
US seen substantial progress in text of agreement.
Regional peace agreement is broad.
Agreement on specificity over destruction and removal of enriched material.
Confident Israelis will get on board.
Some Iranians don't love this deal, but think dissent is quite minimal.
Vice President JD Vance has sought to clarify the US position:
Iran is "not receiving any cash" just for signing a deal, Vice President JD Vance said Friday.
Vance said in a post on X that he was "seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal."
"The Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting," he said, adding that the agreement on the table had been structured, "to ensure that the U.S. and its allies' concerns are prioritized."
Only if Iran "meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region."
"This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace," he said. "The president is going to get us a good outcome, one way or the other."
As a reminder, here are the 14-points issued by the Iranian side on Friday:
1. An immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. A commitment by Washington not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty.
3. A complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days.
4. A commitment by the United States to withdraw its forces from the vicinity of Iran.
5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, according to Iranian arrangements.
6. The suspension of sanctions imposed on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, while enabling Iran full access to the financial resources generated from them.
7. The necessity of presenting reconstruction plans for Iran valued at no less than $300 billion by the United States and its allies.
8. Conducting negotiations within a 60-day period to reach a final agreement that includes nuclear issues, the full lifting of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as the cancellation of resolutions by the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
9. Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. A U.S. commitment, during the negotiation period, not to increase its forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions on Iran.
11. The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds within 60 days, with half of this amount made available to Iran before the start of negotiations and after signing the memorandum of understanding.
12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
13. The approval of the final agreement through a resolution issued by the UN Security Council.
14. Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of the frozen Iranian funds, the suspension of oil sanctions on Iran, and the lifting of the maritime blockade.
The final agreement shall be limited to the fate of enriched materials, uranium enrichment activities, the lifting of sanctions, and the reconstruction program of the Iranian economy, while excluding any discussion of Iran’s missile program and support for resistance movements from the agenda entirely.
There's clearly still some seriously daylight between the warring sides, however, so by close of the weekend - or possibly just within the next hours - the reality of the situation is likely to be made known. Via newswires:
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Says Iran's decision-making bodies are meeting about the memorandum - State TV.
IRAN CIVILIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ACCEPTABLE: US OFFICIAL
Pakistan PM: Final MoU Text Has Been Reached
Pakistan Chimes In with PM Sharif declaring that "we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps." Oil drops lower.
SHARIF: FINAL, AGREED UPON TEXT OF PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED
PRESIDENT TRUMP TOLD ME IN A SHORT CALL THAT HE CONSIDERED IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI'S POST "VERY POSITIVE" - AXIOS REPORTER
Amid ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and…— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) June 12, 2026
Something Actually New Under the Sun
Now this is a true first: President Trump sharing FM Arachchi's tweet...
First Time Iran Pushes Positive 'Closer Than Ever' To Deal Statement, Oil Drops
Amid the constant back and forth yo-yo and ping pong concerning how close or not a final MoD between Tehran and Washington is, now Tehran is pushing the "never been closer" rhetoric, which is somewhat of a surprise given Trump just called their own public '14-points' "fake news" in terms of US agreement to it.
But this is the first time in a long while that the Iranian side has side anything positive on the question of reaching a deal, and getting back to a direct negotiating framework. The country's top diplomat has just stated that the warring sides have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.
After crude jumped on Trump's 'fake news' Truth Social (below, which indicated he had not accepted many key Iranian demands), oil pushed back down on the new Araghchi statement:
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