Worsening Oroville Dam Crisis: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

This is as bad as it gets.  Please remember Katrina.  Remember that Sacramento was inundated during the nineteenth century.  Remember that this dam needs to do its job and now that is seriously compromised.

Get totally ready to evacuate. Pack up what you might need to take with you including some food and water.  Fill up that gas tank.  If you have no car, please grab a bus out of town or what ever and find shelter elsewhere.  The authorities should have plans in place and they should not have stood down.  Volunteer to help.

The odds against this dam failing are no longer zero or even low.  We actually have to be lucky with the rainfall.  That simply does not look good right now.

I do expect the core of the dam to survive but it looks like flank collapse is possible in the wake of a serious flood surge as all those hills and mountains empty over a very short time...

 

Worsening Oroville Dam Crisis: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

 http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2017/02/16/worsening-oroville-dam-crisis-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly/

Later tonight, the first of 3 major storms will hit the Oroville area. Will the Oroville Dam hold? We collectively pray that it does.

During the present crisis and largely due to the fact that Paul Preston and I were among the first to report on this, we have both attracted people, in an offiical capacity who want the truth to be told, even if they must keep their name secret in the procdess. Subsequently, I have managed to establish a number of off-the-record and on-the-record contacts in this process.

In this article, I am going to present three scenarios that are highly representative of the three major viewpoints of this crisis, which I am labeling the good, the bad and the ugly.

The Good

The following account represents the best case scenario regarding the present structural integrity of the dam. This information is derived from the former professional contact of the author of the following communication. As far as knowledgeable people, with regard to the prevent crisis, this is the most optimistic projection of what lies ahead for the 2 million people living between the Orovillle Dam and Sacramento.

Dave, Thank you so much for your reports!

 

My Background:

Your report on Oroville dam hits home for me. I lived in Oroville for about 7 years. I was the County Executive Director for the Dep. of Ag, Farm Service Agency for Butte County.

Yes this is a huge rice growing area and large acreage of nut and fruit orchards in the Yuba and Sutter Counties (in harms way if the dam breaks). Butte has huge orchard acres too but are north of the dam, so they would not be effected. I worked with most of the farmers there and feel for them.

I love our farmers and believe they are the “back” that is barely holding up our nation. And their backs are breaking under the load. Us younger guys who wanted to farm never got the chance since it took too much capital to get started.

There are thousands of us that would love to replace our dad’s and grandparents on our farms, but it almost impossible to make it work. I hold the government and corporate monopolies responsible for the dying of the American family farmer.

Inside Report on the Dam:

I wanted to give you some inside feedback. I have been concerned about my friends around Oroville and have been calling them. I’m currently living back where I grew up, here in Idaho. I talked with one of my friends who is close to those working on fixing the dam.

I received a good report from him. The hole that is eroding is better than they thought. The projected rate of flow coming from the next storms is less that the last one. Also, they will have the water level down about 50′ by the time the rain storm hits, so there is enough capacity to handle the new runoff based on weather predictions.

Bottom line is it seems, they may have barely got out of this major disaster for now. He also said there is major work that needs to be done to get it repaired. I think they are not “out of the woods” since there is a lot rainy season left but maybe they will get through this without a failure. I agree that it would be wise to move to higher ground and assess after this week. I have relayed that to people I know down there.

Also, he said there was some looting in Oroville right a first, but as of now no new looting. Oroville has surrounded the wagons and community leaders/police and all have done a good job to take care of my 2nd home town. He said I would be proud of they way they pitched in and are getting through this.

In spite the evil Ca leadership, good, hard working, local normal people are holding back the evil.

It causes me grief to hear how the lack of Ca State leadership has put millions of people in harms way.

I emailed your link to many of my contacts. Thank you again for your diligent research for the truth.

Mark Maurer

Remember, I am characteriing the previous account as representative of the most optimistic viewpoint with regard to the structural integrity of the dam. Yet, even in this most optimistic account, Mr. Mauer expresses some doubt as to whether the dam can survive, not just the next three storms which will point the area in the next six days, but whether the dam will survive the entire rainy season. And even in this optimistic account, the authro things the people should be moved to higher ground.

The Bad

The following account is typical of what I am getting from people who purport to have the background and experience to make informed projections regarding the saving of the Oroville Dam.

Dear Mr. Hodges,

I have been reading and listening to your accounts about the very serious situation involving the very serious situation here at the Oroville Dam.

First, the two spillways are nearly useless in terms of providing relief to the dam.  The dam is totally on its own and there is at the present moment NOTHING that can be done to improve this situation.

As falsely advertised we have not been able to bring the water levels down 50 feet which has been our goal since the onset. I would bet that this dam is going to fail. I am not sure that it will fail in the face of the upcoming storms. Over time, this dam will fail and I think this dam will do so before end of winter.

I have witnessed many heated debates about the potential need to evacuate the people who would be in the path of the oncoming waters should the dam fail. I can tell you there are two major camps. The locals think an evacuation is needed for at least 10 days so we can see how the dam is going to react to the upcoming storms. Brown’s people from the Water Dept. disagree and think that we are overreacting.  It is clear to us that the state organizations are protecting Brown’s ass and the safety of the people be damned.

Brown’s people, are replacing the locals and are making decisions which should be reserved for the local sheriff to make based on the reports we provide to him. Brown’s people are now in the way of public safety.

If this dam breaks, there will be towns that will disappear and they will not come back. 

I have seen three projections which I think we should be preparing for since so many lives are at risk.  If the dam breaks, the water would reach between 35 to 50 feet high coming out of the dam.  I have seen a computer scenario which states that the water would reach Sacramento in under two hours.  That is not enough time to evacuate. This has elements of the perfect storm because of the condition of the flood control ielements in Sacramento which is a disaster.

We should have expanded the evacuation area and it should have included Sacramento. I cannot project the loss of life but I think your figures represent the worst case scenario but they are realistic.

Please do not publish my name or email. Call me Ben. I will have more to say if you keep my name out of your reports. 

217 AM Pacific

The Ugly

I am reliant on people who want to tell their story and subsequently contact me, in regard to what they know about the condition of the dam. and what a breach would represent. Paul Preston is local and has the advantage of being able to speak directly with several experts. Based on this decided advantage, I conducted a brief interview with Paul based upon his personal observations and professional opinions of these with whom he has contact with.

You will hear in the following brief interview that Paul’s sources believe that they dam may not survive the upcoming wall of storms. Further, you will hear that politicis has reared its ugly head in te midst of this crisis when the emphasis should be on saving lives.

You just heard the new reports on the threats to the structural integrity of the dam.  There is nothing positive to say with regard to these facts.

Conclusion

In the face of the current situation, I want to reiterate the need to evacuate, immediately.  If the authorities will not act responsibly, the locals need to just pack up and leave. You can bet that if the 2 million people were all illegal aliens that Gov. Brown would have already commenced evacuations.