Canada Added 5 Million People in 5 Years. Should the US Care?

This is a large shift and very real.    The big change is the expansion of the Toronto mega complex to plus 10,000,000. ultimately surpassing Chicago.  Geographically this follows up from Hamilton along the Lake Shore.

This has had little impact out in the rural areas although even there we have growth.

understand that industrial agriculture has led to rural depopulation for the last half century.  The Covid shift has helped restock the rural housing stock somewhat.  

I anticipate that populations will now be attracted to this environment.

Canada Added 5 Million People in 5 Years. Should the US Care?

September 11, 2024 by Brian Wang

Canada added about 5 million people in 5 years and will pass 42 million people shortly. The pace of Canada’s immigration and acceptance of new people is running at 1.4 to 1.5 million people each year for the past 2 years.The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard

The new people are not yet contributing fully to the economy.

For 2025, Canada is projected to be the fastest growing economy among the G7 and other advanced economies. Canada’s currently about tied with Italy for 6th largest G7 economy. Over the next 15-25 years. Canada could pass France, UK and Japan and Germany. Germany passed Japan .

Doubling GDP inflation adjusted and relative to the other countries by 2040s is possible and only slightly ahead of a stated target to reach by 2050. If the other countries stagnate, which is possible then a relative doubling puts Canada near the top of the global rankings.

The new people go to the cities so it is urban growth. This will and is transforming the major cities in Canada. Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton. In some cases doubling population in a generation.

Canada with 70 million people in 20 years would mean the Toronto metro area would have 20-25 million people and would be larger than the New York metro area. Montreal could have about 8 million and edge ahead all but five us metro areas. Vancouver could get into top 10.

If the planned economic targets don’t happen then it still reshapes North America and possibly geopolitics. Mexico could have fairly strong gdp growth. The US sidekicks could each become bigger then UK or even Germany. Combined they could become 40% of the US economy and 66% of the EU GDP without the UK.

IF the addition of 30 million people over 20 years does not work out then the 122,000 Canadians that emigrated to the US in 2022 could increase to 500,000 per year. Doubling the population would mean all flows would double if everything stays relatively the same. If things do not work out as well then the percentage moving could also double or more beyond just tracking to population.

Today, Canada’s GDP is about the level of Italy and Mexico GDP is about the level of Spain. Strong economic performance in both Canada and Mexico could see Canada move past Germany in 2050 and Mexico up to the level of France.

The US has almost $29 trillion in GDP now. Canada and Mexico combined are $3.7 trillion or about 12% of the USA.

North America has 510 million people and almost $32.7 trillion in GDP.

Canada and Mexico could combine to be about 20-25% US GDP in 2050.

Today, Canada and Mexico are about 173 million people. This is just over half of the US population. In 2050, the combined populations could be about 220 million (70 million Canada and 150 million Mexico). In 2050, the US will have about 370 million people. Canada and Mexico combined population would be around 59-60% of the US level.

In 2050, North America could have 590 million people and a GDP in today’s dollars of $53 trillion. The US could have $44 trillion and Canada and Mexico about $9 trillion.

Canada’s aggressive immigration policies will impact the US if it works or if it does not. Mexico problems have also been US problems. Mexico’s gains have been US gains.