Quite simply a beleaguered Putin is following the oldest populist strategy of picking off neigboring lands to shore up and recruit Russian nationalism. Europe must choose to stop it or watch Russia reclaim its former colonies with military force. The problem with that disease is that no one ever knows when to stop and his successors certainly will not.
The breakup of the USSR left a lot of unfinished business on the table. Russia has now shown that it wants to redress some of these issues. The solution now is a border commission, but this must also include a powerful forward European military response to the current nonsense.
That means a powerful US - European Naval base in Romania combined with a European land force centered there. Use NATO and drag the Turks in as well. Then deploy forward support against the activities of Russian provocateurs in the Eastern Ukraine. A international border commission then becomes attractive.
This is not a small deployment either. It should include large contingents of the active armies of all NATO powers so it can never be dismissed, yet be far enough back as to avoid adventurism by either side.
Wake up Europe, Ukraine can’t wait any longer for your help
As is so often the case, the seemingly intractable conflict in Ukraine has largely fallen out of the headlines in recent months. It failed to reward continued media attention with concrete developments…
January 30 2015, 8.55am EST
As is so often the case, the seemingly intractable
conflict in Ukraine has largely fallen out of the headlines in recent
months. It failed to reward continued media attention with concrete
developments and with so much going on elsewhere, this was perhaps
predictable. But more worryingly, Ukraine seems to warrant less and less
political attention these days too.
This conflict is treated as if it is Ukraine’s problem alone, and not
Europe’s. Ukraine’s European partners seemed to feel justified in
turning their attention to other things after a ceasefire was agreed in
Minsk in September 2014, but they were wrong to think this deal meant
anything.
A hybrid war
In the hybrid war
being fought in and over Ukraine, the ceasefire agreed at Minsk would
be a joke but for the number of casualties that accrue by the day.
Donetsk airport, once a symbol of Ukraine’s progress, now testifies
to the fragility of international relations and to the need to be
vigilant for danger and threat. Russia continues to deny that it has
sent troops or military equipment but these claims no no longer, if they
ever did, stand up to scrutiny. Its campaigns of misinformation are increasingly being recognised for what they are.
The attack on the port city of Mariupol that killed around 30 people
on January 24 seems finally to have woken up the West to the failure of
the Minsk agreements. The European Council
issued a statement two days later expressing its concern and condemning
the loss of innocent lives “during the indiscriminate shelling”.
It went on to explicitly accuse Russia of supporting separatists in
the region. One might have hoped that this was a sign that European
leaders would no longer tolerate Russia’s evasiveness. Emergency
meetings held by both NATO and the EU
since then, however, suggest we can expect nothing more than an
extension of what we have seen to date. EU and NATO member states have
problems of their own and will not take a proactive stance on Ukraine.
Division and intolerance
In the weeks and months following the start of Euromaidan
in January 2014, the Weimar Triangle states (France, Germany and
Poland) sent their foreign ministers to Kiev to assist in negotiating an
end to the protests and political divisions that had riven Kiev and
other parts of the country.
As Ukraine continued to fracture and the conflict became ever more
brutal, the EU continued to support Kiev’s position, especially against
the Russians who were perceived to be, at best, failing to use their
influence with the separatist rebels in the east of Ukraine.
Waves of sanctions against Russia followed and the long-awaited Association Agreement
was signed with Ukraine to strengthen economic and political ties. NATO
was similarly supportive of the Kiev government and the US condemned
Russia in word and deed.
But the condition of Luhansk, Donetsk and now Mariupol all stand as
symbols of just how ineffective that help has been. Things are so bad
that, increasingly, a frozen conflict looks like being Ukraine’s best
hope.
Europe has other pernicious problems. Even as the upcoming Holocaust
Memorial Day directed everyone to remember the dangers of racial and
religious intolerance, the German Pegida movement captured headlines as thousands of anti-Islamist protesters took to the streets of major German cities.
The protests were fuelled by France’s own troubles following the terrible attacks in Paris.
And now Germany is faced with the prospect of tough negotiations to
prevent Greece from leaving the eurozone. Any concessions won by Greece
will have ripple effects in Spain, Portugal, Italy and elsewhere. There
will be little appetite to ramp up support for Ukraine. NATO will fare
no better unless the US picks up the bill.
The consequences of weakness
Western European states and those organisations central to their
security and prosperity have tough decisions to make. There is the
matter of ending what is unquestionably a war in Ukraine. The Minsk
agreements have not held. That must be acknowledged before the next
steps can be taken – and those steps are likely to require military aid
to Kiev.
Russia’s role in Ukraine has to be fully exposed – Moscow can no
longer be allowed to hide behind denials. If much more time is spent in
pondering the nature of Russia’s role rather than combating it, Ukraine
will lose huge swathes of its eastern territory as the separatists push
westwards to Crimea.
One can easily imagine a scenario like that being played out in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia right now, where Russia is well on course to
incorporating these former Georgian territories into the Russian
Federation.
The messages that will be sent about sovereignty, inviolability of
borders, Russian strength and Western weakness will hurtle Europe back
into a time of uncertainty, instability and danger. Time is short;
European leaders need to decide.
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