Thursday, August 13, 2020

OVID-19 Is Accelerating the Destruction of the Old University Models



High time of course. And yes the leap to online teaching is a welcome innovation.  Yet now happens to be the time to completely re engineer the whole enterprise of education.  Is this asking too much?

Too start with most of our course work can be taught online usually in concert with local seminars led by an advanced student who has achived a high mark on this course and will now get a masters certificate for helping guide other students.  Thus everyone is participating in the process of refining their knowledge and skills.

Way more important the course material can be presented by the best dozen or so teachers of the subject in the country.  The best always inspire and bend your brain as well which wonderfully supports your seminar work.  Technically no one should fail if they were good enough to advance..

That is a very different atmosphere.  We can also integrate this with natural communities as well with real light duty four hour sessions that assist in maintaining fitness and social well being.  All this is highly encouraging to those unable to make the grade for a desired course as well.

It is a massive flaw in our system that we lose sixty percent of our students in the first year.  It is also stupid.  Now the bane of unlimited government largese has feather bedded hte whole admin infrastructure.  It is called financial engineering and two generations.

We can lose it all.  The product is course work and sucessful students who continue to advance in knowledge and skill.  We need to fall out of love with paying for degtrees with C and Ds.  We need to redo courses because we like the subject and want a better result. Demand that a masters certificate is the necesaary objective.

Real mastery of first Year Math, Physics, chemistry, English et al demand also passing that exam and then teaching a seminar with the next available course.  You are watching two similar lectures and then guiding a discussion with a group of engaged students.  No one can skip this expereince if that is the rule.  Your students also judge your imput as well.

I mastered Tensor analysis by a first course which lit up for me two days before the exam, followed by an equivalent course under Mishra during the second term and followed that the next year with another course on General Relativity, as well as a pure math course on Differentual Geometry and the available 900 level course on Relativity with Rund.  

My point is that was ample repetition which gave me a broad mastery of both the material and the Mathematics.  It takes a lot less to achieve real mastery for most course material, but those two key steps are powerfully indicated as really necessaary, while allowing one pass just to achieve awareness of scope.  I did just that with English and Chemistry.

This path is different but is emmenently flexible.  I need to see master machinsts upgrade naturally into engineering or all that..  ..



COVID-19 Is Accelerating the Destruction of the Old University Models


August 10, 2020 


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The USA has almost 19 million college students. There are about 1.5 million faculty in degree-granting postsecondary institutions. Most US colleges are re-opening because they would go bankrupt if they did not have classes and students are not willing to pay up to $60,000 per year for video classes.

This article will review the following:
* COVID-19 potential deaths due to re-opening universities
* Financial risks by sticking with online classes and bankruptcies
* Online education and excessive tuition already put 50% of US Universities at risk of bankruptcy and now COVID-19 will accelerate shifting to online and popping the tuition financial bubble
* Taiwan’s College Campus safety protocols
* Predictions and Suggestions about the future of education

In Nature, researchers analyzed data from the United Kingdom’s National Health Service on 17,278,392 adults who were tracked for three months. The COVID-19 mortality risk for those aged 18-39 is 0.06% in the UK.




There is also up to twice the risk for those who are extremely overweight. This would mean that the risk of death from COVID-19 is higher for Americans as Americans has a higher percentage of people who are overweight than the British.

For simplicity let us assume that the COVID-19 mortality risk for those aged 18-39 (college age) is 0.1% in the Us.

If an additional 30% of US University students contracted COVID-19 by attending in-person classes then this would be 6000 deaths.

COVID-19 risks increase with age. Older professors and staff at Universities would be at far higher risk for death from COVID-19 if they were to go in person for their duties. If their collective risk was 1%, then the 1.5 million faculty would see 4,500 deaths if there were 30% of them that got COVID-19.

In July, 117 students at University of Washington fraternities had tested positive for COVID-19 since late June. 15 of 144 Frat houses had an outbreak. There are a total of 3500 students in the University of Washington fraternities.

Over 33% of US Universities and Colleges Already Had Weak Finances

More than a third of the 937 private universities examined by Edmit are in low financial health. They were likely to run out of money within six years. This doubled from two years ago. If those financially weak US universities or even financially stronger universities did not get their full fall tuitions then finances would rapidly worsen. In May, MacMurray College in Illinois closed after 174 years.

Many first-year US Students are deferring the start of University. There is massive drop in international students.

There was already a move to online education and video conferencing classes have not justifying the sky-high tuition.
Some UK Universities are Facing Bankruptcy due to the Pandemic


Long-run losses could come in anywhere between £3 billion (7%) and £19 billion (50%) of the sector’s overall income in one year. The central estimate of total long-run losses is £11 billion or more than a quarter of income in one year.

The biggest losses will likely stem from falls in international student enrollments (between £1.4 billion and £4.3 billion, with a central estimate of £2.8 billion) and increases in the deficits of university-sponsored pension schemes, which universities will eventually need to cover (up to £7.6 billion, with a central estimate of £3.8 billion)

Infection with COVID-19 can have debilitating long-term consequences, including lung disease, heart problems, brain damage, and mental health problems. There could be other unknown longterm COVID-19 effects.

Taiwan’s College Campus COVID-19 Safety Protocols

Taiwan’s Ministry of Education has national strategy for college campuses. The strategy included an initial quarantine, frequent testing of all students, sanitation, masks, distancing, reduction of student density, cleaning of dorms twice daily with bleach, and allowing only one student per dining table. It also included mandatory quarantine for anyone exposed, and infection-number thresholds at which an entire university would shut down. Taiwan has had only 480 cases in a country with a population of 24 million. Taiwan whole country only has 4 times more COVID-19 than 3500 students in University of Washington Fraternities.
Higher Education Predictions and Suggestions

COVID-19 is forcing a re-examination of how education should be delivered and it has brought forward the looming tuition crisis and the multiple financial problems.

Large COVID-19 outbreaks will occur at re-opened Universities. There will be forced closings and shifts back to online and video classes in many places.



Scott Galloway talks about massively increasing the capacity at US universities. Half of the classes would be fine being online. Using the extra capacity to double the number of accepted students.

US Universities will need to adjust hygiene to adjust to the pandemic, increase capacity, lower costs for students, update with online education to lower costs and to use classroom teaching where it adds value.

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