I finally understood something. Why real estate prices have failed to fully inflate in the USA. Yes we had a nasty crash that was poorly handled, but by now it is long handled.
My point is that cheap money which we have is normally reflected in pricing. To put it in perspective in 1980, a thousand dollar per month of mortgage would qualify you for a $100,000 shack at say 12%. It got much worse than that briefly. Now that same thousand dollars per month will plug you into a 500,000 or so shack. The slack has been moved over to land values.
All this has played out fully in Canada. It did not in the USA. As always, the market does know something and we have now a glimpse of that something.
Fortunately for everyone, Trump is the one man on Earth who really understands all this and is likely to develop a work out benefiting all home owners. Turns out that the bullit may have been larger than anyone ever imagined.
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"A Stealth Mortgage On Your House" - The Reality Of The Looming Pension Crisis
Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/stealth-mortgage-your-house-reality-looming-pension-crisis
Money manager Rob Arnott and finance professor Lisa Meulbroek have run the numbers on underfunded pension plans and come up with an interesting – and highly concerning – new angle: That they impose a “stealth mortgage” on homeowners. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reported it today:
And the pension crisis is actually much worse than Arnott’s and Meulbroek’s research implies, because they’re using peak-of-the-cycle numbers. When the next recession brings an equities bear market, pension plans will lose money, causing their underfunding to explode. So that 20% stealth mortgage is about to get even bigger.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/stealth-mortgage-your-house-reality-looming-pension-crisis
Money manager Rob Arnott and finance professor Lisa Meulbroek have run the numbers on underfunded pension plans and come up with an interesting – and highly concerning – new angle: That they impose a “stealth mortgage” on homeowners. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reported it today:
The Stealth Pension Mortgage on Your House
Most cities, counties and states have committed taxpayers to significant future unfunded spending. This mostly takes the form of pension and postretirement health-care obligations for public employees, a burden that averages $75,000 per household but exceeds $100,000 per household in some states. Many states protect public pensions in their constitutions, meaning they cannot be renegotiated. Future pension obligations simply must be paid, either through higher taxes or cuts to public services.
Is there a way out for taxpayers in states that are deep in the red? Milton Friedman famously observed that the only thing more mobile than the wealthy is their capital. Some residents may hope that they can avoid the pension crash by decamping to a more fiscally sound state.
But this escape may be illusory. State taxes are collected on four economic activities: consumption (sales tax), labor and investment (income tax) and real-estate ownership (property tax). The affluent can escape sales and income taxes by moving to a new state—but real estate stays behind. Property values must ultimately support the obligations that politicians have promised, even if those obligations aren’t properly funded, because real estate is the only source of state and local revenue that can’t pick up and move elsewhere. Whether or not unfunded obligations are paid with property taxes, it’s the property that backs the obligations in the end.
When property owners choose to sell and become tax refugees, they pass along the burden to the next owner. And buyers of properties in troubled states will demand lower prices if they expect property taxes to increase.
It doesn’t matter if we own or rent; landlords pass higher taxes on to tenants. Nor does it matter if properties are mortgaged to the hilt or owned outright. In time, unfunded pension obligations will be reflected in real-estate prices, if they aren’t already. A state’s unfunded liabilities are effectively a stealth mortgage on private property. Think you can pass your property on to your heirs? Only net of the unfunded pension obligations.
We calculated the ratio of unfunded pension obligations relative to property values in each state. We used 3% bond-market yields as our discount rate to measure unfunded obligations, because while other assets ostensibly earn a risk premium above the bond yield, these assets can also underperform.
Unfunded pension obligations range from a low of $30,000 per household of four in Tennessee to a high of $180,000 per household in Alaska. They amount to less than 11% of the average home values in Florida, Tennessee and Utah and more than 50% in Alaska, Mississippi and Ohio.
There are a few surprises. California, Hawaii and New York have large unfunded obligations, but because property in these states is so expensive, the average household burden is less than 15% of the average home price. Meanwhile, West Virginia and Iowa have relatively low pension debts—but the average household obligation is more than 30% of the average home price because property is far less expensive in these states.
On average nationwide, unfunded state and local pension burdens represent 20% of real-estate values. This ratio can rival or exceed an owner’s home equity, depending on the size of his mortgage. If real-estate prices adjust to reflect unfunded pension obligations, many homeowners’ equity could be at risk. As we’ve seen in Detroit, the public pension stealth mortgage can ultimately devastate the housing market.This is yet another confirmation that we’re not nearly as rich as we think we are. If your home is your biggest asset but a big part of your equity is secretly claimed by the local government, you don’t really own it. And if you’re counting on a public sector pension and home equity to finance your retirement you might be hit with a double whammy when your pension is cut (despite what the state constitution says, it will be cut one way or another) at the same time your property tax bill soars to protect what’s left of pension benefits.
And the pension crisis is actually much worse than Arnott’s and Meulbroek’s research implies, because they’re using peak-of-the-cycle numbers. When the next recession brings an equities bear market, pension plans will lose money, causing their underfunding to explode. So that 20% stealth mortgage is about to get even bigger.
Borrow-to-spend wealth generation:
ReplyDeleteBorrow a dollar.
Spend it into the GDP-producing economy.
That dollar bounced around at the velocity of money, counted as $1 in GDP each time.
The dollar borrowed is an IOU, AKA a BOND.
The bond is issued and is held, AS AN ASSET, on a balance sheet somewhere. There is no decrement to GDP for the debt.
So...borrow and spend a dollar, get TWO or more dollars in wealth. WOW! A perpetual motion machine, right?
In 1981 the US debt market bottomed its decades-long bear market. Interest rates began a 35 year decline as bond prices rose. The 1970's "Bond Vigilantes" went to sleep and holding long term debt was a guaranteed capital gains money maker for decade after decade. Bondholders couldn't get ENOUGH Bonds, so Congress learned it could shower the WORLD with guns and butter, paid for by issuing IOUs, and if a little of that loot was laundered back into congressional re-election campaign coffers.... (smile)
All that debt-created monetary demand caused any industry for which Uncle Sam was a major payer to EXPLODE higher. Medical Services led the way with vast, compound increases in costs and in well-paid employment. Ditto the "welfare services administration" gig, where NGO's proliferated like bedbugs.
At a reported $250 trillion now, one wonders what happens to capital value of IOU's in a rising-rate environment? Bond values FALL. But on the way up, the pool of bonds was small, so declining rates caused modest increases in capital value. Now a veritable OCEAN of bonds exists, so even small rises in rates cause VAST amounts of bond capital value to evaporate.
If rates break out (and they are simply a measure of collective trust, the province of mass psychology), we should see the largest deflationary debt collapse in history, where each and every one of those bonds represents a Future Cash Flow to someone, all of whom will largely get stiffed.
It should be catastrophically disruptive to economies and cause social strife.