Saturday, March 28, 2020

Emergency! Narrow the recovery curve


Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 27 March 2020

I am becoming seriously annoyed by the ongoing outright censorship of  actual data.  Why is this none of our busiuness?  Thinking that China has no more to report is nonsense.  What has happened in Italy during the past several days?

So far testing has uncovered 500,000 cases.  It also appears that those tested will produce a real death rate around ten percent.  That strongly suggests that 4,500,000 are sick but not tested if the one percent holds up.


This certainly works for China where the numbers locked down support  the much larger figure.

Right now i want to hear that the numbers are in decline in Italy and Spain since both wrong footed the whole process and got swept by the virus.  That of course alerted the rest of us and the fight was on.

We cannot rely on China for the truth and now we are getting crikets from the EU.  why?

The new cases from Italy appears to have leveled off over the past five days.  The number of critically ill may also have leveled off.  This is good news and now gives us a real break point.  Break point for thge USA has to be about two weeks out at most.


.
Emergency!



Narrow the recovery curve
  • The CODVID-19 crisis is not an opportunity for partisan advantage.  STOP IT!
  • One-size-fits-all edicts are what we issue at the first moment of emergency.  We must do better moving forward.
  • We're in the digital age.  Information is power.  Use it.
  • Not all activities operate at the same level of risk.  Assess them individually and phase them back on as quickly as reasonable.
  • State-wide orders are inefficient.  Rural and desert counties in California with little exposure, for instance, shouldn't receive the same mandates as dense urban areas.  Fine tune.
  • Slash bureaucratic red tape and remove unnecessary obstacles to working in novel ways.
  • Remove disincentives and create no new disincentives to hiring Americans and producing goods here.
  • Tailor safety procedures to allow businesses to resume functioning.
  • Set aside unneeded regulations.
  • Keep emergency programs temporary.  Make long-term policy changes through normal due process.
  • Phase activity back on as the virus threat diminishes.
  • Phase activity back on if, sadly, the virus becomes widespread and social distancing is no longer effective.
  • Government is vital, but inefficient.  Enable the private sector to provide solutions.
  • Harness today's data-driven economy to replace blanket shutdowns with a mosaic of safe activity.
  • Be kind, caring, compassionate, appreciative, polite and helpful to others.
Craig Rucker
President

Friend,

There are three key letters everyone needs to focus on. 

They are V, U, and L.  These are the common shapes economic recoveries take.

A V shaped recovery is ideal.  It means bounce right back.  This is where we should aim, but if we don't get the economy functioning fast, the opportunity will be lost. 

A U shaped recovery means a reasonable period of loss, followed by growth.  This is more common, but second best.  If we let this scenario slip from our grasp... heaven help us.

An L shaped recovery is the wolf now stalking us.  It means drop down and stay down, with suffering over a prolonged period.  We're talking stagnation -- Japan's lost decade -- if we're lucky.  It means long-term bread lines, brother can you spare a dime, shanty town, 1930s great depression, if we're not. 

We've worked together to flatten the virus transmission curve and enable our medical system to cope.

Well done.

We hope these efforts stem the loss of life and the burden on our nurses, hospitals, and doctors.  To all those who have lost someone, or are concerned about their health, or the well-being of a loved one, our prayers are with you.




We must work together now to narrow the economic recovery curve.

With huge portions of our economy shut down, markets are crashing. 

How could they not?

If we don't get the economy functioning we will all learn a terrible lesson in what "unsustainable" actually means.

Trillions of dollars in bailouts and stimulants will quickly be consumed, vanish and be  wasted, unless markets are permitted to function and the economic motor to run. 

The good news is that if we're smart, we are better equipped to harness the productive power of our free market, and safely phase economic activity back on, than we've ever been before.
If we don't enable economic recovery to get moving, the resulting harm will exceed the harm from the virus.

Time to be smart.  Fast.



Situation update worldwide, as of 27 March 2020


Epidemiological update


The data presented on this page has been collected between 6:00 and 10:00 CET

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 27 March 2020, 528 025 cases of COVID-19 (in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in the affected countries) have been reported, including 23 672 deaths.
The deaths have been reported from: Italy (8 165), Spain (4 089), China (3 298), Iran (2 234), France (1 696), United States (1 296), United Kingdom (578), Netherlands (434), Germany (253), Belgium (220), Switzerland (161), South Korea (139), Indonesia (78), Brazil (77), Turkey (75), Sweden (66), Portugal (60), Austria (52), Japan (46), Philippines (45), Denmark (41), Canada (39), Iraq (36), Ecuador (34), Greece (26), Malaysia (23), Algeria (21), Egypt (21), San Marino (21), Ireland (19), India (17), Romania (17), Poland (16), Norway (14), Australia (13), Argentina (12), Dominican Republic (10), Hungary (10), Morocco (10), Czech Republic (9), Luxembourg (9), Pakistan (9), Panama (9), Peru (9), Israel (8), Mexico (8), International conveyance in Japan (7), Albania (6), Colombia (6), Lebanon (6), Bangladesh (5), Slovenia (5), Thailand (5), Tunisia (5), Ukraine (5), Bahrain (4), Chile (4), Democratic Republic of the Congo (4), Finland (4), Lithuania (4), Andorra (3), Azerbaijan (3), Bosnia and Herzegovina (3), Bulgaria (3), Burkina Faso (3), Cyprus (3), Ghana (3), North Macedonia (3), Paraguay (3), Saudi Arabia (3), Serbia (3), Costa Rica (2), Croatia (2), Cuba (2), Iceland (2), Mauritius (2), Russia (2), Singapore (2), South Africa (2), Taiwan (2), United Arab Emirates (2), Afghanistan (1), Armenia (1), Cameroon (1), Cape Verde (1), Cayman Islands (1), Curaçao (1), Estonia (1), Gabon (1), Gambia (1), Guam (1), Guatemala (1), Guyana (1), Honduras (1), Jamaica (1), Jersey (1), Kenya (1), Kosovo** (1), Moldova (1), Montenegro (1), Niger (1), Nigeria (1), Palestine* (1), Sudan (1), Trinidad and Tobago (1), Venezuela (1) and Zimbabwe (1).
Cases have been reported on the following continents:
Africa: South Africa (927), Egypt (456), Algeria (305), Morocco (275), Tunisia (173), Burkina Faso (146), Ghana (132), Senegal (105), Côte d’Ivoire (96), Cameroon (88), Nigeria (65), Democratic Republic of the Congo (54), Rwanda (50), Kenya (31), Togo (24), Madagascar (23), Djibouti (18), Uganda (14), Zambia (14), United Republic of Tanzania (13), Equatorial Guinea (12), Ethiopia (12), Niger (10), Namibia (8), Gabon (7), Mozambique (7), Seychelles (7), Benin (6), Eritrea (6), Eswatini (6), Cape Verde (5), Central African Republic (5), Chad (5), Guinea (5), Congo (4), Mali (4), Angola (3), Gambia (3), Liberia (3), Mauritania (3), Sudan (3), Zimbabwe (3), Guinea-Bissau (2), Somalia (2) and Libya (1).
Asia: China (82 079), Iran (29 406), South Korea (9 332), Turkey (3 629), Israel (2 666), Malaysia (2 031), Japan (1 364), Pakistan (1 197), Thailand (1 136), Saudi Arabia (1 012), Indonesia (893), India (724), Philippines (707), Singapore (594), Qatar (549), Bahrain (458), Iraq (382), Lebanon (368), United Arab Emirates (333), Taiwan (252), Kuwait (208), Jordan (172), Vietnam (153), Kazakhstan (120), Brunei Darussalam (114), Oman (109), Sri Lanka (106), Cambodia (98), Palestine* (84), Uzbekistan (83), Mauritius (81), Afghanistan (75), Bangladesh (48), Kyrgyzstan (44), Maldives (13), Mongolia (11), Laos (6), Myanmar (5), Syria (5), Bhutan (3), Nepal (3) and Timor-Leste (1).
America: United States (85 991), Canada (4 018), Brazil (2 915), Ecuador (1 403), Chile (1 306), Panama (674), Argentina (589), Mexico (585), Peru (580), Colombia (491), Dominican Republic (488), Uruguay (238), Costa Rica (231), Venezuela (107), Cuba (67), Honduras (67), Trinidad and Tobago (65), Bolivia (61), Paraguay (52), Aruba (28), Jamaica (26), Guatemala (25), Barbados (24), United States Virgin Islands (17), Bermuda (15), El Salvador (13), Dominica (11), Bahamas (9), Haiti (8), Suriname (8), Antigua and Barbuda (7), Curaçao (7), Grenada (7), Cayman Islands (6), Greenland (6), Guyana (5), Montserrat (5), Saint Lucia (3), Anguilla (2), Belize (2), British Virgin Islands (2), Nicaragua (2), Saint Kitts and Nevis (2), Sint Maarten (2), Turks and Caicos Islands (2) and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (1).
Europe: Italy (80 539), Spain (56 188), Germany (42 288), France (29 155), United Kingdom (11 658), Switzerland (10 714), Netherlands (7 431), Austria (7 029), Belgium (6 235), Portugal (3 544), Norway (3 156), Sweden (2 806), Czech Republic (2 062), Denmark (1 877), Ireland (1 819), Luxembourg (1 453), Poland (1 221), Romania (1 029), Finland (958), Greece (892), Russia (840), Iceland (802), Slovenia (577), Estonia (538), Croatia (495), Serbia (384), Armenia (329), Hungary (300), Lithuania (299), Bulgaria (264), Latvia (244), Slovakia (226), Andorra (224), San Marino (218), North Macedonia (201), Bosnia and Herzegovina (181), Moldova (177), Albania (174), Ukraine (156), Cyprus (146), Faroe Islands (140), Malta (134), Azerbaijan (122), Belarus (86), Georgia (79), Kosovo** (79), Montenegro (67), Liechtenstein (56), Gibraltar (35), Guernsey (34), Monaco (33), Jersey (32), Isle of Man (26) and Holy See (5).
Oceania: Australia (3 166), New Zealand (338), Guam (49), French Polynesia (30), New Caledonia (15), Fiji (5) and Papua New Guinea (1).
Other: International conveyance in Japan (696).
* This designation shall not be construed as recognition of a State of Palestine and is without prejudice to the individual positions of the Member States on this issue.
** This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244/1999 and the International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Download today’s data on the geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide

The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. Public-use data files allows users to manipulate the data in a format appropriate for their analyses. Users of ECDC public-use data files must comply with data use restrictions to ensure that the information will be used solely for statistical analysis or reporting purposes.

Epidemiological curves

These histograms are based on the available information at the time of publication, originating from several sources. Data completeness depends on the availability of information from the affected areas. All data should be interpreted with caution as the outbreak is evolving rapidly. In addition, due to the unavailability of date-of-onset data and different testing policies per country, this figure might not be reflective of the evolution of the epidemic.

Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 27 March 2020


Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 27 March 2020
 Distribution of cases of COVID-19 by continent (according to the applied case definition and testing strategies in the affected countries)
Cases reported in accordance with the applied case definition and testing strategies in the affected countries. The case definition in China (Hubei province) was updated on 13 and 20 February 2020

Distribution of COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, as of 27 March 2019


Distribution of COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, as of 27 March 2019
 Distribution of cases of COVID-19 deaths worldwide, by continent

Geographic distribution of COVID-19

Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 27 March 2020


Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 27 March 2020
 Geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases - worldwide
The boundaries and names indicated on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Geographic distribution of cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population, worldwide, as of 27 March 2020


Geographic distribution of cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population, worldwide, as of 27 March 2020
 Geographic distribution of cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population, worldwide
RegionsPlaces reporting casesSum of CasesSum of DeathsConfirmed cases in the last 15 days
AfricaAlgeria30521285
AfricaAngola303
AfricaBenin606
AfricaBurkina_Faso1463144
AfricaCameroon88186
AfricaCape_Verde515
AfricaCentral_African_Republic505
AfricaChad505
AfricaCongo404
AfricaCote_dIvoire96095
AfricaDemocratic_Republic_of_the_Congo54453
AfricaDjibouti18018
AfricaEgypt45621396
AfricaEquatorial_Guinea12012
AfricaEritrea606
AfricaEswatini606
AfricaEthiopia12012
AfricaGabon717
AfricaGambia313
AfricaGhana1323132
AfricaGuinea505
AfricaGuinea_Bissau202
AfricaKenya31131
AfricaLiberia303
AfricaLibya101
AfricaMadagascar23023
AfricaMali404
AfricaMauritania303
AfricaMorocco27510270
AfricaMozambique707
AfricaNamibia808
AfricaNiger10110
AfricaNigeria65163
AfricaRwanda50050
AfricaSenegal1050101
AfricaSeychelles707
AfricaSomalia202
AfricaSouth_Africa9272914
AfricaSudan313
AfricaTogo24023
AfricaTunisia1735166
AfricaUganda14014
AfricaUnited_Republic_of_Tanzania13013
AfricaZambia14014
AfricaZimbabwe313
AmericaAnguilla202
AmericaAntigua_and_Barbuda707
AmericaArgentina58912570
AmericaAruba28028
AmericaBahamas909
AmericaBarbados24024
AmericaBelize202
AmericaBermuda15015
AmericaBolivia61059
AmericaBrazil2915772863
AmericaBritish_Virgin_Islands202
AmericaCanada4018393915
AmericaCayman_Islands616
AmericaChile130641283
AmericaColombia4916482
AmericaCosta_Rica2312209
AmericaCuba67264
AmericaCuraçao717
AmericaDominica11011
AmericaDominican_Republic48810483
AmericaEcuador1403341386
AmericaEl_Salvador13013
AmericaGreenland606
AmericaGrenada707
AmericaGuatemala25125
AmericaGuyana515
AmericaHaiti808
AmericaHonduras67165
AmericaJamaica26124
AmericaMexico5858574
AmericaMontserrat505
AmericaNicaragua202
AmericaPanama6749660
AmericaParaguay52347
AmericaPeru5809563
AmericaSaint_Kitts_and_Nevis202
AmericaSaint_Lucia303
AmericaSaint_Vincent_and_the_Grenadines101
AmericaSint_Maarten201
AmericaSuriname808
AmericaTrinidad_and_Tobago65165
AmericaTurks_and_Caicos_islands202
AmericaUnited_States_of_America85991129684679
AmericaUnited_States_Virgin_Islands17017
AmericaUruguay2380238
AmericaVenezuela1071107
AsiaAfghanistan75168
AsiaBahrain4584296
AsiaBangladesh48545
AsiaBhutan302
AsiaBrunei_Darussalam1140103
AsiaCambodia98095
AsiaChina8207932981147
AsiaIndia72417651
AsiaIndonesia89378859
AsiaIran29406223420406
AsiaIraq38236312
AsiaIsrael266682584
AsiaJapan136446745
AsiaJordan1720171
AsiaKazakhstan1200120
AsiaKuwait2080136
AsiaKyrgyzstan44044
AsiaLaos606
AsiaLebanon3686307
AsiaMalaysia2031231882
AsiaMaldives1305
AsiaMauritius81281
AsiaMongolia11010
AsiaMyanmar505
AsiaNepal302
AsiaOman109091
AsiaPakistan119791177
AsiaPalestine84154
AsiaPhilippines70745658
AsiaQatar5490287
AsiaSaudi_Arabia10123967
AsiaSingapore5942416
AsiaSouth_Korea93321391463
AsiaSri_Lanka1060104
AsiaSyria505
AsiaTaiwan2522204
AsiaThailand113651066
AsiaTimor_Leste101
AsiaTurkey3629753628
AsiaUnited_Arab_Emirates3332259
AsiaUzbekistan83083
AsiaVietnam1530114
EuropeAlbania1746163
EuropeAndorra2243223
EuropeArmenia3291325
EuropeAustria7029526783
EuropeAzerbaijan1223109
EuropeBelarus86074
EuropeBelgium62352205921
EuropeBosnia_and_Herzegovina1813178
EuropeBulgaria2643257
EuropeCroatia4952479
EuropeCyprus1463140
EuropeCzech_Republic206291968
EuropeDenmark1877411361
EuropeEstonia5381522
EuropeFaroe_Islands1400140
EuropeFinland9584899
EuropeFrance29155169626874
EuropeGeorgia79055
EuropeGermany4228825340721
EuropeGibraltar35035
EuropeGreece89226793
EuropeGuernsey34034
EuropeHoly_See504
EuropeHungary30010287
EuropeIceland8022717
EuropeIreland1819191776
EuropeIsle_of_Man26026
EuropeItaly80539816568077
EuropeJersey32132
EuropeKosovo79179
EuropeLatvia2440234
EuropeLiechtenstein56053
EuropeLithuania2994296
EuropeLuxembourg145391446
EuropeMalta1340128
EuropeMoldova1771173
EuropeMonaco33032
EuropeMontenegro67167
EuropeNetherlands74314346928
EuropeNorth_Macedonia2013194
EuropeNorway3156142667
EuropePoland1221161190
EuropePortugal3544603485
EuropeRomania102917984
EuropeRussia8402815
EuropeSan_Marino21821152
EuropeSerbia3843366
EuropeSlovakia2260216
EuropeSlovenia5775520
EuropeSpain56188408954048
EuropeSweden2806662344
EuropeSwitzerland1071416110072
EuropeUkraine1565155
EuropeUnited_Kingdom1165857811202
OceaniaAustralia3166133040
OceaniaFiji505
OceaniaFrench_Polynesia30030
OceaniaGuam49149
OceaniaNew_Caledonia15015
OceaniaNew_Zealand3380333
OceaniaPapua_New_Guinea101
OtherCases_on_an_international_conveyance_Japan69670
Total52802523672401405


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