The bottom line is that Afghanistan will become a major metal
supplier to India in particular. Better this can underwrite the
building of rail access into the country to move the necesaary
freight and output. That is a major challenge but also serves to
jump start the economy overall.
Other regions are as rich but those are already being exploited and
are well on the road to being fully modernized. This happens to be a
completely new region with all the natural difficulties that that
entails.
The shock for the locals will be the advent of steady significant
paychecks producing a new class of big men in the community other
than the feudal landlords. And those not doing real work will be
retained to protect the operations. Thus a whole community suddenly
is rising in terms of material prosperity.
In that environmenmt, local conflict becomes impossible although
someone will find a way to ruin the situation if they can.
$1 Trillion Trove
of Rare Minerals Revealed Under Afghanistan
By Charles Q. Choi,
Live Science Contributor
September 04, 2014
07:35am ET
Despite being one of
the poorest nations in the world, Afghanistan may be sitting on one
of the richest troves of minerals in the world, valued at nearly $1
trillion, according to U.S. Scientists.
Afghanistan, a country
nearly the size of Texas, is loaded with minerals deposited by the
violent collision of the Indian subcontinent with Asia. The U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) began inspecting what mineral resources
Afghanistan had after U.S.-led forces drove the Taliban from power in
the country in 2004. As it turns out, the Afghanistan Geological
Survey staff had kept Soviet geological maps and reports up to 50
years old or more that hinted at a geological gold mine.
In 2006, U.S.
researchers flew airborne missions to conduct magnetic, gravity and
hyperspectral surveys over Afghanistan. The magnetic surveys probed
for iron-bearing minerals up to 6 miles (10 kilometers)
below the surface, while the gravity surveys tried to identify
sediment-filled basins potentially rich in oil and gas. The
hyperspectral survey looked at the spectrum of light reflected off
rocks to identify the light signatures unique to each mineral. More
than 70 percent of the country was mapped in just two months. [Facts
About Rare Earth Minerals (Infographic)]
The surveys verified
all the major Soviet finds. Afghanistan may hold 60 million
tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of
rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium and neodymium,
and lodes of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury and
lithium. For instance, the Khanneshin carbonatite deposit
in Afghanistan's Helmand province is valued at $89 billion, full as
it is with rare earth elements.
"Afghanistan is a
country that is very, very rich in mineral resources," Jack
Medlin, a geologist and program manager of the U.S. Geological
Survey's Afghanistan project, told Live Science. "We've
identified the potential for at least 24 world-class
mineral deposits." The scientists' work was detailed
in the Aug. 15 issue of the journal Science.
Afghanistan treasure
maps
In 2010, the USGS data
attracted the attention of the U.S. Department of Defense's Task
Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO), which is
entrusted with rebuilding Afghanistan. The task force valued
Afghanistan's mineral resources at $908 billion, while the Afghan
government's estimate is $3 trillion.
Over the past four
years, USGS and TFBSO have embarked on dozens of excursions in the
war zone to collect and analyze mineral samples to confirm the aerial
findings.
"Performing an
assessment of mineral resources in Afghanistan is not like going out
in the United States and doing normal field work," Medlin said.
"What becomes very, very obvious in Afghanistan is the huge
amount of pre-planning that has to take place in order to visit any
site in that country, such as who is going to provide security and
how much security is needed. You also have to plan how you are
actually going to get to some place, as for most of the sites in
Afghanistan, you cannot drive there — our work involved
helicopters, and for our safety, we couldn't be on the ground very
long to get samples."
The researchers' work
has helped develop what are essentially treasure maps that let mining
companies know what minerals are there, how much is there, and where
they are, all to attract bids on the rights to the deposits. The
Afghan government has already signed a 30-year, $3 billion contract
with the China Metallurgical Group, a state-owned mining enterprise
based in Beijing, to exploit the Mes Aynak copper deposit, and
awarded mining rights for the country's biggest iron deposit to a
group of Indian state-run and private companies.
"These resources
provide the potential for Afghanistan to develop its economy, to
create jobs and build infrastructure, as it goes into the future,"
Medlin said.
The mineral riches
could lift Afghanistan out of poverty and fight crime and terrorism,
said Said Mirzad, co-coordinator of the U.S. Geological Survey's
Afghanistan program.
"Terrorists in
Afghanistan exploited the misery of the local population,"
Mirzad said. "If you give the population jobs, if they could
bring bread to the table, if they had something to defend, then the
terrorists, who are very few in number, won't have sway."
Challenges to mining
However, developing a
mining industry in Afghanistan faces major challenges. "One of
the biggest challenges is security," Medlin said. "Another
challenge is the lack of infrastructure. We're talking about access
to energy, which is required to develop mines. We're talking access
to roads, railroads and so forth. We're also talking about access
to water, which is needed in most mining operations. It's all a big
challenge, but it's doable. It won't happen overnight, but it's
doable."
The USGS is currently
helping to rebuild the scientific expertise of the Afghanistan
Geological Survey, teaching the researchers modern techniques
such as remote sensing. "We want to bring the Afghanistan
Geological Survey into the 21st century," Medlin said. "The
aim is to help the Afghans develop their mineral resources in a
sustainable way."
Mining and other forms
of natural resources development can lead to graft, corruption,
social unrest and environmental degradation. Other nations rich in
resources such as Botswana, Chile and Norway could provide
Afghanistan good models to emulate in order to avoid these problems,
said Marcia McNutt, editor-in-chief of the journal Science and
director of the USGS in the summer of 2012.
For example, important
factors contributing to peace and prosperity in those nations are
strong public institutions, equitable redistribution of revenues,
environmental planning and investment in education, scientific
institutions and human resources, McNutt noted.
"The leaders of
Afghanistan will have many important decisions to make in the coming
years and decades," McNutt wrote in an editorial in the Aug. 15
issue of the journal Science. "Science has opened the door to a
new, more prosperous future. May they use this opportunity wisely."
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