What Disaster Happened? 2200, The World Only Has 250 Million People

folks are finally beginning to work out the real world consequenses of a low population growth, or put more correctly the real world consequenses of actual contraction. I have been posting about this even when the only commentary was about the population explosion.

Public consciousness has yet to hit the emergency button and that may well not happen if Japan is any example.  governments, if they wish to survive now have to impliment a completely new protocol.  

It is my thought that we need from 18 to 24, mandatory production of four births, but not necessarily mandatory motherhood as this needs to be natural  community supported at least.  This obviously overrides a whole bunch of custom and custom can be partially integrated but we will see new custom also established while this whole is properly financed as well.  Again it is best done through the natural community build.

Again it will be mandatory, just like the military draft and for the same reason.  Male draft also needs to be concurrent in order to fitness and skill levels.  I grew up on a nineteenth century farm and learned rough carpentry, safe electrical wiring, and basic plumbing and things like welding and metal working were not out of reach.  my point is that all of this could have been better taught to make me proficient.

women will also want to do most of this.  My only issue is that four pregnacies will mean non rigid timing.

The military does all of this in a cycle of basic training, perhaps a redo, and then core traing to bring skills up.  

There will still be the academic stream, but we need to up our game there with far better tuning. most folks need to come out the shoot with ample physical skills as well as academic skills and how about actual mastery? A b is good enough, but teaching the material makes that an A.  That is the true quality problem with our edfucation system.  B Students need to be teaching that course next semester.

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What Disaster Happened? 2200, The World Only Has 250 Million People

July 21, 2023 by Brian Wang

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/07/what-disaster-happened-2200-the-world-only-has-250-million-people.html

It is the year 2200 and the world has 250 million people. What has happened? Was there a total nuclear war and followed by a famine? Was there a terrible super-pandemic? How can the world have fallen from over 8.1 billion people in 2023 to 250 million. How can there be only 3% of the world population? Perhaps, artificial super intelligence was created and it nearly wiped out humanity.

This is what happens if all countries have a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less. This is the situation in South Korea and Taiwan. Falling below replacement levels of 2.1 means that the average women no longer has an average of 1 daughter. If fertility rates go to 1.0 or less that means the total of all women have half of a daughter. This means the next generation (30 years later) has half as many fertile women. In 60 years there are 25% as many fertile women and in 90 years there are 12.5% as many fertile women.

Almost 80% of the population of the world is below replacement. This includes India and Bangladesh, which are very poor countries. Japan fell below replacement in 1976 and in 2008 its population began shrinking. This was in spite of having among the longest life expectancy in the world at over 80 years. Continued population growth is from the momentum of previous higher birth rates increasing the pool of women who have chosen not to fully replace themselves. Dropping staying below is replacement starts a ticking clock. 30-40 years until the population starts shrinking. 20-30 years after that and the population collapse gets very brutal. No country has fallen below replacement for over 5 years and come back to above replacement.

Find more statistics at Statista

China’s population is shrinking. China had the one child policy, so its population pyramid age distribution is already terrible. China had less than 10 million births in a year. If 10 million births per year was sustained then if people lived 80 years, you would head to a population of 800 million. However, the 5 million girls born last year in China could continue the trend of 1.18 TFR. They each have less than 0.6 daughters. In 2050s, the 5 million girls get replaced with 3 million girls. China could fall to 1.1 billion people in 2050 and 400 million people in 2100. Those 400 million people would mostly be old. China would have about 30-40 million fertile women in 2100.

China, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Italy all have shrinking populations. This means over 20% of the world population is already shrinking.

Demand for housing has been down in Japan for decades. The average value of real estate is less than half what it was in the 1980s and 1990s. People assumed that real estate prices always rise. This is the case with rising population and rising demand. Falling population means falling demand for everything. An Aging population makes this worse. People buy houses and major items be the time they are fifty, then they save and spend less. Japan’s per capita income is now less than half of the per capita income in the USA. Japan used to be at 70% of US per capital income. Japan has 10 million empty houses.

No country has a fully paid in national retirement system. This kind of retirement system means that you put in all of your retirement savings into your own account and then fully live off of those funds. The Japan and US pension systems involve having a guarantee based upon taking a portion of annual tax revenue and then distributing it to the people old enough to qualify. This works fine when we have 3 or more working age person for each retired person. We can tax 25% of income and get 75% of one persons salary. Give one third or half to one pensioner. They have enough to live (not well but enough at a modest level). Japan is heading to one working age person for each pensioner and China could head to one working age person for two pensioners. One child for two parents. If government taxes the one person 30%, they would have to give it all to the pensioner and have no money for any other government and the pensioners would not have enough.

The banks of the world and economies would collapse as the population ages and collapses.

People can make excuses about it. Well of course it is too expensive to have kids. Women need to have their careers. It does not matter. If the world not solving this issue means 250 million people in 2200 and ruined economies in 2035 and beyond. The world should not stop in 2200, if you run it forward from there then it could get to 50 million in 2400. NOTE: if there was super antiaging tech which did not extend fertility it would just mean more people alive who were 80+ years old.

Sweden and Denmark have some of the most aggressive pro-baby and pro-family policies in the world. Sweden brought the fertility rate up from 1.55 back up to 1.83. This is still below 2.1 so it slows down the decline. All of these policies need to be adopted and enhanced but they are not enough.

The world has armies of men in national armies to defend each country. They want to prevent another country from killing people in their country. There needs to be an army of surrogate women who are paid the wages of soldiers to defend the future of each country.

If the rich women in Shanghai will disregard an offer of $25000 to have a child, then a poor women from the rural areas of China could be willing to have the frozen eggs of that women in Shanghai. NOTE: the reality is that the leadership in China wants the high class and educated urban women to have children. 100 million rural women could be paid to have an extra 100 million babies each decade. This would make up the shortage of babies in China. This would be $2.5 trillion over a decade and another $2.5 trillion for extra childcare support. China’s military budget is $224 billion in 2023 and increasing by about 10% each year. It would be about $2.5 trillion over the 2020s. Population birth shortage mitigation needs to be at the level of current annual defense budgets or even beyond. NOTE: the costs get worse if the shortage of birth persists for decades. If you could not convince them to have 2 kids then how do you convince them to have 4?

Egg freezing and in vitro fertilization works. Surrogate birthing works. These things are done at about a million per year already. They work at something near the necessary scale. There is no functional artificial womb technology. This is too important and urgent to chance it on possible technology. There could also be aging reversal that extends life and extends the maximum age of fertility up to 60 or 80 or more. However, this does not exist yet and may not exist.

Japan and other countries would do the mass surrogate plan as well. Some advanced countries who can attract immigrants could use a clause requiring two children surrogacy or four natural children as a condition of immigration. There is only 10 million total immigrants per year globally and only 4 million net total immigrants.

We will see how this plays out for Japan, China and South Korea over the next two or three decades. What happens to Japans economy as they go from 122 million people to 100 million people in 2050 while at the same time the median age goes from 48 to 55? What happens to China’s economy as they go from 1.4 billion people to 1.1 billion and the age goes from 38 to 53. What happens to the globally important banks in those countries? What happens to the world banking system?

Japan’s economy was flat at 5 trillion from 1999 to 2023. Does Japan’s economy drop to 4 trillion or 3 trillion with the 20% drop in population and 40% drop in working age population? Japan has shown and is showing that a shrinking aging population means a terrible economy.

China’s economy has been heavily real estate dependent.

A PBoC survey of urban households conducted in 2019 revealed that the value of housing composed 59 percent of households’ total assets, while mortgage loans stood at 12 percent of total assets. Kenneth Rogoff estimated that the real estate sector and associated activities accounted for 29 percent of China’s GDP, comparable to both Ireland and Spain before the global financial crisis. A CaixiaBank report estimated that the real estate industry accounted for about 30 percent of China’s GDP after considering the whole supply chain and its inputs.

If China real estate market halves like Japan’s real estate, then that alone would be a 15% hit to GDP. If this was combined with 40% drop in the working age population, then what happens to the economy. What would $10-15 trillion annual hit to global GDP do to the world economy?

This can be financially offset if there is an AI, self driving and humanoid robotics economics miracle. China can continue urbanization from 65% to 85% over the next 15-20 years. We need to have children to give a good future world to the children. It is a huge problem if we do not even make the children to give the world.