China
is now entering a hard spot that all autocrats eventually find. It
is the tolerance limit between the ruler and the ruled. This is at a
time when all China is rift with local riots opposing petty local
tyrants. Attempting to impose the same doctrine in Hong Kong can
only do badly and plausibly lead to a major revolt ripping through
southern China.
Certainly
Hong Kong and Taiwan are positioned to fill all the media with the
news and comment that would support such a movement and they have
been there before. This can become a real threat. The problem of an
autocrat is that the only solutions that he ever sees is bloody or at
bestv appeasement to be followed by revenge.
Add
in a religious belief in a Greater China that can do no wrong and you
are courting a massive convulsion that can only be discharged through
the application of effective devolution that provides a second tier
of democratic control and prempts all tribal causes as well. I would
go further and apply many of the concepts of the independent nation
state to specific tribal cities in order to waste the populism that
is engenders.
All
this can cement the importance of a central government and what must
also soon be their elected system.
China to Hong Kong:
You Can Vote, We Select the Candidates
China fears democracy
contagion to the mainland if true universal suffrage were allowed in
Hong Kong
By George Chen |
September 17, 2014
Seventeen years after
taking control of Hong Kong, pledging universal suffrage for the
territory, Beijing has made one-person one-vote meaningless by giving
itself sole prerogative over choosing the candidates. As Hong Kong
reels from the shock of this reversal of democratization trend, the
international community wonders about Hong Kong’s future and its
standing in the eyes of the world.
In 1997 Hong Kong
returned to the People’s Republic of China with the promise of a
gradual transition to a representative government. In 2010 China
raised hopes saying that in the election of 2017 universal suffrage
could be introduced, with details to be worked out later. Li Fei,
senior official of China’s National People’s Congress, unveiled
the plan on Aug. 31, and the news stunned Hong Kong: China would
effectively pre-screen candidates for the position of chief of Hong
Kong and limit final candidates to two or three, thus denying many of
the 7 million residents in Hong Kong ability to vote for a candidate
from a slate they liked.
This move has dented
international credibility of China, already the world’s second
largest economy, which has pledged to be a more responsible rising
power on the world stage. If Beijing can so easily break its promise
for Hong Kong, then the rest of the world must ponder whether the
Chinese government will live up to other international commitments.
Long before the 1997
handover, the official People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of China’s
Communist Party, published an article, on March 18, 1993, quoting Lu
Ping, then the top official in charge of Hong Kong and Macau affairs:
“How Hong Kong develops its democracy in the future is completely
within the sphere of the autonomy of Hong Kong. The central
government will not interfere.”
‘One Two’ Near
Collapse
More than 20 years on
after Lu Ping’s promise to Hong Kong, the “One country, two
systems” scheme designed by late paramount Chinese leader Deng
Xiaoping is now at the risk of collapse due largely to increasing
interference, directly or indirectly, by Beijing in various aspects
from local elections of legislators to freedom of the press, for
decades widely considered one of Hong Kong’s core values alongside
the rule of law.
The “one country,
two systems” scheme implied that, while mainland China remained
socialist, capitalist democracy could coexist in other parts of China
as in Taiwan after unification with the communist China. The
Taiwanese government has repeatedly rejected such a political concept
since 1971 when the United Nations recognized the People’s Republic
as the sole government of China and Taiwan’s leaders refused a
dual-representation deal.
The city’s
pro-democracy Occupy Central movement—fighting for “one person,
one vote” and universal suffrage in line with international
standards rather than with so-called Chinese characteristics that
allow Beijing to pre-screen candidates first—staged a landmark
protest against Beijing’s announcement for the 2017 election.
Historically, Hong
Kong has been more than just a financial center, playing key roles in
political reforms and developments in modern Chinese history. Hong
Kong was at one time the home for Sun Yat-san, the founding father of
Republican China and an alumnus of the University of Hong Kong, one
of the oldest and most prestigious academic institutions in Asia.
Many Chinese officials and scholars once expected that Hong Kong
could be a role model for the future development of relations between
Mainland China and Taiwan in the hope that the two might reunite
someday similar to the “One country, two systems” arrangement for
Hong Kong.
With Beijing’s
stance to allow only two or three candidates—most likely candidates
whom the Party can trust with loyalty to the central government—to
run for Hong Kong chief executive in its 2017 election, the last and
perhaps most possible wish for a progressive approach to grow
democratic values on Chinese soil is fading away.
Online reactions from
the younger generation of Taiwan to Beijing’s toughest-ever control
of Hong Kong’s electoral reform show that China may have to work
harder to win the minds and hearts of Taiwanese people in the hope of
someday reuniting the self-ruling island with its motherland.
Beijing is insistent
on blocking the universal suffrage. Perhaps China has deeper concern
about Western-style democracy taking root in Hong Kong, on Chinese
soil, and acting as a beacon for supporters of democracy in mainland
China, in particular those most developed cities including Guangzhou
and Shanghai where the fast-increasing middle class has a strong
desire for social justice and political reform to protect interests
of local residents. China, under the leadership of Party leader Xi
Jinping, has embarked on an anti-corruption drive to purify the
Communist Party so as to prolong its rule over China.
However, on the other
hand, the government also silences dissenting intellectuals and
pro-democracy activists, and suppresses Internet freedoms with the
rationale of maintaining domestic peace and stability. Given the
porous nature of communication between Hong Kong and the mainland,
freedom granted to Hong Kong people to elect candidates not vetted by
Beijing would have a subversive effect on China.
Yet, frustrating Hong
Kong people’s aspirations by denying them universal suffrage China
promised may not bring the peace and stability that everybody
desires.
Not Just Another
Chinese City
The Occupy Central
movement, which threatens to block the business district, could pose
a lose-lose situation for both Beijing and Hong Kong. The strength of
Occupy Central shouldn’t be downplayed.
The movement is not
just about how many people occupy the streets physically, but also
sends a clear signal through Hong Kong society and Beijing that there
are indeed individuals who will fight very hard to defend the meaning
of Hong Kong’s core values as listed in the text of the
Sino-British joint declaration—”Rights and freedoms, including
those of the person, of speech, of the press, of assembly, of
association, of travel, of movement, of correspondence, of strike, of
choice of occupation, of academic research, and of religious belief
will be ensured by law in the Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region. Private property, ownership of enterprises, legitimate right
of inheritance and foreign investment will be protected by law”—what
being a Hong Kong citizen really means.
Professor Benny Tai at
the University of Hong Kong, also a key leader and co-founder of
Occupy Central, declared that the movement already marked a brand new
“era of civil disobedience” for Hong Kong, and this was just a
beginning. The political road for Hong Kong over the next few years,
if not decades, could be far bumpier.
Many in the West as
well as on the mainland often ask, “After all those debates,
frustrations and protests, what do Hong Kong people really want Hong
Kong to be?” Former Hong Kong Chief Secretary Anson Chan’s
response is that Hong Kong shouldn’t become “just another Chinese
city,” at least not for now. Hong Kong can still make a huge
difference for itself and China on the world stage if its people can
continue to stand by the core values of the society.
Beijing’s
recommended “universal suffrage with Chinese
characteristics”—limiting the slate of candidates to those who
will abide by the Communist Party’s dictates—would result in Hong
Kong becoming “just another Chinese city,” as feared by Chan. The
people of Hong Kong want to retain their own identity and shape their
destiny even though the city is part of sovereign China.
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