Bah! We are only looking at the aspect of government expenditures and that is hardly the whole story. It is my contention that we need to correctly manage the lowest third of the population in such a manner that it becomes naturally self sustaining. This only illustrates what a lousy job we are presently doing.
After all if the bottom ten or twenty percent is automatically both self sustaining and advancing the general needs of society, then the rest will be booming. What we are doing is actually trivial but it consists of establishing a market bid protocol that is optimized as well rather than throwing money around wastefully.
Oh well.
Fiscal Impact of Whites, Blacks and Hispanics
Previously
I wrote an article that just looked at the net budgetary impact of
whites and non-whites. Here I decided to break down the black and
hispanic numbers as well.
The most recent year with good data on everything is 2014. So that is the year all of these numbers are from.
Before getting into the methods, I’ll first show the final impact of this so you can see what a big deal this is:
Budgetary Impact of Whites, Blacks and Hispanics in 2014
| Category | Equal Military | Static Military |
| Whites | $553.52 billion | $249.52 billion |
| White Per Capita | $2,795 | $1,260 |
| Blacks | -$389.71 billion | -$306.53 billion |
| Black Per Capita | -$10,016 | -$7,700 |
| Hispanics | -$411.95 billion | -$291.3 billion |
| Hispanic Per Capita | -$7,298 | -$5,160 |
This takes into account taxes paid and government services consumed at both the State and Federal level. The “Equal Military” column treats military spending as a service consumed equally on a per-capita basis between blacks, whites and hispanics. The “Static military” assigns all military spending to whites.
On net, whites generate a $249.52 billion surplus, or $1,260 per person
if you assign 100% of military spending to whites. If you just give
whites a proportional share of military spending, their surplus goes up
to $553.52 billion total and $2,795 per capita.
Blacks, by contrast, run a budget deficit of $389.71 billion, or $10,016 per capita. If 100% of military spending is assigned to whites, blacks STILL run a $306.53 billion deficit, or $7,700 per capita.
Hispanics run a budget deficit of $411.95 billion of $7,289 per capita if military spending is proportional. If 100% of military spending is assigned to whites hispanics run a deficit of $291.3 billion, or $5,160 per capita.
Race and Tax Revenue
So
regarding the methodology, I first looked in several places to figure
out how much each race paid in taxes, as the government doesn’t keep
such statistics. However, there are statistics collected by the tax
foundation showing how much each income bracket pays in taxes.
And
the census has data on income for each race and the proportion of
brackets they are. And so using this, we can deduce how much each racial
group pays in taxes:
Race and Tax Payment in 2014
| Bracket | % of taxes bracket pays | % of bracket is white | % of bracket is hispanic | % of bracket is black | % of taxes paid by whites-in-bracket | % of taxes paid by blacks-in-bracket | % of taxes paid by hispanics-in-bracket |
| Top 5% | 38.9 | 80.87 | 6.17 | 5.00 | 31.46 | 1.945 | 2.4001 |
| 6-20% | 25.4 | 77.72 | 7.80 | 7.48 | 19.74 | 1.8999 | 1.9812 |
| 21-40% | 18.3 | 73.65 | 10.70 | 8.91 | 13.48 | 1.6305 | 1.9581 |
| 41-60% | 9.9 | 68.3 | 12.68 | 13.76 | 6.76 | 1.3622 | 1.2553 |
| 61-80% | 5.1 | 63.01 | 17.89 | 16.67 | 3.21 | 0.8502 | 0.9124 |
| 81-100% | 2.1 | 57.41 | 16.23 | 21.25 | 1.21 | 0.4463 | 0.3408 |
| Total | 75.86 | 8.134 | 8.8479 |
This comes out to $4529.52 billion paid by whites, $528.30 billion paid by hispanics, and $485.67 billion paid by blacks.
Race and Government Use
So
how does that compare with services consumed? Well for Social Security,
Medicare, Medicaid and Welfare I was able to find racial breakdowns.
But what about state spending? Roads, schools, trash pick-up, police?
For all of that I lumped into “equal government” and assigned the cost
of it on a population basis.
Race and Government Use 2014
| Service | Budget | White Use % | White Use $ | Black Use % | Black Use $ | Hisp. Use % | Hisp. Use $ |
| “Equal Gov.t” | 3,482 | 62.1 | 2162.32 | 12.2 | 424.8 | 17.7 | 616.3 |
| Social Security | 1,262 | 84.07 | 1060.96 | 9.31 | 117.5 | 6.23 | 78.6 |
| Medicare | 505 | 76 | 383.90 | 10 | 50.5 | 9 | 45.45 |
| Medicaid | 476 | 39.06 | 185.93 | 19.9 | 94.72 | 26.43 | 125.8 |
| Welfare | 472 | 38.8 | 183.14 | 39.8 | 187.86 | 15.7 | 74.1 |
| Total | 6,197 | 64.16 | 3976 | 14.1 | 875.38 | 15.2 | 940.25 |
| (Static Mil.) | 6,197 | 69.07 | 4280 | 12.78 | 792.2 | 13.2 | 819.6 |
So as it happened, and this is something I thought going in, the race differences in government consumption are not a very big deal, and the real cause of the budgetary impacts of races is the difference in tax payment. I also found some data showing that whites made up 75% of millionaires, and I thought “ya know, based on this, whites overall probably pay around 75% of the taxes” – and I was correct.
Wage Impact of Racial Diversity
One
thing people will say in response is that white wages are jacked up by
having non-whites around. This doesn’t appear to be true when you look
at regions in the US:
Median Income and Proportion of Popoulation of Whites by Region
| Region | % White | Median Income of White Males | Median Income of White Females |
| Northeast | 67.6 | $40,435 | $25,090 |
| Midwest | 77.2 | $36,892 | $22,803 |
| South | 59.0 | $37,666 | $22,199 |
| West | 50.9 | $41,366 | $23,140 |
So a big impact doesn’t just pop out at you. And if there is a correlation between median white income in a state, or county, and the proportion of blacks and/or hispanics in that state or county, well then the next step would be to show causality.
Another
interesting thing to point out is that a Dutch meta-analysis of 384
studies on the impact of immigration on native wages in the United
States and EU countries found that a 1% increase in immigrants as part
of the labor force was associated with a 0.119% reduction in native
wages.
But
one thing to consider is correlation and causation. Just because a 1%
increase in immigration is only associated with a 0.119% decrease in
native wages doesn’t mean that the actual impact is that small.
So
we’re looking at a small negative impact on wages, not the big positive
impacts you would need for the libertarian story to hold water. I mean
it’s not stupid to believe in the absence of data; lower-skill people
come in, earn wages, white people are freed for higher-earning labor.
But it doesn’t appear to be actually happening.
If
you want to argue that the presence of blacks and hispanics around
white people drives up white wages, that’s not something that is
immediately obvious from the data, it’s only intuitive if you to hold
very pro-market priors. You need more than just “ideas that make sense”
and connect-the-dots / painting-by-numbers economic narratives that
libertarians like to spin, and then act as if they’ve actually
discovered something.
Conclusion
The
negative fiscal impact of blacks and hispanics is significant. All of
this discussion of a “national debt” and “deficit” is primarily of
function of blacks and hispanics. Without them, we would be running
budget surpluses today, even when keeping the military the same size.
Immigration Impact Meta-Analysis:
http://dspace.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/9737/04134.pdf?sequence=1
Taxes paid by brackets:
http://www.ctj.org/pdf/taxday2014.pdf
Racial groups by income bracket:
https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032014/hhinc/hinc05R.xls
Medicaid Enrollment by race, projected from these numbers:
https://www.ccwdata.org/web/guest/medicaid-charts#a2_eligibility_race_2010
Welfare use by race:
http://www.statisticbrain.com/welfare-statistics/
Medicare Enrollment:
http://kff.org/report-section/income-and-assets-of-medicare-beneficiaries-2014-2030-tables/
Social Security Enrollment by race in 2014:
https://books.google.com/books?id=72kMCAAAQBAJ&pg=PA3324&lpg=PA3324&
dq=Social+security+beneficiaries+2014+by+race+black+hispanic+white&source=bl&ots=IMvvS1GlQM&sig=Ry6RF3ZFXZ2lrIirsA2RClYSRE8&hl=en&
sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjX6uzqydDMAhVr5oMKHX_JBaQ4ChDoAQg4MAQ#v=onepage&q=Social%20security%20beneficiaries%202014%20by%20race%20black%20hispanic%20white&f=false
Total US Government Spending at all levels 2014
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/year_spending_2014USbt_17bs2n#usgs302
Total US Government Revenue of all types and at all levels 2014
http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/piechart_2014_US_total
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