Top Self Driving System Analyst Amazed by Tesla 12.5.2.1 Starting to Go Beyond Human Driving

It seems like we are finally there.  It of course, took far longer than anyone imagined but then it does end and the payoff is real.

sooner or later auto drive will become global..

no one will actually drive anymore because it is super safe.  Added in the rise of 3D traffic and it all will become safer.

All good.

Top Self Driving System Analyst Amazed by Tesla 12.5.2.1 Starting to Go Beyond Human Driving

September 22, 2024 by Brian Wang

After months with FSD 12, I’ve gone past the “wow, this is magic” phase. The analyst in me scrutinizes every disengagement and edge case. But today, I just had one of those “tears in my eyes” moments.

On a mini road trip, FSD 12.5.2.1 flawlessly handled the winding roads that have always been my worst nightmare. Literally no human I know could’ve done better. Perfectly centered, smooth turns, ideal speed. For two hours, the driver was completely relaxed, finished breakfast, and even the most carsick passenger played on their phone—zero disengagements, perfectly smooth. It passed the “coffee cup test”.

Achieving AGI in self-driving is one of the toughest challenges out there, but with 3 trillion miles driven annually and 12 hours per week behind the wheel, it’s poised to be one of humanity’s greatest unlocks. We’re talking trillion-dollar disruptions that no one’s fully grasping yet—reshaping cities, real estate, traffic, and car ownership!

Every step forward gets us closer to that future we all deserve.

And today, I felt it.

Previous Testing of China and US Self Driving

In July, 2024, Freda ust finished a one-week trip to China. She survived all the major (~20) L2 self-driving and robotaxi vehicles in both the US and China. Some thoughts & observations:

Freda Duan, Altimeter Capital, tested major brands like $Huawei, $Li, $NIO, $Xpeng, and $Xiaomi. Overall, they exceeded my expectations. The rides were not overly cautious and handled complex situations (yes, road conditions in China are very challenging!) quite well.

Nothing compares to $Tsla’s approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining).

Chinese EVs’ self-driving capabilities are far ahead of those from US and EU brands.

I doubt any Chinese players can profit from L2 self-driving, not because it’s not useful, but because it’s hard to differentiate, and price wars dominate the market in China.

Chinese consumers and regulators seem much more receptive to self-driving. Even with a 5/10 self-driving capability, cars are practically *hands-free(!)*

Insurance-wise, for L3+ cars, OEMs bear responsibility for incidents, so OEMs avoid labeling cars as L3+.